传媒 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 政策加码、AI 赋能，内容出海步伐加快 全球数字内容市场空间广阔，国产内容积极出海，其中游戏出海规模领先，短剧 出海收入高增。复盘网文、游戏、短剧出海历程，我们认为内容出海整体趋势为 内容精品化发展，分发逐步由委外代理转为自主控制，国内企业在做大出海市场 的同时，亦在提升产业链价值占比。我们以相关指数成分公司为主要样本，计算 得传媒板块 2019-2024 年境外收入占比由 5.7%提升至 10.4%，游戏板块由 26.6% 提升至 38.5%，影视制作板块由 10.7%提升至 24.6%。展望未来，我们认为博大 精深的中华文化为出海内容企业提供丰富"原料"，随文化交流加深，国内企业 或掌握更易于海外理解的内容呈现形式；叠加激励政策持续出台，以及 AI 技术 发展扩大优质内容供给，看好内容出海市场规模加速扩大。 数据来源：聚源 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 传媒 沪深 ...

2026 年 03 月 03 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 2 月版号供给稳步释放，国内游戏市场持续修复 投资要点 传媒 行业快报 投资评级 领先大市(维持) 首选股票 评级 一年行业表现 资料来源：聚源 | 升幅% | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -11.73 | 1.22 | 5.76 | | 绝对收益 | -10.64 | 3.45 | 25.44 | 分析师 王延森 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525100001 wangyansen@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 传媒：AI 应用场景逐步落地，投资方向日渐丰 富-华金证券-传媒-行业深度 2026.1.9 传媒：AI 赛道竞争多维深化，生态应用格局加 速演-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025.12.12 传媒：长剧内容供给创新，微短剧市场多元发 展-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025.12.10 传媒：数字音乐发展迅速，平台赋能消费生态- 华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025.11.30 传媒：版号创新高注入活力，双端驱动十月市 场增长-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025. ...

传媒互联网周报 优于大市 DeepSeek V4 将发布，持续看好 AI 应用 行业下跌 4.44%，跑输沪深 300，跑输创业板指。本周（2.24-2.27）传媒行 业下跌 4.44%，跑输沪深 300（1.08%），跑输创业板指（1.05%）。其中涨 幅靠前的分别为中信出版、友车科技、ST 华闻、中体产业等，跌幅靠前的分 别为博纳影业、光线传媒、横店影视、幸福蓝海等。横向比较来看，本周传 媒板块在所有板块中涨跌幅排名第 29 位。 谷歌 Nano Banana2 上线，DeepSeek V4 将在下周发布。1）Nano Banana 2 图像生成模型正式上线，带来 2K 默认分辨率和文字渲染能力的大幅提升；2） 2 月 28 日报道，深度求索（DeepSeek）将于下周发布全新多模态大语言模型 V4，是继 2025 年 1 月 R1 推理模型发布后的首次重大更新；3）OpenAI 与亚 马逊达成多年期深度合作，根据协议，亚马逊将向 OpenAI 投资 500 亿美元， 首期投入 150 亿美元，未来还将根据特定条件追加 350 亿美元。亚马逊将在 云计算、数据存储方面为 OpenAI 提供坚实的技术支持， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expectation of over 10% relative increase against the CSI 300 index in the next six months [59] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Spring Festival box office performance was below expectations, with a total box office of 57.52 billion yuan and 120 million viewers during the holiday period [20] - AI applications have gained significant traction, with notable user engagement metrics, such as over 50 million daily active users for the Yuanbao app and 1.14 billion monthly active users [4][11] - The gaming sector showed steady growth, particularly in the PC segment, which saw a year-on-year increase of 23.46% [12] Market Review - As of February 25, 2026, the media index fell by 3.73%, ranking last among 30 primary industry groups, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.45 percentage points [14] - Among sub-sectors, the internet advertising marketing sector dropped by 11.56%, while the film sector saw a slight increase of 0.16% [14][17] - The overall PE ratio for the media sector is 31.36 times, with a historical percentile of 88.2% [19] Industry News - Tencent launched its first independent comic drama app, "Fire Dragon Comic Drama," focusing on AI technology applications in the comic drama field [20] - The report mentions the release of new AI models, such as Seedance 2.0 and Keling 3.0, which enhance content creation capabilities in the film and creative sectors [20] - The report notes that the domestic game market's actual sales revenue reached 324.68 billion yuan in January 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 4.47% [39] Monthly Data - In January 2026, the domestic film market's box office was 1.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.15% [23] - The average ticket price in January was 38.53 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.34% [23] - The gaming market's actual sales revenue for January 2026 was 324.68 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.99% [39]

