临近年底，车企11月销量陆续公布。基于前11个月的累计销量表现，大体上已能预判各家车企能否完成 设定的2025年度销量目标。 盖世汽车整理了超16家主流车企2025年前11月销量及目标完成情况（结合多方消息整理，仅供参考）。 由此发现，车企年度销量目标之和已超过整体车市的预测总量。中汽协预测，2025年车市整体销量或为 3400万辆。这意味着，在市场竞争加速、价格体系持续波动的大环境下，必然会有车企无法达成年初设 定的目标。 那16家车企中，谁已提前撞线、谁仍在稳健冲刺，而谁又可能面临目标失守。 | | | | 2025年车企整体销量目标完成情况 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (车企公开散驱、激世汽车产业方 | | | | | 走 | 11月 (万辆) | 同比 | 1-11月 (万辆) | 同比 | 销量目标 (万辆) | 完成度 | | 小鹏汽车 | 3.67 | 19% | 39.19 | 156% | 35 | 111.98% | | 零跑汽车 | 7.03 | 75% | 53.61 | 113.43% | 5 ...

与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月乘用车市场销量出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下 降1.1%；今年以来累计零售约2148.3万辆，同比增长6.1%。 其中，比亚迪新能源车月度批发销量超47万辆，吉利汽车紧随其后为18.7万辆，奇瑞汽车、上汽通用五 菱、长安汽车三家新能源车月度批发销量在10万辆，特斯拉中国、零跑汽车、赛力斯则在5万~9万辆区 间。在11月新能源车月度批发销量突破1万辆的22家厂商中，上汽通用和广汽丰田两家合资车企位列其 中，月批发量均为1.06万辆。 在这一背景下，11月我国新能源乘用车销量达到132.1万辆，同比增长4.2%，在国内总体乘用车的零售 渗透率逼近60%，为59.3%，较去年同期提升7个百分点。其中，自主品牌中的新能源车渗透率为 79.6%，豪华车中的新能源车渗透率为38.8%，主流合资品牌中的新能源车渗透率为8%。 从广义乘用车零售销量排名来看，比亚迪、吉利汽车、一汽-大众居前三，但其中有两家销量出现同比 下滑。而销量排在第三至第十名中，仅有鸿蒙智行销量同比出现95.2%的大幅增长。 在 ...

复盘来看，今年国内乘用车市场零售累计增速从1~2月增长1.2%，3~6月增长15%，7~9月增速徘徊在6%左右， 10~11月回落到偏低状态，呈现四季度高基数的减速特征，基本符合乘联分会在今年年初所判断的"前低中高后 平"的走势。 乘联分会认为，今年调节车市增速的重要政策是"以旧换新"。截至10月22日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量突 破千万辆，前11个月申请量已达1120万辆。随着各地补贴大面积暂停，11月的日均补贴规模降到3万辆，增速调节 效果明显。 新能源车月销1万辆以上车企增至22家 与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月国内乘用车市场销量同比出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售销量约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下 降1.1%；今年以来累计零售销量约2148.3万辆，同比增长6.1%。 "11月乘用车市场销量环比出现下降，是比较少见的。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树认为，今年上半年，我国乘用车市 场销量实现了13%的较快增长，下半年车市增长需要回到合理、稳定的状态。 图片来源：每经记者 张建 摄 随着众多车企在新能源车路线上"多线并举"策略的实施，1 ...

与往年年底车市翘尾走势不同的是，今年11月国内乘用车市场销量同比出现下滑。 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月，全国乘用车市场零售销量约222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降1.1%；今年以来累计零售销量约2148.3万 辆，同比增长6.1%。 "11月乘用车市场销量环比出现下降，是比较少见的。"乘联分会秘书长崔东树认为，今年上半年，我国乘用车市场销量实现了13%的较快增长，下半年车市 增长需要回到合理、稳定的状态。 图片来源：每经记者 张建 摄（资料图） 复盘来看，今年国内乘用车市场零售累计增速从1~2月增长1.2%，3~6月增长15%，7~9月增速徘徊在6%左右，10~11月回落到偏低状态，呈现四季度高基数 的减速特征，基本符合乘联分会在今年年初所判断的"前低中高后平"的走势。 乘联分会认为，今年调节车市增速的重要政策是"以旧换新"。截至10月22日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量突破千万辆，前11个月申请量已达1120万辆。 随着各地补贴大面积暂停，11月的日均补贴规模降到3万辆，增速调节效果明显。 新能源车月销1万辆以上车企增至22家 随着众多车企在新能源车路线上"多线并举"策略的实 ...

