周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 炒作提振工业硅价格，硅片再度下调报价 | 报告日期： | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 2025 11 月 | 年 | | | | | 日 | | 孙伟东 从业资格号: | 有色金属首席分析师 F3035243 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | Tel: | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号: Email: | | | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] | 4 台、云南减少 2 | | | 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆减少 | | | | 台，内蒙古 | | | | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 1 | | 台，甘肃增加 | | | | | | | | | 增加 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 23 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Z0014605 8621-63325888 weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 有机硅、己内酰胺协同性确立, ]景气上行, 反内卷加速化] are fi -《化工周报 25/11/17-25/11/21》 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 日听降 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本期投资局示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 基代化工 相关研究 当前时点的化工宏观判断。原油：供应方面,OPEC+增产推迟,页岩油产量达峰,供 给增速放缓。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——《化工周报 25/11/17-25/11/21》 证 券 研 究 报 告 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 2025 年 11 月 23 日 有机硅、己内酰胺协同性确立，或 迎景气上行，反内卷加速化工拐点 来临 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 行业点评 1．行业动态 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 有机硅欲"反内卷" ，硅片企业联合挺价 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 11 | 月 | 16 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周四川、福建、东北各减少 1 台开炉，内 蒙、甘肃新增 1、2 台开炉。西南枯水期预计仍有进一步停 炉，11 月月底四川开炉数预计将至 10 台内，云南开炉数预计 降至 12 台左右。北方生产较为稳定，关注历年来环保、限电 可能对开工造成的阶段性影响。SMM 工业硅社会库存环比-0.6 万吨，样本工厂库存环比+0.06 万吨。目前平衡表显示 11 月工 业硅小幅累库、12 月去库约 1 万吨。但若有机硅"反内卷"减 产执行到位，或导致 12 月工业硅也难以去库。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 根据 Infolink，本周现货以交付前期订单为主，并无新签订 单。龙头一线厂家致密复投料价格维持 51-53 元/千克以上，颗 粒料维持 50 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) are marginally improving, with prices expected to continue rising due to strong demand recovery and tight supply conditions [1][3] - The domestic production capacity of LiPF6 is concentrated among a few companies, which are likely to benefit from price increases and improved profitability [2] - The lithium-ion battery materials sector is experiencing robust demand growth, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, indicating a broad demand outlook [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market operating rate for LiPF6 is 75.43%, with most manufacturers operating at full capacity, leading to a supply shortage [1] - As of October 17, 2025, LiPF6 prices have risen to 75,000 CNY/ton, marking a 16.3% increase from the previous week and a 20.0% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Production Capacity - China's LiPF6 production capacity stands at 442,900 tons/year, with effective capacity at 389,400 tons/year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [2] - Major producers include Tianqi Lithium, Dongyue Group, and others, with significant expansions planned for 2025-2027 [2] Market Demand - The energy storage sector saw a cumulative bidding scale of 211.11 GWh from January to August 2025, with new installations reaching 21.9 GW/55.2 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 69.4% and 76.6% respectively [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, up 0.12%, with a trading volume of 209,588 lots and an open interest of 131,649 lots, a net decrease of 10,732 lots. Spot prices are mainly stable, basis fluctuations are weakening, and capital divergence is converging. Supply pressure remains high, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There is no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organosilicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The supply-demand surplus pressure persists, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The policy side is in a vacuum period. Future support is mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits need to be observed. The fundamentals are difficult to provide significant drivers, and the short-term price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 and 9,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: Industrial silicon futures prices oscillated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, up 0.12%, with a trading volume of 209,588 lots and an open interest of 131,649 lots, a net decrease of 10,732 lots [4] - Future outlook: Spot prices are mainly stable, basis fluctuations are weakening, and capital divergence is converging. Supply pressure remains high, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There is no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organosilicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The supply-demand surplus pressure persists, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The policy side is in a vacuum period. Future support is mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits need to be observed. The fundamentals are difficult to provide significant drivers, and the short-term price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 and 9,000 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market News - On October 16, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,291 lots, a net decrease of 66 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The organosilicon DMC market is stable, with quotes ranging from 11,100 to 11,500 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers still have some pre-sold orders as support. Currently, the number of manufacturers under maintenance is relatively large, and some manufacturers plan to enter maintenance, leading to a reduction in market supply [5] - On October 16, there was a rumor that a polysilicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and a joint management account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese chemical industry** and its transition from a "cash-consuming beast" to a "cash-generating tree" due to reduced capital expansion and strong operating cash flow [1][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expansion Trends**: The capital expenditure in the basic chemical industry is decreasing, with the proportion of construction projects to fixed assets declining. This trend is expected to continue, leading to positive free cash flow over the next five years [1][4][5]. - **Cash Flow and Dividends**: The petrochemical sector has turned positive in operating cash flow, with a potential dividend yield exceeding 10% by 2027 for some companies if 70% of cash flow is allocated to dividends [1][9]. - **Cost Advantages**: Chinese chemical companies benefit from lower energy and labor costs compared to European counterparts, which face high production costs and low capacity utilization [1][10]. - **Impact of Anti-Overexpansion Policies**: The anti-overexpansion policies are expected to limit capital expansion but will enhance free cash flow and dividend-paying capacity, improving the investment value of leading companies [1][13][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The chromium salt industry is expected to see strong demand growth due to increased orders from gas turbines and military applications, while supply is constrained by environmental regulations [2][42]. - The coal chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to rising global energy prices and improved demand, despite being at historical low price levels [15][18]. - The refrigerant market is projected to grow due to rising demand and supply constraints, particularly for R32 and automotive refrigerants [44]. - **Future Trends**: The report anticipates a significant upward trend for leading companies in the chemical sector, driven by improved profitability and valuation as the industry undergoes capacity clearing [14][41]. Conclusion - The Chinese chemical industry is poised for a recovery phase, with strong cash flow