证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钨行业月度跟踪 1 月钨价延续强势上涨，矿端供应紧张短期难改 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 本月钨行业市场表现强势，估值大幅提升 20250628 据 Wind 数据，本月1钨行业累计大幅上涨 60.78%，大幅跑赢基准（沪深 300）58.11 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）自月初 37.25x 上升至 57.61x， 当前处于 93.57%2历史分位。 ❑ 本月国内钨产业链价格受资源端推动强势上行，不断创历史新高，国际 钨价同步上行 1 本月行业涨跌幅及价格统计时间区间为 2026/01/01 至 2026/01/29，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2019/12/2 至 2026/01/29，下同。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 《供给约束加强，战略价值凸显》 行业评级：增持（下 ...

进入2026年，钨价持续高位运行，黑钨精矿、白钨精矿等核心品种价格均创历史新高。根据中钨在线数 据，1月21日，65%黑钨精矿价格报52.8万元/标吨，较年初上涨14.8%；65%白钨精矿价格报52.7万元/标 吨，较年初上涨14.8%；钨粉价格报1240元/公斤，较年初上涨14.8%；碳化钨粉价格报1200元/公斤，较 年初上涨15.4%。 上海钢联（300226）铁合金事业部钨业分析师施佳对《证券日报》记者表示，1月中旬以来，钨矿市场 货紧价高，下游终端用户消费热度虽有消退，但终端硬质合金及钨材等钨制品普遍也在通过上调产品售 价转移成本压力，钨价保持坚挺上行趋势。 在钨价持续走强的背景下，产业链上市公司也迎来发展机遇。1月20日，翔鹭钨业（002842）发布业绩 预告，预计公司2025年实现归母净利润1.25亿元至1.80亿元，同比实现扭亏。 翔鹭钨业表示，钨金属原料价格2025年全年持续上涨，钨市场供需情况较往年有所改善。其作为国内主 要钨制品及钨材制造商，对钨产品议价能力提升，原材料价格上涨到下游产品的传导较为顺畅，主要产 品毛利率及毛利显著增长。硬质合金销售订单量同比显著增加，光伏用钨丝产能逐步释放 ...

Industry Overview - Tungsten prices are showing a steady upward trend, with 65% black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 2000 yuan to 512,000 yuan per standard ton, reflecting an 11.3% rise since the beginning of the year [1] - 65% white tungsten concentrate prices also rose by 2000 yuan to 511,000 yuan per standard ton, marking an 11.3% increase year-to-date [1] - Ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices increased by 5000 yuan to 755,000 yuan per ton, representing a 12.7% rise since the start of the year [1] - Other tungsten varieties have also experienced varying degrees of price increases [1] Legislative Impact - A bipartisan group of U.S. Congress members has introduced the "2026 Ensuring Critical American Resources and Elements Minerals Act," proposing a $2.5 billion "Strategic Resilience Reserve" to establish a national reserve of critical minerals, including tungsten, which is prioritized due to its importance in military applications [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic tungsten market is facing multiple supply disruptions, including reduced available mining quotas, decreased shipments from tungsten mines at year-end, and unstable import volumes [1] - Overseas supply from Vietnam is decreasing, with no new mines expected in the short term, while the EU and the U.S. have classified tungsten as a strategic metal, leading to increased demand [1] - Analysts suggest that the tungsten industry is entering a potentially multi-year upcycle, with related listed companies expected to see sustained performance improvements [1][2]

Industry Overview - The prices of tungsten products in China have increased, with black tungsten concentrate and white tungsten concentrate rising by 5000 CNY/ton, and tungsten iron and ammonium paratungstate increasing by 10000 CNY/ton [1] - Global supply growth is limited, while demand is driven by emerging industries and increasing safety requirements. China's tungsten ore production growth is slowing, with Kazakhstan and South Korea expected to contribute to supply increases in the short term [1] - The global tungsten supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while global tungsten consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.61% during the same period [1] Company Insights - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry has established an integrated production system covering exploration, mining, beneficiation, smelting, powder production, and deep processing, making it one of the few companies in China with a complete industry chain [3] - Zhongjin Lingnan is an integrated enterprise in non-ferrous metal deep processing, with its mining operations holding tungsten metal resources amounting to 16,500 tons [4]

Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported Q4 2025 revenue of $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase and a 1.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a gross margin of 62.3%, driven by strong demand for high-end chips due to the AI computing wave [1] - TSMC's capital expenditure is expected to reach $52-56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations, indicating robust future AI computing demand [1] Tungsten Industry - Domestic prices for tungsten products have increased, with black tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate prices rising by 5,000 yuan/ton and tungsten iron by 10,000 yuan/ton [1] - Global tungsten supply growth is limited, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 2.57% from 2023 to 2028, while demand is expected to grow at 2.61% during the same period, driven by emerging industries [2] Commercial Aerospace - Beijing's Rocket Street project has completed its construction and will serve as China's first commercial aerospace research and production base, offering various shared services for the entire commercial aerospace development chain [3] - The U.S. aims to produce 10,000 Starship spacecraft annually, and the FCC has approved SpaceX's deployment of an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, totaling 15,000 [3] Power Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is set at 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, focusing on green transformation and new power system construction [4] - This investment is expected to lead to significant upgrades in China's power system, enhancing energy security and global competitiveness [4] Carbon Fiber Industry - A breakthrough in domestic T1000-grade high-performance carbon fiber has been achieved, with each fiber having 12,000 filaments and a tensile strength exceeding 6,600 MPa, marking a significant advancement in high-end materials [5] - By 2030, China's carbon fiber production capacity is expected to exceed 250,000 tons, with demand in the new energy vehicle sector projected to rise significantly [6] GaN Power Products - Onsemi has signed a collaboration agreement with GlobalFoundries to develop advanced GaN power products, starting with 650V devices, to meet the growing power demands in various sectors [6] - GaN technology is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in applications such as AI data centers and electric vehicles [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues its strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing the 4100-point mark, reaching its highest level since July 2015 [2] - A-share daily trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the sixth time in history, signaling strong bullish sentiment in the market [2][3] Index Performance - Major indices closed in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.92% to 4120.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.15% to 14120.15 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.77% to 3327.81 points [3] - Since the beginning of 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has accumulated a rise of 3.82%, while the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 4.40% [3] Margin Trading - The margin trading balance in A-shares has surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan, reaching a historical high of 26206.09 billion yuan, indicating a strong enthusiasm for leveraged funds [4] - On January 8, the margin trading transaction volume was 3126.04 billion yuan, accounting for 11.05% of the total A-share trading volume [4] Sector Focus - The commercial aerospace sector has seen significant growth, with companies like Galaxy Electronics and China First Heavy Industries achieving consecutive gains [6] - The AI application sector is also thriving, with companies like Yidian Tianxia reaching historical highs and benefiting from recent positive developments in AI technology [6] - The humanoid robot concept has shown strong performance, particularly with Fenglong Co., which has experienced an 11-day consecutive rise due to a major acquisition by UBTECH Robotics [6] Commodity Prices - The non-ferrous metals sector is performing well, with small metal concepts rising sharply, as evidenced by the price increases of tungsten products [7] Institutional Insights - Despite major indices reaching new highs, approximately 90% of individual stocks have not yet surpassed their highest closing prices from September 2024 to the end of 2025, indicating a concentrated market rally [8] - Various sectors, including non-ferrous metals, military industry, and AI computing, have seen stocks break previous highs, while technology growth and consumer sectors remain below their peaks [8]

Group 1 - The long-term assessment mechanism for pension funds exceeding 7 trillion yuan has been introduced, aiming to promote long-term investments and enhance the capital market [1] - Over 40 A-share companies have forecasted a year-on-year increase in performance for 2025, particularly in the electronics, machinery, basic chemicals, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] - A-share listed companies are expected to distribute over 2.6 trillion yuan in dividends for 2025, marking a historical high, with significant contributions from both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] Group 2 - Approximately 50 trillion yuan in medium to long-term deposits are set to mature in 2026, drawing market attention amid declining interest rates [2] - The insurance industry has seen bond issuance exceed 100 billion yuan annually for the past three years, reflecting challenges in capital management and regulatory requirements [2] - The "cold resources" sector is experiencing growth, with new consumer dynamics emerging from events like the Changchun Snow Festival [2] Group 3 - Changyuan Tungsten has raised its procurement prices for tungsten concentrates for the first half of January 2026 [3] - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, has warned that the current AI hype is in the early stages of a bubble, with U.S. stock performance lagging behind non-U.S. equities and gold [4][5] - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the rise of open-source models as a catalyst for innovation in the AI industry during a recent conference [6] Group 4 - Airbus is expected to deliver 793 aircraft in 2025, achieving a key production target despite previous adjustments due to supply chain issues [6] - Nord Fund's actual controller has changed to Sichuan Energy Investment Group, with no impact on the fund's capital structure [6] - The control of Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation's rocket company is being transferred, with an estimated overall valuation of 11.2 billion yuan [7] Group 5 - Grandpa's Farm International Holdings has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on baby food and household products [7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has issued a regulatory warning to Tianpu Co. for inadequate risk disclosures related to its AI business [8][9] - Dengyun Co.'s actual controller has been arrested for illegal public deposit collection, but the company's operations remain unaffected [10]

