Workflow
全球货币体系变革
icon
Search documents
布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来金价涨了102倍, 黄金缘何成为全球最“赚钱”大类资产?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-08 13:08
金价终于破4000美元/盎司了! 10月7日(北京时间),受美元疲软、地缘争端等因素影响,COMEX黄金期货日内最高报价强势突破4000美元/盎司;10 月8日,伦敦金跟随突破4000美元/盎司。黄金跻身全球最赚钱的大类资产之一。 高盛认为,近期金价上涨主要反映了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金:快速增长的西方ETF仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购 买以及投机仓位的提升。 高盛最新报告指出,新兴市场央行将持续通过增持黄金实现外汇储备的结构性多元化,预计2025年和2026年新兴市场央 行黄金净购买量将分别平均达到80吨和70吨。基于这一趋势,高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测从4300美元/盎司上调至 4900美元/盎司。 回顾过去三十多年的金融市场主要资产走势,就会发现一个"有趣"且值得回味的现象——1990年以来,截至今年9月底, 黄金价格累计涨幅(866.87%)大幅跑赢WTI原油期货(172.74%)、LME铜期货(336.94%)与CBOT大豆期货 (-21.69%)。 若将投资时间进一步拉长至1970年代布雷顿森林体系瓦解起,截至今年9月底,黄金价格累计涨幅更是达到10204%,大 幅跑赢同期美元指数(- ...
东盟金库大迁徙!将黄金交中国保存,终结美元霸权?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 14:47
东盟可能将黄金交给中国保存,美元的霸主地位真的要彻底终结了吗?这事并非空穴来风。 据彭博社报道,中国正通过上海黄金交易所吸引友好国家来华购买黄金,并将黄金托管在中国境内。 已有东盟国家开始筹备此事,引发全球投资者热议。若该计划推进,全球货币体系或将迎来翻天覆地的变化。 为何如此断言?先给出一个关键结论:在当今世界,掌握黄金储备权,一定程度上等同于掌握全球货币话语权。要理解这一点,需回顾美元如何成为世界货 币的历史。 学过历史的朋友都知道,这与布雷顿森林体系密切相关——该体系规定美元与黄金挂钩(35美元=1盎司黄金),其他货币与美元挂钩,由此美元成为全球 黄金的托管人。 各国开展贸易时,要么持有黄金,要么持有美元。最便捷的方式就是将黄金存放在美国的金库里,以便随时兑换美元使用。 但近年来风向已变,各国对继续在美国存储黄金的态度出现巨大分歧,主要有两方面原因:其一,美国国债规模已突破36万亿美元,债务黑洞持续扩大;其 二,美国频繁将美元武器化。 例如,俄罗斯被制裁后,不仅被移出SWIFT系统,3000亿美元外汇储备遭冻结;而全球最大金库——美国诺克斯堡的黄金储备,半个多世纪从未公开审计, 连特朗普、马斯克都质疑其 ...
黄金突破3700美元,热潮能否延续?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 05:40
来源:市场投研资讯 长期视角下,黄金的价值重估与全球货币体系变革深度绑定。各国央行持续增持黄金的行为,本质上是 对现有美元主导体系的不信任投票。 (来源:金信基金) Wind数据显示,周二(9月16日)纽约尾盘,现货黄金涨0.36%,报3691.94美元/盎司,盘中一度刷新历 史高位至3703.13美元,随后回吐日内稍早涨幅。 消息面 比降息周期更长的周期是全球的"去美元化"。央行行长潘功胜今日在《求是》发文,回顾了国际货币体 系的历史演进,指出当前由一国(美国)主权货币来承担国际主导货币的职能存在内在的不稳定问题。 他还指出,当前针对国际货币体系的讨论聚焦于如何弱化对单一主权货币的过度依赖和负面影响,形成 少数强势主权货币的良性竞争和激励约束机制。 信息来自于:每日经济新闻 未来展望:3700 美元是起点还是中途站? 站在 3700 美元的历史高位,黄金的未来走势取决于三大变量:美联储降息周期的长度、地缘政治风险 的演化,以及全球经济重构的速度。对于投资者而言,需要在狂热的市场情绪中保持理性判断。 短期焦点无疑是美联储9月利率决议。市场普遍预期的25个基点降息已部分反映在当前价格中,但若出 现50个基点的超 ...
