中国智能驾驶的普及进程，在2025年迎来关键阶段：正式从"量产蓄力"迈入"规模爆发"的新周期。 行业数据显示，2025年前10个月，国内乘用车城市NOA硬件预埋与标配总搭载量达239.2万辆，同比增 长62.8%，渗透率持续快速提升。曾经主要用于高端车型的城市NOA功能，正加速走向更多普通消费 者，成为大众化、普及型的核心配置。在这一规模化普及的浪潮中，以Momenta、华为为代表的第三方 智驾供应商凭借领先的技术与规模优势，不仅在国内市场取得领先优势，也逐步获得全球汽车品牌的认 可与合作，推动着中国智能驾驶供应链全球竞争力跃升。 2025年，城市NOA的规模化渗透呈现加速态势，其背后是技术成熟、供给增加与需求觉醒的三重共 振。自主品牌是推动渗透的核心引擎，比亚迪、吉利、奇瑞等头部车企通过"主力车型标配"策略，将高 阶智驾功能从30万元以上市场快速下沉至20万元乃至15万元级车型，实现了技术普及与市场教育的双重 目标。 与此同时，合资品牌厚积薄发，丰田、日产、梅赛德斯-奔驰、宝马等全球品牌纷纷选择与Momenta等 中国头部智驾供应商合作，加速智能化转型，以丰田铂智3X为代表的多款搭载先进城市NOA的车型， ...

Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market is experiencing unprecedented vitality and resilience due to various transformative forces, with a focus on the industry's ability to identify and solve problems [1][2]. Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Market - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China reached 53.6% in the first 11 months of 2025, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth [4]. - The number of new car models launched in 2025 exceeded 200, showcasing the industry's strength and providing diverse options for consumers [5]. - Major NEV manufacturers have established comprehensive product platforms, enabling rapid iteration and performance enhancement across various models [6]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Significant advancements in foundational technologies, such as intelligent chassis systems, are enhancing the overall level of the NEV industry [7]. - The performance of pure electric vehicles has improved, with extended driving ranges and enhanced safety features, addressing consumer concerns [8]. - Range-extended vehicles have also seen performance improvements, with some models achieving over 1000 kilometers of range [9]. Group 3: Autonomous Driving and AI Integration - The first batch of Level 3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle licenses was issued, marking a new phase in the commercialization of autonomous driving in China [10]. - AI technology is being integrated into smart cockpit systems, enhancing user interaction and experience [11]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards cognitive intelligence, allowing vehicles to understand and respond to complex commands [23]. Group 4: Domestic Brand Performance - Domestic brands captured a market share of 69.6% in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting their growing competitiveness [13]. - High-end NEV sales have been dominated by domestic brands, indicating their increasing strength in the premium segment [14]. - Domestic brands are expanding internationally, with significant export growth and market penetration in Europe and Southeast Asia [15]. Group 5: Brand Image and Communication - Automotive leaders are increasingly engaging with consumers through relatable narratives, moving away from traditional high-end marketing [39]. - The industry is addressing issues of "involution" and promoting high-quality development to avoid harmful price competition [40][41]. - Companies are adopting transparent communication strategies to build trust and address safety concerns following incidents involving autonomous driving technologies [44][46].

12月20日，重庆市公安局交通管理总队将首块L3级自动驾驶专用正式号牌"渝AD0001Z"交给长安汽车 副总裁、深蓝汽车董事长邓承浩（右一）。 12月20日，重庆市公安局交通管理总队将首块L3级自动驾驶专用正式号牌"渝AD0001Z"交给长安汽车 副总裁、深蓝汽车董事长邓承浩，吸引了业内外人士的广泛关注。 前不久，工业和信息化部正式附条件批准了两家企业关于搭载L3级有条件自动驾驶功能的产品准入申 请，标志着中国在自动驾驶这一战略性技术领域的管理实践取得重要进展，为整个产业的智能化进阶摁 下了"启动键"。 为高阶自动驾驶提供产业纵深 "自2009年组建智能化研发团队以来，长安汽车历经7代技术迭代，首块L3级自动驾驶专用正式号牌授 予长安，是长安汽车四十余年造车底蕴与智能化转型成果的集中体现，诠释长安汽车对安全底线的坚 守。"正如邓承浩所言，此次L3级自动驾驶准入许可的突破绝非偶然，其背后是中国汽车产业在智能化 赛道上持续投入与系统化布局所构建的强大产业纵深。 近年来，随着"软件定义汽车"成为行业共识，以L2级高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）为代表的功能已从高 端车型的卖点演变为主流新车的标配。据统计，今年前三季度， ...

