2026 年 01 月 05 日 两新补贴正式落地符合预期，看好 预期修复下的交易机会 看好 ——2025/12/29-2026/1/4 汽车周报 《补贴落地践行渐进，看好预期修复下的 交易机会——2025/12/22-2025/12/28 汽车周报》 2025/12/29 《L3 智驾车型许可发放，继续看好智能 化、中高端和二手车市场—— 2025/12/15-2025/12/19 汽车周报》 2025/12/22 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 本期投资提示： 1.1 新势力月度销量更新 究 / 行 点 业 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：两新补贴正式落地，计算方式由定额制转向按车价比例计算，结构导向更加清 晰，此前对行业 26 年总量的担心有望得到修复。看好中低端需求为主的比亚迪、吉 利，以及基本面α弹性显著的北汽、江淮 ...

此外，广汽传祺的品牌冲高之路也是困难重重，车主之家数据显示，今年10月，传祺向往S7销量为1887辆，传祺向往S9销量仅为810辆。二者的销量数据均 不尽如人意，前者除4月销量为2977辆外，其余月份均在1000辆左右徘徊；后者销量更为惨淡，今年7月甚至只卖出了3辆。 近日，广州汽车集团股份有限公司（以下简称"广汽集团"）发布了2025年11月份产销快报，其中广汽传祺的销量数据格外刺眼，11月份销量为25739辆，相 比去年同期的44406辆大幅下滑42.04%，近乎"腰斩"。对比其他品牌，合资品牌广汽本田11月份销量为41366辆，同比增长5.68%；广汽丰田销量为73500 辆，同比微增0.71%；即便同样面临挑战的广汽埃安，11月份销量为38326辆，同比下降9.40%，下降幅度也远小于传祺。从累计数据看，广汽传祺1-11月累 计销量为294887辆，相比去年同期累计销量356535辆下滑17.29%，市场压力显而易见。 从定价上来看，向往S7指导价为17.58万元起，限时价为16.98万元，在如今这个卷"性价比"的时代，这个价位市场竞争力并不算足，搭载激光雷达的版本车 型定价超20万元，直接与理想L7 ...

Core Viewpoint - GAC Group has reported a significant decline in performance, with revenue and net profit falling sharply, indicating serious challenges in both its joint venture and independent brands [1][2][4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, GAC Group achieved revenue of 66.93 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of -4.31 billion, marking a record loss [1][2] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 24.32 billion, down 15% year-on-year, with a net loss of -1.77 billion [1][2] Profitability Issues - The company's gross margin fell to -2.17%, a drop of 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the third quarter gross margin at -2.9% [2] - GAC Group's R&D expense ratio remains low at 1.5%, significantly below comparable companies like BYD and SAIC, leading to concerns about the adequacy of financial disclosures regarding operational performance [2] Brand Performance - GAC's independent brand, GAC Trumpchi, has faced a sharp decline in sales and revenue, particularly with new models like the Trumpchi M8 and S7 underperforming expectations [1][3] - In the first half of the year, GAC Trumpchi reported revenue of 17.956 billion, a year-on-year decline of 29.47%, with total sales of 146,300 units, down 22.55% [3] Strategic Initiatives - GAC Group has initiated a three-year "Panyu Action" plan aimed at increasing the share of its independent brands to 60% of total sales by 2027, targeting a sales volume of 2 million units [3][4] - Despite the plan, the first year has seen a significant decline in sales for both Trumpchi and Aion brands, with a reported loss of 19,000 per vehicle in the third quarter [3][4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth and increasing market acceptance of high-end MPVs in China, driven by their comfort, spaciousness, and suitability for various travel needs [2][14] - The domestic MPV market has shown significant growth, with a total of 878,597 units sold in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [3][14] Market Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative sales of domestic MPVs reached 879,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 26.3%, and exports accounted for 57,000 units, up 16.7% [2][3] - The top 15 MPV models accounted for 78.5% of the market share, indicating a trend towards market concentration [3][4] Top Models Performance - The top-selling model, SAIC-GM Wuling Hongguang, achieved sales of 98,820 units, a staggering increase of 163.6% year-on-year [4][5] - Buick GL8 ranked second with sales of 88,239 units, reflecting a growth of 104.4% [4][6] - BYD's Tengshi D9, ranked third, sold 81,760 units, marking a modest increase of 2.9% [4][7] - The newly launched BYD Xia, positioned below Tengshi D9, sold 61,834 units, showcasing strong market entry [4][8] Emerging Trends - The article notes a shift towards hybrid and electric models, with the Buick GL8's PHEV sales surpassing those of traditional fuel vehicles, indicating a successful transition to new energy vehicles [6][7] - The increasing popularity of high-end MPVs is attributed to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger families seeking comfort and versatility [14] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of established brands and new entrants, with companies like GAC Toyota and Lantu Automotive also making significant strides in the MPV segment [9][10][11] - BYD is expanding its product lineup with models like the M9, aimed at international markets, further enhancing its competitive position [12] Future Outlook - The article concludes that the high-end MPV market is poised for rapid growth, driven by consumer demand for quality travel experiences and the increasing availability of new energy models [14]