Seedance2.0 引市场关注，春节档票 房不及预期 ——传媒行业月报 传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 传媒相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《传媒行业分析报告：春节档表现低迷，票房 低于预期》 2026-02-25 《传媒行业月报：AI 流量入口竞争白热，春 节档电影供给丰富》 2026-01-28 《传媒行业分析报告：传媒 2025Q4 基金持仓 分析：重仓股配置力度环比下降，个股配置分 化》 2026-01-27 联系人：李智 ⚫ 行情回顾与估值表现：截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，2 月传媒指数下跌 3.73%，在 30 个一级行业组合中排名第 30，跑输同期上证指数 （+0.71%）4.45pct，跑输同期沪深 300 指数（+0.63%）4.36pct， 跑输同期创业板指（+0.25%）3.99pct。 子板块中，互联网广告营销板块下跌11.56%，游戏板块下跌4.25%， 出版板块下跌 0.04%，影视板块上涨 0.16%。 2026 年 2 月 1 日 ...

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the top 30 Chinese non-gaming and gaming companies in terms of overseas revenue for January 2026, highlighting trends and performance in the mobile application market [1][2][6]. Non-Gaming Companies - ByteDance and YY Group continue to lead the overseas revenue rankings, despite a slight decline in revenue [2][3]. - Ruqi Software returned to the third position, with its app "PictureThis" experiencing a revenue increase of over 52.2% due to successful holiday marketing campaigns [3][4]. - Companies like 合合信息 and iQIYI saw minor revenue growth, benefiting from holiday effects on their office tools and streaming applications [4]. - Daily Yoga's revenue increased by over 50.4% due to a successful New Year campaign focused on "Chair Yoga" [4][5]. - Several companies at the lower end of the ranking, such as Appxy and 大华科技, experienced slight revenue growth [5]. Gaming Companies - The gaming market showed increased activity in January, with top companies maintaining their positions, including 点点互动, Tencent, and 柠檬微趣 [6][8]. - 点点互动's game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" achieved an estimated revenue of over $16 million, reinforcing its leading position [7][8]. - 悠星网络's games celebrated anniversaries, leading to significant revenue increases of 139.3% and 75.9% for its titles [8]. - 新游 "明日方舟：终末地" from 鹰角网络 made a strong return to the rankings, achieving notable revenue in its first weeks [8][9]. - 心动网络's new game "Heartopia" saw a revenue increase of over 147.9% due to effective marketing strategies [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the smart technology industry [2] Core Insights - The smart technology sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with various ETFs showing strong performance, particularly in the media and AI segments [3][12] - The market for new games is recovering, with both domestic and international supply accelerating, led by major companies like Tencent [4][34] - The AI application landscape is witnessing breakthroughs, with significant investments from major tech companies, indicating a potential revaluation of AI application sectors [5] Market Review - The smart technology ETFs have shown a general upward trend, with the media ETF (512980) leading with a 22.14% increase, followed by the Sci-Tech AI ETF (588760) and the Xinchuang ETF (159537) with increases of 17.39% and 17.21% respectively [3][12] - The technology sector is in an upward channel, supported by factors such as valuation recovery, improved trading structures, and ongoing policy support for technology sectors [12] Industry Dynamics - The gaming market is seeing a revival with major titles being launched, including Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" and "All-Star Awakening," which are expected to generate significant revenue [4][34] - The film industry is also active, with six high-quality films scheduled for release during the 2026 Spring Festival, indicating a rich supply for the cinema market [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI application-themed ETFs, as the release of models like Seedance 2.0 and Keling 3.0 marks significant advancements in the multi-modal field, which could lead to accelerated commercialization of AI applications [5]

