研究报告 橡胶周报 供给预增需求弱势，胶价或将震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13900-14185 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格偏弱震荡，总体微幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 报收 14005 元/吨，当周下跌 40 点，跌幅 0.28%。 后续重点关注橡胶主产区天气扰动情况、终端需求变化情 况、零关税政策推进情况、欧盟反倾销调查最新进展和中美关 税变化情况。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约短期或将震荡偏弱运行。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑逢高试空。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考， ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 多空交织趋势不明，胶价维持区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14555-15310 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格冲高回落，维持区间震荡，总体小幅 上涨。 截至 2025 年 5 月 16 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14905 元/吨，当周上涨 285 点，涨幅 1.95%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格冲高回落，维持低位 震荡，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，从宏观面来看，上周中美两国互相大幅降低关 税水平，市场情绪有所回暖。从基本面来看，天气扰动主产区 割胶工作，成本支撑有所增强。天然橡胶进口增加明显。需求 方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均明显回升，企业出货表现不佳， 成品库存持续 ...

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - In the first quarter, China's five-mineral chemical industry had a total import and export value of $452.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [1] - The main products in the industry saw mixed performance, with chemical products and mineral products exports increasing, while hardware and building materials exports declined [1] Group 2: Export Performance - Chemical product exports reached $74.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - Mineral product exports amounted to $46 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.1% [1] - Hardware and building materials exports were $54.4 billion, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [1] - Major export markets included the US, South Korea, Vietnam, and India, with exports to India increasing by 5.4% to $8.2 billion, while exports to the US, Vietnam, and South Korea decreased [1] Group 3: Import Performance - Hardware and building materials imports grew by 0.7% to $8.4 billion, while chemical and mineral product imports saw declines [2] - Chemical product imports were $144.5 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - Mineral product imports totaled $123.9 billion, reflecting a significant decrease of 20% [2] Group 4: Specific Product Insights - In the tire sector, China's new inflatable rubber tire exports reached 2.15 million tons, up 5.9%, with an export value of $5.3 billion, also up 5.7% [2] - Steel exports were 27.43 million tons, increasing by 6.3%, but the export value fell by 4.8% to $19.4 billion [2] - Refined oil exports decreased significantly, with a volume of 12.45 million tons, down 16%, and a value of $8.6 billion, down 22.8% [2] - Copper ore imports increased by 1.8% in volume to 7.11 million tons, with a value of $17.2 billion, up 4% [4] - Crude oil imports fell by 1.5% to 135.27 million tons, with a value of $74.8 billion, down 8.3% [4] - Iron ore imports decreased by 7.8% in volume to 285.33 million tons, with a significant value drop of 27.5% to $28.3 billion [4] - Liquefied natural gas imports saw a 20.9% decrease in volume to 15.56 million tons, with a value of $8.7 billion, down 24.5% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]