中信证券认为，2025年是智能驾驶行业加速渗透的一年，随着龙头企业开启"智驾平权"的战略，测算中 国乘用车行业高速NOA（导航辅助驾驶）和城市NOA渗透率分别达到16%和14%，销量约为363万辆、 333万辆。2026年，预测高速NOA、城市NOA渗透率将分别达到21%和22%。自动驾驶加速渗透带来头 部智驾公司、上游产业链、L4公司的投资机会。 平安证券认为，1）自动驾驶技术走向量产应用。2）当前获批的L3车型的运行条件还存在诸多限制。 3）智能驾驶的商业化进程有望在2026年加速。尽管目前L3车型的运行条件还存在诸多限制，但此次L3 车型的准入获批意味着智驾在技术、政策端的进步，为后续智驾的商业化进程奠定基础。2026年智能驾 驶的商业闭环有望进一步打通。 据新华社消息，12月20日，国内首块L3级自动驾驶专用正式号牌"渝AD0001Z"在重庆诞生，由重庆市 公安局交通管理总队正式授予长安汽车，标志着长安汽车在国内率先开启L3级自动驾驶时代。 ...

中信证券认为，2025年是智能驾驶行业加速渗透的一年，随着龙头企业开启"智驾平权"的战略，测算中 国乘用车行业高速NOA(导航辅助驾驶)和城市NOA渗透率分别达到16%和14%，销量约为363万辆、333 万辆。2026年，预测高速NOA、城市NOA渗透率将分别达到21%和22%。自动驾驶加速渗透带来头部智 驾公司、上游产业链、L4公司的投资机会。 我国自动驾驶产业迎来历史时刻。12月15日，工业和信息化部宣布，我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车 型获得产品准入许可。极狐汽车与长安汽车（000625）的两款纯电动轿车分别获得资质，将在北京、重 庆指定区域开展上路试点。 平安证券认为，1)自动驾驶技术走向量产应用。2)当前获批的L3车型的运行条件还存在诸多限制。3)智 能驾驶的商业化进程有望在2026年加速。尽管目前L3车型的运行条件还存在诸多限制，但此次L3车型 的准入获批意味着智驾在技术、政策端的进步，为后续智驾的商业化进程奠定基础。2026年智能驾驶的 商业闭环有望进一步打通。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that smart driving is currently undervalued and is transitioning from a future concept to a core competitive factor in the automotive industry, as the market shifts focus from electrification to smart driving technologies [5][14]. Industry Analysis - Smart driving is at a stage where technological feasibility has been validated, but commercial scale is yet to be fully realized, indicating a ripe opportunity for long-term investors [7]. - The industry is moving from exploratory phases to cost and efficiency optimization, which is a significant signal for accelerated commercialization [8]. - The essence of smart driving lies in platform capabilities rather than mere functional upgrades, highlighting the importance of a comprehensive system that includes hardware, algorithms, and data platforms [10]. Commercialization Path - Revenue sources and realization timelines in the smart driving sector are becoming clearer, with high-level driving transitioning from one-time sales to subscription models, enhancing profit quality [11][12]. - Applications of smart driving technology are already being implemented in various business scenarios, such as ports and logistics, providing a solid revenue foundation [13]. Investment Opportunities - In the Hong Kong stock market, companies with comprehensive smart driving capabilities are limited, with Baidu being a notable example due to its long-term strategic investments and unique data accumulation capabilities [15]. - Companies like Pony.ai and WeRide serve as critical benchmarks for the industry's potential, focusing on complex urban driving scenarios and L4-level automation, which could unlock significant replication potential if successful [16][17]. Strategic Approach - The smart driving theme is better suited for long-term investment strategies rather than short-term trading, with a focus on platform companies that maintain stable cash flows while investing in smart driving [22]. - The article concludes that smart driving represents a gradual but inevitable trend, with real opportunities arising from a deep understanding of the industry and companies before market sentiment fully aligns [23][24].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，预计2026年汽车行业以旧换新政策延续的概率较大，但 Q1行业或仍将面临一段时间的需求透支期。建议投资人聚焦具有全球竞争力的中国企业，全面拥抱产 业新趋势。2026年上半年有望跑赢的投资标的包括：1)出海景气延续、出海盈利弹性大的乘用车和商用 车龙头企业;2)自动驾驶加速渗透带来的头部智驾公司、上游产业链、L4公司的投资机会;3)人形机器人 的产业趋势，将继续为板块提供业绩和估值的双重驱动，建议聚焦特斯拉等人形机器人企业的上游核心 零部件公司。 中信证券主要观点如下： 乘用车总量：以旧换新政策有望延续，2026Q1或是行业最差时间，优先选择出海品种进行长期布局。 根据中汽协数据，2025年1-10月，我国乘用车批发销量为2417万辆，同比+12.8%，新能源乘用车批发销 量为1218万辆，同比+32%，渗透率为50.4%。今年乘用车同比增长超预期，主要受益于以旧换新补贴政 策的延续、海外多个市场出口销量的增长。根据商务部发布的1-11月补贴总量数据，预计2025全年总补 贴申请合计将达1240万份，预计总补贴金额将达1650亿元，对2025年的实际销量增量拉动可能达 ...

