中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，贝壳-W(02423)作为业内龙头企业，在全国布局战略深化和平台优势 的加持下，将充分受益于行业规模的持续扩张。该行预计公司2025-2027年扣非归母净利润分别为53.8 亿、65.4亿和72.9亿元，当前股价对应PE分别为26.1倍、21.5倍、19.3倍，维持"买入"评级。贝壳发布 2025年三季度业绩公告，2025年前三季度公司实现营业收入723.9亿元，同比+16.1%;实现扣非归母净利 润29.1亿元，同比-16.8%。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 收入保持增长，门店及经纪人数量持续攀升 2025年前三季度公司实现营业收入723.9亿元，同比+16.1%，当前房地产市场承压，但公司收入规模仍 保持增长，展现了贝壳的市场竞争力;扣非归母净利润29.1亿元，同比-16.8%，主要系毛利率从上年同期 的25.3%降至21.4%，盈利能力有所下滑。截至三季度末，贝壳门店数同比增长27.3%，达到61393家;经 纪人数达到54.6万人，同比增长14.5%，整体规模保持扩张态势。 交易规模保持平稳，新兴业态发展良好 1)存量房业务：交易额(GTV)同比+5.8%，达到5056 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) is expected to benefit from the continuous expansion of the industry scale, supported by its strategic nationwide layout and platform advantages, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 5.38 billion, 6.54 billion, and 7.29 billion CNY respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Revenue Growth and Market Position - In the first three quarters of 2025, Beike achieved operating revenue of 72.39 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, demonstrating its market competitiveness despite pressure in the real estate market [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.91 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin from 25.3% to 21.4% [2] - As of the end of Q3, the number of Beike stores increased by 27.3% year-on-year to 61,393, and the number of agents reached 546,000, up 14.5% year-on-year, indicating overall scale expansion [2] Transaction Volume and Business Performance - The existing housing business saw a transaction volume (GTV) increase of 5.8% year-on-year to 505.6 billion CNY, with net income of 6 billion CNY, down 3.6% from the previous year [3] - The new housing business experienced a GTV decline of 13.7% to 196.3 billion CNY, with net income of 6.6 billion CNY, down 14.1% year-on-year due to a slowdown in the commodity housing market [3] - The home decoration business generated net income of 4.3 billion CNY, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, while rental services saw net income of 5.7 billion CNY, up 45.3% year-on-year, attributed to an increase in housing resources under the "worry-free rental" model [3] - Emerging businesses and others reported net income of 400 million CNY, down from 500 million CNY in the previous year [3] Shareholder Returns and Buyback Strategy - In Q3 2025, Beike's buyback amount reached 281 million USD, the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [4] - By the end of Q3 2025, the total buyback amount for the year reached 675 million USD, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Since initiating the buyback in September 2022, the company has repurchased approximately 2.3 billion USD worth of shares, representing 11.5% of the total shares before the buyback, reflecting confidence in future development and enhancing shareholder returns [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a 11% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, primarily driven by the growth in its secondary business segments [1] - The total transaction value (GTV) reached 878.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 32% year-on-year but improved by 30% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a mixed performance in profitability [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contributions from various segments are as follows: existing housing (26%), new housing (33%), home decoration and furnishing (18%), rental services (22%), and emerging businesses (2%) [1] - The existing housing business saw a transaction total of 583.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2] - The new housing business outperformed the market with a transaction total of 255.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [2] Profitability Metrics - The adjusted net profit margin was 7.0%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross profit margin was 21.9%, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.0 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 percentage points [1] - The contribution profit margin for the existing housing business improved to 39.9%, up 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Business Performance - The company had 61,000 stores and 558,000 agents by the end of Q2 2025, with active store and agent ratios of 97% and 88%, respectively [2] - The home decoration and furnishing business generated 4.6 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2] - The rental services segment saw a significant revenue increase of 78% year-on-year, totaling 5.7 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, expecting adjusted net profits of 6.3 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are 1.77 yuan and 2.00 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 23.9 and 21.2 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 11% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily driven by the growth in its secondary business segments [8][12] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 32% year-on-year but an increase of 30% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, expecting adjusted net profits of 6.3 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan respectively [83] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total transaction value (GTV) of 878.7 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, with total revenue of 26 billion yuan [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 7.0%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [12] Business Segments Performance - The existing housing business contributed a transaction value of 583.5 billion yuan, with a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% [26] - The new housing business showed a transaction value of 255.4 billion yuan, with a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year [49] - The home decoration and furniture business generated 4.6 billion yuan in revenue, up 13% year-on-year, while the rental service revenue surged by 78% year-on-year [63] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company maintains a market share of 12.5% in the new housing sector, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [49] - The adjusted earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.77 yuan and 2.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.9 and 21.2 [83]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 93.5 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, while net profit decreased by 30.8% to 4.078 billion RMB [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 54.1% year-on-year, reaching 31.1 billion RMB, driven by total transaction volume growth and expansion in the rental business [1][2]. - The company's "One Body Three Wings" strategy is progressing steadily, with notable growth in both existing and new housing transaction businesses [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a non-GAAP adjusted net profit of 7.211 billion RMB, down 26.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.6%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a gross profit of 7.2 billion RMB, a 39.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23%, down 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. Existing Housing Business - By the end of 2024, the number of active stores increased by 18.3% year-on-year to 49,700, and the number of active agents reached 445,000, up 12.1% year-on-year [2]. - The net income from existing housing for the entire year was 28.2 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year, contributing a profit of 12.18 billion RMB with a profit margin of 43.2%, down 4.0 percentage points from the previous year [2]. New Housing Business - The new housing segment generated a net income of 33.7 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, contributing a profit of 8.35 billion RMB with a profit margin of 24.8%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - In the fourth quarter of 2024, new housing net income reached 13.1 billion RMB, a 72.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross transaction volume (GTV) of 355.3 billion RMB, up 49.3% year-on-year [3]. Non-Housing Growth Engines - The home decoration business generated 14.8 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, a 36.1% increase year-on-year, with a profit margin of 30.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The rental business saw a revenue increase of 135% year-on-year to 14.3 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 5%, turning positive from a negative margin in the previous year [4]. - Emerging businesses and others contributed 2.5 billion RMB in revenue, an 8.8% increase year-on-year, primarily due to increased net income from financial services [4].