2月25日，周期股延续强势，化工、稀土、有色金属、钢铁、建材等行业大涨。截至收盘，中证稀土产业指数上涨6.1%，中证石化产业指数上涨1%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%，随着石化产业淘汰落后产能 和加强技术创新，产业链的价值将进一步提升。 2月3日早盘，石油化工行业迎来修复，中证石化产业指数震荡上行，现涨约1.65%，成分股蓝晓科 技、浙江龙盛、兴发集团等领涨。相关ETF方面，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）获资金逢 低布局，连续19个交易日合计"吸金"14.13亿元，最新份额达16.56亿份，最新规模16.16亿元。 上海市《政府工作报告》表示，今年要聚焦建设现代化产业体系，在石化、钢铁等行业持续开展数 智技术、绿色技术改造和产线升级。国贸期货分析称，新能源的加速普及，叠加大型国企和民企一体化 炼化基地的规模与技术优势，正在持续挤压传统独立地炼企业的市场份额。中小型、装置落后、产品单 一的地炼企业面临日益严峻的生存压力，行业整合与淘汰进程加快，市场份额进一步向具备成本、环保 和产业链协同优势的头部企业集中。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Price-Volume Data Modeling - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages convolutional neural networks to analyze standardized graphical representations of price-volume data, aiming to predict future price trends and map learned features to industry thematic indices[79][81] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardize price-volume data into graphical formats for each stock within a specific time window[79] - Apply convolutional neural networks to extract features from these graphical representations[79] - Map the extracted features to thematic industry indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, and others[81] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry themes based on price-volume data and provides actionable insights for sector allocation[79][81] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CNN Model - **Thematic Indices Configured**: - CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (h11057.CSI)[81] - CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813.CSI)[81] - CNI Oil & Gas Index (399439.SZ)[81] - CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index (931248.CSI)[81] - CNI Nonferrous Metals Index (399395.SZ)[81]

Group 1: Index Advantages - The product tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, allowing for easy allocation to leading companies such as "Three Oil Giants" and Wanhua Chemical in the petroleum and petrochemical sectors [1] - Valuation position is relatively lower, with a price-to-earnings ratio at the 65th percentile, below comparable chemical indices, indicating ample room for valuation expansion during the rising cycle of chemical prices [1] - The leading attributes are prominent, with a market capitalization skewed towards large caps, suggesting that industry leaders are likely to benefit first during the supply optimization process in the petrochemical industry [1] - The value style is expected to outperform, as the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index is likely to benefit from a market shift towards value, often significantly outperforming comparable chemical indices during such phases [1] - The sustainability of the petrochemical industry cycle is stronger on the right side, as the current phase of rising chemical prices typically provides excess advantages [1] - The index is positioned to benefit from oil price reversal expectations, with the gold-oil ratio reaching historical extremes [1] Group 2: Product Advantages - The ETF for the chemical industry, managed by E Fund, is the only low-fee ETF product in the petrochemical sector, with a management and custody fee rate of 15+5 basis points per year, maintaining a leading level of long-term excess returns among comparable products [2] - The E Fund chemical industry ETF (516570, with off-market connection A/C: 020104/020105) has garnered significant market attention due to its advantages [2]

截至午间收盘，中证石化产业指数上涨3.3%，中证稀土产业指数上涨1.2%。 中国银河证券表示，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩；"十五五"规划建议"坚 持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。其认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行业有望迎周 期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The petrochemical sector has entered a low-level fluctuation phase, with ample future elasticity expected as the industry recovers from a down cycle that began after reaching a historical profit peak in 2021. The sector is anticipated to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy and the recovery of domestic demand [1][2][44]. - The "anti-involution" policy is being upgraded, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issuing a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in added value [1][7][44]. - The cost side of the petrochemical industry has certain support, with IEA predicting global oil demand to remain between 104-105 million barrels per day from 2025 to 2030, and a low likelihood of significant drops in oil prices [1][9][11]. Group 2 - The CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057.CSI) was launched on July 22, 2009, and includes all listed companies in the petrochemical sector from the CSI 800 index sample space. The index is heavily weighted towards basic chemicals (63.61%) and oil and petrochemicals (34.69%) [1][13][45]. - As of January 16, 2026, the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.44 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.55, indicating relatively low valuations compared to the CSI 800 index. The top ten weighted stocks account for 56.73% of the index [1][19][26][46]. - The average market capitalization of the index's constituent stocks is approximately 1580.30 billion, positioned between the CSI 300 and CSI 800 indices. The index's performance is expected to benefit from structural market trends in late 2025 [1][23][28][46]. Group 3 - The Huaxia CSI Petrochemical Industry ETF (159731) is designed to track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index and was established on December 2, 2021. The fund manager, Mr. Dan Kuan, has extensive experience in managing index funds [1][33][47]. - As of January 16, 2026, the ETF has a circulation of 549 million shares and a scale of 5.22 billion, with a significant increase in circulation over the past year [1][35][47]. - Huaxia Fund Management Company, established in April 1998, is one of the first national fund management companies approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, managing over 900 billion in non-monetary ETF products, ranking first among fund companies [1][41][42].

