商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 棉花：乐观情绪推动期价震荡上涨 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | 名 称 CF2509 | | 单 位 元/吨 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 0.29% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 13845 | 夜盘涨幅 0.62% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CY2509 | | 元/吨 | 13,760 | 0.22% | 20170 | 0.32% | | | | | 20,105 | | | | | ICE美棉12 | | 美分/磅 | 69.32 | 0.81% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 CF2509 | | 手 | 250,977 | -833 | 875,506 | 11,714 | | CY2509 | | 手 | 7,428 | -1,999 | 21,860 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变 ...

几何时，"青岛制造"是国际订单簿上闪亮的名字，依托港口优势与勤劳智慧，无数青岛企业乘风破浪， 将产品送往全球。然而近来，国际贸易环境复杂多变，曾经的"安全感"正被"不确定性"所取代。转型不 再是锦上添花的远景规划，而是迫在眉睫的生存之战与涅槃之机。从贴牌到创牌，从单打独斗到抱团出 海，从受制于人到自主研发……青岛外贸企业走出了一条多元化的突围路径。近日，青岛早报记者走访 多家企业，解码岛城外贸企业转型背后的故事。 逆势增长：代工企业的品牌化突围 "我们也曾走过代工的老路。"青岛绿清新国际贸易有限公司创始人张斌回忆道。2014年，在一个破旧的 小民房里，1990年出生的张斌开始了自己的创业之旅。从给欧美客户做代工开始，经过10余年的发展， 如今，他已经将公司打造成一家集研发、生产、销售于一体的跨境企业，为国外的竞技运动、户外休闲 等用户提供一站式全方位产品与服务。 "我大学是学国际贸易专业的，在创业之初，我们做的是传统外贸业务，主要从事食品的进出口。"张斌 说，经历过几次失败之后，他将目光转向工艺品、珠宝等的海外销售。"我有个亲戚在城阳区开了一家 小工艺品工厂，他们负责生产，我们负责拿货销售。"张斌说，一次偶然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative role of cross-border e-commerce in reshaping global supply chains, enabling small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate in international trade more effectively [1][8]. Group 1: Cross-Border E-Commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce has become one of the most dynamic new forms of foreign trade, with over 120,000 entities currently operating in China, extending from major cities to second and third-tier cities [6]. - The total import and export volume of China's cross-border e-commerce is projected to reach approximately 2.71 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14% from 2020's 1.69 trillion yuan [8]. - The establishment of over 2,500 overseas warehouses has facilitated local shipping, allowing overseas consumers to enjoy faster delivery and easier return processes [4][8]. Group 2: Logistics and Efficiency - The use of overseas warehouses and new technologies like artificial intelligence has significantly improved the shopping experience for overseas consumers, with delivery times reduced to as little as two days in some cases [9][11]. - A logistics company reported an annual business growth of over 50%, with around 50,000 standard containers shipped from European warehouses last year [11]. - The logistics process has been streamlined, allowing for efficient handling of returns and sorting of products for resale, thus reducing costs for e-commerce businesses [13]. Group 3: Innovation in Product Selection and Marketing - A global product selection center has been established to assist new cross-border e-commerce sellers in choosing products that are more suitable for international markets, enhancing their competitiveness [17][19]. - Cross-border e-commerce live streaming has emerged as an effective tool for connecting Chinese products with overseas consumers, leveraging language and cultural advantages [21]. - The integration of artificial intelligence in marketing has reduced operational costs and enhanced the bargaining power of SMEs [23]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Industry Evolution - The current landscape of cross-border e-commerce is evolving, with manufacturers shifting from selling generic products to building their own brands [24]. - The article highlights the potential for cross-border e-commerce to become a new force in connecting global supply and demand, reshaping trade patterns [24].

