证券研究报告 天赐材料 (002709 CH) 6F 涨价效应初现，继续看好 2026 年 1 月 06 日│中国内地 电力设备与新能源 公司发布公告，计划于 2026 年 3 月 1 日起，对龙山北基地年产 15 万吨液 体六氟磷酸锂（简称 6F）产线进行停产检修，预计检修时间为 20~30 天。 我们测算 15 万吨液态 6F 折固约 5 万吨，检修 20~30 天约影响供给 2800~4200 吨，我们认为公司在 3 月旺季停产检修或将导致短期供给收缩， 加剧产能紧张，有望推动公司跟大客户 26 年长协涨价落地。25 年 8 月以来 6F 价格呈现上升态势，我们看好供需收紧下 6F 维持高价，大客户长协谈判 有望涨价落地，实现量利齐升，维持"买入"评级。 发布 25 年业绩预告，归母净利超出我们此前预期 公司于 25 年 12 月 31 日发布 25 年业绩预告，25 年全年归母 11.00-16.00 亿 元，中值同比+178.97%，高于我们此前 10.61 亿的预期，扣非 10.50-15.50 亿元，中值+237%；25Q4 归母净利润 6.79-11.79 亿元，中值同/环比 +538%/+5 ...

Group 1 - The China Battery Theme Index decreased by 0.92% as of December 3, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Better Energy up 2.26% and Penghui Energy up 1.60% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on November 28 with key industry players, emphasizing the need to implement decisions to address "involution" competition and promote high-quality development in the battery industry [1] - Huatai Securities forecasts a month-on-month increase in lithium battery production in December, with a 2.3% rise to 143.3 GWh, marking the first month-on-month increase since 2022, driven by strong demand and a significant slowdown in supply [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Battery Theme Index accounted for 55.63%, including major companies like Sungrow Power, CATL, and EVE Energy [2] - The Battery ETF by Harvest (562880) closely tracks the China Battery Theme Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the battery sector [2] - Investors without stock accounts can also access battery industry investment opportunities through the Battery ETF linked fund (016567) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent management changes at Taihe Technology and the ongoing technical transformation of its vinyl carbonate (VC) project, emphasizing the need for stable leadership to enhance market influence and profitability amid a booming lithium battery materials market. Group 1: Management Changes - On November 13, the former general manager, Yao Ya, resigned for personal reasons, and on November 17, Cheng Zhongfa was appointed as the new general manager [1][2] - Yao Ya reduced her shareholding by selling 606,600 shares at an average price of 31.40 yuan, totaling approximately 19.05 million yuan [2] - The company has experienced frequent executive turnover this year, with several high-level resignations due to personal reasons [2][3] Group 2: VC Project Status - The VC project, which has a designed capacity of 10,000 tons per year, is currently undergoing technical modifications and has not yet commenced production [4] - The company plans to adjust the second phase of the VC project based on the market expansion of the first phase, indicating some uncertainty [4] - Taihe Technology's stock price surged by 19.99% on November 13, reflecting investor interest in the lithium battery materials sector [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Taihe Technology reported total revenue of 2.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 88.77 million yuan, up 5.99% year-on-year [5] - However, the company's net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 22.66% year-on-year, indicating potential challenges in core profitability [5] - Investors are hopeful that stable management will accelerate project progress and enhance the company's competitive edge in the lithium battery industry [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has significantly benefited from the rising lithium battery market, with the price increase of hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F) driving a recovery in performance [1] - The company reported a substantial improvement in performance for Q3 2025, with revenue of 38.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.73% [5] - The core electrolyte business is entering an upward cycle with both volume and price increases, and the profitability is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025 [6] - The positive trend in the cathode materials business is expected to become a new growth driver, with the company completing the development of third and fourth generation lithium iron phosphate products [7] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with significant progress in solid-state battery electrolyte research and new projects in Texas and Morocco [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.35 billion yuan, 33.92 billion yuan, and 48.45 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook based on the lithium battery market cycle and rising 6F prices [9] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 108.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.33% [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 171.