2025年是字节App工厂迎来收获的一年：豆包以过亿日活领跑AI应用赛道，红果短剧月活迈过2亿门槛，汽水音乐月活数据开始逼近网易云音乐，曾经 的"弃子"多闪重回社交榜榜首…… 然而，字节所构建的娱乐+AI城池并非固若金汤，后方大本营抖音反而可能成为最薄弱之处。 去年10月，OpenAI上线基于Sora 2视频模型的短视频应用Sora App，仅用五天下载量就突破百万，在媒体眼中，这款"AI版TikTok"有望成为下一代短视频 平台。虽然因为用户留存率一路走低，Sora App的爆发之势未能持续，但想必给字节敲响了一记警钟。 在国内，虽然豆包目前保持断层领先，但通过天量投放强势曝光的千问也不容小觑，AI视频玩法成了千问试图"弯道超车"的法宝之一。而可灵AI已经成熟 的创作者社区，更是孕育出"国产版Sora App"的天然土壤。 有了上面的背景，当我们在App Store发现了一款名为"随变"的新应用时，就一点也不感到惊讶了。虽然"随变"的定位是抖音旗下潮流玩法社区，但从AI形 象、AI合拍等核心玩法来看，字节无疑希望将其打造成为一款AI玩法激荡碰撞，吸引更多用户投身其中的AI视频社区。 对于字节而言，"随变"的 ...

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance is aggressively pursuing AI hardware solutions, particularly through collaborations with smartphone manufacturers, to enhance its AI capabilities and create a controlled hardware entry point for its applications [4][5][7]. Group 1: AI Hardware Strategy - ByteDance's recent partnership with ZTE to launch an AI smartphone has garnered significant attention, reflecting a strategy similar to "Huawei's car manufacturing" approach, where the company focuses on software and AI rather than direct hardware production [4][5]. - The company is also developing AI glasses, with plans for a potential release next year, indicating a broader commitment to hardware innovation [4]. - ByteDance's AI application, Doubao, has seen a dramatic increase in daily token usage, growing from 120 billion in May 2022 to 30 trillion by September 2023, marking a 253-fold increase [5][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - ByteDance's Doubao has consistently ranked at the top of AI applications in China, showcasing the company's strength in leveraging traffic from its C-end applications to support its AI infrastructure [5][6]. - The daily token usage of Doubao is comparable to major competitors, with Google at 43 trillion and Baidu around 10 trillion, highlighting ByteDance's competitive position in the AI market [6]. - The collaboration with smartphone manufacturers allows ByteDance to validate its AI capabilities at a lower cost while integrating deeply with the operating system for enhanced user experience [7]. Group 3: Challenges in Hardware Development - ByteDance's history in hardware has been tumultuous, with previous attempts such as the Smartisan phone and Pico VR facing various challenges and adjustments [8][9]. - The acquisition of Pico was initially seen as a significant move, akin to Facebook's acquisition of Oculus, but the business faced setbacks and leadership changes, leading to a period of stagnation [9]. - The recent acquisition of the Oladance headphone team and the subsequent launch of the Ola Friend product indicate a sense of urgency in expanding hardware offerings, despite mixed user feedback on the product's effectiveness [10]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Ecosystem Integration - The success of the AI smartphone hinges on the integration of a rich ecosystem alongside the hardware, as past failures in AI hardware often stemmed from a lack of supporting content and applications [12]. - ByteDance's AI smartphone aims to provide a seamless user experience by allowing cross-application automation, positioning itself as a potential disruptor to traditional app engagement models [12][13]. - Concerns regarding user engagement and financial security have emerged, with reports of risk control measures being implemented on financial applications following the smartphone's release [13][14].

