智通财经APP获悉，在家得宝(HD.US)发布了第二季度业绩后，摩根士丹利发布研报，维持对家得宝 的"增持"评级，目标价415美元。大摩表示，2025 年第二季度业绩维持了家得宝的看涨情景，26/27年的 预测保持不变。 大摩指出，2025 年第二季度的业绩使家得宝股价上涨的乐观预期得以维持：房地产市场已触底，家装 股(家得宝和劳氏(LOW.US))的股价反映出市场预期其将经历一个漫长而渐进的复苏过程。因此，营收 加速增长的迹象应会推动盈利和市盈率上升。家得宝的业绩使这一预期保持不变。同店销售额相对符合 预期，而公司业务管理良好，这为经济周期好转时的运营杠杆上升潜力奠定了基础。 大摩表示，2025年第二季度透露出的最重要信息是：美国同店销售额连续第三个季度实现增长，此前已 连续 8 个季度下滑。该行认为这反映了房地产市场触底、新冠疫情的影响逐渐消退以及家得宝在专业和 DIY 领域所做的内部努力。尽管此次反弹幅度并不惊人，但市场对此已有预期并已反映在股价中。 （原标题：大摩：家得宝(HD.US)二季报支撑股价上涨预期 重申"增持"评级） 重要的是，大摩认为排除飓风影响的同店销售额增长为正(尽管整体数据为略降 0 ...

【家得宝周二开盘前将公布二季度财报，投资者关注多项指标】家得宝将于周二开盘前公布第二季度财 报，投资者关注美国同店销售额能否持续增长，以及美国房地产市场低迷态势是否缓解。 华尔街预计 家得宝上季度同店销售额增长1.4%，一季度下降0.3%，此前全球同店销售额曾连降八季。美国市场同 店销售额预计增长1.6%，将实现本土市场连续三季度正增长。 增长提速或因同比基数降低和大型非必 需项目需求回升。预计家装需求将改善，消费者会习惯高利率而不再推迟项目。 营收预计同比增长5% 至424亿美元，调整后每股收益预计为4.72美元，高于去年同期。 一季度家得宝重申年度预测，预计财 年净销售额增长2.8%，同店销售额增长1%。二季度虽未提供指引，但执行副总裁称是旺季，库存充足 且未因关税囤货。 家得宝计划与供应商合作、采购多元化，不提高价格，目标是12个月后美国以外单 一国家采购占比不超10%。 因市场预期美联储9月降息，利率缓和，家得宝股价财报公布前走高，过去 一月涨约10%，对手劳氏涨约15%。 美银分析师称，虽宏观环境波动，但家得宝将通过有机增长和并购 提升专业客户业务，继续获市场份额。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - Recent policy optimizations in various cities are expected to stimulate local housing market demand, with more cities likely to introduce new stimulus measures [4][27]. - The real estate sector has seen a slight decrease in sales momentum over the past two months, but there is optimism for a rebound in sales and improvement in the fundamentals of real estate companies [4][27]. - In the building materials sector, particularly cement, there is a strong inclination for price increases due to reduced inventory pressure and improved demand from infrastructure projects [5][48]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of August 14, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 3.99% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.07 percentage points [14]. - The report highlights that the sales volume in key cities has increased by 10.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in market activity [24]. - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979), which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [27]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has risen by 1.77% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 13.38% [28]. - Cement prices are expected to stabilize and potentially increase due to production cuts and rising demand from housing and infrastructure projects [5][48]. - Recommended companies in the cement sector include Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801), which are seen as having strong fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [48]. Key Data Points - The average price of cement in the national market is currently 316 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight decline due to weak demand [35]. - The report notes that the average price of flat glass has been under pressure, with production rates remaining low across various regions [40]. - The introduction of a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans is expected to boost demand for home improvement and building materials [49].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively promoting consumption through a series of financial measures, including the issuance of special bonds to support the "old for new" consumption policy, aiming to boost retail sales and overall economic activity [1]. Group 1: Financial Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that the third batch of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for supporting the "old for new" consumption initiative has been fully allocated, with a fourth batch of the same amount planned for October, completing the annual target of 3000 billion yuan [1]. - The NDRC will collaborate with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce to ensure local governments fulfill their funding responsibilities and detail the usage plans for these funds [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - In the first half of the year, the "old for new" consumption initiative has shown positive results, with sales of automobiles, home appliances, home decoration, and mobile phones reaching 1.6 trillion yuan [1]. - Retail sales of major household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture have seen year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous year's total [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuation of the national subsidy program for consumer goods replacement, highlighting the allocation of funds and the positive impact on consumer spending and business performance. Group 1: National Subsidy Program - The Ministry of Finance has arranged 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumer goods replacement program, with 162 