广发证券认为，《异环》核心在于强化玩家主体性。这为二次元开放世界创造了全新体验。具体体现 为：在操作上，可选第一人称视角，带来更强的沉浸感；在玩法上，多分支的支线设计让玩家的主动选 择能显著改变进程与结局，从而使其从剧情的"阅读者"转变为内容的"推动者"。 《异环》关注度较高，具备用户基础，且玩法体验丰富 (1)用户基础扎实，市场热度高。据官网数据，游戏预约量已突破2000万；其三测PV在哔哩哔哩的播放 量超过700万，反映出产品通过早期宣发积累了扎实的关注度与用户基本盘。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据伽马数据，回顾过去5年的二次元游戏市场，行业有典 型的供给创造需求的特征，在重点产品发行的年份，市场规模均有显著增长。《明日方舟：终末地》持 续验证二次元开放世界的商业化潜力，当前《异环》测试表现突出，玩家获得更加沉浸的游戏体验，产 品上线有望实现突出流水表现，核心推荐具备二次元产品的游戏研发商。首推完美世界(002624.SZ)， 关注头部公司腾讯控股(00700)、储备有《无限大》的网易-S(09999)等。 广发证券主要观点如下： 二次元市场或迎来复苏，《明日方舟：终末地》的成功发行持续验 ...

Group 1 - Industry investment rating: Buy [2] - Previous rating: Buy [2] - Report date: February 9, 2026 [2] Group 2 - The core viewpoint is that the game "异环" is expected to reshape the experience of the two-dimensional open world by enhancing player agency, allowing players to transition from being mere observers to active participants in the narrative [6][34] - The two-dimensional game market is showing signs of recovery, with significant sales growth driven by key product launches, such as "明日方舟：终末地," which achieved over 1.2 billion yuan in revenue within two weeks of launch [6][16][34] - The report emphasizes that the success of "异环" is attributed to its innovative gameplay mechanics, including first-person perspective and multi-branch storylines that significantly enhance player immersion and engagement [19][20][34] Group 3 - The two-dimensional game market has experienced a typical "supply creates demand" characteristic over the past five years, with notable growth in market size during years of key product launches [13][16] - The report highlights that "明日方舟：终末地" has a strong user base, with over 20 million pre-registrations and significant engagement metrics, indicating robust market demand for high-quality two-dimensional products [33][34] - "异环" has introduced a rich interaction experience, evolving from simple dialogue options to deeper relationship-building mechanics, enhancing the emotional and social value of character interactions [27][33]

Core Insights - In January, Sensor Tower reported significant growth in overseas mobile game revenues, with Lemon Microfun's flagship game "Gossip Harbor" achieving a 4% month-over-month increase, securing the top position in the overseas mobile game revenue chart [1] - Muto Technology's "Mobile Legends: Bang Bang" saw a remarkable 122% surge in overseas revenue, climbing nine positions to rank 8th in the revenue chart and claiming the top spot in the growth chart [1] Revenue Rankings - "Gossip Harbor" led the overseas mobile game revenue chart in January, with a 4% increase in revenue and a 136% rise in downloads, driven by new seasonal events [1] - "Mobile Legends: Bang Bang" reached nearly $2.4 billion in total global revenue after nearly ten years, reinforcing its position in the global mobile esports sector [1] - "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" from Dd Interactive achieved a 33% month-over-month revenue increase, entering the top ten of the global revenue chart for the first time [2] - "Arknights: Endfield," a new title from Eagle Horn Network, generated over $30 million in its first two weeks, debuting at 17th in the revenue chart [2] - "Dragon Traveler," an international version of a RPG from Zilong Games, ranked 26th in the revenue chart and 4th in the growth chart in its first month [2] Growth Rankings - "Heartopia," a life simulation game from Xindong Network, quickly topped the iOS download charts in multiple countries and ranked 5th in the global simulation game revenue chart [3] - "Genshin Impact" from miHoYo saw a significant revenue spike of 867% in Japan on January 14, following a major update, ranking 3rd in the growth chart [3] - "Arknights" experienced an 81% increase in overseas revenue, returning to the revenue chart at 24th and ranking 7th in the growth chart [3] - "Cell Survivor" continued its growth with a 50% increase in January, ranking 14th in the growth chart [4] - "Haunted Merge: Horror Story" from WhaleJoy Game saw a 285% increase in revenue, entering the growth chart at 17th [4] Download Rankings - "Block Blast!" from Hungry Studio maintained its position as the top downloaded overseas mobile game in January [5] - "Vita Mahjong" from Vita Studio saw a 31% increase in downloads, securing the second position in the download chart [5] - "Tile Explorer - Triple Match" from Oakever Game climbed to 3rd place with a 46% increase in downloads [5] - "Heartopia" debuted at 5th in the download chart and topped the download growth chart in its first month [5]