Core Insights - Doubao has launched a new product, Doubao Input Method, aiming to disrupt the traditional input method market dominated by WeChat and other established players [1][5] - The input method market has seen limited innovation until the introduction of WeChat Input Method in 2022, which quickly gained popularity due to WeChat's vast user base [1][3] - Doubao Input Method leverages advanced voice recognition technology as its main selling point, differentiating itself from competitors by focusing on user experience and AI capabilities [3][7] Product Features - Doubao Input Method emphasizes voice input, retaining only Pinyin input while removing traditional features like handwriting and skin management to highlight its AI strengths [8][12] - The application is designed to be user-friendly, with a layout similar to WeChat Input Method, making it easier for users to switch [6] - It utilizes the Seed - ASR2.0 model for voice recognition, which can understand context, recognize specialized terms, and filter out background noise effectively [7][8] Competitive Landscape - Doubao has a monthly active user base of 170 million, but still lags behind WeChat's 1.4 billion users, creating a long-term challenge for Doubao in the AI application space [3][5] - Tencent is actively enhancing WeChat's capabilities, including the integration of AI features, which poses a potential threat to Doubao's growth [4][14] - Doubao's strategy involves positioning itself as a tool within WeChat, aiming to attract new users by addressing WeChat's weaknesses [4][5] Market Dynamics - Doubao's approach is characterized by agility and rapid iteration, allowing it to respond quickly to market demands and user feedback, unlike WeChat, which must consider the broader implications of changes due to its large user base [21][20] - The competition between Doubao and WeChat highlights a fundamental difference in their operational philosophies: Doubao seeks to innovate aggressively, while WeChat prioritizes stability and gradual improvements [21][20]

Core Insights - Soul, a social platform founded by Zhang Lu in 2015, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its attempt to go public after previous unsuccessful attempts [1][5][6] - The platform, which focuses on "soulful socializing" without relying on user contacts or emphasizing appearance, has seen significant growth in its user base, particularly among Generation Z [3][6] - Despite its growth, Soul faces challenges in a competitive market that has shifted away from the once-thriving stranger socialization sector, which is now experiencing a deep reshuffle [1][5] Company Overview - Soul was founded by Zhang Lu, who previously worked in consulting and identified a gap in the market for a social product focused on emotional expression [2][3] - The platform launched in 2016 with a mission to eliminate loneliness, utilizing interest tests and algorithmic matching for user interactions [3] - Soul's user base has grown to approximately 390 million registered users, with daily active users reaching 11 million, 78.7% of whom are from Generation Z [6] Financial Performance - Soul's revenue has shown a steady increase, with figures of 16.67 billion RMB in 2022, 18.46 billion RMB in 2023, and projected 22.11 billion RMB in 2024 [6][7] - The company achieved profitability in 2023, with an adjusted net profit of 3.37 billion RMB projected for 2024, and 2.86 billion RMB for the first eight months of 2023, reflecting a 73% year-on-year growth [6][7] - The primary revenue source is from "AI-driven emotional value services," including virtual goods and membership privileges, contributing over 90% of total revenue [7][8] Market Position and Challenges - Soul's major shareholders include Tencent, which holds a 49.9% stake, and other notable investors like miHoYo and various venture capital firms [9] - The platform's unique selling proposition of "soul matching" has been criticized for fostering environments conducive to scams and inappropriate content, leading to past regulatory scrutiny [9] - The broader social media landscape remains competitive, with various companies attempting to capture market share in the stranger socialization space, which has seen declining user engagement in established platforms [10][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming IPO of the social platform Soul, highlighting its journey, financial performance, and the challenges it faces in the competitive landscape of social networking [2][8][10]. Company Background - Soul was founded in 2015 by Zhang Lu, who aimed to create a platform for emotional expression and social interaction among strangers, differentiating itself from traditional social media [3][4]. - The platform gained significant attention in 2018 with the introduction of a voice matching feature, leading to a peak of over 10 million monthly active users [7]. Financial Performance - Soul reported revenues of 1.67 billion RMB in 2022, projected to grow to 2.21 billion RMB in 2024, with a 17.8% year-on-year increase in the first eight months of 2023 [8][9]. - The company achieved profitability in 2023, with an adjusted net profit of 2.86 billion RMB in the first eight months, marking a 73% increase [8][9]. User Demographics - As of August 31, 2025, Soul expects to have approximately 390 million registered users, with 78.7% belonging to Generation Z [8][10]. - The average revenue per paying user (ARPU) reached 104.4 RMB, indicating a strong monetization strategy focused on virtual goods and membership privileges [9][10]. Market Challenges - The social networking space is undergoing significant changes, with Soul facing competition from established players and new entrants, as well as challenges related to user trust and content moderation [11][12]. - The platform has been criticized for issues related to anonymity, leading to concerns about scams and inappropriate content, which have affected its reputation [11][12]. Industry Trends - The article notes a resurgence of interest in social networking among major tech companies, with new AI-driven social applications emerging to cater to the emotional needs of users [12][13]. - The landscape of social interaction is shifting, with younger users gravitating towards platforms that offer more immersive and less traditional forms of engagement [13][14].