此外，市场竞争也愈发激烈，10万级国产纯电车市场新"选手"不断涌入，如小鹏MONA M03、吉利银河E5等。对比之下，大众ID.3在尺寸、智能化、配置和 纯电续航等方面全面处于下风，出色的操控性难以弥补性价比的缺失。 除此之外，上汽大众ID.3还面临着智能系统故障的困扰。在这之中，自动刹停问题尤为突出，多位车主反映，车辆在隧道或光线复杂路段行驶时，自动刹车 系统会无预警启动，导致车速骤降甚至瞬停，严重威胁驾驶安全。车质网数据显示，此类投诉已超20起，传感器误判被指为主因。经销商与厂方的检测结果 却屡屡显示"系统正常"，无故障记录，这进一步加剧了车主的不信任。 曾几何时，上汽大众ID.3凭借合资背景与德系品质的光环也有过月销过万辆的成绩，但进入2025年，其在市场上的境遇却急转直下，今年10月只卖出了2261 辆新车。 今年初，新款大众ID.3聪明款上市，然而新车却并未给大众ID.3带来实质性的销量提振，原因主要有三个。首先是电池方面，新款电池组容量虽增加 0.8kWh，续航增加1km，但放弃了三元锂电池组，改用磷酸铁锂电池。理论上，磷酸铁锂电池成本降低，且三元锂电池能量密度和低温性能更优，新款大众 ID.3在 ...

Core Insights - The delivery rankings of new car manufacturers have undergone significant changes in November, with a reshuffling of positions following the "golden September and silver October" period [1] Group 1: Delivery Rankings - Hongmeng Zhixing topped the delivery chart with 81,864 units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 90% and a month-on-month increase of 20% [2][3] - Leap Motor maintained its position as the "single brand champion" with 70,327 units delivered, marking its second consecutive month above 70,000 [4] - Xiaomi entered the top three with over 40,000 units, while BYD's Fangchengbao emerged as a dark horse with 37,405 units [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In the second tier, brands like Xiaopeng (36,728 units) and NIO (36,275 units) are in close competition, with Ideal (33,181 units) and Deep Blue (33,060 units) also in the mix [5][21] - Zeekr accelerated its growth with 28,843 units, while Lantu broke the 20,000 mark for the first time [6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Challenges - Despite high delivery numbers, companies like Leap Motor face challenges in profitability, with a net profit of 150 million yuan in Q3, down 8% from the previous quarter [12][13] - Xiaomi's automotive division reported a 700 million yuan operating profit in Q3, making it the fastest to achieve profitability among new forces, yet its stock price has been under pressure due to negative publicity [14][15] - NIO's stock fell 20% in November after lowering its Q4 delivery guidance, indicating challenges in meeting profitability targets [24][30] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Xiaopeng is transitioning to a dual strategy of pure electric and range-extended vehicles, with plans to launch three new range-extended models in Q1 next year [19][20] - NIO is focusing on high-end models to improve overall gross margins, while also facing pressure to enhance profitability [22][26] - Ideal is adjusting its organizational structure and technology to address ongoing challenges, with a focus on ramping up production of its new electric model [28][30]

Core Viewpoint - The delivery rankings of new car manufacturers have undergone significant changes in November, with a reshuffling of positions following the "golden September and silver October" period, highlighting the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market [4][6]. Group 1: Delivery Rankings - Hongmeng Zhixing topped the delivery chart with 81,864 vehicles delivered, a year-on-year increase of 90% and a month-on-month increase of 20%, becoming the "alliance leader" among new forces [5][10]. - Leap Motor maintained its position as the "single brand champion" with 70,327 vehicles delivered, indicating a strong competitive dynamic between the top two players [6][17]. - Xiaomi entered the third position with over 40,000 vehicles delivered, while BYD's Fangchengbao emerged as a dark horse with 37,405 vehicles, intensifying competition in the 30,000 to 40,000 vehicle range [7][19]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The second tier of manufacturers is characterized by fierce competition, with brands like Xiaopeng and NIO facing challenges in maintaining their delivery volumes amid strategic adjustments and market pressures [24][26]. - NIO delivered 36,275 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of 76.3%, but faced stock price declines due to lowered fourth-quarter delivery guidance [28][29]. - Li Auto's deliveries reached 33,181 vehicles, showing signs of recovery, but the company still faces challenges in scaling production and maintaining profitability [32]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Sentiment - Xiaomi's automotive division reported a significant operating profit of 700 million yuan in Q3, making it the fastest profitable new force, despite facing negative market sentiment due to various controversies [20][21]. - Leap Motor's stock price fell by 9% in November, raising concerns about its ability to balance scale and profitability, especially in competitive price segments [17][18]. - The overall market sentiment reflects a growing scrutiny on profitability and sustainability, with companies needing to demonstrate not just sales growth but also healthy financial performance to meet investor expectations [36][37].

