行 华福证券 游戏Ⅱ 2026 年 02 月 10 日 业 研 究 游戏Ⅱ 叠纸：不靠沉迷的《恋与》为何留存稳定？ 投资要点： 摘要核心句 行 业 专 题 报 告 我们认为，"恋与"系列的成功并非传统意义上的内容爆款或沉 迷型设计，而是通过"关系连续性 + 陪伴系统 + 关键情绪节点付费" 重构了手游留存与变现范式：其用户粘性并不依赖高频在线，而建立 在长期情感关系之上，从而形成"DAU 不极端、但收入长期稳定"的 反直觉结构。该模式本质是一种低频但可反复激活的内容消费模型， 使产品生命周期显著长于行业平均，并为女性向及情绪价值型游戏打 开了可复制的商业路径。 投资建议 我们建议重点关注具备以下能力的厂商： 该类公司具备更长生命周期、更平滑收入曲线及更高低频用户价 值，对应估值应从"爆款概率模型"转向"关系资产复利模型"。建 议中长期关注女性向、陪伴型互动内容及情绪消费赛道中已完成产品 验证、且具备持续内容供给能力的头部厂商。 风险提示 内容节奏与情绪节点失误，可能削弱用户长期陪伴感。 新品复制难度与单 IP 依赖，可能导致新品表现不稳定。 用户偏好变化风险，边际吸引力可能逐步下降。 行业与政策环境收紧，或抬 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article emphasizes the importance of understanding demand over merely focusing on technology, as highlighted by Peter Drucker [1] - MiniMax's IPO performance was exceptional, with significant market interest from top global investors like Tencent, Alibaba, Sequoia, GIC, and South African pension funds [7][8] - The article contrasts MiniMax's rapid commercialization strategy targeting the consumer market with Zhizhu's more traditional B2B approach, indicating a fundamental difference in their business models [9][10] Group 2 - MiniMax's Talkie application, launched in June 2023, has generated substantial revenue, contributing 63.7% of the company's total revenue, with projections of nearly $36 million in the first nine months of 2025 [15] - The average age of MiniMax's team is post-95, showcasing the potential of young talent in driving innovation and success in the tech industry [20][29] - The article outlines three key insights for ordinary individuals: the significance of emotional value in products, the necessity for technology to serve practical scenarios, and the advantages of youth in the AI era [31][38] Group 3 - The article suggests that the recent IPOs of MiniMax and Zhizhu signal a strong confidence in the AI sector, with a focus on companies that can successfully commercialize their technologies [40][42] - It emphasizes that the true benchmark for success is not merely going public but achieving profitability and sustainable growth [47][48] - Companies that can identify real user needs and generate genuine revenue will become increasingly valuable in the market [49]

Core Viewpoint - Migu Video is facing significant backlash after losing its broadcasting rights for the CBA league, leading to customer dissatisfaction and legal issues related to unauthorized content creation [2][4][21]. Group 1: Legal Issues and Customer Complaints - Migu Video acknowledged that its fan-made video using "Love and Producer" constituted unfair competition, resulting in a lawsuit with the game developer that ended in Migu's apology [2][4]. - Customers who purchased CBA annual subscriptions expressed frustration over the lack of refunds after Migu lost broadcasting rights, claiming their consumer rights were violated [2][6][10]. - The company has not provided satisfactory responses to refund requests, with some users reporting long wait times for resolution [10][11]. Group 2: Impact of Losing CBA Rights - The loss of CBA broadcasting rights has led to a decline in user engagement, as many subscribers feel there is no reason to continue using Migu Video without access to CBA games [5][11]. - Migu Video attempted to compensate for the loss by promoting alternative sports content, but user feedback indicates these offerings do not adequately replace the absence of CBA broadcasts [11][12]. Group 3: Membership and Service Issues - Migu Video's membership structure has been criticized for being overly complex, with users feeling trapped in a "membership maze" that requires additional payments for accessing content on different devices [12][14]. - The company’s approach to membership services has led to dissatisfaction among users, who desire clearer and more respectful service offerings [17][21]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Challenges - Migu Video's user base is reportedly declining, with active users at approximately 17.93 million, significantly lower than competitors like Tencent Video and iQIYI [19][20]. - Analysts suggest that Migu's reliance on purchasing content rights rather than developing original content has left it vulnerable in a competitive market where exclusive content is crucial for survival [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Migu Video is facing significant backlash due to losing its CBA broadcasting rights and a recent legal dispute over unauthorized content creation, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and potential loss of subscribers [2][3][19]. Group 1: Legal Issues and Consumer Rights - Migu Video publicly apologized for unauthorized use of content from "Love and Producer," acknowledging it constituted unfair competition and lacked official permission [2][17]. - The company has been embroiled in a two-year legal dispute with Paper Games, culminating in Migu's admission of fault and an apology [2][18]. - Users have expressed frustration over the inability to obtain refunds for CBA annual subscriptions after the loss of broadcasting rights, claiming their consumer rights have been violated [5][20]. Group 2: Loss of CBA Broadcasting Rights - Migu Video has been the exclusive new media broadcaster for the CBA since 2018, with a contract worth over 2 billion yuan, but failed to renew the agreement for the 2025-2026 season [3][19]. - The announcement of losing CBA broadcasting rights has disappointed many fans, leading to a decline in the perceived value of Migu Video subscriptions [4][19]. - Users have reported that without CBA content, they see little reason to continue using Migu Video, indicating a potential drop in subscriber numbers [5][20]. Group 3: Membership and Service Issues - Migu Video's membership structure has been criticized for being overly complex, with separate charges for different types of content, leading to user dissatisfaction [9][23]. - The company has introduced alternative sports content to compensate for the loss of CBA, but users feel these offerings do not adequately replace the lost value [5][22]. - The "nested membership" model has drawn complaints from users who feel misled about the services they are entitled to, particularly regarding the lack of clarity in service agreements [9][25]. Group 4: Competitive Position and Market Challenges - Migu Video's monthly active users (MAU) are approximately 17.93 million, significantly lower than competitors like Tencent Video and iQIYI, indicating a decline in market position [13][27]. - Analysts suggest that Migu's reliance on purchasing content rights rather than producing original content has left it vulnerable in a competitive landscape increasingly favoring unique and proprietary offerings [14][28]. - The company's strategic focus on marketing over operational integrity and user experience has led to a disconnect with consumer expectations, contributing to its challenges in retaining subscribers [14][28].

