Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with adjusted net profit reaching 11.3 billion yuan, up 81%, marking a historical high [1] - The company successfully transitioned between old and new growth engines, with innovative businesses like smart electric vehicles and AI achieving profitability for the first time in a single quarter, while the traditional smartphone business faced pressure due to rising memory costs [1][4] - Xiaomi's President Lu Weibing emphasized the importance of resilience through continuous capability building in response to uncontrollable environmental factors [1] Revenue and Profitability - The innovative business segment, including smart electric vehicles, delivered a significant turnaround, achieving a profit of 700 million yuan in Q3 after a loss of 300 million yuan in Q2, with an average profit of 6,434 yuan per vehicle sold [4] - The smartphone business faced challenges, with global shipments of 43.3 million units and revenue of 45.969 billion yuan, leading to a decline in gross margin to 11.1% due to prolonged cost pressures from core components [6] Business Segmentation - Internet services generated revenue of 9.4 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 10.8% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by strong performance in advertising [7] - The IoT business reported revenue of 27.6 billion yuan, maintaining a growth streak for seven consecutive quarters, with a gross margin of 23.9% [9] Strategic Initiatives - Xiaomi is increasing its R&D investment, with Q3 spending reaching 9.1 billion yuan, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, and total R&D expenditure expected to exceed 30 billion yuan for the year [11] - The company is focusing on high-end product strategies to counteract cost pressures, achieving a market share increase in the 4,000-6,000 yuan price segment by 5.6 percentage points to 18.9% [6] Future Outlook - Despite achieving profitability in the automotive sector, challenges remain, including reduced purchase tax subsidies and intensified competition expected in 2026 [12] - Xiaomi aims to solidify its automotive profitability, further penetrate the high-end smartphone market, and leverage opportunities in AI and physical world integration for long-term strategic goals [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Xiaomi's growth is under pressure due to the tightening of subsidies and increased competition in its traditional business, particularly in smartphones and IoT, while the automotive business shows potential but faces challenges ahead [11][12][24]. Overall Performance - Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of 113.1 billion RMB for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, primarily driven by the automotive business [6][27]. - Traditional business (smartphones and AIoT) revenue grew only 1.6% year-on-year, indicating weak performance in hardware sales [27][30]. - Gross margin improved to 22.9%, supported by the automotive business, while smartphone margins declined due to intensified competition [30][31]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated 29 billion RMB in revenue, with a shipment of 109,000 units and an average selling price of 260,000 RMB [6][35]. - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 25.5%, although it slightly decreased from the previous quarter due to a reduction in the share of high-margin models [38][39]. - The core operating profit for the automotive business was 680 million RMB, marking its first profitable quarter [7][67]. Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue was 46 billion RMB, down 3.1% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of subsidy reductions and increased competition [42][44]. - Smartphone shipments increased by 0.5% year-on-year, but the average selling price fell by 3.6% due to a higher proportion of low-cost models sold [44][46]. - The smartphone gross margin dropped to approximately 11.1%, influenced by rising component costs and market competition [48][23]. IoT Business - The IoT segment reported revenue of 27.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, significantly lower than previous quarters due to subsidy reductions affecting large appliances [51][18]. - The gross margin for IoT products was 22.9%, benefiting from a higher proportion of sales in more profitable categories [52][53]. Internet Services - Internet services revenue reached 9.4 billion RMB, growing 10.8% year-on-year, primarily driven by advertising services [56][60]. - Advertising revenue was 7.2 billion RMB, up 16.1%, while value-added services saw a slight decline [56][66]. Overseas Market - Overseas revenue was 40.1 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.2%, with internet services growing by 19.1% to 3.3 billion RMB [60][62]. - Hardware sales in overseas markets continued to show weakness, reflecting a challenging demand environment [60]. Profitability - The core operating profit for the quarter was 6.7 billion RMB, with a core operating profit margin of 5.9%, impacted by declining smartphone margins and increased expenses [67][66]. - Traditional business core operating profit was approximately 6.03 billion RMB, while the automotive segment contributed 680 million RMB [67][66].