generation and potential for high dividend yields, particularly for leading firms. The anti-overexpansion policies, while restrictive, may ultimately enhance the industry's long-term health and investment attractiveness [1][13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand of industrial silicon has deepened. The resumption of production in the southwest and northern production areas has increased the weekly output to 95,500 tons, and the monthly output is expected to reach 420,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon is optimistically estimated at 145,000 tons, organic silicon at 120,000 tons, and export and alloy demand at 110,000 tons, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 45,000 tons. There is no inventory - reduction drive in the market. Despite fewer industrial policies for industrial silicon compared to polysilicon, the anti - involution policy has been set. The situation of "weak reality + strong policy expectation" makes funds more sensitive to policy drivers. The sharp rise in raw material prices drives the intraday price up, but the short - term futures price runs cautiously and strongly under the premium [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.86%. The trading volume was 498,210 lots, and the open interest was 290,948 lots, with a net increase of 12,960 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The price of 553 - grade industrial silicon in Sichuan was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market News - On September 15th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,905 lots, a net decrease of 93 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - The relevant departments are actively promoting industry self - regulation and capacity governance in key industries. In August, the year - on - year decline in ex - factory prices of industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics narrowed, which is beneficial for prices to return to a reasonable range [5]. - The prices of main products in the industrial chain remained stable. The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 52,000 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC market price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the average market price of organic silicon DMC was 10,730 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the organic silicon industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and a favorable supply-demand balance [4][5]. Core Insights - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with a significant shift in demand from traditional sectors like real estate to emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which are expected to drive double-digit growth in domestic consumption [4][5][55]. - Domestic consumption of organic silicon DMC is projected to reach 1.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a further increase to 1 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking a 24% growth [4][6][31]. - The report highlights that while the construction sector's contribution to organic silicon demand is declining, the demand from new energy vehicles and photovoltaics remains robust, supporting overall industry growth [4][5][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon: Superior Material for National Economy - Organic silicon materials are characterized by their unique Si-C bonds and are widely used across various sectors, including construction, electronics, and automotive [4][14][17]. 2. Resonance of Domestic and Foreign Demand Boosts Prosperity, New Energy Catalyzes Incremental Demand 2.1 Sustained High Demand and Upgrading Consumption Structure - China's organic silicon consumption accounts for approximately 60% of global demand, with significant growth potential in emerging markets [4][31][60]. 2.2 Construction Impact Slowing, New Energy Drives Incremental Domestic Demand - The construction sector's share of organic silicon demand has decreased from 31% in 2022 to 25% in 2024, while sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics are experiencing rapid growth [4][31][36]. 2.3 Strong Overseas Demand Boosts Exports, China Expected to Continue Capturing Overseas Market Share - Domestic exports of polysiloxane reached 545,600 tons in 2024, a 34% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth driven by cost advantages [4][60][61]. 3. Reduction of Overseas Capacity, Domestic Capacity Peaks, Deep Processing Highlights Bottom Value 3.1 Overseas Capacity Expected to Exit - The report notes that overseas organic silicon DMC capacity is expected to decline due to cost and environmental factors, creating opportunities for domestic producers [4][5][60]. 3.2 Domestic Expansion Cycle Concludes - Domestic organic silicon DMC capacity is projected to reach 3.44 million tons by the end of 2024, nearly doubling since 2020, with the expansion cycle now concluded [4][5][60]. 3.3 Intermediate Cost Curve Flat, Industry Widespread Losses - The report indicates that while some companies may enhance profitability through downstream processing, the overall sector has faced prolonged losses, highlighting a strong demand for profitability recovery [4][5][60]. 4. Supply-Demand Inflection Point Evident, Historical Elasticity Significant - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is improving, with domestic operating rates expected to rise from 67% in 2024 to 76% and 83% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][5][60]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated companies with scale advantages and strong downstream processing capabilities, such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Dongyue Silicone Materials, and Xingsheng Group [4][5][60].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on Sichuan Road and Bridge as a leading player in Southwest infrastructure, highlighting its current combination of regional infrastructure growth and dividend yield [3][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, particularly for companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is positioned as a leader in localized production and sales [4][16]. - The report notes a price increase in RTF copper foil, indicating a high demand for HVLP products, and suggests continued investment in copper foil and electronic cloth sectors [5][17]. - The report tracks the performance of various materials, indicating a downward trend in cement prices and a mixed outlook for glass and fiberglass markets [6][18][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its strong position in Southwest infrastructure, with a reported investment of 134.9 billion yuan in transportation construction, ranking second nationally and showing a 3.5% increase year-on-year [3][15]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 340 yuan per ton, down 43 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.7% [6][18]. - Glass prices increased to 1295.28 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.58% rise, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.12% [6][18]. - The report warns of potential price declines in steel due to market fundamentals [6][18]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions the allocation of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with plans for further funding in October [7][19]. Important Changes - Notable acquisitions include Defu Technology's purchase of Circuit Foil Luxembourg for 174 million euros and the listing of Hanhai Group on the A-share market [8][20][21]. Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 3.96% over the week, with specific declines in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [24]. Material Price Changes - Cement prices continued to decline, with a national average of 340 yuan per ton, while glass prices showed a slight increase [32][41]. - Fiberglass prices remained under pressure, with a reported average of 3595.25 yuan per ton [66].