10 月瑞表出口中国金额同比增长 12.6%，连续 两月双位数正增 本报告导读： 10 月瑞表出口中国金额同比增长 12.6%，连续两月双位数正增。今年以来 200-500 瑞郎的瑞表出口金额下降较多，高端价位受到影响相对较少。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 [table_Authors] 2025-11-25 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：短期看 10 月出口数据承压，Q4 海外消费仍需观察。展望 2026，出 口制造板块的业绩修复逻辑相对更清晰，主要基于三方面因素：①出口美国关 税政策落地，产业发展方向具备一定的可见性；②与品牌共担关税压力显著减 轻；③产线分配优化及产能爬坡推进，效率持续改善。北美消费端仍受降息预 期支撑，近期奢侈品企业财报显示北美市场增速领先并较 Q2 进一步加快，但 需关注 Q4 高基数下的韧性表现及 Q3 品牌提价后的消费者反应。推荐华利集 团、九兴控股、申洲国际、超盈国际控股。品牌端看好三条主线：①家纺：大 单品策略有望激发换新需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs is gradually diminishing in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders. Nike's latest quarterly performance exceeded market expectations, signaling a recovery point, which is expected to improve supplier outlooks [1][5]. Brand Apparel Insights - In September, the retail sales of clothing increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth acceleration of 1.6 percentage points [1]. - E-commerce performance in October showed positive trends across all categories, with outdoor products leading growth. Year-on-year growth rates for various categories included: sports apparel at 0%, outdoor apparel at +19%, leisure apparel at 0%, home textiles at +1%, and personal care at +2% [2]. - Leading brands in sports apparel growth included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [2]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, October saw a year-on-year decline in textile exports from China (-9.1%) and Vietnam (-1.0%), with apparel and footwear exports from China down by 16.0% and 21.0% respectively. However, PMI indices for Indonesia, India, and Vietnam showed increases, indicating a stable manufacturing environment [3]. - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies are optimistic about future revenue, with orders visibility extending to six months for certain firms. Companies like Yu Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see order recovery in Q4, with companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group positioned to benefit from tariff stability and Nike's recovery [5][6]. - In the brand apparel sector, the long-term growth potential of the sports and outdoor segment is highlighted, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, as well as non-sport brands benefiting from a "brand upward" strategy [6].

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products showing growth rates of 0%, 19%, 0%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was negatively impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases in October, while wool prices decreased significantly, down 20.9% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [1][21] - Taiwanese companies in the textile sector are optimistic about future revenue, with several companies expecting a recovery in orders and revenue in the fourth quarter [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth quarter is expected to see a recovery in orders, with diminishing tariff impacts and stabilizing order placements [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Kai Run Co., which are expected to benefit from improved order visibility and market demand [3][6][7] - In branded apparel, the report recommends focusing on high-end segments and brands in the sports and outdoor categories, highlighting Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Tebu International as key players [3][6]

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products growing by 0%, 19%, 0%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth. In leisure wear, brands like Dazzle (93%), Li Ning (85%), and Snow Flying (49%) experienced rapid growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases and decreases in October, with domestic cotton prices up by 0.7% and imported cotton prices down by 0.9%. Wool prices decreased significantly, down 20.9% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [1][21] - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies showed varied revenue performance in October, with optimistic future outlooks. Companies like Ju Hong and Wei Hong reported strong order visibility and expected revenue recovery in the upcoming quarters [1][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth quarter is expected to see order recovery, with diminishing tariff impacts and stabilizing order placements [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, and Huayi Group, which is seeing continuous improvement in profitability [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Youcai Resources (002998), is focusing on internationalization as a key development direction, significantly increasing its overseas sales efforts and projecting substantial growth in foreign trade sales revenue for the coming years [1] Group 1: International Expansion - The company has announced that its foreign trade sales revenue for 2024 is expected to double compared to 2023 [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a nearly 60% increase in sales revenue compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Customer Base and Industry Focus - Major overseas customers include those in the automotive interior sector, covering brands such as Volkswagen, as well as industries like home textiles, acoustic materials, and sanitary materials [1] - The company is committed to maintaining an environmentally friendly and green approach in its overseas sales efforts [1]