billion yuan already allocated in two batches earlier this year [1][2] - A third batch of 69 billion yuan will be distributed in October to support local implementation of the consumer goods replacement initiative [3] Group 2: Impact on Consumer Spending - In the first half of the year, the consumer goods replacement program generated sales of 1.6 trillion yuan across various sectors, including automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [2] - Retail sales of major appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture saw year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [2] Group 3: Future Plans and Regulatory Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of policies to boost consumer spending and enhance the consumption environment, particularly in major cities with significant population bases and development potential [2][4] - Measures will be taken to strengthen fund supervision and ensure the safety of subsidy funds, including regular monitoring and increased checks to prevent misuse [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively promoting the "old-for-new" consumption policy, with significant funding allocated to stimulate consumer spending and support various industries, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Funding and Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, has allocated a total of 3,000 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy [1]. - A third batch of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been distributed, with additional funds expected to be released in October [1][3]. - The government emphasizes a structured approach to fund allocation, ensuring that the "old-for-new" policy is implemented consistently throughout the year [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumer Spending - The "old-for-new" initiative has resulted in a sales increase of 1.6 trillion yuan across various consumer goods, including automobiles, home appliances, and mobile phones [2]. - Retail sales in specific categories, such as home appliances and audio-visual equipment, have seen year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively, contributing to a 5% increase in total social retail sales [2]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to introduce additional policies to further stimulate consumer spending and enhance the consumption environment [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The government is implementing measures to enhance the effectiveness of the funding policy and strengthen oversight to ensure the proper use of funds [4]. - A regular monitoring mechanism has been established to track the implementation of the policy and ensure accountability in fund management [4]. - Increased scrutiny is being applied to prevent misuse of funds, including fraud and misallocation [4].

Group 1: Summer Consumption Promotion Activities - Fujian Province's Commerce Department has launched a vibrant summer consumption season with over 1000 promotional activities focusing on eight key areas including trade-in programs, inbound consumption, foreign trade products, and new energy vehicle consumption [1][4][21] - The government and enterprises will collaborate to create diverse summer consumption scenarios to stimulate consumer spending [1] Group 2: Tax Refund and E-commerce Initiatives - The implementation of the "immediate purchase and refund" policy for outbound tax refunds is underway, with 114 tax refund stores established, including 40 that offer immediate refunds [7] - E-commerce platforms like Taobao and JD.com will host over 30 trade connection events, involving more than 430 foreign trade companies and over 50,000 products [10] Group 3: Culinary and Service Consumption Events - Various culinary events such as "One County One Table Dish" and "Eight Fujian Food Carnival" will be organized, along with the distribution of 40 million yuan in dining consumption vouchers [12] - A series of service consumption activities will focus on sectors like dining, accommodation, and tourism, promoting integrated development of commerce, tourism, and culture [14] Group 4: Consumer Guides and Night Economy - Regular consumer guides will be released, and local areas are encouraged to create "night consumption maps" to enhance the night economy [16] - Summer activities will include events like summer fun, cooling retreats, and beer festivals to attract consumers [16]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have confirmed that the nationwide deadline for the old-for-new consumption policy for consumer goods is December 31, 2025, with a significant amount of funds available for subsidies [1] Group 1: Policy Details - The subsidy program will restart in July, with