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 06 月 28 日 逢低布局产品结构化升级&运营提效的细分赛道龙头 ❑ 个护：长期成长逻辑不改，国货龙头引领行业。 1）卫生巾：Q2 舆情扰动仍短期存在，优质国货份额提升长期逻辑不改。315 舆情影响仍在 Q2 短期存在，我们认为主要是小品牌借机营销造势引流短期扰 动格局、消费者大促囤货倾向减弱、对主流品牌囤货型消费量下降两个方面 产生影响，长期看影响将逐步削弱，行业份额仍有望向线上营销积极、产品 积极创新且具备线下渠道沉淀的品牌集中，重点关注百亚股份、豪悦护理； 2）需求稳定，功效护理驱动单价提升。口腔护理需求量刚性且相对稳，消费 者在基础清洁的基础提出功效护理的进阶需求，催生细分赛道发展机会，国 产龙头品牌凭借线下较为完善的经销渠道布局、长期积累的品牌口碑，积极 顺应牙膏品类线上化趋势，有望实现份额提升，重点关注登康口腔。 ❑ 品牌服饰：终端零售稳中有升，户外表现突出。从社零数据来看，鞋服针纺 织品 25 年 1-5 月同比增速为 3.3%（24 年 1-5 月为 2.0%），25H1 终端鞋服 零售在正常基数下稳中有增。从不同品类服饰的收入（或零售）增速表现 ...

靠寻亲流量成功踏入直播带货大门后的一年半，解清帅似乎迎来了流量的反噬。 2023年11月底，被拐卖了25年的解清帅与家人得以相认。婴儿时期就被拐卖、在留守家庭中长大、亲生父亲疑似为亿万富翁、在认亲会上表示"亲恩不能 忘，养恩也不能忘"……在这种"逆天改命"般的叙事背景下，解清帅的身世故事被众多媒体竞相报道，立刻成为了众人瞩目的焦点。 图源：网络 而在凭借寻亲故事走红后不到一个月，解清帅及其家人便立即杀入直播带货战场，"迫不及待"将这巨大的流量转化为实打实的收益。 根据蝉妈妈数据，2024年，解清帅共进行了97次带货直播，预估销售额为9700W-2.43亿。毫无疑问，在寻亲流量和身世故事的加持下，他不仅收获了大众 的关注，也收获了众多"家人们"真金白银的支持。 但利用大众善意快速做起来的生意往往潜藏着无穷的风险。 自其带货以来，一直有网友对其迅速将"公益寻亲"变为"生意"的做法颇有微词，质疑整场寻亲是策划剧本，削弱了大众善意。而今年5月以来，解清帅又 陆续陷入了高考为考生送"凉白开"的"作秀风波"、以母亲抑郁症为由头的卖惨引流风波、以及导致"中国寻亲网"关闭后的责任人风波。 这些风波一方面导致了解清帅的口碑不断 ...

县域流通企业是农村商贸流通的重要实体，也是畅通城乡循环的关键载体。重庆市自县域商业三年行动计划实施以来，以数字化、连锁化、标准化为方向， 引导商贸流通企业转型升级，推动流通企业下沉供应链，创新商业模式，提升数字化综合服务水平，建立与县域经济相适配的流通网络，推动县域商业高质 量发展。 统计数据显示，近年来，重庆县域商业活力不断增强，乡村消费快于城镇。2024年，重庆乡村消费品零售额增长6.8%，比城镇增速高3.7个百分点。 加"数"增"智" 传统商贸巧变供应链中枢 如何加快建立完善"县域统筹、以区县城为中心、乡镇为重点、村为基础"的商业网络体系？重庆市商务委积极引导各区县立足自身实际，推动数字技术与实 体经济深度融合，秉持以数字化创新驱动企业转型升级的"解题思路"，助力一批传统商贸企业实现华丽蜕变，显著提高了县域商业的辐射效能与服务水平。 石柱县的华美商贸有限公司原本是传统商贸企业，主营调味、粮油、酒水、饮料等商品。依托县域商业政策扶持，企业引进舟谱数据店管家，建成了"订单 采集＋仓储管理＋物流配送＋运营支撑＋大数据分析"等功能于一体的仓配管理系统，实现从传统经销向智能供应链服务的转型，数字应用从销售前端向采 ...