Core Points - The company plans to invest 712.6151 million yuan in the "Wanshili Artificial Intelligence Factory Project" [1] - The project aims to achieve a production capacity of approximately 10 million meters of digital printing, focusing on products such as silk scarves, self-owned brand clothing, home textiles, silk fabrics, and digital printing processing services [1] - Detailed information regarding the project will be disclosed in the company's fundraising prospectus on October 31, 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) will continue to set up a procurement corridor to enhance supply-demand matching and improve cooperation effectiveness [1][4] - The procurement corridor in Hall 8.2 will focus on agricultural products, consumer goods, and health products, featuring a selection meeting for approximately 20 high-quality buyers [1][2] - The first batch of announced enterprises includes major retail and internet companies in China, indicating strong demand and a well-established supply chain [2][4] Group 2 - The procurement needs of the announced enterprises cover all areas of the agricultural products exhibition, allowing for a clear presentation of purchasing preferences and directions [3] - A dedicated negotiation area will be set up for buyers to engage in multiple rounds of face-to-face discussions with exhibitors, facilitating deeper cooperation discussions [4] - The first batch of participating companies includes JD.com, Dashang Group, Greenland Zhongxuan, and others, showcasing a diverse range of procurement interests [4][22]

Group 1: Export Chain - The export chain is expected to see improved sentiment and performance, with clarity on tariff arrangements boosting order placement by brands [1][9] - Major brands like Nike and Adidas are cautiously optimistic about demand recovery, with Nike reporting a slight revenue and gross margin beat in its recent quarterly results [2][12] - Leading manufacturers have begun to see performance improvements in Q3, with companies like Xin'ao and Bailong Dongfang anticipating revenue growth driven by increased orders [3][19] Group 2: Investment Themes - Key investment themes include leading sports and leisure brands such as Nike, Adidas, and Uniqlo, along with their core suppliers like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which have attractive PE ratios for 2025 [4][21] - Upstream manufacturers showing short-term order improvements and medium-term market share gains include Xin'ao and Weixing, which are expected to benefit from rising raw material prices [4][21] Group 3: Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector continues to show signs of divergence, with retail performance impacted by fluctuating offline traffic and intense online competition [5][22] - Despite challenges, companies like Hailan Home and Luolai Life are expected to maintain positive revenue growth due to strong online and offline sales strategies [6][26] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall market outlook for the textile and apparel industry remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery in demand and performance improvements across various segments [1][9][22] - The consumer confidence index shows slight recovery, but consumers remain focused on product functionality and value for money [5][22]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the broader market since September, with textile manufacturing outperforming branded apparel, showing +0.1% and -1.6% respectively as of October 9 [1][13] - Key companies that have seen significant gains since September include Xin'ao Co. (+16.9%), Fengtai Enterprise (+14.9%), Adidas (+11.6%), and others [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in August grew by 3.1% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - The sales pressure is expected in September due to the absence of the Mid-Autumn Festival and high temperatures affecting consumer behavior [2] - E-commerce channels showed strong growth in outdoor apparel, with sportswear brands like Descente (+51%) and Lululemon (+35%) leading the way [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports in September increased by 9.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports rose by 9.0% [3] - China's textile exports showed a slight improvement in August, with a 1.4% increase, although apparel and footwear exports declined significantly [3] - Wool prices saw a notable increase in September, rising by 17.5% month-on-month and 28.3% year-on-year [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the rebound opportunities in textile manufacturing, with expectations for order recovery in Q4 [5] - Companies like Shenzhou International, which is Nike's largest apparel supplier, and Huayi Group are highlighted as key beneficiaries of tariff changes and Nike's recovery [5] - The report suggests that the impact of tariffs will diminish in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders [5] Key Company Forecasts - Shenzhou International is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 4.37 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 13.9 [8] - Other companies such as Huayi Group and Kai Run Co. are also rated "Outperform" with positive growth forecasts [8]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the broader market since September, with textile manufacturing showing better performance than branded apparel, with respective changes of +0.1% and -1.6% as of October 9 [1][13] - Key companies that have seen significant gains since September include Xin'ao Co. (+16.9%), Fengtai Enterprise (+14.9%), Adidas (+11.6%), and others [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing increased by 3.1% year-on-year in August, with a 1.3 percentage point improvement from the previous month. However, sales in September are expected to face pressure due to the absence of the Mid-Autumn Festival and continued warm weather [2] - E-commerce channels showed strong growth in outdoor apparel, with categories like sportswear and outdoor clothing growing by 22% and 51% respectively for leading brands [2] - On social media platform Xiaohongshu, the top three brands in the sports and outdoor category saw significant follower growth, indicating strong consumer interest [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports saw a year-on-year increase of 9.4% in September, while footwear exports rose by 9.0%, indicating a recovery in the sector [3] - The price of wool significantly increased in September, with a month-on-month rise of 17.5% and a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [3] - Companies like Ruohong have visibility on orders extending to Q1 2026, maintaining a revenue target of over 3 billion yuan per month [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound opportunities, particularly after the release of Q3 reports. The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to diminish, with orders stabilizing [5] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Kai Run Co., which are positioned to benefit from tariff changes and recovery in demand [5][7] - In the branded apparel segment, long-term growth is anticipated in the sports category, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Li Ning [7]