Core Insights - The introduction of L4 Robotaxi by GAC Group aims to enhance transportation services during the 15th National Games, showcasing advancements in autonomous driving technology [2][3] Group 1: Technology and Capabilities - L4 Robotaxi represents a significant advancement in autonomous driving, capable of operating without human intervention in most scenarios, only requiring human input in extreme cases [3] - The technology is supported by GAC Group's proprietary smart mobility platform, which includes tools for data collection, management, and AI model training, achieving over 95% accuracy in AI pre-labeling [4] Group 2: Operational Implementation - Over 300 L4 Robotaxis will be deployed to support the event, providing transportation for citizens, athletes, and guests, connecting key venues and transportation hubs [5] - Users can book rides through various platforms, with pricing comparable to traditional ride-hailing services, enhancing the overall transportation capacity during the event [5] Group 3: Broader Innovations - GAC Group also showcased a range of innovative vehicles and technologies, including high-end reception vehicles and flying cars, aimed at improving transportation efficiency in the Greater Bay Area [6]

Core Insights - The 15th National Games in Guangdong will utilize L4 Robotaxi technology for transportation, enhancing the event's logistics and providing a new experience for attendees [1][5]. Group 1: L4 Robotaxi Technology - L4 Robotaxi represents a significant advancement in autonomous driving, capable of operating without human intervention in most scenarios, only requiring human input in extreme cases [2]. - The technology was developed by GAC Group in collaboration with Didi Autonomous Driving, featuring capabilities such as obstacle avoidance, route planning, precise turning, and automatic lane changing [2][4]. Group 2: Implementation and Coverage - Over 300 L4 Robotaxis will be deployed to support various transportation needs during the event, including media transport, guest travel, and public access to the games [5]. - The Robotaxi fleet will connect key locations such as sports venues, transportation hubs, and hotels, with services accessible via multiple apps, maintaining pricing comparable to traditional ride-hailing services [5]. Group 3: Technological Infrastructure - GAC Group has developed a comprehensive platform for data collection, management, and AI model training, achieving over 95% accuracy in AI pre-labeling for driving datasets [4]. - The event will also showcase various innovative vehicles and technologies, including high-end reception vehicles and flying cars, aimed at enhancing transportation efficiency across the Greater Bay Area [5].

Core Insights - Shenzhou Car Rental has opened a new outlet at Guangzhou South Station during the National Day holiday, marking a significant step in its expansion within the Greater Bay Area [1] - The company aims to enhance its high-speed rail rental service network, creating an integrated travel service model that combines air and rail transport [1][2] - The introduction of the "随心还" cross-city rental service is expected to boost demand for cross-city orders, tapping into the potential of the Greater Bay Area's three-hour self-driving circle [1][2] Group 1 - Guangzhou South Station, as the largest high-speed rail hub in South China, will serve as a key support for Shenzhou Car Rental's "air-rail intermodal" self-driving model [2] - The company has launched a large-scale new vehicle deployment plan, introducing tens of thousands of new cars across the country, including nearly 30 models ranging from economy cars to high-end vehicles [2] - Shenzhou Car Rental is focusing on family travel by offering spacious 7-seater models and catering to younger customers with smart electric vehicles [2][3] Group 2 - A strategic partnership with BYD has been established, focusing on vehicle procurement plans for 2025 and enhancing the selection of new energy vehicles in the rental fleet [2][3] - The company is expanding beyond traditional car rental services, aiming to become a comprehensive mobility service provider [3] - The collaboration with BYD will also include cooperation in areas such as vehicle networking technology and used car business, indicating a shift towards a more integrated service model [3]

