在快速流变的世界里，谁也无法基于当下作出对未来的判断；即便这个时代最厉害的人，也同样被局限 在这个时代里。只有将时间拉长，去对话几百年甚至上千年前的人、去对话宇宙万事万物，才能突破我 们被局限的认知，进而提升认知。而对话的工具就是——读书。 你能看到的各行各业的聪明人都有一个共通点，就是酷爱读书、坚持阅读。做投资更需要通过读书，从 更长远的时空来观察事物，找出变化中的不变，深刻认知事物的第一性原理，发现投资价值。 霍华德・马克斯在《价值演算》中直言："投资的成败主要取决于对盈利能力的判断是否正确。"而这种 精准判断的内核，正是认知的深度。查理・芒格亦曾强调，"配得上"想要的事物，本质是让认知匹配价 值。 《创新者的窘境》 作者：克莱顿·克里斯坦森（Clayton M. Christensen） 推荐语：作为哈佛商学院教授，克里斯坦森通过硬盘、汽车等行业案例，提出"颠覆性创新"理论。他指 出，领先企业往往因过度关注主流市场需求、依赖延续性创新，而忽视低端或新兴市场的破坏性技术 （比如更简单、更便宜的产品），最终被颠覆。 对创投机构而言，这本书提供了反直觉的投资视角——真正的颠覆者未必是技术最先进的企业，而是能 ...

明天凌晨美联储议息会议，市场预期是降息25基点，如果降50是超预期，维持25基点的各方面，市场已经消化掉当下利好反而不会有什么异动。所以在今天 说复盘其实没有意义，因为最大的变量在凌晨才会出现。今天机器人涨得不错，本质上还是人工智能分支，今天才听说西数HDD涨价了，我觉得太迟了， 其实我也买硬盘的需求，周末的时候就遇上坐地起价的情况，而且B站专家分析一般硬盘涨价不会马上停止，所以近期要买什么，其实就很清楚了，现在炒 的是国际反内卷，以前1T50块的好日子没有了，现在1T最低要100甚至150元，可想而知市场的需求是多大，这些买家现在别说机械硬盘了，固态硬盘也看 上了，到底那个行业可以不计成本的大量采购硬盘呢？不管明天到底要降多少，我还是继续围绕主线人工智能发掘题材。至于硬盘涨价到底是利好啥，我觉 得没有什么好争议的，那就不分析了。 热点分析：【人气与风口】 今天机器人27家涨停无疑是最强的，其次是ST，ST股与昨天涨停家数区别不大，所以昨天说庄家是在防御，今天依然是这样的。为什么这样说？大家看 看，今天除了机器人，在88+涨停的情况下，还有啥热点？没了！物流4，新能源4，地产4。是的，只要你对数字有点敏感，也 ...

Core Insights - A significant statistic reveals that 63% of companies fail due to being trapped in mainstream value networks, while those choosing edge value networks have a success rate of 37% [1][5][9] - The competition among companies is not merely about products or technologies, but rather a battle between value networks [1][8] Group 1: Course Overview - The course titled "Modeling Competition: Deconstructing Value Networks and Reconstructing Innovation Dimensions" will be led by Professor Li Shanyou, focusing on a methodology developed over 10 years of research [2][30] - The course aims to provide actionable competitive modeling methodologies for decision-makers and entrepreneurs facing growth challenges [2][5] Group 2: Key Values of the Course - The course addresses the growth dilemma, emphasizing that 63% of companies fail due to their choice of value networks, rather than technological or managerial shortcomings [5][6] - It challenges the conventional understanding of competition, asserting that the real competition occurs between value networks rather than individual companies [8][9] Group 3: Value Network Competition Theory - The course will explore the concept of disruptive innovation, highlighting that disruption arises from the combination of new technologies and new markets [10][21] - It will provide insights into how companies can transition from being disrupted to actively disrupting their competitors by understanding their value network positioning [10][21] Group 4: Course Content and Methodology - The course will utilize the "One Thinking, Three Stages of Innovation" framework to help participants build competitive models and identify breakthrough points [14][15] - Participants will learn to identify key market entry points in edge markets through the lens of disruptive innovation [17][18] Group 5: Target Audience - The course is designed for various stakeholders, including corporate decision-makers, entrepreneurs, innovation managers, and those seeking cognitive upgrades [27][30] - It aims to equip participants with tools to diagnose their company's value network and develop strategies for competitive advantage [28][30]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - Demand for NVIDIA's B200 chips continues to exceed supply capabilities, indicating growth potential in upcoming quarters [1] - Despite NVIDIA's increasing production capacity, supply for B200-based PCIe solutions remains tight, with a preference for shipping the GB200 series [1] - This strategic shift may benefit model builders, NeoCloud, supercomputing centers, and sovereign data centers that require enhanced network capabilities [1] Group 2: Hard Drive Market Dynamics - Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate Technology (STX) are expected to benefit from increasing demand due to limited production capacity and no current expansion plans in the industry [2] - The current advantage of perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) technology may provide short-term benefits to Western Digital, while Seagate is shifting more capacity to heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology [2] - The report highlights Asian fund managers' unexpected reaction to the recent strong performance of the U.S. stock market, expressing concerns over potential policy risks [2]