每经记者｜李可愚 每经编辑｜王可然 近日公布的2018年上半年国民经济运行数据显示，基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供 应业）同比增长7.3%，增速比1~5月份回落2.1个百分点。 在上半年基建投资增速趋缓的大背景下，下半年地方融资和基建投资将面临怎样的态势？7月17日，在 由瑞银举办的"下半年中国宏观经济展望"会议上，瑞银亚洲经济研究联席主管、中国首席经济学家汪涛 对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，在地方融资"堵后门"的同时，应该开一定的"前门"，应该加大地方政府 债务和专项债的发行力度，使得它们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。 而接下来，又该如何协调去杠杆和保证正常融资需求之间的关系？对此，汪涛认为，对地方政府债务的 控制肯定是正确的，这是降低金融风险的方向。 不过，地方政府既然有很多基建，包括PPP项目，如果控制影子信贷或其他各方面的融资，那么在"堵 后门"的同时就应该开一定的"前门"，地方政府债务（显性债务）、专项债，应该加大发行力度，使它 们不要走更多更隐蔽的"后门"。"我们认为这方面对PPP项目、对地方融资渠道可能也会有一定调整，使 得下半年，尤其四季度之后基建投资可能走稳。"汪涛这样向记者表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 5, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system, with a focus on medium-term liquidity support [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 5, the PBOC will conduct a 700 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1]. - In November, there will be 700 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos maturing, indicating a continuation of the same amount of operations [1]. - An additional 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos is expected to mature in November, with a high likelihood of another 6-month reverse repo operation being conducted [1][2]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC's actions are in response to potential liquidity tightening due to various factors, including the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds and the expiration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments [2]. - The central bank aims to stabilize the funding environment and support government bond issuance while encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [2][3]. - The PBOC may also consider rolling over or slightly increasing the 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) due in November [2]. Group 3: Bond Market and Economic Stability - The PBOC resumed net purchases of government bonds in October, indicating improved conditions in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.8% [3]. - The resumption of government bond trading is expected to enhance long-term liquidity support for the banking system and signal a commitment to stabilizing economic growth [3]. - The central bank has sufficient operational space to implement various monetary policy tools to support economic stability in the upcoming quarters [3].

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，10月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1648亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1648亿元，中标量1648亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日4090亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼2442亿元。当周全口径净回笼（包国库现金）6979亿元。 Wind数据显示，10月20日至24日当周，央行公开市场将有7891亿元逆回购到期，其中周一至周五分别到期2538亿元、910亿元、435亿元、2360亿元、 1648亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 资金面方面， 银行间市场资金面稳定宽松，存款类机构隔夜回购利率在1.31%附近窄幅波动；匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价稍有变化，从此前的 1.3%多数时间的单一价位，扩展到1.3%-1.34%区间，且供给有所减少。非银机构以存单及信用债等抵押融入隔夜，报价集中在1.4%-1.43%，较上日小幅 上行。交易员称，目前看不到更多的不利因素，本月税期较晚，在此之前预计压力有限；不过整体宽松局面下，还需要关注匿名隔夜报价的量、价波动。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.29%。 （IM ...

Group 1: Economic and Fiscal Overview - In 2024, the central general public budget revenue is projected to be 100,462.06 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget [1] - The central general public budget expenditure is expected to be 141,055.9 billion yuan, completing 97.9% of the budget [1] - The central fiscal deficit is aligned with the budget, with national debt issuance of 125,673.61 billion yuan and local government debt issuance of 98,042.14 billion yuan, both within approved limits [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The government plans to increase local government debt limits by 60,000 billion yuan to replace hidden debts, reducing the total hidden debt to 23,000 billion yuan by the end of 2028 [2] - A special long-term bond issuance of 10,000 billion yuan is arranged to support consumption and investment, with 3,000 billion yuan allocated for fiscal interest subsidies [2] - The sales of replaced automobiles and home appliances are expected to exceed 6.8 million and 62 million units respectively, generating over 13,000 billion yuan in sales [2] Group 3: Technological and Industrial Development - The report highlights a 22.2% increase in integrated circuit production in 2024, with export value surpassing 1,100 billion yuan [5] - The high-tech manufacturing industry's added value is projected to grow by 8.9%, accounting for 16.3% of total industrial output [5] - The production of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 13 million units, maintaining a global leadership position for ten consecutive years [5] Group 4: Green Development and Innovation - By April 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances is expected to reach 640 million tons, with a total transaction value of 44.05 billion yuan [6] - Non-fossil energy consumption is projected to account for 19.8% of total energy consumption [6] - The financial support for high-tech enterprises is expected to reach 15.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [6] Group 5: Talent Development and Education - The total number of high-skilled talents in the country has exceeded 60 million, supported by initiatives in higher education and vocational training [7] - The government is focusing on cultivating top talent in foundational disciplines and establishing specialized colleges in key technology areas [7] - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth is projected to reach 69.7% in 2024, highlighting the importance of the domestic market [7]