2025年12月19日钨价格一览 | | | 中钙在线钨精矿和主要钨制品报价表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年12月19日 | | | | | 产品名称 | | 规格/含量 | 中钨在线报价 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | | 黑钨精矿 | ≥65% | 430,000.00 | 1 8,000 | 元/吨 | | | 黑钨精矿 | ≥55% | 426,000.00 | 1 6,000 | 元/吨 | | | 白钨精矿 | ≥65% | 429,000.00 | 1 8,000 | 兀/吨 | | | 白钨精矿 | ≥55% | 425.000.00 | 16,000 | 兀/吨 | | स्वे 制 | 钨铁 | ≥70% | 610,000.00 | ↑ 20,000 | 71.100 | | 급 | 仲钨蛟铵 | ≥88.5% | 650.000.00 | ↑ 20,000 | 工/吨 | | | 钨粉 | ≥99.7% | 1030.00 | 1 20 | 元/千克 | | | 碳化钨粉 | ≥99.7%- | 990. ...

华源证券发布研报称，近两周，黑钨精矿价格上涨9.76%至37.10万元/吨，仲钨酸铵价格上涨12.12%至 55.50万元/吨。供给端，钨精矿开采指标缩减，矿山普遍放缓生产节奏，行业流通继续收紧为主。需求 端，国内需求基本保持稳定，刚需采购为主，PCB刀具需求景气。近期，国内钨主流企业上调12月上半 月长单价格，提振市场看涨情绪。 智通财经获悉，佳鑫国际资源(03858)再涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.45%，报41.38港元，成交额2684.1万 港元。 消息面上，钨市场价格呈现加速上行态势。据"中钨在线"统计，钨精矿每吨价格突破40万元，APT（仲 钨酸铵）价格突破每吨60万元，钨粉每公斤价格也逼近千元大关。具体来看，黑钨精矿（≥65%）报价 攀升至41.5万元／吨，白钨精矿（≥65%）报价41.4万元／吨，钨粉报价990元／公斤，APT报价61万元 ／吨，多品种价格较前一日均有上涨，其中钨精矿价格再次刷新历史纪录。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

近两个月中国净出口为负，而过去是净出口，钨供需发生较大变化。国内外钨供应紧张，短期内难以缓 解，长单价格上调。 钨的库存低，钨资源处在较高位置上符合产业政策，再加上钨的战略地位提高，短期内钨价格易涨难 跌。长单价格公布后，钨市场价格继续上涨，65%黑钨精矿价格在35.8万元/吨，APT价格在53万元/吨 左右。 以下是国内主要钨企业12月上半月长单价格： 江西钨业控股集团有限公司：国标一级黑钨精矿2025年12月上半月报价35万元/标吨，较上期报价涨2.5 万元/吨。 章源钨业：12月上半月钨长单含税价公布，其中黑钨精矿(WO3≥55%)价格为35万元/标吨，白钨精矿 (WO3≥55%)价格为34.9万元/标吨，分别较上期报价上调2.2万元/吨；仲钨酸铵（APT）长单价格51万元/ 吨，较上期报价涨3.2万元/吨。 厦门钨业：厦门钨业12月上半月APT报价公布，APT含税长单现款采购价格50万元/吨，较上期报价涨3 万元/吨。 赣州钨协：2025年12月钨产品预测均价发布，55%黑钨精矿35万元/标吨，较上期报价上调4.1万元/吨； APT51万元/吨，上调5.7万元/吨；中颗粒钨粉880元/公斤，上调150 ...