regions like Chongqing, Jiangsu, and Hubei resuming the subsidy channels for home appliances and automobiles, with a total of 138 billion yuan in remaining funds [1][4] - The program aims to address issues such as "one machine multiple sales" and "false recycling" by upgrading systems and implementing stricter controls [4] - The subsidy amounts include 20% for first-level energy efficiency products, with a maximum of 2,000 yuan per item, and 15% for second-level energy efficiency products, with a maximum of 1,500 yuan [5][12] Group 2: Subsidy Categories - Home appliances will include a wide range of products such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, with a total of 12 categories eligible for subsidies [5][12] - Digital products like smartphones and tablets will receive a 15% subsidy, capped at 500 yuan, with additional incentives for flagship models [5][12] - For automobiles, the subsidy for scrapping old vehicles can reach up to 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel-efficient cars [5][12] Group 3: Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to act quickly as high-value items like air conditioners and electric vehicles will have limited availability, and the competition for subsidies is expected to intensify [8][9] - It is crucial for consumers to ensure that invoices are valid and correctly filled out to avoid losing subsidy eligibility [6][9] - The program emphasizes the importance of utilizing online platforms like JD.com to secure subsidies and maximize benefits through combined discounts [9][12]

Group 1 - The consumption market in Shaanxi province remained stable during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total sales revenue of 6.87 billion yuan from 570 sample enterprises, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.28% [1] - Retail enterprises reported a commodity retail revenue of 6.49 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.99%, with 15 out of 20 major categories experiencing positive growth [1] - Significant growth was observed in various categories, including automobiles (63.4%), cultural and entertainment products (28.03%), tobacco and alcohol (22.09%), communications (19.47%), clothing (18.36%), and home appliances (18.28%) [1] Group 2 - The restaurant sector generated revenue of 37.1 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.07%, and both takeout and dine-in services saw growth of 6.42% and 21.7% respectively [1] - Five cities, including Xianyang, Shangluo, Hanzhong, Ankang, and Weinan, reported double-digit growth in restaurant revenue [1] - The market for essential goods showed sufficient supply and stable prices, with retail prices for eight categories of essential goods experiencing three increases, three stable prices, and two decreases [1] Group 3 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy proved effective during the holiday, with a total of 1.36 billion yuan in subsidy applications leading to a consumption boost of 9.16 billion yuan [2] - Specific contributions included 776 scrapped vehicles generating 5.85 million yuan, 1,072 replaced vehicles contributing 21.53 million yuan, and 80,000 home appliances exchanged leading to 27.31 million yuan in consumption [2] - Other categories such as 3C digital products, home renovation, and electric bicycles also saw significant consumption boosts, with 91,200 new digital products leading to 26.96 million yuan and 4.18 million home renovation items contributing 9.37 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy in Jin City, which has led to increased consumer traffic and sales in home appliance stores, particularly during weekends [1][2] - Jin City plans to expand the subsidy policy in 2025 to include more categories such as mobile phones, tablets, and smart wearable devices, indicating a broader approach to consumer electronics [1] - The second "Home Decoration 'Renewal' Shopping Festival" in Jin City was the largest ever, showcasing the growing trend of consumer engagement in home improvement and appliance upgrades [1][2] Group 2 - The 2024 home decoration "Renewal" shopping festival saw a significant expansion in the subsidy range from 9 to 40 categories, with a notable increase in subsidy amounts, allowing for a maximum cumulative subsidy of up to 18,000 yuan [2] - The total sales during the shopping festival exceeded 200 million yuan, doubling the sales from the first event, which also positively influenced the sales of home appliances under the "old-for-new" scheme [2] - As of May 25, 2025, Jin City has allocated 333 million yuan in subsidies, driving a total consumption of 2.2 billion yuan across various categories, including automobiles, 3C digital products, home appliances, and electric bicycles [2][3]