得知2002年诺贝尔经济学奖得主丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）以安乐死的方式离世的消息，是在去年3月底一个清冷的早晨。那本早已翻旧的《思考， 快与慢》依旧搁在我的书桌，书页折了多处，有些页码边缘微微卷起，使得整本书膨胀得有点像发酵过的面包。是的，对我来说，卡尼曼先生，这位远在彼 岸的智者，就是我最重要的一位"知识面包师"。我关于行为经济学那点粗浅的认知骨架，很大程度上是啃了他的几本著作，尤其是这本"面包书"，才勉强支 撑起来的。它填充了我对"人如何决策"这一古老命题理解上的巨大空洞。 《思考，快与慢》 这岂非正应和了莎士比亚在《皆大欢喜》中的喟叹："世界不过是一座舞台，所有的男男女女只是些演员"？我们这些匆忙登台的演员，在名为"生活"的宏大 剧目中，何尝不都在被这些根植于大脑深处的认知偏差所导演，上演着一幕幕不自知的悲喜剧？ [ 美 ] 丹尼尔 · 卡尼曼 | 著 江生 于华 | 译 中信出版集团 2025 年 4 月 更重要的是，正是他交给我的底层逻辑，触发了一系列难以抑制的新思考，催生出一种近乎迫切的表达欲。10多年前，在经历了一段职业转换和思想的倦怠 期后，我本已主动停掉了在《北京青年 ...

Core Insights - The primary need for investors hiring investment managers is to avoid mistakes and manage emotional impulses rather than solely to maximize returns [3][28] - Long-term investment success requires a unique approach, while excessive differentiation can lead to failure [3] - The concept of "margin of safety" is crucial, allowing for potential errors by purchasing assets at a sufficiently low price [3][8] - Maintaining a calm, open mindset and readiness to act during challenging times can provide a competitive advantage [3][50] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Seth Klarman emphasizes the importance of risk control over absolute returns, noting that Baupost has only experienced five years of negative returns in its 42-year history, with a maximum drawdown of 12% [5][74] - The investment strategy focuses on constructing a portfolio that effectively protects against downside risks, including cash reserves and prioritizing high-quality debt instruments [10][72] - Klarman's approach to value investing has evolved, now considering not just tangible asset values but also the potential for value realization and market recognition [8][13] Group 2: Decision-Making Process - Baupost's investment decision-making involves multiple team members, including partners and analysts, who rigorously evaluate potential investments [34][39] - Discussions often center around risk assessment, with team members encouraged to challenge assumptions and consider potential pitfalls [41][46] - The culture at Baupost promotes open dialogue, allowing team members to express differing opinions without fear of repercussions [45][46] Group 3: Market Conditions and Opportunities - Klarman notes that the current market environment, characterized by rising interest rates, presents both challenges and opportunities, particularly in the private credit sector [66][68] - The firm is currently focusing on distressed assets and credit opportunities, with a significant portion of its portfolio allocated to these areas [62][63] - The investment strategy remains flexible, adapting to market conditions without adhering to a rigid allocation framework [61][62] Group 4: Psychological Factors in Investing - Baupost places significant emphasis on psychological factors in investment decisions, aiming to avoid panic and emotional reactions during market downturns [47][50] - Klarman believes that maintaining composure and an open mindset during adverse market conditions can lead to advantageous investment opportunities [50][52] - The firm encourages a culture of resilience, where team members are trained to recover from investment setbacks and maintain a long-term perspective [71][72]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of intelligence from early mammals to modern AI, emphasizing that intelligence can compensate for physical limitations and that historical events significantly influence the development of intelligence [3][4][11]. Group 1: Evolution of Intelligence - The first breakthrough in brain evolution occurred 550 million years ago, allowing organisms to differentiate between stimuli and develop basic emotional responses with only a few hundred neurons [4]. - The second breakthrough involved the advanced use of dopamine in vertebrates, enabling them to quantify the likelihood of rewards and develop curiosity through complex actions [5]. - The third breakthrough was the development of the neocortex in mammals, which allowed for imagination and planning, akin to slow thinking as described by Daniel Kahneman [5][6]. Group 2: AI and Intelligence - AI has significantly improved through reinforcement learning, which rewards processes rather than just outcomes, allowing for learning from each step rather than waiting for the end result [5]. - Current AI models, particularly large language models, demonstrate an understanding of language beyond mere memorization, indicating a significant advancement in AI capabilities [7][10]. - The potential future breakthroughs in AI may involve combining human and AI intelligence, enabling AI to simulate multiple worlds or understand complex rules in novel ways [11][12]. Group 3: Historical Context of Breakthroughs - Historical events, such as the asteroid impact that led to the extinction of dinosaurs, have provided opportunities for the evolution of mammals and the development of intelligence [3][15]. - The article suggests that significant changes in the world often arise from unexpected and radical shifts rather than gradual improvements [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading "Security Analysis" by Benjamin Graham, highlighting it as a must-read for every investor, especially those interested in value investing [2][6]. Summary by Sections Importance of "Security Analysis" - "Security Analysis" is regarded as a "bible" of value investing, essential for anyone wishing to pursue this investment strategy [6]. - The book provides a clear direction for investors, emphasizing that effort alone does not guarantee success in investing; the right approach is crucial [6][7]. Investment vs. Speculation - The first chapter of "Security Analysis" distinguishes between investment and speculation, stating that investors focus on risk and return, while speculators are influenced by market and price factors [8][9]. - Investors should concentrate on the intrinsic value of a company, rather than external factors like management actions or market liquidity [10]. Key Concepts Introduced by Graham - Graham introduced the concept of "margin of safety," which is defined as buying an asset for less than its intrinsic value, ensuring a buffer against uncertainties [10]. - The book also discusses cash flow as a critical measure for determining an asset's profitability, advocating for a cautious approach to estimating intrinsic value [10]. Updates in the New Edition - The new edition of "Security Analysis" has been expanded by approximately 150,000 words, bringing the total to 1.1 million words, and includes contributions from several prominent value investors [13][16]. - The updated version incorporates modern insights, including behavioral finance concepts like "anchoring effect," which explains why many struggle with value investing despite its apparent simplicity [14]. Broader Applicability - The book's new content demonstrates that value investing principles are applicable not only in the U.S. but may also be more effective in the Chinese market [15]. - The enduring relevance of "Security Analysis" is highlighted, as it continues to provide foundational knowledge for successful investing nearly 90 years after its original publication [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the annual 618 shopping festival, emphasizing the opportunity for consumers to purchase books at discounted prices, particularly in the investment and finance category [1][2]. Summary by Sections Promotional Offers - The company offers limited-time discounts on investment-related books during the 618 event, with discounts starting at 50% and additional coupon stacking available, allowing for a maximum discount of 130 on purchases over 300 [4]. Featured Books - The promotional book list includes six notable titles: 1. "The Active Fund Investment Guide" 2. "The Index Fund Investment Guide" 3. "Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment" 4. "The Long-Term Stock Market Secret" 5. "The Trillion Dollar Index" 6. "Patient Capital" [6][16][20][26][31]. Book Summaries - "The Active Fund Investment Guide" provides a comprehensive introduction to active funds, including how to buy and sell them, aimed at helping readers build their investment systems [9]. - "The Index Fund Investment Guide" is suitable for beginners, detailing 256 mainstream index funds and investment strategies for ordinary investors [12][13]. - "Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment" outlines a detailed plan for regular investment, particularly beneficial for salaried individuals with consistent cash flow [16]. - "The Long-Term Stock Market Secret" is a globally recognized investment classic, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term wealth accumulation method, while also addressing the risks involved [20][21]. - "The Trillion Dollar Index" narrates the history of index funds and features insights from renowned investors, making it an engaging read [26][28]. - "Patient Capital" shares stories of long-term investment pioneers, providing lessons on managing family assets effectively [31][32]. Additional Recommendations - The article also mentions various other investment and finance-related books, including titles focused on financial literacy for children, family financial planning, and classic investment strategies, catering to a wide audience from beginners to seasoned investors [35][39][45][49].