倒计时42天 2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会 暨十五周年庆典&高工金球奖颁奖典礼 主办单位： 高工锂电、高工产研（GGII） 协办单位： 卡洛维德 总冠名： 海目星激光 年会特别赞助： 大族锂电 专场冠名： 英联复合集流体、逸飞激光、华视集团、欧科工业空调 金球奖全程特约赞助： 思客琦 时间&地点： 2025年11月18-20日 深圳前海华侨城JW万豪酒店 会议合作： 陈女士 13560731836（微信同号） 材料端的 "风向标"六氟磷酸锂（ 6F ）率先进入涨价周期。 多家产业链消息显示，近期 6F 现货报价已上涨至 5.85 万元 / 吨，较年中低点反弹超 8500 元 / 吨，头部企业已暂停报价，供需紧平衡局面正加 速显现。 6F ： 率先触底 反弹的材 料环节 从产业反馈看， 6F 正在成为锂电材料环节中第一个实现供需逆转的品类。 8 月以来， 6F 价格从 5 万元 / 吨抬升至 5.8 万元 / 吨，涨幅超 15% ，本周仍有继续调价预期。 当前行业月度有效产能约 2.45 万吨，而 9 月需求预计已超过 2.3 万吨，供需紧平衡已初步显现。头部三家企业产量占比超 70% 。 而 四季度临近， ...

Core Viewpoint - Substantial demand growth is the direct driver of the current price increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) [2] Supply Side - The price of 6F has entered a rising cycle, with recent spot quotes reaching 58,500 yuan/ton, rebounding over 8,500 yuan/ton from mid-year lows [3] - The current monthly effective production capacity in the industry is approximately 24,500 tons, while September demand is expected to exceed 23,000 tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [6] - Major companies account for over 70% of the production, and the price rebound is not solely driven by lithium carbonate, as the actual price increase of 6F has exceeded the cost increment of 3,000-5,000 yuan/ton associated with lithium carbonate [6] - Limited expansion in supply is noted, with leading companies operating at over 80% capacity utilization, and some second and third-tier companies facing significant losses and low willingness to restart operations [9] - If high-cost production capacity does not resume, there remains a potential upward space of 5,000 yuan/ton for 6F processing fees [9] Demand Side - The explosive growth in energy storage demand is a key factor driving the price increase, with domestic and international energy storage cell production reaching historical highs since July [7] - Major manufacturers are operating at full capacity, and medium-sized integrators are experiencing slight increases in procurement prices for energy storage cells, indicating a transmission of price increases [7] - As the fourth quarter approaches, both domestic and overseas automotive companies are expected to ramp up orders, further boosting demand for lithium materials and 6F [7] - Industry estimates suggest that demand for energy storage and power batteries will maintain over 20% growth through 2025, providing long-term support for 6F [7] Future Outlook - The supply of 6F is expected to enter a tight balance, with a projected supply gap emerging by Q4 2026, potentially leading to stronger price elasticity for 6F [10]

Group 1: AIDC and Wind Power Industry - AIDC supporting equipment benefits from increased capital expenditure by overseas cloud vendors and improved market liquidity, leading to a strong market performance [3][4] - The wind power industry has seen a significant increase in shipment volume in the first half of the year, confirming its high prosperity [3] - Wind turbine prices have stabilized and improved profitability is expected due to cost control and a higher proportion of overseas business [3] Group 2: Electric Power Equipment and Lithium Battery Sector - The electric power equipment sector is experiencing strong demand driven by overseas cloud vendors and North American market needs, with expectations for a surge in orders for high-voltage equipment [4] - The lithium battery sector is focusing on supply-demand balance and industry "de-involution," with certain segments expected to see price increases [4] Group 3: Solar Energy and Energy Storage - Recent bidding results in the solar industry show component prices stabilizing above 0.7 yuan/W, indicating effective price competition regulation [5] - The energy storage sector is gaining attention for its strong performance certainty, with leading companies expected to see upward valuation potential [5] Group 4: Hydrogen Energy - The North American market is seeing a positive trend in the application of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) in data centers, with AI-related orders doubling year-on-year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 revenue reached 3.54 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 118 million RMB, reflecting a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year and 20.9% quarter-on-quarter due to falling lithium carbonate prices impacting profitability [1]. - The report anticipates that the company's electrolyte profitability will gradually improve from Q3 2025 onwards, driven by rising lithium carbonate prices and strong demand during the peak season [2]. - The company is actively pursuing a global industrial layout, including a planned investment of approximately 280 million USD in Morocco for an integrated production base and a joint venture in Texas, USA [3]. - A framework agreement was signed with Chunan New Energy to supply at least 550,000 tons of electrolyte by 2030, which is expected to support future sales volume [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, and a net profit of 270 million RMB, up 12.8% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 230 million RMB, reflecting a 26.0% increase year-on-year [1]. - The report projects the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.08 billion, 1.55 billion, and 2.07 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.23 RMB based on a PE ratio of 39 times for 2025 [5][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolyte market, with expectations of improved profitability as demand stabilizes and supply tightens [1][5]. - The company is also focusing on the development of new materials, including lithium sulfide and solid-state electrolytes, which are anticipated to benefit from future demand growth [4]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company's profitability is expected to improve gradually, supported by the recovery in lithium carbonate prices and the upcoming peak demand season [2]. - The ongoing global expansion efforts, including the planned listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, are expected to enhance the company's competitive position [3].