2025年11月，App Store的榜单上出现了一个令人意外的名字：字节跳动旗下的社交应用"多闪"，在沉寂许久后，它不仅重返大众视野，更是登顶社交 应用榜首，在免费总榜中也跻身前列。 多闪并非一款横空出世的新品，而是一个几乎被市场遗忘的"旧将"。它的这次回归，并非偶然的运气，而是字节这座超级流量工厂经过精密计算与战略 调整后，对其社交生态进行的一次关键补位。 六年前，多闪的初次亮相承载着字节跳动在社交领域的宏大野心。作为其首款独立社交产品，它从诞生之初就被置于聚光灯下，使命明确——挑战当时如 日中天的微信。然而，这场备受瞩目的"首战"并未成功，多闪在经历短暂的高光时刻后迅速沉寂，经历数次产品转型但终究未能掀起波澜，甚至一度传 出过停止研发的消息。 在市场风头全都被AI产品抢去的2025年，多闪却悄无声息重新杀回社交舞台的中央。多闪重新被"委以重任"，背后不仅是字节的社交实验终于找准了适 合自己的方向，也潜藏着及在AI时代重构社交版图的野心。 在App Store免费总榜上，在年初的骤起骤落之后，多闪一直在百名之外起起伏伏，直到11月连续三个版本更新才终于一跃而起，直接升至10名之内， 与豆包、红果短剧、汽水 ...

2025年11月，App Store的榜单上出现了一个令人意外的名字：字节跳动旗下的社交应用"多闪"，在沉寂许久后，它不仅重返大众视野，更是登顶社交应用 榜首，在免费总榜中也跻身前列。 多闪并非一款横空出世的新品，而是一个几乎被市场遗忘的"旧将"。它的这次回归，并非偶然的运气，而是字节这座超级流量工厂经过精密计算与战略调 整后，对其社交生态进行的一次关键补位。 六年前，多闪的初次亮相承载着字节跳动在社交领域的宏大野心。作为其首款独立社交产品，它从诞生之初就被置于聚光灯下，使命明确——挑战当时如 日中天的微信。然而，这场备受瞩目的"首战"并未成功，多闪在经历短暂的高光时刻后迅速沉寂，经历数次产品转型但终究未能掀起波澜，甚至一度传出 过停止研发的消息。 在市场风头全都被AI产品抢去的2025年，多闪却悄无声息重新杀回社交舞台的中央。多闪重新被"委以重任"，背后不仅是字节的社交实验终于找准了适合 自己的方向，也潜藏着及在AI时代重构社交版图的野心。 抖音全力"助攻"之下，多闪重回社交舞台中央 七麦数据显示，多闪在今年走出了一条漂亮的"逆袭"之路——在1月10号32.6.0版本发布之后，在App Store榜单上直线 ...