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 36.7%, and the net profit is expected to reach 12.35 billion yuan [11] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 18.9% in 2024 to 31.4% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the basic chemical industry, highlighting price increases in key products such as folic acid, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and concentrated nitric acid [2]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a turnaround, with the overall weighted operating rate at historical highs and price differentials at the bottom, indicating potential for recovery [15][18]. - The report suggests four investment strategies: prioritize early turnaround stocks, focus on scarce resource products, invest in growth-oriented companies, and target sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [15]. - The tire industry is showing signs of recovery, with major companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and stabilizing raw material costs [16]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced a growth plan for the petrochemical industry, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% from 2025 to 2026 [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors, which are expected to have significant valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [19]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is at 67.92, with a week-on-week increase of 1.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.52% [14]. - Key products with significant price increases include folic acid (+25.8%), lithium hexafluorophosphate (+22.2%), and concentrated nitric acid (+20.1%) [14]. Price and Price Differential Changes - The report notes that the industry price percentile is at 15.54% over the past decade, indicating a relatively low price level [14]. - The industry inventory percentile is at 87.36%, suggesting a high level of inventory compared to historical data [14]. Tracking Basic Chemical Sub-sectors - The report tracks various sub-sectors, including tire, agricultural chemicals, phosphorus chemicals, coal chemicals, and chlor-alkali, providing insights into their performance and market conditions [7]. - The tire industry is highlighted for its recovery potential, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [16]. - The phosphorus chemical sector is noted for favorable policy developments and potential market changes [7][19]. Trading Data - The report includes trading data and performance metrics for various chemical products, indicating trends in supply and demand dynamics [7].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results, as the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose to a 10-year high, while the North Star 50 continued its strong performance, breaking through 1600 points [1] - The market showed a moderate increase in trading volume, with sectors such as new energy, shipping ports, insurance, and coal leading in gains, while sectors like glass fiber, medical beauty, communication equipment, and ground weaponry faced declines [1] New Energy Sector - The new energy industry saw a strong performance, with energy metals leading the charge, and the sector index surged nearly 6%, reaching a new high not seen in two and a half years, with half-day trading volume approaching the previous day's total [3] - Key stocks such as Tianhua New Energy, Jiangte Electric, and Yongxing Materials hit the daily limit or rose over 10%, while wind power equipment, photovoltaic equipment, battery recycling, and lithium mining also showed significant gains [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system, increasing the proportion of new energy supply, and promoting the orderly replacement of fossil energy [5] - Lithium battery electrolyte core material hexafluorophosphate (6F) saw a rapid price increase, reaching 98,000 yuan/ton, up over 66% from the end of September, indicating a tight supply and potential for further price increases [5] - Global photovoltaic installations exceeded 380 GWac in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of over 30%, with domestic installations reaching 240 GW, up 49% year-on-year, accounting for 63% of the global total [5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector saw a significant rally, with the insurance index reaching a historical high, and stocks like New China Life Insurance surged over 4% within an hour of trading, surpassing the previous day's total volume [7] - The China Insurance Industry Association discussed the evaluation interest rate for life insurance products, suggesting a current research value of 1.90%, with expectations for a decrease in the cost of liabilities following the next round of interest rate adjustments in 2025 [9] Banking Sector - The banking sector index rose nearly 1%, with banks like Qingdao Bank, Xiamen Bank, Changshu Bank, and Ningbo Bank leading in gains [10] - Analysts from JPMorgan noted that Chinese bank stocks still hold significant investment value due to stable dividend yields and strong performance in the current interest rate environment [10] - Zhejiang Merchants Securities indicated that with risk appetite stabilizing and risk-free interest rates declining, bank stocks are expected to yield absolute returns in the fourth quarter [10]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced slight adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.44%, ChiNext Index down 0.15%, and the STAR Market 50 Index down 0.84%. Over 2,200 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of approximately 2.15 trillion yuan [2]. Fujian Sector Performance - The Fujian sector saw significant gains, with Haixia Innovation rising by 19.97%, and Pingtan Development, Xiamen Port Authority, and Xiamen Airport all increasing by 10%. During the 2025 World Maritime Equipment Conference, Fujian Province signed 172 projects with a total investment exceeding 200 billion yuan [2]. Military Industry Insights - The military industry showed strong performance, with North China Long Dragon up 16.46% and Great Wall Military Industry up 10%. The growth in military spending