2025年免签入境外国人有3008万人次，过去常说"外国人不来了"，结果现在突然蜂拥而至。深圳华强北的 街道上，春节刚过，空气里还残留着些许爆竹的硝烟味。但这几天，真正让本地商户感到"炸裂"的不是鞭 炮，而是满大街的金发碧眼。 根据最新的统计数据，今年春节期间，华强北的外籍游客数量暴涨了50%。如果把视线拉高，覆盖整个中 国版图，一个更庞大的数字会跳出来：2025年全年，免签入境的外国人达到了3008万人次。 编辑：L 有没有发现外国游客越来越多了？在北京吃烤鸭要排队，重庆洪崖洞挤满东南亚面孔，成都的熊猫基地甚 至成了日本人的集结地。看似热闹的背后，其实是一面镜子，把我们当前的经济结构和社会状况照了个通 透。 而身边的朋友却在感叹"钱越来越难挣，东西越来越不敢买"。这不仅仅是汇率的魔术，这是一场关于购买 力、尊严与经济周期的深度博弈。 这得益于去年不断扩容的免签朋友圈——38个国家试行单方面免签，29个国家实现全面互免。国门大开， 客似云来。但在这场热闹的"国际大串门"背后，一种微妙的错位感正在滋生。在社交媒体上，老外们挥舞 着钞票高喊"中国太便宜了"。 兰州的一家普通面馆里，一碗热气腾腾的牛肉面端上桌。本地 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来 "验牌时刻" 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2026 年 02 月 09 日 分析师：戴志锋 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】医药祝嘉 琦：战略重视原料药板块，价格修复 +新业务增量；积极把握医药底部机 会》2026-02-04 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】军工陈鼎 如：Space X 再申请百万颗卫星，商 业航天关注度持续提升》2026-02-03 今日预览 今日重点>> 【固收】吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收林 莎：如何在定位和投资上做好一只"固 收+"——基金四季报详细拆解》 2026-02-06 【食品饮料】何长天：快餐市场重焕生机，产品创新增时运营 研究分享>> 【固收】吕品：信用债类 ETF 持续净流出 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【固收】吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 近两周以来，债市的行情不断修复。尤其是以二永、10 年内期限为代表的配置型品种来说，债 ...

Group 1: Canned Food Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released three draft national standards for canned food to enhance industry standards and applicability [3] - The canned food industry in China is diverse but lacks innovation, particularly in attracting younger consumers [3][4] - Canned food prices are generally affordable, benefiting from economies of scale and technological advancements, with the industry upgrading through self-heating products and high-end categories [3][4] Group 2: New Beverage Trends - The sugar water shop model has gained popularity among franchisees, with brands like Mai Ji Milk rapidly expanding, but faces challenges such as high costs and low-frequency consumption [5] - The market for traditional Chinese health drinks is booming, with products like red bean and barley water seeing increased sales, driven by young consumers' health consciousness [6] - The beverage market is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with low-sugar and functional drinks becoming mainstream, while traditional brands face declining sales [7] Group 3: Functional and Innovative Products - Vitamin drinks are becoming essential for young consumers, especially during flu seasons, with brands like Nongfu Spring seeing significant sales growth [9] - The introduction of banana-flavored drinks by major brands reflects a trend towards health-conscious and innovative beverage offerings [10] - The global nutrition and health industry is witnessing a peak in raw material innovation, with a focus on standardized and stable ingredients [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Brand Strategies - The "medicinal food" trend is emerging, with a market size projected to reach 370 billion yuan, driven by policy support and technological advancements [12] - The rise of Chinese-style health drinks is creating a competitive landscape, with brands needing to address issues of standardization and supply chain integration [14] - The dairy industry is shifting focus from consumer markets to B2B opportunities, driven by the growth of new consumption formats like tea and coffee [15] Group 5: Brand Developments and Challenges - The beverage brand COMMUNE is preparing for an IPO, aiming to expand its presence despite facing challenges in same-store sales and rising costs [24] - The acquisition of the domestic soda brand Dayao by KKR marks a shift towards capitalizing on efficiency over emotional branding [25] - Dongpeng's coffee brand has rapidly gained market share, positioning itself among the top three in the ready-to-drink coffee market through strategic pricing and targeted marketing [26] Group 6: New Market Entrants and Innovations - The launch of Baoshifu's first bread store in Wuhan indicates its entry into the competitive bakery market, focusing on fresh and affordable products [27] - The Mexican baking group Bimbo is increasing investment in the Chinese market, leveraging local strategies and brand acquisitions to enhance market presence [28] - The recent leadership change at China Resources Beverage aims to optimize costs and drive new business growth amid evolving consumer trends [29]

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生徐鸿儒 蒙牛对妙可蓝多的控制或步入新阶段。 1月25日，妙可蓝多公告，柴琇被免副董事长、总经理及法定代表人职务，但继续担任公司董事。同 时，公司聘任蒯玉龙为总经理，法定代表人相应变更为蒯玉龙，其不再兼任公司行政总经理。柴琇为妙 可蓝多创始人。 蒯玉龙则有着浓郁的蒙牛背景。他于2021年随蒙牛入股担任妙可蓝多任财务总监，2025年升任行政总经 理。作为控股股东，蒙牛目前持股超37%。截至2025年末，柴琇依旧为妙可蓝多第二大股东，算上一致 行动人吉林省东秀商贸总计持股15.96%。 需要注意的，基于柴琇被免职，其与蒙牛关系显得有些尴尬。 柴琇此前已出具书面承诺，若因上述担保事项导致妙可蓝多产生直接或间接损失，将向公司足额补偿。 但经妙可蓝多的屡次敦促，柴琇截至公告日仍未履行该补偿承诺，也未给出明确的解决方案。 另据21世纪经济报道记者了解，柴琇对妙可蓝多的种种经营策略，在内部也遭遇了越来越多争议。 眼下，妙可蓝多终于回归增长区间。 2025年三季度，该公司营收同比增长14.22%至13.90亿元；归母净利润同比增长214.67%至4297万元。 背后是B端市场推动，尤其是在马苏 ...