Group 1 - Douyin and Kuaishou are intensifying their efforts in the social domain by updating features like "Daily" and "Sayings" and testing a new social app called "Haihai" [1][2] - Douyin's previous attempts at social products, such as Duoshan, have not succeeded, leading to their discontinuation, while Kuaishou has also launched several social products with limited impact [2][3] - Recent updates include Douyin's enhancements to the "Daily" module, allowing users to post multimedia content with time-limited visibility and introducing a notification mechanism for friends' updates [3][5] Group 2 - Kuaishou has introduced features like "Nearby People" and "Sayings," which allow users to share multimedia content and interact with friends, resembling social media platforms like QQ Space [5][6] - Kuaishou's "Little Note" feature enables anonymous messaging, enhancing user interaction, while group chat functionalities are being promoted through events [6][7] - The push for social features is driven by the natural user demand for interaction within the platforms, as articulated by Kuaishou's CEO, who envisions a diverse and content-rich community [7][10] Group 3 - The decline in content scarcity on short video platforms necessitates new strategies to retain user engagement, as competition from platforms like WeChat's video accounts intensifies [10][11] - Social features can enhance commercial monetization opportunities by integrating e-commerce and live streaming, thereby increasing platform vitality [11][13] - The challenge lies in changing user perceptions, as most users view Douyin and Kuaishou primarily as entertainment tools rather than social platforms [14][17] Group 4 - The inherent weaknesses of social interactions on Douyin and Kuaishou stem from their focus on interest-based connections rather than strong social ties, making it difficult to maintain active groups [16][18] - The conflict between algorithm-driven content distribution and relationship-driven engagement poses a challenge for fostering genuine user interactions [16][19] - The long-term success of social features on these platforms will depend on their ability to develop unique social models distinct from traditional social networks [19][20]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the ultimate battleground in the internet industry is not content but the ownership of social relationship chains, as demonstrated by OpenAI's Sora2 and its viral growth through an invitation mechanism [2][4][12]. Group 1: Sora2's Nature and Social Ambitions - Sora2 is not merely an AI tool for video generation but a social relationship harvesting machine, leveraging its viral spread to build a social graph [6][8]. - The "invite one, share four" mechanism of Sora2 mirrors the early strategies of WeChat, highlighting the importance of social connections over mere functionality [4][13]. - The data collected on social relationships, such as who invites whom, is more valuable than the technology itself, indicating a shift towards social capital accumulation [9][12]. Group 2: Tencent's Competitive Advantage - Tencent's success is attributed to its robust social relationship chain, with WeChat's 900 million daily active users forming a deep-rooted social network [14][21]. - The migration of QQ relationships to WeChat was crucial for its rapid user growth, demonstrating the resistance users have to adopting new social platforms without their existing connections [15][16]. - Tencent's various successful features, such as WeChat red envelopes and mini-programs, are fundamentally empowered by its social relationship chain, contrasting with ByteDance's reliance on algorithm-driven content [17][21]. Group 3: ByteDance's Challenges - ByteDance's heavy dependence on short video content has created vulnerabilities, as it lacks the social connections that keep users engaged long-term [22][24]. - Despite numerous attempts to create social products, ByteDance has struggled to establish meaningful user interactions, leading to rapid declines in user engagement [25][27]. - The competition in the e-commerce space is fundamentally different from social platforms, where users are less likely to switch due to price alone, as seen with WeChat's enduring user base [28][29]. Group 4: The Impact of AI on Social Dynamics - The emergence of Sora2 intensifies ByteDance's anxieties, as it introduces a new social interaction model that combines AI with user collaboration [30][31]. - Tencent is proactively developing a social video generation platform that leverages its existing relationship chains, positioning itself advantageously in the AI social landscape [32][33]. - The article concludes that while content forms may evolve, the essence of social connections remains constant, and those who control the relationship chains will dominate the future [34][43].

Core Insights - ByteDance's new social product "Doubao Voice Social" aims to challenge WeChat's dominance by leveraging interest graphs and AI algorithms to create a unique social experience [2][4] - Doubao's decentralized social logic focuses on interest matching rather than traditional relationship-based connections, addressing the limitations of WeChat's strong relationship chains [4][6] - Despite Doubao's innovations, WeChat maintains a strong competitive edge with over 1.08 billion monthly active users and a comprehensive ecosystem that includes payment and service functionalities [4][5] Product Features - Doubao utilizes a dynamic interest graph built from user behavior data to recommend interest-based rooms and match users with similar preferences [4] - The platform incorporates an AI voice interaction engine that analyzes conversation context to generate relevant discussion topics, enhancing user engagement [4][6] - Internal testing shows Doubao users have an average voice call duration of 28 minutes, significantly higher than WeChat's 12 minutes [4] Competitive Landscape - WeChat's ecosystem is bolstered by its infrastructure, holding 54% of China's mobile payment market and over 400 million daily active users on mini-programs [4] - WeChat's strong relationship chains create high switching costs for users, making it difficult for new entrants like Doubao to gain traction [4] - WeChat is also advancing in AI social features, with plans to launch "WeChat Smart Brain" and open API access for third-party developers [5] Strategic Positioning - ByteDance adopts a "differentiated coexistence" strategy, targeting younger demographics with 67% of Doubao users aged 18-25, contrasting with WeChat's broader age coverage [6] - The company is executing a dual strategy of domestic and international growth, with Doubao linking to the Douyin ecosystem to create a "short video-social" traffic loop [6] - ByteDance's ultimate goal may not be to replace WeChat but to establish an "algorithm-driven social infrastructure," including a social advertising revenue-sharing model [6] Future Trends - The social landscape is poised for transformation with the advent of 5G and AI, leading to new forms of social interaction [7] - WeChat plans to introduce "holographic projection calls" by 2026, while ByteDance is reportedly testing a "brain-computer interface social" prototype [7] - The competition represents a clash between centralized ecosystems and decentralized algorithms, with innovation being key to enhancing post-connection quality in social interactions [7]