and positive expectations for equipment procurement during the 14th Five-Year Plan are anticipated to drive orders in the fourth quarter [3]. New Energy and Lithium Battery Sector - The new energy and lithium battery sectors were active, with Jinyang Galaxy rising by 11.74% and multiple other companies seeing increases. Pacific Securities noted that the recent peak season and the explosion of energy storage are pushing the industry into an upward cycle, with battery production in October increasing by 10% month-on-month [4]. Nuclear Power Sector Developments - The nuclear power sector performed well, with Jieqiang Equipment rising over 10%. The Chinese government shared plans for the "artificial sun," expected to be completed by 2027, which could be the first device to achieve fusion power generation. This is expected to lead to a continuous release of orders in the nuclear power components sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]. Declining Sectors - The precious metals and industrial metals sectors weakened, with Tongling Nonferrous Metals down 10% and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining down 4.3%. The steel, securities, and semiconductor sectors also performed poorly, with Guoyuan Securities down 5.41% and Hanwha Techwin down 3.4% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by strong demand and rising prices, with key companies showing substantial stock price increases [1] Industry Summary - The lithium battery industry is currently in a favorable position with multiple catalysts, including a peak production season and a supply-demand imbalance for materials and energy storage batteries, leading to continuous price increases [1] - October and November are expected to see increased downstream procurement and long-term contracts, clarifying demand projections for 2026 [1] - The third quarter performance of lithium battery companies shows notable growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a positive outlook on materials, particularly 6F, lithium iron phosphate, and battery segments [1] Company Summary - Major companies in the lithium battery sector, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, and Rongjie Co., have seen stock price increases, with Shengxin Lithium Energy reaching the daily limit [1] - Pacific Securities reports that the industry is entering a full upward cycle, with a 10% month-on-month increase in battery production in October, and the top 20 battery manufacturers seeing over a 20% increase [1] - Recent price surges in cobalt-based materials and hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F) have been significant, with 6F spot prices exceeding 75,000 per ton, marking an increase of over 40% [1] - The industry is expected to maintain high prosperity levels from November to December, with the first quarter of 2026 potentially experiencing a "not-so-dull" off-season as the industry transitions from destocking to proactive restocking [1]

Group 1 - The lithium battery industry chain has entered an upward cycle, currently in the first half, with adjustments presenting layout opportunities [1] - Leading manufacturers have a capacity utilization rate exceeding 80%, and capital expenditure has increased by over 30% year-on-year [1] - Export controls primarily target high-end products with an energy density exceeding 300Wh/kg, with limited short-term emotional impact but long-term benefits for strong products with overseas capacity [1] Group 2 - Lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) has entered a price increase cycle, with spot prices rebounding over 8,500 yuan/ton from mid-year lows, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [1] - Many countries are facing "power outage crises" due to aging power grids and extreme weather, leading to a surge in storage demand, with Chinese companies accelerating overseas expansion due to technological and cost advantages [1] Group 3 - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a maximum fluctuation of 20%, focusing on listed companies involved in clean energy production, storage, and application [1] - The index emphasizes companies with technological innovation capabilities and high growth potential, primarily in solar energy, wind energy, electric vehicles, and related equipment manufacturing [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market reached a ten-year high of 3933.97 points, with a significant increase in trading volume to 2.67 trillion yuan and a record net inflow of 18 billion yuan from northbound funds [3] - The surge in the index was primarily driven by the explosive growth in gold and commodity prices, with gold prices exceeding 4100 USD per ounce and a year-to-date increase of over 56% [3][4] - The lithium battery key material, lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F), has started to see price increases, reaching 69,500 yuan per ton, with a 9% rise in just three days [4][5] Group 2 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, driven by the Ministry of Commerce's announcement on export controls [7] - The current market is characterized as a "confidence bull," driven by unexpected policy measures, technological transformation, and national strategy [9] - Investment strategies are diverging, with aggressive investors focusing on high-growth sectors like gold and semiconductors, while conservative investors are opting to take profits and wait for corrections [11]