Group 1 - The "Job Waiting for You" recruitment event in Sihong County saw 61 companies offering 149 positions, with over 1,200 people recruited and 310 achieving employment intentions [1] - The "shared employment" model in the home textile industry in Nantong City helps stabilize jobs and enhance skills, allowing companies to absorb idle labor and maintain employee income [2] - The "Ningong Youliang" initiative in Nanjing focuses on skill enhancement through mobile classrooms, covering nearly 1,000 workers across 11 districts [3] Group 2 - A participant in a skills training program in Xuzhou reported a doubling of income after obtaining a senior housekeeper service certificate, highlighting the effectiveness of the "Union Helps Employment" initiative [4] - The "Job Waiting for You" series of recruitment events organized by the provincial labor union has attracted significant participation, with over 1,600 positions offered and more than 3,000 job seekers attending [5] - Specialized recruitment events for vocational school graduates are being organized, providing job guidance and legal assistance to help boost confidence in job hunting [6]

星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 近期，湖南华升股份有限公司（600156.SH，下称"华升股份"、"上市公司"）发布公告称，公司正在筹划通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买深圳 易信科技股份有限公司（下称"易信科技"、"标的公司"）100%股权，同时拟发行股份募集配套资金。 目前，本次交易仍处于筹划阶段，交易各方尚未签署正式的交易协议，具体交易方案仍在商讨论证中。公司股票目前仍处于停牌状态，停牌时间不 超过10个交易日，预计最晚于2025年6月24日（星期二）前复牌。 制图：佘诗婕 增收不增利 2024年年报显示，华升股份主要产品为苎麻纱、苎麻混纺纱，苎麻、亚麻、汉麻面料，服装服饰、家纺、产业用纺织品等，ODM/OEM与服装自主 品牌业务共同发展，已初步形成服装品牌矩阵。公司旗下拥有"雪松""洞庭""金爽"等纺织行业知名面料品牌。 受原材料价格波动和行业竞争挤压，2024年，上市公司出现增收不增利的情况。 根据年报，2024年，上市公司实现营业收入7.78亿元，同比增长34%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润-4933.60万元，同比下滑333%。 制图：李昕 这主要是由于公司产品毛利率出现大幅下降，由20 ...

Group 1 - Hunan Huasheng Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% equity of Shenzhen Yixin Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, while also raising supporting funds [1] - The transaction is still in the planning stage, and no formal agreement has been signed yet, with the company's stock currently suspended from trading [1] - The company expects to resume trading no later than June 24, 2025 [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Huasheng Co. reported a revenue of 778 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%, but a net loss of 49.34 million yuan, a decline of 333% compared to the previous year [3] - The company's gross profit margin significantly decreased from 10% in 2023 to 4.61% in 2024, indicating a substantial decline [5] - The decline in gross profit margin is attributed to two main factors: increased competition leading to lower product prices and the acceptance of lower-margin orders to maintain market share [6] Group 3 - Huasheng Co. operates in the textile industry, with major products including ramie yarn, blended yarn, and various textile products, and has established a brand matrix with well-known brands [3] - The company is transitioning towards a light asset operation model by 2025, aiming for industry chain collaboration [9] - The acquisition of Yixin Technology will allow Huasheng Co. to enter the IDC (Internet Data Center) sector, which is characterized by light assets and high gross margins, averaging around 30% [10]

进口约5552.5亿元，同比增长4.1%，占货物贸易进口总值的3%。 主要出口目的国为美国(36.2%)、英国(11.7%)、德国(5.7%)。主要进口来源地为美国(15.8%)、日本 (10.5%)、德国(9.8%)。 从海关总署获悉，2024年我国跨境电商进出口约2.71万亿元，同比增长14%；高于2024年我国货物贸易 增速9个百分点，占我国货物贸易进出口总值的6.2%。 其中： 出口约2.15万亿元，同比增长16.9%，占货物贸易出口总值的8.5%； 跨境电商出口消费品占97.5%，主要为服饰鞋包及珠宝配饰、手机电脑等各类数码产品及配件、家居家 纺及厨卫用具、家用办公电器及配件等。进口消费品占97.8%，主要为美容化妆、香水及日化洗护、食 品生鲜、医药保健品及医疗器具、奶粉等。 跨境电商出口货源地主要为广东、浙江、福建、江苏、山东等。进口目的地主要为广东、江苏、浙江、 上海、北京等。（央视新闻） ...