01 事件概述 2025年11月重点新能源车企交付量发布，据各公司披露数据： 零跑 70,327辆，同比+75.1%，环比+0.1%； 小鹏 36,728辆，同比+18.9%，环比-12.6%； 蔚来 36,275辆，同比+76.3%，环比-10.2%； 理想 33,181辆，同比-31.9%，环比+4.5%； 极氪 28,843辆，同比+6.8%，环比+34.6%； 小米超40,000辆 。 02 分析判断 ► 11 月车市短期承压，新能源渗透率持续提升。 11 月车市短期承压，新能源渗透率持续提升。 乘联会初步推算本月狭义乘用车零售总市场规模约为 225.0 万辆左右，同比 -8.7% ，环比持平，其中新能源零售预计 可达 135 万辆，渗透率有望首次升到 60.0% 。 11 月 5 家样本新势力车企（不含小米）合计交付 205,354 辆，同比 +22.7% 。 11 月车市进入年末冲刺阶段，虽然补贴 政策的调整引发了消费者观望情绪，但我们认为此举避免了 2025 年底对于 2026 年销量的过分透支，有利于 2026Q1 的车市趋稳回升。新能源渗透率的持续提升体现 了在补贴收紧后，自主新能源产品仍然 ...

新势力系列点评二十五 2025 年 11 月重点新能源车企交付量发布，据各公司披露数据： 零跑 70,327 辆，同比+75.1%，环比+0.1%； 小鹏 36,728 辆，同比+18.9%，环比-12.6%； 蔚来 36,275 辆，同比+76.3%，环比-10.2%； 理想 33,181 辆，同比-31.9%，环比+4.5%； 极氪 28,843 辆，同比+6.8%，环比+34.6%； 小米超 40,000 辆。 11 月车市短期承压，新能源渗透率持续提升。乘联会初步推算本月狭义乘用车零 售总市场规模约为 225.0 万辆左右，同比-8.7%，环比持平，其中新能源零售预 计可达 135 万辆，渗透率有望首次升到 60.0%。11 月 5 家样本新势力车企（不 含小米）合计交付 205,354 辆，同比+22.7%。11 月车市进入年末冲刺阶段，虽 然补贴政策的调整引发了消费者观望情绪，但我们认为此举避免了 2025 年底对 于 2026 年销量的过分透支，有利于 2026Q1 的车市趋稳回升。新能源渗透率的 持续提升体现了在补贴收紧后，自主新能源产品仍然具有较强的市场竞争力。 新势力销量稳健，零跑维持首位 ...

Core Insights - In November, several new energy vehicle companies reported their delivery data, with Leap Motor leading the sales with over 70,000 units delivered, followed by Xiaomi with over 40,000 units [1][4]. Delivery Performance - Leap Motor achieved a monthly delivery of 70,327 units, marking a year-on-year increase of over 75%, and has surpassed 500,000 cumulative sales for the year [4]. - Xiaomi's deliveries exceeded 40,000 units for the third consecutive month, with a total of over 500,000 units delivered since April 2024 [5]. - Xpeng and NIO both delivered over 30,000 units, with Xpeng at 36,728 units and NIO at 36,275 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% and 76.3% respectively [6][9]. - Li Auto's deliveries fell to 33,181 units, a year-on-year decline of 34.1%, attributed to product line adjustments and increased market competition [10]. Market Trends - The overall retail market for passenger vehicles in China saw a decline of 11% year-on-year in November, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 2% [3]. - The new energy vehicle market maintained growth, but the year-on-year growth rate slowed to 3% [3]. Historical Performance - Zeekr and Lantu both achieved significant milestones, with Zeekr delivering 28,843 units and Lantu surpassing 20,000 units for the first time, marking a historical high [11][12]. - Avita and Zhiji also set new records with deliveries of 14,057 and 13,577 units respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 21% and 35.7% [12]. Financial Performance - Xpeng reported a total revenue of 20.38 billion yuan for the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a gross margin of 20.1% [8]. - Leap Motor's financial performance improved significantly, with a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan for the third quarter, a 97.3% increase year-on-year [4].