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to analyze price-volume data and predict future prices. The model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations and maps learned features to industry theme indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[78][80][81] - The construction process of the CNN model involves transforming individual stock price-volume data within a specific window into standardized graphical charts. These charts are then input into the CNN for feature extraction and prediction modeling. The learned features are subsequently applied to identify and allocate industry themes[78][80] - The evaluation of the CNN model highlights its ability to capture complex patterns in price-volume data and effectively map these patterns to industry themes. This approach provides a novel perspective for quantitative investment strategies[78][81] - Backtesting results indicate that the CNN model's latest configuration suggests a focus on themes such as petrochemicals, chemicals, machine tools, semiconductors, and nonferrous metals. Specific indices include the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[80][81]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.62% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.34%. The large-cap value index fell by 1.64%, and the large-cap growth index dropped by 1.34%. The Shanghai 50 Index declined by 1.54%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 3.33%. The building materials and oil & petrochemical sectors performed well, while banks and telecommunications lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - As of January 23, 2026, the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium of 2.46%, with a two-standard deviation boundary at 4.68%. The valuation levels show that the CSI All Share Index's PETTM is at the 84th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 72% and 73%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 63%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 70% and 68%, respectively. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1]. ETF Fund Flow - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 326.5 billion yuan, while the financing balance increased by approximately 6.5 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 27.727 billion yuan [2]. Industry Themes and Indices - The latest thematic allocation includes sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, machine tools, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals. Specific indices mentioned are the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Sub-segment Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, and the National Non-ferrous Metals Index [2][3]. Long-term Market Sentiment - The report includes observations on the proportion of stocks above the 200-day long-term moving average, indicating market sentiment trends [13]. Financing Balance - The report tracks the financing balance, which is a critical indicator of market liquidity and investor sentiment [16]. Individual Stock Performance - A statistical distribution of individual stocks based on their return ranges since the beginning of the year is provided, highlighting performance variations across different stocks [18]. Oversold Indices - The report notes instances of indices being oversold, which may present potential buying opportunities [20].

Core Insights - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has seen a strong increase of 1.49% as of January 13, 2026, with notable gains from stocks such as Kasei Biotech (up 11.71%) and Xingfa Group (up 8.42%) [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has risen by 1.17%, reaching a latest price of 0.95 yuan, and has experienced a total net inflow of 57.72 million yuan over the past four days [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has achieved a net value increase of 50% over the past two years, with a maximum monthly return of 15.86% since its inception [1] Fund Performance - The Petrochemical ETF has a current scale of 307 million yuan, marking a one-year high [1] - The longest consecutive monthly gain for the ETF was 8 months, with a maximum cumulative increase of 41.6% [1] - The average return during the months of increase is 5.25%, and the ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.19% over the past year [1] Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index account for 56.73% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical [1] - The top ten stocks by weight are: - Wanhua Chemical (10.47%) - China Petroleum (7.63%) - Salt Lake Co. (6.44%) - China Petrochemical (6.44%) - CNOOC (6.44%) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry index in China is experiencing an upward trend, with significant contributions from leading stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Salt Lake Shares, China Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation. The petrochemical ETF has seen a net inflow of 22.58 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. Industry Summary - The basic chemical industry is projected to have a strong performance in 2025, driven by robust demand for new materials in emerging applications such as AI, OLED, and robotics. This is expected to accelerate the demand for core materials like photoresists [1]. - The industry is anticipated to exhibit a pattern of "weak fluctuations in the first half, mid-term rebound, and structural activity in the later stages," with significant price increases in sub-sectors like lithium battery materials due to improved supply and demand dynamics [1]. - The macroeconomic recovery is contributing to a rebound in the chemical industry, with resilience observed in sectors such as agricultural chemicals and MDI. There are clear expectations for profit recovery in titanium dioxide and lithium battery materials [1]. ETF and Fund Performance - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China petrochemical industry index, with the basic chemical sector accounting for 60.1% and the oil and petrochemical sector for 32.7% of the index. The elimination of outdated production capacity and the enhancement of technological innovation in the petrochemical industry are expected to further increase the value of the industry chain [1].