研究报告 橡胶月报 基本面多空交织，盘面或偏强运行 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 2 月天然橡胶主力合约 RU2605 价格在 15835-17370 元/吨之 间运行，走势震荡上行，当月总体涨幅较大。 截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约报收 17155 元/吨，当月上涨 795 点，涨幅 4.86%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 2 月国内天然橡胶期货主力合约走势先抑后扬，涨幅较大。 展望后市，宏观方面，当地时间 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列 对伊朗发动空袭，对全球商品产生巨大影响，其中化工板块受 到原油供给紧张的提振，短期情绪或维持强势。从基本面来看， 供给方面，全球天然橡胶新胶产出压力缓解，供应端压力有所 减轻。原料收购价格延续涨势，成本端对胶价支撑明显。需求 方面，节后下游企业复产复工，开工率 ...

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 23, cup rubber is priced at 50.45 THB/kg (+0.10), while latex is at 55.30 THB/kg (-0.50) [1] - The acquisition price for Yunnan rubber water is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan private rubber water is 16,000 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard is 1,830 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed is 14,800 CNY/ton (-50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, up 0.13 percentage points month-on-month, but down 6.92 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, up 0.05 percentage points month-on-month and up 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 46.02 days, up 0.08 days month-on-month and up 9.33 days year-on-year; for all-steel tire sample enterprises, it is 39.13 days, up 0.30 days month-on-month and down 5.47 days year-on-year [1] Export Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with an export value of 114.2 billion CNY, up 4.6% [2] - The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 6.26 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year, with an export value of 109.7 billion CNY, up 4.4% [2] - The export volume of automotive tires was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with an export value of 94.4 billion CNY, up 4.1% [2] Market Dynamics - Supply expectations indicate a potential weakening of raw material prices, with cost support shifting from strong to weak; however, recent typhoon weather has raised concerns about short-term supply release [2] - Downstream tire manufacturers have largely completed pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a slowdown in the inventory reduction pace of natural rubber [2] - Despite some enterprises facing shortages, overall shipment performance is below expectations, and some companies may adopt flexible production control to alleviate inventory pressure [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the main contract of natural rubber futures may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts boosts rubber prices, the supply side has certain support, the demand side shows average performance, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to decline. Key factors to watch include the tri - lateral meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the Fed's interest rate cuts, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of zero - tariff policies, the latest developments in EU anti - dumping investigations, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2601 ranged from 15,470 to 16,020 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and slightly weaker trend with a total slight decline. As of August 22, 2025, it closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, down 280 points or 1.76% for the week [16]. - **Spot Price**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,210 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [20][22]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis between the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) and the main natural rubber contract price shrank slightly last week. As of August 22, 2025, the basis was - 975 yuan/ton, 180 yuan/ton smaller than last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined slightly last week [26][29]. 2. Important Market Information - **Geopolitical News**: The US plans a tri - lateral meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. The US and Ukraine may sign a 100 - billion - dollar weapon purchase agreement and a 50 - billion - dollar drone cooperation production agreement [30]. - **Monetary Policy**: Fed Chairman Powell's speech increased the market's bet on a September interest rate cut. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, but some members supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut [31][32]. - **Economic Data**: The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate. The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached a new high since May 2022, while the initial jobless claims increased [31][33]. - **Automobile Industry**: In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also had significant growth. The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in August is about 1.94 million, with a 6.2% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase [34][36]. 3. Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of June 30, 2025, Thailand's production increased significantly, while Indonesia's production decreased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in June 2025 was 835,400 tons, a 15.6% increase from the previous month [42]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [47][51]. - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires**: As of July 31, 2025, China's import of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,400 tons, a 10.64% month - on - month increase [55]. 4. Demand - side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rate**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.13%, up 1.47% from last week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.76%, up 2.65% from last week [57]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase and a 7.27% month - on - month decrease; monthly sales were 2.5934 million, a 14.66% year - on - year increase and a 10.71% month - on - month decrease. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 84,885, a 45.62% year - on - year increase and a 13.26% month - on - month decrease [61][64][70]. - **Tire Production and Export**: As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 94.364 million, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million, a 10.51% month - on - month increase [73][77]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Futures Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 178,470 tons, 1,460 tons less than last week. - **Social Inventory and Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.285 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period. The total inventory in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period [86]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Currently in the peak supply season, heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian and domestic production areas and the landing of Typhoon "Jianyu" in Hainan affect tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a 2.47% month - on - month increase and a 1.91% year - on - year decrease [87]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. Downstream tire manufacturers maintained rigid demand purchases. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and heavy - duty truck sales increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased by 4.5% year - on - year [87]. - **Inventory**: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, the social inventory increased slightly, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [87]. 7. Market Outlook and Operation Strategy - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts boosts rubber prices, the supply side has certain support, the demand side shows average performance, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to decline. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][88]. - **Operation Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, consider buying call options on dips. Pay attention to the resistance around 15,900 - 16,000 [10][90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward with a relatively large increase. Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, the data released last week showed that the US CPI increased year-on-year in June, the PPI was flat month-on-month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased for the fifth consecutive week, increasing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Fundamentally, on the supply side, recent weather disturbances in major producing areas have led to a shortage of raw material supply, supporting rubber prices, but there is still a strong expectation of increased supply. Imports increased year-on-year in June. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded last week, and finished product inventories remained at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, automobile production and sales and heavy truck sales improved in June, and continuous consumption stimulus policies in China boosted demand. China's tire exports increased slightly year-on-year in the first half of the year. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly. In summary, weather disturbances in major producing areas support raw material prices to remain firm, terminal demand has improved, China's macro sentiment is positive, and the commodity market atmosphere has warmed up, driving the rubber market to continue to strengthen. It is expected that the market may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [8][85]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, fluctuated between 14,225 - 14,980 yuan/ton, with a relatively large overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of July 18, 2025, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, closed at 14,810 yuan/ton, rising 450 points for the week, a 3.13% increase [6][15]. - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three smoked sheets (RSS3) was 19,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,290 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous week [20][22]. - **Basis and Spread**: Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two was flat compared with the previous week. As of July 18, 2025, the basis remained at -10 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared with the previous week [26][29]. Important Market Information - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 7,000 to 221,000 last week, dropping to the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the job market. The US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both lower than market expectations. After the data was released, traders predicted that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September, with a cumulative nearly two - time rate cut by the end of the year. The US PPI was flat month-on-month in June, and the core PPI was also flat, with the smallest year - on - year increase since the end of 2023. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was at a five - month low. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, but uncertainty remained high [30][31]. - **China's Economic Data**: Foreign institutions collectively raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025. China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year in June, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 4.8%. In the first half of the year, China's total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. China's total goods trade import and export value in the first half of the year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports increasing by 2.3%. The prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month in June, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year-on-year, and the retail sales of the new energy passenger car market increased by 26% year-on-year. In June, China's automobile production and sales increased by 11.4% and 13.8% year-on-year respectively, and heavy truck sales increased by about 29% year-on-year [32][33][34]. Supply - Side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of May 31, 2025, the production in Thailand's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the production in China's and Vietnam's main producing areas increased significantly. The production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India increased slightly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in May 2025 was 722,700 tons, a 43.05% increase from the previous month [40]. - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 703,000 tons, a 3.7% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production was 4.231 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [44][48]. - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires**: As of June 30, 2025, China's import of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9,400 tons, a 3.3% month - on - month increase [52]. Demand - Side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 75.99%, up 3.07% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.1%, up 0.54% from the previous week [54]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, a 11.43% year - on - year increase and a 5.5% month - on - month increase; monthly sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, a 13.83% year - on - year increase and an 8.12% month - on - month increase. The monthly sales of heavy trucks were 97,864 vehicles, a 37.14% year - on - year increase and a 10.25% month - on - month increase [57][60][66]. - **Tire Production and Export**: As of June 30, 2025, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 102.749 million pieces, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 60.31 million pieces, a 2.44% month - on - month decrease [69][74]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous week. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.14% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. The total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a 0.63% increase [83]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Currently, the global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, major domestic and foreign producing areas have been affected by weather, with firm raw material prices. There are also expectations of production cuts in Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula in China due to typhoon threats, boosting rubber prices. However, there is still a strong expectation of increased supply. In June 2025, China's total imports of natural and synthetic rubber were 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [84]. - **Demand**: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded, and downstream buyers mainly waited and watched while making appropriate replenishments. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tires remained at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales in June were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year increase. Heavy truck sales increased by 10.25% month - on - month and 37.14% year - on - year in June. China's rubber tire exports in the first half of 2025 were 4.71 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year increase. Consumption stimulus policies have been continuously introduced in various regions of China [84]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly [84]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated upward last week with a relatively large increase. Looking ahead, due to weather disturbances in major producing areas supporting raw material prices, improved terminal demand, positive domestic macro sentiment, and a warming commodity market atmosphere, the rubber market is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Key factors to focus on in the future include changes in China's macro sentiment, weather disturbances in major rubber producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of zero - tariff policies, the latest progress of EU anti - dumping investigations, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [85]. Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate with a slightly stronger trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 15,000 yuan/ton. In operation, it is recommended to maintain an oscillatory and bullish mindset [9][86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber futures is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. The interference of weather in the main producing areas supports the raw material price to remain firm, terminal demand has improved, and the "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, driving the rubber market higher [8][83] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing an upward - trending oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of the close on July 11, 2025, it closed at 14,360 yuan/ton, up 355 points or 2.53% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of July 11, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [21] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two slightly shrank. As of July 11, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 10 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton narrower than the previous week [24] - As of July 11, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [26] Important Market Information - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [28] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe in multiple rate cuts this year, while others are cautious due to tariff - induced inflation concerns [27][29][30] - China's June CPI rose year - on - year, and PPI declined month - on - month. The auto market showed signs of recovery in June [32][33][34] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of natural rubber in major producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [40] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [44][48] - As of May 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [51] Demand - side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.92%, up 2.51% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.56%, up 0.81% from the previous week [54] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%; monthly sales were 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74% [58][61] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [66] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [69] - As of May 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [74] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 11, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 188,690 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from the previous week [81] - As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons or 0.02%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45% [81] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons or 0.05%; the bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [81] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41% [82] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded. The terminal auto market showed signs of recovery in June, and consumption - boosting policies were continuously introduced. In May 2025, China's tire exports increased year - on - year [82] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory changed little [82] 后市展望 - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigation updates, and Sino - US tariff changes [83] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of rubber prices has returned to fundamentals with reduced influence from external geopolitical conflicts. The current rubber supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and the futures price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [8][84][85] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing a weak and volatile trend with a slight decline overall. As of July 4, 2025, it closed at 14,005 yuan/ton, down 40 points or 0.28% for the week [14] - **Spot Price**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 19,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 14,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,250 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][21] - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly shrank. As of July 4, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The domestic price of natural rubber slightly declined last week, while the overseas price remained flat [24][27] Important Market Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: US non - farm payrolls in June significantly exceeded expectations, reducing the expectation of a July interest rate cut. China's Caixin Services PMI in June was below expectations, but the China Logistics Prosperity Index continued to rise. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June reached its highest level since August 2022 [8][31] - **Automobile Market**: In June, China's heavy - truck sales recovered, and new energy vehicle sales increased. The 1 - 5 month cumulative export of Chinese tires increased slightly year - on - year. The inventory of tire enterprises was high, and the start - up rate decreased last week [33][35][53] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber - producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month. The monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [39][44][48] Demand - side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the start - up rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 70.41%, down 7.64% from the previous week; the start - up rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 63.75%, down 1.89% from the previous week. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month [53][57][60] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,110 tons to 18,885 tons. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [81] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recently, weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [82] - **Demand**: Last week, the start - up rate of tire enterprises decreased, downstream factories purchased on demand, and tire inventory reduction was slow. In June, heavy - truck sales recovered, and from January to May, China's tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [82] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, while China's social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate [82] 后市展望 - The price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract fluctuated in a range last week, rising after falling and showing a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, the rubber supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigations, and Sino - US tariff changes [84] Operation Strategy - The main natural rubber futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose after reaching a high and maintained low - level volatility, with a slight overall increase. In the future, due to factors such as China and the US significantly reducing tariffs on each other, supply support, fair terminal demand, and a slight increase in inventory, the market has a mix of long and short factors, and the trend is not clear. It is expected that the futures market will maintain range - bound volatility in the short term [7][84] - The report suggests that investors should temporarily wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices [8][85] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 fluctuated between 14,555 - 15,310 yuan/ton. The futures price rose after reaching a high and maintained range - bound volatility, with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 16, 2025, the contract was reported at 14,905 yuan/ton, up 285 points or 1.95% for the week [6][11] Spot Price - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [17] - As of May 16, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,320 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from the previous week [21] Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the spot price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly. As of May 16, 2025, the basis was maintained at 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous week [26] - As of May 16, 2025, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased significantly compared to the previous week [30] Important Market Information - In April, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. Traders continued to bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October [31] - On May 14, the US adjusted its additional tariffs on China, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, suspending the imposition of 24% of the tariffs for 90 days, and retaining the remaining 10% of the tariffs. It also lowered the ad - valorem tax rate on small international mail parcels from China from 120% to 54% and cancelled the measure to increase the specific tax from 100 US dollars to 200 US dollars per piece, which was originally scheduled to take effect on June 1 [31] - In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5% month - on - month, with service prices dropping by 0.7%, the largest single - month decline since 2009. Retail sales only increased by 0.1% month - on - month, significantly lower than the strong 1.7% increase in March. Manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the first decline in six months. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since the end of 2023 [32] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US remained stable, with 229,000 claims in the previous week, in line with market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million in the previous week [32] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable. It stated that the downgrade reflected the increase in government debt, and it was expected that by 2035, the US federal debt burden would rise to 134% of GDP and the federal government deficit would reach 9% of GDP [32] - From May 10th to 11th, China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland. The two sides reached important consensuses and made substantial progress, agreeing to establish a China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. On May 12th, a joint statement was released, stating that both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs accordingly [33] - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods originating from the US, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10%, suspending the implementation of 24% of the additional tariffs on the US for 90 days, and stopping the implementation of the additional tariff measures stipulated in Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 [34] - In 2024, the average annual salary of employees in non - private urban units nationwide was 124,110 yuan, with a nominal increase of 2.8% and a comparable - caliber increase of 2.6%; the average annual salary of employees in private urban units was 69,476 yuan, with a nominal increase of 1.7% and a comparable - caliber increase of 4% [34] - In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the export of new - energy passenger cars was 189,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [35] - In April, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. In April, automobile exports were 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively [35] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared to 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing the same level year - on - year [36] - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative number of subsidy applications has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the number of subsidy applications for automobile trade - in in 2025 reached 3.225 million, with new - energy vehicles accounting for more than 53% [36] - According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month. In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year to 14.897 million tons, and the consumption was expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 15.59 million tons [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly compared to the previous month; the production in Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China were gradually starting to tap rubber and the output was increasing. The total production of the main natural rubber producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [41] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [45] - As of March 31, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [48] - As of March 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 920 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [51] Demand - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.33%, an increase of 19.98% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.09%, an increase of 20.32% from the previous week [54] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88% [58] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [61] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 87,667 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [66] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [69] - As of March 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 16, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from the previous week [82] - As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.05%. Among them, the total social inventory of dark rubber was 830,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%; the total social inventory of light rubber was 525,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1% [82] - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons or 0.73%. Among them, the bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09% [82] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the main natural rubber producing areas in the world are gradually starting to tap rubber. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by bad weather, which has affected the tapping work, resulting in less raw material output and firm prices, strengthening cost support. In April 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative imports from January to April were 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2% [83] - On the demand side, last week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires rebounded significantly. However, the enterprises' sales performance was poor, and the finished - product inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, in April, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month; the heavy - truck market sales increased by 6.52% year - on - year but decreased by 21.36% month - on - month; the cumulative heavy - truck sales from January to April were the same as the previous year, indicating fair terminal consumption. The trade - in policy in various regions of China continued to promote terminal consumption [83] - In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to increase slightly [83] Market Outlook - Last week, the price of the main domestic natural rubber futures contract rose after reaching a high and maintained low - level volatility, with a slight overall increase. In the future, the market has a mix of long and short factors, and the trend is not clear. It is expected that the futures market will maintain range - bound volatility in the short term. Key factors to focus on in the future include the impact of the macro and policy aspects, the weather changes in the main producing areas, the tapping situation in the main producing areas at home and abroad, the rubber import situation, the demand change situation, and the inventory change situation [7][84] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will maintain range - bound volatility this week. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices [8][85]

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - In the first quarter, China's five-mineral chemical industry had a total import and export value of $452.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [1] - The main products in the industry saw mixed performance, with chemical products and mineral products exports increasing, while hardware and building materials exports declined [1] Group 2: Export Performance - Chemical product exports reached $74.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - Mineral product exports amounted to $46 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.1% [1] - Hardware and building materials exports were $54.4 billion, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [1] - Major export markets included the US, South Korea, Vietnam, and India, with exports to India increasing by 5.4% to $8.2 billion, while exports to the US, Vietnam, and South Korea decreased [1] Group 3: Import Performance - Hardware and building materials imports grew by 0.7% to $8.4 billion, while chemical and mineral product imports saw declines [2] - Chemical product imports were $144.5 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - Mineral product imports totaled $123.9 billion, reflecting a significant decrease of 20% [2] Group 4: Specific Product Insights - In the tire sector, China's new inflatable rubber tire exports reached 2.15 million tons, up 5.9%, with an export value of $5.3 billion, also up 5.7% [2] - Steel exports were 27.43 million tons, increasing by 6.3%, but the export value fell by 4.8% to $19.4 billion [2] - Refined oil exports decreased significantly, with a volume of 12.45 million tons, down 16%, and a value of $8.6 billion, down 22.8% [2] - Copper ore imports increased by 1.8% in volume to 7.11 million tons, with a value of $17.2 billion, up 4% [4] - Crude oil imports fell by 1.5% to 135.27 million tons, with a value of $74.8 billion, down 8.3% [4] - Iron ore imports decreased by 7.8% in volume to 285.33 million tons, with a significant value drop of 27.5% to $28.3 billion [4] - Liquefied natural gas imports saw a 20.9% decrease in volume to 15.56 million tons, with a value of $8.7 billion, down 24.5% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]