机构解读:稳定币发展提速 或重塑全球货币体系格局
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-06-25 02:35
Core Insights - The report by Huatai Securities analyzes the rapid development of stablecoins, their potential impact, and future trends, indicating that stablecoins are moving from the periphery of innovation to the mainstream financial system, which may profoundly affect the global monetary landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The market size of stablecoins has surged from $5 billion in 2020 to $250 billion currently, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100%, and transaction volumes nearing $37 trillion [3]. - It is conservatively estimated that in 10 years, the stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion, increasing its share of global off-chain settlement from 0.4% to 3%-4% [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has optimistic projections, suggesting that by the end of 2029, the market value of stablecoins could reach between $3.5 trillion and $4 trillion [3]. Group 2: Dominance and Future Trends - In the short term, dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate the market due to their first-mover advantage, but in the medium to long term, network effects may lead to the rise of euro, yen, pound, and even renminbi stablecoins [3]. - If stablecoin reserves include credit-creating assets like bonds, it could trigger credit expansion similar to "shadow banking" [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Considerations - Although stablecoins are not government-backed currencies, changes in the risk premium of underlying assets (like U.S. Treasuries) could lead to liquidity risks, especially as U.S. fiscal sustainability and external account balance issues become more pronounced [4]. - For Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, it is recommended to expand the reserve asset pool, particularly by enhancing the allocation of high-liquidity fixed-income products beyond cash [4]. - The report emphasizes that the rise of stablecoins is both a product of technological innovation and a catalyst for changes in the global monetary system, with regulatory coordination and risk management of underlying assets being crucial for their development [4].
黄金价格剑指4000美元?地缘冲突叠加金融动荡催生避险资产周期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 16:31
Core Viewpoint - Recent predictions from multiple authoritative institutions suggest that gold prices may exceed $4,000 per ounce due to a confluence of factors, including geopolitical tensions and changes in the global monetary system [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalating Israel-Iran tensions, have led to a sustained increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - The normalization of geopolitical risks has made the demand for gold a long-term theme, with recent events like the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities further exacerbating the situation [2]. Group 2: Monetary System Changes - The deep transformation of the global monetary system, particularly the anticipated shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, is putting the U.S. dollar's credit system to the test [2]. - Central banks around the world are increasingly accumulating gold reserves, with 2023 witnessing the second-highest level of gold purchases by central banks in history, providing solid support for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Financial Attributes of Gold - Gold's role as an important investment tool has been reinforced by the development of financial derivatives such as futures and ETFs, which significantly amplify the leverage effect of capital [2]. - The volatility of gold prices has increased, but the overall trend remains upward due to these financial dynamics [2]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - For ordinary investors, the current gold market presents both opportunities and risks, with a recommendation to increase gold asset allocation to hedge against systemic risks [6]. - It is crucial for non-professional investors to avoid excessive participation in derivative trading due to the amplified volatility of gold [6]. - The fundamental factors influencing long-term gold price trends include actual interest rates and the direction of the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [6].
陆前进:美元动摇,全球货币体系迎来变革
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-22 22:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant declines in the US stock, bond, and currency markets, highlighting the impact of the US government's tariff measures on market confidence in the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On April 21, the US markets experienced a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with major stock indices dropping over 2% [1]. - The ICE dollar index (DXY) fell to a low of 97.92, the lowest since April 2022 [1]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 7.74 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by 8.6 basis points, with the 2-year/10-year yield spread widening to approximately 65 basis points, the largest in over three years [1]. Group 2: Trade Deficit and Financial Accounts - The US is characterized as a net capital-importing country, with foreign financial assets amounting to approximately $34.4 trillion and liabilities of $54.3 trillion, resulting in a net foreign asset position of -$19.9 trillion [2]. - The US maintains a current account deficit while experiencing a financial account surplus, indicating that it imports more goods than it exports but attracts significant capital inflows [2][3]. Group 3: Implications of Tariff Policies - The current US government's attempt to reduce trade deficits through tariffs may backfire, potentially undermining the dollar's international role and creditworthiness [4]. - Since 2001, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% to below 58%, indicating a potential shift in global currency dynamics [4]. Group 4: Future Currency Trends - The decline in confidence in the dollar may lead to increased prominence of other currencies such as the euro and the renminbi, as these currencies gain traction in global trade and investment [4][5]. - There is a possibility of enhanced regional currency cooperation, with entities like the EU and BRICS nations potentially promoting their currencies to strengthen economic stability and competitiveness [5].