Group 1 - Migu Video Technology Co., Ltd. issued an apology on December 21, acknowledging that its May 2023 promotional video for the TV series "Warm and Sweet" constituted unfair competition by using content from the game "Love and Producer" without permission [1][4] - The official account of "Love and Producer" confirmed the victory in the intellectual property rights case, emphasizing the importance of protecting original works and their value through legal means [3] - The dispute originated from Migu's marketing strategy, which misled the public into believing there was a collaboration between "Love and Producer" and the TV series, leading to strong backlash from the gaming community [4] Group 2 - Migu Video clarified that there was no collaboration between "Love and Producer" and "Warm and Sweet," and that the characters from the game do not correspond to those in the TV series [4] - Migu committed to improving its content release review mechanisms and adhering strictly to intellectual property laws to maintain compliance and protect industry standards [4] - Migu Video is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Mobile's Migu Culture Technology Co., Ltd., and serves as the sole copyright operation entity in the video sector, managing popular products like "Migu Video" and "Migu Movie" [5]

Core Insights - The female-oriented gaming market in China has shown significant growth, with a market size reaching 8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 124.1%, indicating strong commercial potential and cultural influence [1][10] - Despite the growth, the market faced challenges in 2025, including content controversies, public relations crises, and industry changes that impacted development and growth [1][9] Market Performance - The top female-oriented games in 2025 include "Light and Night of Love" by Tencent, which has shown stable performance and even surpassed "Love and Deep Space" in revenue in November 2025, with an estimated income of 49.09 million yuan, reflecting a 125.42% increase [4][5] - "Love and Deep Space" faced multiple controversies, including player dissatisfaction and security issues, leading to a significant revenue drop of 39.40% to 48.36 million yuan in November 2025 [2][5] - "World Beyond" experienced a public relations crisis due to price increases and a loss of player trust, resulting in a significant decline in its market position, although it showed signs of recovery with a strong update in December 2025 [6][7] Industry Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the female-oriented gaming market has shifted, with previous leaders like "Code Kite" and "World Beyond" falling behind, while "Love and Deep Space" remains resilient despite controversies [9] - The market still has growth potential, as there is a significant demand for emotional engagement among young, educated female players, with over 60% of players being single and seeking emotional support through gaming [10] - Upcoming titles like "Under the Night" and "Code Sol" are generating interest, with "Under the Night" already in its second testing phase and receiving positive feedback, indicating potential for future success in the market [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The mobile game "Love and Producer" by Paper Games is facing allegations of plagiarism regarding its new event, which is said to closely resemble elements from the popular RPG "Persona 5" [1][2][4]. Group 1: Allegations of Plagiarism - The new event "Century Preview Letter" for "Love and Producer" has been criticized for its visual elements, UI design, and music, which are claimed to be strikingly similar to "Persona 5" [2][3]. - Players have pointed out specific similarities, such as the color scheme, character designs, and narrative themes, leading to widespread discussions about the game's originality [2][3]. - This is not the first time "Love and Producer" has been embroiled in plagiarism controversies, with previous instances involving unauthorized use of intellectual property from F1 racing and popular manga [4][5]. Group 2: Market Performance and Player Sentiment - "Love and Producer" has seen a decline in market performance, with its monthly revenue reported at 3.79 million yuan, which is significantly lower compared to competitors like Tencent's "Light and Night" and NetEase's "Travelers in Time" [6]. - The recent controversy has led to a broader examination of the game's operational issues, including player dissatisfaction with character development and resource allocation [5][6]. - The timing of the new event's launch coincided with the game's eighth anniversary, which has intensified player frustrations and led to a collective outcry regarding the game's direction and management [5][6]. Group 3: Company Response and Legal Context - Following a recent legal victory against Migu Video Technology for unfair competition, the company had publicly emphasized its commitment to protecting its intellectual property [7]. - However, the allegations of plagiarism have caused a backlash, with players questioning the company's integrity and consistency in defending original content [7].