Core Viewpoint - Hedge funds have turned bearish on Xiaomi stock, with significant short positions expected to persist until the earnings report season due to a lack of catalysts and safety concerns [1][5] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Xiaomi's stock has declined nearly 30% since reaching a historical high in June [1][3] - Short positions from institutional clients have increased by 53% in the past week, primarily driven by pension funds and hedge funds [2][5] - The consensus among hedge funds is that Xiaomi is a common short/sell target in the short term [5] Group 2: Financial Projections and Analyst Opinions - CITIC Securities projects that Xiaomi will achieve total revenue of 113.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, and a Non-IFRS net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, up 63% [1] - Despite the bearish sentiment, CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on Xiaomi's long-term potential as a leading hard-tech ecosystem company [1][5] - Ping An International also reaffirms a "buy" rating for Xiaomi, anticipating that the automotive business may achieve its first quarterly profit [5] Group 3: Market Position and Product Performance - According to Canalys, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 43.4 million units in Q3 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a 14% global market share [7] - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments declined by approximately 2%, with a market share of 15%, ranking fourth [7] - Xiaomi's high-end smartphone series, the Xiaomi 17, achieved record sales shortly after launch, indicating a positive trend in product structure optimization [7] Group 4: Automotive and IoT Business Developments - Xiaomi has delivered 400,000 cars since the launch of its automotive division, with monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units in September and October 2025 [8] - The company has introduced a tax subsidy scheme to enhance consumer benefits, aiming for a break-even point in its automotive business [8] - Despite challenges in the IoT sector due to reduced government subsidies, Xiaomi's competitive edge in product quality and supply chain management is expected to remain strong [8]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's Q2 2025 financial report shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by its automotive business, IoT, and internet services, despite challenges in its smartphone segment [4][6]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported Q2 revenue of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% [4]. - The automotive business generated 20.6 billion yuan in revenue from the delivery of 81,300 vehicles, with a gross margin of 26.4% [6][9]. - The operating loss in the automotive sector decreased from 500 million yuan in Q1 to 300 million yuan in Q2, marking a 40% improvement [9][12]. Business Segments Smartphone Business - Smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion yuan, accounting for 39.3% of total revenue, but showed a decline of 2.1% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones fell to 1,073 yuan, down 11.3% from the previous quarter [15]. - Despite challenges, Xiaomi maintained a 14.7% market share globally, ranking third, and regained the top position in Southeast Asia with an 18.9% market share [16]. IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue reached 38.7 billion yuan, a 44.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5% [17]. - Internet services generated 9.1 billion yuan, growing 10.1% year-on-year, with a high gross margin of 75.4% [20]. - The IoT segment is becoming a significant profit source, surpassing the smartphone business in gross margin contribution [20]. Cost Management - Xiaomi's overall expense ratio decreased to 13.9%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control despite entering the automotive sector [22]. - R&D expenses were 7.8 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in the R&D expense ratio due to revenue growth outpacing absolute spending [24]. - The company leveraged shared R&D resources across its product lines, enhancing efficiency [24]. Automotive Business Outlook - Xiaomi's automotive business is close to profitability, with a theoretical net loss of approximately 6,000 yuan per vehicle, indicating that minor adjustments could lead to profitability [11][12]. - The company aims to deliver 350,000 vehicles by the end of the year, with production capacity increasing [12]. - The automotive sector's rapid growth and decreasing losses suggest a potential for achieving quarterly profitability by late 2025 or early 2026 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in Q2 2025, driven by its automotive and IoT businesses, despite challenges in the smartphone segment due to rising storage prices [1][3]. Automotive Business - The company anticipates approximately 81,000 vehicle shipments in Q2 2025, generating revenue of 20.4 billion RMB, a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for the automotive segment is expected to improve by 0.5 percentage points to 23.7% as production ramps up [2]. - The company projects total vehicle sales of 436,000 units for the full year 2025, benefiting from economies of scale [2]. - The recent government initiatives to promote high-quality development in the electric vehicle sector are