工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 工业硅日报 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

工业硅日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the following key points: 1) Focus on undervalued industry leaders; 2) The impact of "anti-involution" on the supply side of related sub-industries; 3) The increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [2][4] Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 1-7, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 29 saw price decreases, and 29 remained stable. 41% of products had month-on-month average prices rising, while 47% fell, and 12% remained unchanged [11][33] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $60.08 per barrel, a weekly increase of 1.28%, and Brent crude at $63.75 per barrel, up 0.92% [34] - TDI prices increased to an average of 14,356 CNY/ton, up 3.84% week-on-week and 6.89% month-on-month [35] - DMC prices also rose to 13,700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.48% increase week-on-week and a 23.42% increase from the November 12 low [35] Investment Recommendations - As of December 7, 2025, the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.52, at the 75.42 percentile historically, while the P/B ratio is 2.24, at the 57.66 percentile [14] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and new energy materials [14] - Long-term investment themes include: 1) Demand recovery supported by policy, with continuous supply optimization; 2) Rapid development in downstream industries such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials; 3) Structural reforms in supply-side, focusing on high-performing sub-industries like fluorochemicals and agrochemicals [14] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, and others [14] - December's "Golden Stocks" are Wanhua Chemical and Anji Technology [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has weak fundamental drivers, and its balance sheet may be less optimistic than expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the silicone "anti - involution" movement. The short - term price may fluctuate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4][11][16]. - The contradiction between the fundamentals and the policy side of polysilicon is increasing. The spot price of leading enterprises is expected to remain stable, while the low - price supply of small and medium - sized factories may decline slightly. The futures main contract may operate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [3][4][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,960 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 685 yuan/ton to 53,360 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Speculation Boosts Industrial Silicon Price, and Silicon Wafers Lower Quotes Again - **Industrial silicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated widely. Furnace numbers in Xinjiang decreased by 4, in Yunnan by 2, increased by 2 in Inner Mongolia, and by 1 in Gansu. In December, the number of open furnaces in Sichuan is expected to be within 10, and in Yunnan around 12. Social and factory inventories increased. In October, exports were 45,000 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month decrease [11]. - **Organic silicon**: The price increased significantly under the "anti - involution" movement. A new price mechanism and supply - side dynamic regulation mechanism were established. The overall market is in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated. Leading manufacturers' prices remained stable, while low - price ranges showed signs of loosening. Production in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons, and factory inventory reached 271,000 tons as of November 20 [3][13]. - **Silicon wafers**: Prices declined significantly. As of November 20, inventory was 18.72GW. The M10 model has fallen into a cash - loss state [14]. - **Battery cells**: Prices continued to decline. As of November 17, inventory was 10.21GW. Battery cell manufacturers are in a cash - flow loss state [14]. - **Components**: Prices were basically stable. Demand declined, and there are concerns about a significant drop in production in December [15]. 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial silicon**: Pay attention to range - trading opportunities between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4][16]. - **Polysilicon**: Focus on range - trading opportunities for the futures main contract between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Two leading silicon wafer companies lowered quotes due to insufficient orders. - In October 2025, industrial silicon exports were 45,073 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month and 30.78% year - on - year decrease. - Anhui's mechanism electricity prices for 2025 - 2026 were announced, with a total scale of 5.8677 billion kWh, using 65% of the planned mechanism electricity [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Industrial silicon**: Data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory in different regions are presented [19][22][25]. - **Organic silicon**: Information on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production is provided [31][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and weekly production are included [37][38]. - **Silicon wafers**: Information on spot prices, factory inventory, and weekly production is shown [39][41]. - **Battery cells**: Data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory inventory, and monthly production are presented [46][49][50]. - **Components**: Information on spot prices, profit calculations, finished - product inventory, and monthly production is provided [53][56][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical sector is expected to experience a turning point with the establishment of synergies between the silicone and caprolactam industries, leading to an upward trend in market conditions and accelerated de-involution [1] - The report highlights the importance of voluntary emission reductions and carbon cuts, with companies planning to maintain a 70% operating rate and adjust production based on market conditions [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Xin'an Chemical for potential investment opportunities in the silicone sector [1] - In the caprolactam sector, the report recommends monitoring Luxi Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua for their potential to drive profitability recovery [1] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $55-70 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [2][3] - The report notes that the PPI for all industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year [3] - The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0 in October, indicating a slowdown in production activities due to various factors, including pre-holiday demand release and a more complex international environment [3] Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy across four main chains: textile and apparel, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from de-involution policies [1] - Specific recommendations include focusing on nylon and caprolactam with companies like Luxi Chemical, and on fertilizers with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Yuntianhua [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key materials for growth, particularly in semiconductor materials, OLED panel materials, and lithium battery materials [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The synergy between silicone and caprolactam has been established, indicating a potential upturn in the industry, with a shift away from internal competition accelerating the chemical sector's turning point [3]. - The report highlights a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Xin'an Chemical for silicone, and Luxi Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Polyone for caprolactam [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil supply growth is slowing due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with a global economic improvement [3][4]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize in the long term, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export facility construction [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across four chains: textile and apparel, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [3]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Textile and Apparel: Luxi Chemical, Tongkun Co., Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical - Agricultural Chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Wanhu Chemical - Anti-involution sectors: Biyuan Chemical, Xuefeng Technology [3]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor materials, panel materials, and lithium battery materials [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a clearer lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long on dips. Polysilicon is expected to return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week to 9020 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8850 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 830 yuan/ton to 54045 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Organic Silicon "Anti - involution", Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. Southwest China may have further furnace shutdowns during the dry season. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November and a de - stocking of about 1 million tons in December, but "anti - involution" in organic silicon may affect December's de - stocking [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon increased. The industry reached a consensus on production cut and price support. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 73.62%, the weekly output was 48,700 tons (a 1.67% increase), and the inventory was 42,100 tons (a 3.22% decrease). The success of "anti - involution" depends on production cut implementation [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The spot mainly delivered previous orders. Considering the dry season, the production schedule in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 13, the factory inventory was 267,000 tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons). The spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to remain flat in November [13] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of silicon wafers was volatile. After a price cut on Tuesday, several enterprises jointly raised prices on Thursday. The production cut is not obvious, with a production schedule of 57 - 58GW in November. As of November 13, the inventory was 18.42GW (an increase of 0.9GW). The price is expected to fluctuate [14] - **Battery Cell**: The price of battery cells continued to decline. Indian demand shifted, and domestic demand also decreased. As of November 10, the inventory was 5.81GW (an increase of 1.96GW). The production schedule in November is 57.4GW. The price may loosen further [15] - **Component**: The component price was basically stable. Some high - power component quotes increased. The demand declined, and the production schedule in November is expected to be 44.4GW (a decrease of 1GW). There are concerns about a significant decline in December's production schedule [16] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply. It is more cost - effective to go long on dips [3] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is expected to remain stable in November. The futures may return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3.4 Hot News Summaries - **Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices**: Several silicon wafer enterprises jointly raised prices to support "anti - involution" competition. The actual transaction depends on downstream acceptance [18] - **Positive Results in Photovoltaic Industry Self - regulation**: The self - regulation of the photovoltaic industry has achieved positive results. Product prices are gradually stabilizing, and the situation where polysilicon prices are below cost has improved [18] - **Statement on Online False News**: The association is promoting industry self - regulation and "anti - involution" work. Online rumors are false information [19] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [21][24][26][28] - **Organic Silicon**: It includes data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36][40] - **Silicon Wafer**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [41][43][44] - **Battery Cell**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54][55] - **Component**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60][61]