Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June after four consecutive months of decline, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [2][3] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) continued to face downward pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting weak domestic demand and excess supply in the market [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in CPI was less severe than seasonal trends, with food prices dropping by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices saw a slight increase due to rising international oil prices [3][4] - Certain consumer goods, such as gold and platinum jewelry, experienced significant price increases of 39.2% and 15.9% year-on-year, respectively, driven by changes in international commodity prices [2][4] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies is expected to support price stability and recovery in various sectors, including automotive and household appliances [1][5] Group 3 - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with pressures from domestic demand weakness and external factors such as tariffs and slowing foreign demand [4][5] - Some industries, particularly high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, indicating potential growth opportunities [5] - The overall economic environment remains complex, but macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating consumption are anticipated to gradually restore domestic demand [5]

7月9日，国家统计局最新公布！ 统计局数据显示，6月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比由上月下降转为上涨0.1%，环比降幅比上月收窄，扣 除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，创近14个月以来新高。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比降幅 与上月相同，同比降幅扩大，但部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。 值得一提的是，部分供需关系改善的行业，治理企业低价无序竞争力度加大，新能源汽车、光伏设备零部件和 锂离子电池等制造价格改善。 CPI同比结束持续4个月的下降走势 6月份，CPI同比上涨0.1%。其中食品价格下降0.3%，非食品价格上涨0.1%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，CPI同比在连续下降4个月后转涨，这主要受工业消费品价格有所 回升影响。 6月份工业消费品价格同比降幅由上月的1.0%收窄至0.5%，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月减少约0.18个百分点。 其中，受国际大宗商品价格变动影响，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨39.2%和15.9%，合计影响CPI同比 上涨约0.21个百分点；汽车价格降幅逐步收窄，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格同比分别下降3.4%和2.5%，降 幅分别为近28 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 04 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | 短期进出口情况有所改善——5 月 PMI 点 评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 全球产业链竞争加剧，外需变化快于预期。 | 东方战略周观察：美欧贸易摩擦新动态 | 2025-05-29 | | --- | --- | ...

作 者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠强 资深高级宏观分析师 以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 屠强等 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 3月1日，国家统计局公布2月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.1%；非制造业PMI为 50.4%、前值50.2%。 核心观点：春节扰动结束，2月PMI温和回升，结构上"强弱"分化特征明显。 2 月 PMI 修复偏弱，但剔除供应商配送指标后，实际 PMI 呈现温和复苏的态势。 PMI 为环比指标， 反映的是本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；因此 1 月受春节返乡影响 PMI 大幅回落后， 2 月 PMI 回升至 50% 以上为大概率事件。而今年春节后复工进度较慢， 2 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.2% 、 仅高于荣枯线 0.2pct ，整体恢复较温和。但供应商配货指数采用逆指标统计，剔除其影响后，实际 PMI 表现较积极，边际上行 1.3pct 至 50.5% 。 PMI 分项修复呈现"强弱"分化特征，生产、内需修复明显加快，而新出口订单指数仍在收缩区间。 2 月，伴随复工复产推进，生产指数 ...