expected to enhance long-term profitability for industry participants [2]. Smartphone, IoT, and Internet Business - The company's smartphone shipments in China are projected to reach approximately 10.4 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and an increase in market share from 14.1% to 15.1% [3]. - Smartphone revenue is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with gross margin potentially declining by 0.9 percentage points to 11.5% due to rising storage costs [3]. - The IoT business is forecasted to grow by 37% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with gross margin expected to remain above 22% [3]. - Internet business revenue is anticipated to grow by 15% year-on-year, maintaining a strong gross margin of around 75% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 0.9%, 1.6%, and 1.2% respectively, and net profit forecasts down by 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.5% to 40.45 billion, 50.47 billion, and 62.29 billion RMB [3]. - The target price for the company is set at 67.8 HKD, down from 71.2 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, corresponding to a 40 times PE ratio for 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's moat is built on its core model, focusing on high-end strategies and new retail formats. The company aims to strengthen its foundation in "chips, AI, and OS" while continuing to delve into core technology sectors. The integration of software and hardware will empower the entire ecosystem of people, vehicles, and homes [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On June 3, Xiaomi held its 2025 Investor Day, where the founder Lei Jun and President Lu Weibing discussed the company's high-end strategy and new retail formats. Xiaomi's moat is attributed to its core model, with a focus on "chips, AI, and OS" as the three foundational pillars of hard technology [2][4]. Smartphone and Consumer Electronics - Xiaomi is entering a balanced development year, with a projected net user inflow of over 13 million in China for 2024. From 2020 to 2024, the market share is expected to increase by 5.3 percentage points. In Q1 2025, global smartphone sales reached 41.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with a global market share of 14.1% [8]. - In mainland China, sales reached 13.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.0%, reclaiming the top position after 10 years. The average selling price of Xiaomi smartphones in Q1 2025 was 1,210.5 yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year, with a market share of 24.4% in the 4k-5k price range [8]. IoT Business - In Q1 2025, the IoT and lifestyle consumer products segment generated revenue of 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.7%, with a gross margin of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points. The revenue from major appliances doubled, indicating the initial success of the high-end strategy [8]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment's losses narrowed significantly, with a loss of 500 million yuan in Q1 2025, a reduction of 50.2% quarter-on-quarter. The new YU7 model is expected to launch in July, continuing the product positioning logic of the SU7 series. The automotive business is anticipated to achieve profitability in Q3 to Q4 of this year [8]. Overall Outlook - Xiaomi's comprehensive ecosystem is advancing, with steady growth in smartphones, rapid growth in IoT appliances, and the automotive business. The projected net profits for Xiaomi Group from 2025 to 2027 are 42.39 billion, 55.75 billion, and 70.08 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 111.3 billion yuan (yoy +47.4%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (yoy +64.5%) [5][6] - The IoT business continues to show strong growth, driven by major appliances, with revenue of 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%) [6] - The automotive business is expected to gain momentum with the upcoming launch of the YU7 model, which is anticipated to enhance sales and profitability [6][7] - The smartphone segment shows improvement in gross margin and average selling price (ASP), with ASP reaching 1,211 yuan (yoy +5.8%) [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2.1% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 10.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 17.7% [5] - Revenue breakdown: - Mobile business: 50.6 billion yuan (yoy +8.9%) [5] - IoT business: 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%) [5] - Internet services: 9.1 billion yuan (yoy +12.8%) [5] - Smart automotive and other innovative businesses: 18.6 billion yuan [5] IoT Business - The IoT segment's revenue growth is primarily driven by major appliances, with a significant increase in sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [6] - The gross margin for IoT reached 25.2%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - A new smart appliance factory is expected to start production in November 2025, aiming for an annual output of 3 million air conditioners by 2026 [6] Automotive Business - Automotive revenue for Q1 2025 was 18.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.2% [6] - The YU7 model is set to launch in July 2025, featuring advanced technology and expected to drive sales growth [6][7] Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment's gross margin improved to 12.4% in Q1 2025 [7] - The ASP for smartphones reached a record high of 1,211 yuan, with a market share increase in the high-end segment [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 482.7 billion yuan, 612.7 billion yuan, and 713.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.9%, 26.9%, and 16.5% [8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 41.2 billion yuan, 56.9 billion yuan, and 69.9 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 51.3%, 38.1%, and 22.9% [8]

