文/梧桐兄弟 单位：万元 | 公司简称 | 拟上板块 | 主营业务 | 2024年营收 | 2024年净利润 | 保荐/律所/会所 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 洛轴股份 | 创业板 | 轴承及相关零部件 | 467.494.68 | 17.948.33 | 中信建投/康达/立信 | | 频准激光 | 科创板 | 激光器产品 | 29,185.72 | 11,143.08 | 中信建投/浙江天册/中汇 | | 粤芯半导体 | 创业板 | 特色工艺晶圆代工 | 168.132.90 | -250.338.60 | 广发证券/康达/致同 | | 汉诺医疗 | 科创板 | 体外膜肺氧合 (ECMO) 系统 | 4.930.88 | -18.279.37 | 中信证券/锦天城/中汇 | | 九安智能 | 创业板 | 智能视觉产品制造 商等 | 77,969.17 | 10.153.86 | 申万宏源/中伦/天职 | | 猎奇智能 | 创业板 | 高端智能装备制造 商 | 54.292.61 | 17.426.02 | 国泰海通/世纪同仁/容诚 | | 高凯技术 | ...

Economic Overview - The Chinese government has implemented proactive macro policies to address economic challenges, which have played a significant role in stabilizing economic operations [2] - Recent economic data indicates a positive trend in various sectors, reflecting a shift towards a more advanced and innovative economy [2] Investment Growth - High-tech industry investment has maintained growth, with the information services sector and aerospace manufacturing seeing year-on-year increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [4] - The total value of China's goods trade reached 41.2 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, consistent with the growth rate from the previous ten months [4] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.56067 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [6] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery in the service sector [7] Innovation and Technology - Sales revenue in the high-tech industry increased by 14.7% year-on-year, with smart device manufacturing seeing a remarkable growth of 28.2% [12] - The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 14.907 million and 14.78 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 31.4% and 31.2% [13] Consumer Policies - The effects of consumption promotion policies are evident, with sales in the home appliance and communication retail sectors increasing by 26.5% and 20.3% year-on-year, respectively [15] Energy Transition - The green transition in energy structure is accelerating, with sales revenue from wind power and solar power increasing by 16.8% and 35.7% year-on-year, while thermal power sales revenue declined by 7.2% [16] - The express delivery business volume reached a record high, surpassing 800 billion items for the year as of November 30 [16]

11月份，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国 务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国 统一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格继 续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上 全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其 中，秋粮产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上 年增加158.4亿斤，增长1.2%。粮食播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩， 比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增 长1.1%。 二、工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业增长较快 11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。分三大门类看，采矿业增 加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长4.3%。 ...

（原标题：内需"双引擎"扩容提质 增长新动能释放新潜力——2025年终经济观察） 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。在高度不确定性的外部环境下，由消费和投资组成的内需"双引擎"继 续推动国民经济运行保持平稳，且消费结构持续升级，投资结构不断优化，为今后释放内需潜力积蓄动 能。在受访专家学者看来，若进一步加大扩内需政策力度，内需潜力有望持续释放，更大程度发挥消费 和投资对经济增长的拉动作用。 服务消费扩容提质 在提振消费专项行动各项措施作用下，今年以来商品消费稳步扩大，同时旅游出行、文化体育、网上消 费持续活跃，为消费扩大注入新的动力。今年前10个月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.3%，服务零 售额增长5.3%。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》已将"居民消费率明显提高，内需 拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强"作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标。尽管有效需求不足的 局面仍有待破解，但今年以来的消费结构升级与投资结构优化，将为"十五五"开局之年积蓄动能。 中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工近日表示，明年国内大市场潜力将进一步释放。居民消费能 力和消费结构 ...

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.9% [1] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size grew by 7.2% [1] - The overall economic performance remains stable with a focus on high-quality development and structural adjustments [1] Consumption Trends - New consumption formats, models, and scenarios are expanding, with digital, green, and smart product consumption rapidly growing [2] - From January to October, online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.2% of total retail sales [2] Investment Insights - Effective investment is being expanded in key areas and weak links, with significant growth in high-tech sectors [2] - Investment in the aerospace and aircraft manufacturing industry increased by 19.7% year-on-year from January to October [2] Export Performance - From January to October, the export value of electromechanical products accounted for 60.7% of total exports, indicating strong support for foreign trade [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is steadily moving towards mid-to-high-end production, with the added value of equipment manufacturing above designated size increasing by 9.5% [2] - Equipment manufacturing contributed 58.7% to the growth of industrial added value above designated size [2] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries are increasingly playing a leading role, with rapid development in the digital economy and green low-carbon transformation [3] - From January to October, the added value of digital industry manufacturing increased by 9.5%, while smart device manufacturing and electronic components manufacturing grew by 11.1% and 12.3%, respectively [3] - The transition from old to new driving forces is ongoing, with a positive trend towards high-quality economic development [3]