Core Viewpoint - The MPV market in China is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the rise of new energy vehicles, leading to intense competition among fuel, hybrid, and electric models, with the boundaries between commercial and family MPVs becoming increasingly blurred [3][5][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2023, the Denza D9 surpassed traditional competitors like the Buick GL8 and Honda Odyssey to become the annual sales champion in the MPV category, achieving nearly 120,000 units sold [3][4]. - The competition in the MPV market has intensified, with new entrants in the hybrid and electric segments, leading to a decline in sales for traditional fuel MPVs [5][7][9]. - The shift from fuel to hybrid and electric models represents a major change in the MPV market, with hybrid models currently being the most significant variable and growth driver [9][18]. Group 2: Technology Competition - The MPV market is characterized by a "Three Kingdoms" scenario, where fuel, hybrid, and electric vehicles coexist and compete for market share, each with unique advantages [6][9][18]. - Hybrid MPVs are gaining traction by addressing the high fuel consumption of traditional models and the range anxiety associated with electric vehicles, thus appealing to a broader consumer base [9][18]. - Electric MPVs, while still in the exploratory phase in terms of sales, are seen as the ultimate evolution of MPV technology, offering superior space utilization and smart features [14][18]. Group 3: User Positioning - The distinction between commercial and family MPVs is fading, leading to a new market segment focused on "suitable for both business and family," which is becoming the largest growth point [20][22]. - Traditional fuel MPVs like the Buick GL8 and Toyota Sienna maintain strong market positions due to their reliability and established user bases, particularly in business settings [12][20]. - Family MPVs are experiencing significant growth due to changing demographics and consumer preferences, with brands like GAC Trumpchi focusing on family-oriented features [22][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The MPV market is expected to evolve into a competition based on comprehensive strength, where companies that can effectively integrate technology and understand user needs will dominate [27]. - The current changes in the MPV market reflect broader trends in the Chinese automotive industry, emphasizing innovation and user-centric product development [25][27]. - The MPV market is entering a new era filled with opportunities for consumers and challenges for manufacturers, marking a departure from previous stability [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Lantu aims to break out of the competitive circle in the MPV market and achieve a leading position with its innovative products [1] - The MPV market is becoming a new battleground for major automakers, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy MPVs [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, the top ten MPV manufacturers sold 521,000 units, with six of the top ten models being new energy vehicles [1] Group 2 - Lantu's CEO stated that the Lantu Dreamer has achieved industry-leading product strength and aims to drive progress in the Chinese MPV market [2] - The 2026 Lantu Dreamer is equipped with advanced technologies such as 800V high-voltage architecture and Huawei ADS 4 intelligent driving, positioning it for success in the high-end MPV market [4] - The company plans to launch five new models by 2025, with three already released, aiming for an annual sales target of 200,000 units [8]

Core Insights - The rise of the "baby bus" phenomenon reflects a shift in consumer preferences towards family-oriented vehicles, emphasizing comfort and space over traditional notions of luxury and speed [40][50][51] - The demand for seven-seat MPVs has surged due to the two-child and three-child policies, leading to a significant increase in family-oriented vehicle purchases [30][31][33] Group 1: Market Trends - The popularity of seven-seat MPVs, referred to as "baby buses," has evolved from a niche market to a mainstream choice among middle-class families [50][51] - Sales data indicates that in July, the top five MPVs were all new energy vehicles, collectively selling over 35,000 units, which accounted for more than 40% of the market share [41][42] - The price range of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan has become the most attractive segment for consumers, balancing comfort, quality, and practicality [42] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Middle-class consumers are increasingly prioritizing family comfort and safety in their vehicle choices, viewing cars as tools for enhancing family life rather than mere status symbols [50][51] - The concept of the "baby bus" has transcended its original purpose of transporting children, becoming a versatile space for family activities and social gatherings [48][49] - Consumers are willing to invest in features that enhance the family experience, such as spacious interiors and advanced safety technologies, rather than focusing solely on performance metrics [50][51] Group 3: Vehicle Features and Preferences - New energy MPVs are favored for their practicality, with features like hybrid capabilities and spacious interiors becoming essential for family use [31][41] - The design and configuration of these vehicles have evolved to include flexible seating arrangements and amenities that cater to both children and adults, enhancing the overall travel experience [34][36] - The shift towards family-oriented vehicles has led to a redefinition of luxury in the automotive market, where comfort and functionality take precedence over traditional luxury features [50][51]