Overall Performance - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 111.3 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.3%, driven primarily by the IoT segment and automotive business [1][11] - The gross margin for the quarter was 22.8%, exceeding market expectations of 21.4%, largely due to improvements in the IoT and automotive sectors [14][16] Smartphone Business - Revenue from the smartphone segment was 50.6 billion RMB, below market expectations of 51.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of only 8.9% [2][25] - Smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units, reflecting a modest growth of 3% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 40% while overseas sales declined significantly [27][31] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones was 1,211 RMB, up 10.5% year-on-year, supported by a higher proportion of domestic sales [31][35] IoT Business - The IoT segment generated revenue of 32.3 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.7%, significantly benefiting from government subsidies [37][39] - The gross margin for IoT products was 25.2%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong sales in large appliances and wearables [39][41] Automotive Business - The automotive segment reported combined revenue of 18.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.2%, surpassing market expectations of 20.8% [2][18] - The company sold 76,000 vehicles in the quarter, with an average selling price of 239,000 RMB, indicating a 2% increase from the previous quarter [19][22] - The automotive business is expected to exceed the initial annual target of 350,000 units, with potential adjustments to aim for 400,000 units due to strong demand [6][18] Internet Services - Revenue from internet services was 9.1 billion RMB, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, primarily driven by advertising services [41][43] - Advertising revenue reached 6.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20%, while value-added services remained stagnant [41][43] Cost Management - Total operating expenses for the quarter were 15.4 billion RMB, with a decrease in the expense ratio by 1.4 percentage points due to improved revenue performance [47][50] - Marketing expenses decreased by 5 billion RMB compared to the previous quarter, indicating a more efficient allocation of resources [47][50] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from government subsidies in the IoT sector and strong demand in the automotive market, with a focus on maintaining growth in these areas [5][6] - The upcoming launch of new models, such as the YU7, is anticipated to further enhance market confidence and sales performance [6][24]

Financial Performance - Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.4% [1] - The net profit for the quarter was 10.9 billion yuan, compared to 4.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit was 10.7 billion yuan, up from 6.5 billion yuan year-on-year [1] IoT Business Growth - The IoT business segment experienced rapid growth, significantly outpacing the industry average [1] - Competitors have begun to launch competing products in response to Xiaomi's success in the IoT sector [1][2] - Xiaomi's strategy to address increased competition in the AIoT industry was discussed, with a focus on maintaining growth despite market challenges [1] Automotive Strategy - Concerns were raised about the potential impact of the Xiaomi YU7 on the sales of the Xiaomi SU7, with discussions on pricing strategies [1] - The company does not anticipate a negative impact on SU7 sales, citing strong demand and production capacity constraints [4] - Both YU7 and SU7 share the same platform, which allows for efficient resource utilization [4] Market Position and Competition - Xiaomi aims to be a value creator and a driver of industry progress, viewing increased competition as a positive development for the sector [2] - The company acknowledges the slow pace of innovation in the home appliance industry and seeks to improve user experience and product automation [2] - Xiaomi's approach to overseas markets is similar to its domestic strategy, although the competitive landscape may differ [3]

小米集团 [Table_StockNameRptType] -W（01810） 公司点评 24Q4 点评：业绩超预期，25 年汽车交付量上调至 35 万辆 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-03-21 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | | 56.50 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元） | 14.5/58.2 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 25,112 | | | 流通股本（百万股） | 25,112 | | | 流通股比例（%） | | 100 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 14,188 | | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 14,188 | | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 -37% -16% 6% 27% 48% 4/23 7/23 10/23 1/24 小米集团-W 恒生指数 -50% 0% 50% 100% 小米集团-W 恒生指数 -10% 90% 190% 290% 24/03 24/06 ...