老人的坚韧与担当打动了无数人，当地市民纷纷伸出援手：有人主动帮忙备菜、出摊，有人拍视频、做 直播帮着吆喝，只为让老人能早点收摊休息。 ■三湘都市报全媒体记者 杨洁规 通讯员 刘星宇 罗诗意 2025年4月，王国凤和老伴从老家来到深圳，支起了这个专为深夜劳动者服务的快餐摊。"客户多是的士 司机、网约车师傅、快递小哥和外卖骑手，少赚点没关系，就想让他们吃上一口热乎家常饭。" 老人朴 实的话语，道出定价初衷。 为了每天50份左右的餐食，两位老人从下午2点就开始备菜，7点动手炒菜，10点准时出摊，收摊时间则 要看生意好坏——早则凌晨两三点，晚则三四点。这份起早贪黑的生意并不算赚钱，行情好时一个月能 赚3000多元，行情差时甚至分文未得，但老人始终自力更生、乐观开朗。 原来，王国凤的儿子创业失败欠下债务，如今在深圳开出租车艰难还债；23岁的孙女不幸患病，每月仅 医药费就需 2000多元。"趁还干得动，多赚点既能养活自己，也能帮家里减轻负担" 。 凌晨的深圳街头寒意袭人，72岁的湖南大爷王国凤的快餐摊却暖意融融。8个菜15元管饱，五荤三素主 打地道湖南味，这位来自株洲攸县的老人，已在深夜街头摆摊大半年了。有网友把他摆摊的 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a differentiated recovery in consumer spending, emphasizing structural opportunities within the service sector, particularly in dining, education, and travel industries [3][5]. Group 1: Sector Review - The consumer confidence index in China has shown a slight recovery, but consumer willingness remains cautious, with a notable increase in savings and a decline in credit consumption [9][10]. - Service consumption is growing significantly faster than goods consumption, with a widening gap in growth rates, indicating a shift towards experience and service-oriented spending [21][25]. - Lower-tier cities are outperforming higher-tier cities in terms of consumption growth, driven by rising disposable incomes and stable property values [28][35]. Group 2: Dining Sector - The dining sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with a focus on cost-effectiveness and freshness. Recommendations include high-value brands like Xiaocaiyuan and Guming, as well as industrialized tea brands like Mixue [5][73]. - The average dining price has been under pressure, with a decline from 85 yuan in October 2023 to 73 yuan in November 2025, reflecting a shift towards more affordable dining options [72][76]. - The market share is increasingly concentrated among leading dining enterprises, with the revenue share of large-scale dining businesses rising from 20.2% in 2019 to 28.6% in 2025 [72][73]. Group 3: Education Sector - The education sector is witnessing strong demand, with improved competitive dynamics and reduced uncertainty due to clearer policies. Key players include TAL Education and Xueda Education, which leverage AI capabilities [5]. Group 4: Travel and Hospitality Sector - The domestic leisure travel market is growing, with inbound tourism contributing to incremental growth. Recommendations include focusing on scenic areas with strong operational capabilities like Emei Mountain and Changbai Mountain [5]. - The hotel sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with mid-to-high-end hotels performing better than budget hotels. The average daily rate (ADR) for high-end hotels has returned to pre-pandemic levels [60][63].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lao Xiang Ji, is facing significant challenges as it attempts its fourth IPO, with its valuation halved and a heavy reliance on its home market of Anhui, which is becoming a limiting factor for growth [3][5][15]. Group 1: IPO Attempts and Valuation - Lao Xiang Ji has made three previous attempts to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, following unsuccessful attempts in A-shares and two prior attempts in Hong Kong, indicating a desperate need for capital [3][5]. - The company's valuation has dropped from an expected 18 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan over three years, reflecting a significant loss of investor confidence [3][5]. Group 2: Business Model and Growth - The proportion of franchise stores has surged to 45.5%, indicating a shift from a fully-owned model to a franchise model, which raises concerns about quality control and brand integrity [5][7]. - Despite reporting revenue of 4.578 billion yuan and a net profit of 371 million yuan in the first eight months of 2025, there are suspicions that this growth may be inflated [5][11]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - The company has become overly reliant on its home market, with over 86% of its stores located in Anhui, leading to a lack of geographical diversification and potential market saturation [7][11]. - The heavy asset model that works in Anhui is proving ineffective in larger cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where logistics and management costs are significantly higher [9][11]. Group 4: Governance and Regulatory Issues - The company is controlled by the family of its founder, holding over 90% of the shares, which raises governance concerns among potential investors [9][11]. - Previous issues, such as an 80 million yuan social security debt and food safety violations, have tarnished the company's reputation and may deter foreign investment [11][15]. Group 5: Market Trends - The current market trend favors value-for-money offerings, contrasting with the company's previous focus on premium pricing, which may hinder its competitiveness [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Jefferies indicates a significant