Core Viewpoint - Momenta, a Chinese autonomous driving technology developer, has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a current valuation of $6 billion (approximately 42.54 billion RMB) [2] Group 1: Company Background - Momenta has a financing history spanning 9 years, attracting significant capital from various investors, including major industry players like SAIC Motor, Toyota, and Bosch, as well as well-known investment firms such as Temasek, Yunfeng Capital, Tencent, and others [2] - The company was founded in 2016 and focuses on providing autonomous driving features such as high-speed and urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) and memory parking to major automotive manufacturers, including SAIC's Zhiji, BYD, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Chery, and Audi [3] Group 2: IPO Considerations - There have been rumors about Momenta changing its IPO listing location from New York to Hong Kong, influenced by ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations and threats from US lawmakers regarding the delisting of Chinese companies from US exchanges [2] - Momenta received regulatory approval for a US listing in mid-2024, but this approval will expire in June 2025, which is considered a direct reason for the company's consideration of changing its listing location [3] - In response to the rumors, Momenta has stated that the information is not accurate and that no final decisions have been made regarding the IPO, including details about the listing location, timing, fundraising scale, and valuation [3]

Core Insights - The sudden halt of Haomo Zhixing, China's first company to achieve mass production of autonomous driving technology, highlights structural issues within the autonomous driving industry, indicating that it is not an isolated failure but part of a broader trend [2][4] Industry Overview - The autonomous driving sector in China has transitioned from a "trial and error" phase to a "clearing" phase, with the collapse of Haomo Zhixing serving as a significant indicator of this shift [4][5] - The industry previously thrived in a "vacuum" environment where capital was abundant, car manufacturers were willing to invest in technology, and consumers were eager to try new innovations [5] Market Dynamics - The narrative around "software subscription monetization" has collapsed, with consumers' willingness to pay for advanced driving features at an all-time low, as many features have become standard or free [5][6] - Major players like Tesla are also facing challenges, with only about 12% of their existing fleet utilizing the Full Self-Driving (FSD) service, indicating a broader trend of declining subscription revenues [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The market is witnessing a shift towards "free" autonomous driving features, with companies like BYD offering advanced driving capabilities at significantly lower prices, thus altering the pricing structure of the industry [6][7] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a clear division emerging between top-tier players with comprehensive ecosystems and smaller companies struggling to find their place [14][15] Company-Specific Issues - Haomo Zhixing's downfall is attributed to its inability to adapt to the rapidly changing industry dynamics, including a failure to scale operations and innovate in a timely manner [8][10] - The company experienced significant leadership turnover and a drastic reduction in workforce, which hindered its ability to respond to market changes effectively [9][10] Future Outlook - The autonomous driving industry is entering a phase where sustainable business models and cost efficiency will be critical for survival, moving away from reliance on capital investment [14][15] - Companies that can balance cost structures while providing quality experiences will be better positioned to thrive in the new market environment [15]

毫末智行只是第一批倒下的独角兽， 却不会是最后一个。 今年11月下旬，中国首个实现自动驾驶技术量产的公司——毫末智行突然宣布全员停工。 这家成立六年，估值曾炒到10亿美元的智能驾驶独角兽，最终没能挺过这个冬天。在不少人看来，毫末智行倒在了技术掉队、订单被抢的行业攻防战之 中。但如果只把毫末智行的"停摆"理解为某家公司的失败，反而忽略了智能驾驶行业真正的结构性问题——支撑中国智驾过去五年高歌猛进的几乎所有前 提，都在同一时间"失效"。 毫末智行只是第一批倒下的独角兽，却不会是最后一个。 智能驾驶： 从"试错期"进入"清算期" 面对毫末智行的"停摆"，外界的第一反应大多是"怎么会来得这么突然？"但在行业内部，真正了解自动驾驶商业逻辑的人反而不会那么意外。要理解毫末 智行迎来"停摆"的必然性，需要从行业本身的周期变化说起。过去五年，中国智能驾驶跑在一个"真空"环境里。资本愿意补贴未来，车企愿意押注技术， 用户愿意尝鲜技术。 这三大基础像是三根支撑整个赛道的梁木，虽然独木难支却互相牵引、制衡，让整个行业维持着高速发展。然而到了2024年，这三根梁木同时"断裂"。 当标配成为主流，行业也对订阅商业模式的前景彻底"祛魅" ...