Economic Overview - In October, some economic indicators showed a downward trend due to last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand [2][6] - Despite the downturn, there were positive signs such as a rebound in service retail sales driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating significant consumption potential [2][6] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for October grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest monthly growth this year [6][12] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-end production, with equipment manufacturing increasing by 8%, outpacing overall industrial growth [6][10] Investment Trends - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7%, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [7][14] - High-tech sectors such as aerospace and information services saw significant investment growth, with aerospace manufacturing up by 19.7% and information services up by 32.7% [7][12] Trade Dynamics - In October, the total import and export volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [8][9] - The trade growth slowdown was attributed to last year's high base, with some exports delayed from September due to typhoons [9][10] Policy Measures - The government is implementing policies to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment [3][13] - Recent policies include the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the acceleration of local government bond usage to support effective investment [13][14] Economic Outlook - Despite the challenges, the overall economic operation remains stable, with a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [12][15] - Analysts suggest that additional policy measures may be necessary to counteract weak demand and support economic recovery, particularly in the real estate sector [14][15]

Economic Overview - In October, economic indicators showed a downward trend due to factors such as last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand [1][4] - Despite the downturn, there were positive signs in the economy, particularly in service retail sales, which rebounded due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating significant consumption potential [1][11] Production and Investment - The industrial added value and service production index both recorded their lowest monthly growth rates of the year in October, with industrial added value growing by 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [5][11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [6][12] Trade and Exports - In October, the total import and export volume grew by only 0.1%, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4%, reflecting a significant drop in growth compared to previous months [7][11] Policy Measures - The State Council is implementing measures to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to stimulate consumption and improve project funding arrangements [2][12] - Recent policies include the accelerated deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the utilization of 500 billion yuan in local government debt limits to boost effective investment [12][14] Economic Challenges and Outlook - The economy faces challenges from weak domestic demand and structural issues, necessitating stronger growth policies to reverse the current downward trend and promote recovery [13][14] - Despite the pressures, achieving the annual growth target of around 5% remains likely, with expectations for further fiscal and monetary policy support in the coming months [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - China's fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, primarily influenced by real estate development investment, but industrial investment and infrastructure projects showed strong growth, indicating significant investment potential in the future [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Excluding real estate development, project investment increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 4% year-on-year, while high-tech service industry investment rose by 6.1%, highlighting these sectors as core drivers of stable investment [1]. - Private capital is experiencing a "structural shift," with private investment in water management and air transport increasing by 42.4% and 24.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a flow of capital towards policy-supported and stable return sectors [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that investment growth will continue to be supported by multiple factors, including an expected increase in funding for large-scale equipment updates and improvements in credit sources for real estate companies [3]. - The ongoing implementation of "two new" and "two heavy" policies, along with the development of green energy, is expected to further stimulate investment growth [3]. - Future investment growth will rely on new productive forces and addressing gaps in people's livelihoods, with significant investments anticipated in areas like artificial intelligence chips and semiconductors [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Investment is expected to remain a crucial engine for economic growth, with anticipated stabilization and recovery in the fourth quarter, contributing to the optimization of supply structure and enhancing the quality of economic circulation [4].

Core Viewpoint - China's fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, primarily due to the impact of real estate development investment, but industrial investment and infrastructure projects showed steady growth, indicating significant investment potential and solid support for future growth [1][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - Excluding real estate development investment, project investment increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Manufacturing investment grew by 4% year-on-year, while high-tech service industry investment rose by 6.1%, becoming key drivers of stable investment [1] - Investment in information services and aerospace manufacturing increased by 33.1% and 20.6% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a significant trend of technological empowerment in industrial development [1] Group 2: Structural Changes in Investment - Equipment and tool purchase investment led the overall growth with a 14.0% year-on-year increase, driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies [2] - Private capital is experiencing a "structural shift," with private investment in water management and air transport growing by 42.4% and 24.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a flow of capital towards policy-supported and stable return sectors [2] Group 3: Future Investment Outlook - Analysts predict that investment growth will continue to be supported by multiple factors, including increased funding for large-scale equipment updates and improved credit sources for real estate companies [3] - The ongoing implementation of "two new" and "two heavy" policies, along with the development of green energy, is expected to further stimulate investment growth [3] - Future investment growth will rely on new productive forces and addressing social needs, with significant investments in areas like artificial intelligence chips and semiconductors [3]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a slight decline in fixed asset investment in the first three quarters of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while investment excluding real estate development grew by 3.0% [1][2] - Investment in high-tech sectors continues to rise, reflecting strong government support for innovation-driven development strategies, with significant growth in information services, aerospace, and computer manufacturing [1][5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 371,535 billion yuan, with the first industry investment growing by 4.6%, the second industry by 6.3%, and the third industry declining by 4.3% [2][3] - Notable increases in specific sectors include forestry investment up by 40.0%, aquaculture by 12.9%, and food manufacturing by 10.8%, indicating a trend towards consumer upgrades [2][3] Infrastructure and Private Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to overall investment growth, with private investment in infrastructure rising to 20.0% of total infrastructure investment [2][6] - Significant growth in private investment was observed in water management (42.4%) and air transport (24.4%) [2] Policy Impact and Economic Structure - The effects of policy measures, such as the promotion of large-scale equipment updates, have led to a notable increase in equipment investment, which grew by 14.0% year-on-year [3][6] - The decline in third industry investment suggests ongoing adjustments in the service sector, with potential for future growth driven by digital economy developments [3][5] High-Quality Development and Innovation - Investment in high-tech industries is leading overall investment trends, with industrial investment growing by 6.4% and high-tech service investment by 6.1% [5][6] - The World Intellectual Property Organization's report indicates that China is expected to enter the top ten in global innovation indices by 2025, highlighting the country's advancements in technology and innovation [5]