downward revision of the profit forecasts for Café de Coral (00341) for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, with net profit estimates reduced by 52%, 51%, and 44% respectively, due to lower-than-expected improvements in profit margins [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a 68% year-on-year decline in net profit to HKD 47 million for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026, which was below both Jefferies' and management's expectations [1] - Sales revenue decreased by 5% to HKD 4 billion during the same period, and adjusted EBITDA fell by 29% after excluding fair value losses and impairments from investment properties [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The weak performance is attributed to increased market competition in the Hong Kong fast-food sector and the impact of consumers traveling to mainland China and abroad [1] Group 3: Dividend and Management Confidence - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.1 per share, with a payout ratio of 122%, reflecting a strong cash position and management's confidence in improving operational conditions for the second half of the fiscal year ending March 2026 and beyond [1] Group 4: Target Price and Rating - Jefferies has lowered the target price for Café de Coral from HKD 6.81 to HKD 5.15, a reduction of 24%, while maintaining a "Hold" rating, indicating limited upside potential for the company's fast-food business transformation in Hong Kong [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jollibee Foods Corporation, the parent company of "Yonghe Dawang," plans to spin off its international business into a new entity named Jollibee Foods International, aiming for a U.S. stock exchange listing by the end of 2027. This move is part of a strategy to enhance growth and operational efficiency in overseas markets, particularly in China [1][7]. Group 1: Business Performance and Strategy - Jollibee's international business has shown strong performance, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% in Q3 2025, outperforming competitors like McDonald's and Domino's Pizza [4]. - In China, same-store sales growth reached 8.0%, driven by the expansion of third-party delivery platforms and improved dine-in performance [4]. - The company adopted a "price for volume" strategy, resulting in a 26% increase in transaction volume, which offset an 11% decline in average transaction value [6]. Group 2: Expansion and Market Positioning - Jollibee's expansion strategy includes a focus on a light-asset model, primarily through franchising, with 77% of the 754 new stores opened in the first nine months of 2025 being franchise locations [8][11]. - The introduction of the "Super Value Model" has reduced the investment payback period from 2.5-3 years to approximately 1.5 years, lowering the investment cost per store significantly [11]. - The company is strategically selecting locations in second-tier cities, focusing on residential areas to reduce rental costs and extend operating hours [11][12]. Group 3: Brand Management and Future Outlook - Jollibee is cautious with its brand "Tian Haowang," pausing expansion due to intense competition in the casual dining sector, while focusing on profitability in existing markets [12]. - The company aims to leverage its international business's scale post-spin-off to enhance profitability, similar to trends seen in other multinational restaurant chains [13].

Core Viewpoint - Jinan Agricultural and Rural Bureau has officially announced the list of leading enterprises in modern agricultural advantageous industrial clusters for 2025, with Jindeli Group and its affiliated food supply chain company being recognized for their solid business foundation and continuous innovation practices, highlighting their leadership in the integration of modern agriculture and the catering food industry in the city [1][2] Group 1 - The recognition of leading enterprises aims to commend high-quality companies that play a significant role in increasing farmers' income, promoting agricultural industry development, ensuring food security, and advancing agricultural modernization [1] - Jindeli Group has demonstrated positive results in modern agricultural industry chain integration, linking farmers, and brand building [1] - The company adheres to the mission of "providing safe food for the public" and focuses on fast food services, group meal distribution, and prepared dishes, establishing a comprehensive industrial chain ecosystem [1] Group 2 - Jindeli Group has established one modern food industry park, four large-scale meal distribution centers, and over 100 stores, benefiting 1,330 farming households and serving over 10 million consumers annually [1] - The company aims to strengthen innovation-driven development, deepen the entire food industry chain, enhance product quality and service efficiency, and further play a leading role in rural revitalization [2]