Group 1 - OpenAI has improved its "Compute Margin" to 70% as of October 2023, indicating a significant increase in profitability after deducting costs for running models for paid users [5] - This margin is expected to decrease to 52% by the end of 2024, suggesting a potential decline in profitability in the coming year [6] - OpenAI's Compute Margin is higher than that of its competitor Anthropic, although Anthropic is noted to have better efficiency in overall server spending [7] Group 2 - MiniMax, a general artificial intelligence company, is set to become the fastest AI company to go public, with over 2.12 million users across more than 200 countries and regions, and a revenue growth of over 170% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025 [9] - The company has received investments from top institutions including MiHoYo, Alibaba, Tencent, and Sequoia, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing and highest-valued AI tech companies [9] Group 3 - Xiaomi's president, Lu Weibing, announced that the price of the Xiaomi 17 Ultra will increase due to rising costs of core components, including processors, cameras, and memory [28] - The cost of the Leica APO certified telephoto lens for the new model is reported to be twice that of the previous generation, making the price hike unavoidable under current cost pressures [30] Group 4 - He Xiaopeng, chairman of XPeng Motors, stated that AI technology is transitioning from the digital world to the physical world, predicting that robots, autonomous vehicles, and low-flying drones will become standard in the lives of young people over the next decade [31]

Group 1 - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman predicts a future without traditional screen-keyboard devices, suggesting a series of small, pocket-sized AI hardware devices instead [1][3] - The new devices are expected to lack screens and resemble early iPod Shuffle designs, with a clip-on feature for wearing around the neck [1] - Altman believes that the current device forms are inadequate for realizing AI capabilities, as they do not support a shift towards more intelligent, proactive computing systems [3] Group 2 - Uniqlo has faced backlash for allegedly using surveillance to prevent theft, with reports from consumers and employees confirming the practice in some stores [4] - Employees indicated that the decision to use surveillance was influenced by the level of theft experienced at specific locations [4] Group 3 - Lele Tea issued an apology for quality issues with its apple candy products, including complaints about insufficient sugar coating and improper presentation [5][6] - The company has taken immediate action to remove non-compliant products from shelves and enforce corrective measures across its stores [6] Group 4 - MiniMax, a leading AGI company, is set to become the fastest AI company to go public, having established a strong user base and significant revenue growth [20][21] - The company reported over 2.12 million users and 130,000 enterprise clients globally, with a revenue increase of over 170% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025 [21] Group 5 - Samsung has launched the world's first 2nm mobile chip, Exynos 2600, which will debut in the Galaxy S26 series, featuring significant performance improvements [22] - The chip includes a ten-core CPU with a 39% performance boost, a GPU that doubles graphics performance, and an NPU with a 113% increase in computing power [22]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Game Industry Conference highlighted the release of the "Game Shanghai Ten Measures," aimed at supporting the high-quality development of domestic games and injecting strong momentum into the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth - China's game industry achieved steady growth, with actual sales revenue reaching 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, and a user base expanding to 683 million, up 1.35% [1]. - Self-developed games contributed significantly, with domestic market sales reaching 291.09 billion yuan, a growth of 11.64%, supported by stable long-term products and new releases [1]. - The overseas market for self-developed games saw actual sales of $20.46 billion, marking a 10.23% increase, maintaining a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan for six consecutive years [1]. Group 2: Policy Support - The "Game Shanghai Ten Measures" includes systematic support policies with an annual funding total of 50 million yuan, aimed at creating a globally influential game and esports industry ecosystem [2]. - Key functional areas identified for development include Xuhui Caohejing, Yangpu Dazhongzhi, and Jing'an Daning, focusing on building a robust industry hub with comprehensive services and active consumer engagement [2]. - Xuhui District attracted over 70 game companies, including Tencent and NetEase, with the gaming industry revenue reaching 52.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 5.0% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 3: Cultural Integration and Innovation - The "Game Shanghai Ten Measures" encourages the development of original high-quality games that incorporate traditional Chinese culture and reflect Shanghai's urban characteristics [3]. - Companies like Paper Games collaborate with national cultural institutions, while Century Huatong emphasizes technological innovation, viewing the gaming industry as a platform for cultural and technological advancement [3]. Group 4: Esports Development - Shanghai aims to become a global hub for esports, with plans to accelerate the development of a globally influential proprietary event system and promote synergy between international top events and local IPs [3]. - The Perfect World Esports event attracted nearly 90,000 attendees and generated 370 million yuan in surrounding consumption, showcasing the potential of esports to drive economic growth [3].