泡泡玛特拉布布吸引了大量粉丝收藏，部分稀有款拉布布甚至溢价数倍，展现出谷子经济强大的变现能力和发展潜力。消费者对文创产品的需求日益增长， 这片蓝海市场吸引着众多企业入局，也被业界称为"大IP逻辑"。 近年来，谷子经济异军突起，谷子消费在年轻人尤其是Z世代中广泛流行，其商业潜力与文化活力逐渐显现。艾媒咨询数据显示，2024年中国"谷子经 济"（二次元IP衍生品经济）市场规模已达1689亿元，预计2029年将突破3000亿元。 联姻国内"超级大IP" 据了解，本次"TT"是创源股份进军IP潮玩文创的首个品牌，TT英文全称为"TIME TRACKER"（时间追踪器），象征着追溯历史、品味当下、畅想未来。 "我是不白吃"这个国内"超级IP"在国内文化领域影响力非凡，全网拥有超7200万粉丝，年播放量超200亿。该IP以喜剧形式巧妙结合美食主题，广泛传播科 学、历史、文化等多元知识。 "我是不白吃，我真是太有文化了"的经典语句已形成这个动漫极具记忆点的传播符号，让观众加深对IP认知的同时，科普知识传播也更加轻松鲜活。"我是 不白吃"不仅与央视新闻推出《百年"食"光机》《春晚到底有多好吃》等系列视频，与最高检联合推出《带 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the collectible toy (潮玩) industry, particularly the strategies for IP (intellectual property) incubation and market success [1][2]. Core Company Insights - The company has rapidly expanded during the economic recovery period at the end of 2022, achieving revenue in the billions [1]. - All IPs are created by the internal design team, with 100% ownership of intellectual property [1][4]. - The company utilizes crowdfunding to validate IP concepts, with S-level IPs raising over 1.5 million [1][4]. - Initial production strategy is based on a "produce to order" model, transitioning to a "sell to produce" model starting in 2025 to better match supply chain needs with market demand [1][5]. Revenue and Sales Channels - Revenue is approximately in the billions, with 50% coming from distribution channels and the remainder from online platforms like Tmall and Douyin [1][8]. - Douyin contributed nearly 100 million in revenue in 2024, with expectations for increased offline sales in 2025, particularly from Miniso [1][9]. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The collectible toy market is influenced by changing consumer trends, with middle-class and high-income consumers seeking affordable emotional value [2]. - The company has a competitive edge with a complete moat, as competitors have not yet built mature capabilities [2]. - The company is expanding internationally, with expectations for overseas markets to contribute at least 10% to revenue by 2025 [2][28]. Product and Marketing Strategies - Continuous growth in collectible IP requires a focus on product and marketing, including product line segmentation and limited edition collaborations to enhance artistic value [1][11]. - The company plans to increase the proportion of plush products in its offerings while maintaining a strong focus on blind box figures [24]. IP Lifecycle and Investment Concerns - Investors express concerns about the lifecycle of collectible IPs, but successful cases like Mega and Demo demonstrate the potential for long-term viability [10]. - The lifecycle of major IPs in the collectible toy industry is typically around four to five years, with potential for explosive growth after initial stagnation [16][17]. Future Trends and Strategies - The collectible toy market in China is evolving from a single dominant player to a more competitive landscape with several strong companies emerging [27]. - The company is considering opening brand concept stores to enhance brand and user asset accumulation, rather than focusing solely on sales [31]. - Future product development will focus on diversifying offerings to meet broader consumer demands while maintaining a core fan base [26]. Conclusion - The company is strategically positioned to leverage its unique IP incubation model, robust revenue channels, and evolving market dynamics to capitalize on growth opportunities in the collectible toy industry.

Group 1: Overview - The report indicates a weak recovery in domestic demand for the home furnishing sector, while the pan-entertainment toy industry is experiencing upward momentum driven by emotional consumption [15][39]. Group 2: Home Furnishing Industry - Domestic demand for home furnishings is under pressure, with a projected decline of 3.9% in building materials and home sales for 2024, but a gradual improvement is expected in Q4 2024 due to government subsidies [4][16]. - The introduction of a doubling of the old-for-new subsidy to 300 billion yuan in 2025 is anticipated to stimulate demand and help leading companies increase market share [4][28]. - Key companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Gujia Home and Sophia, are expected to show resilience in performance due to high dividend yields and strong brand advantages, with PE ratios generally below 15 [4][30][32]. - Export performance for home furnishing companies has been improving since November 2023, driven by overseas retailers replenishing inventory, although uncertainties remain due to changing tariff policies [4][33]. Group 3: Pan-Entertainment Toy Industry - The pan-entertainment toy industry in China is rapidly expanding, with GMV projected to grow from 48.8 billion yuan in 2019 to 101.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.8% [5][51]. - The industry is categorized into card games and IP toys, with card games holding a 70% market share, while the IP toy market is more fragmented [5][54]. - Key players such as Pop Mart and Blokus are experiencing significant growth, with Pop Mart's revenue expected to increase substantially due to its diverse IP matrix and strong online and offline channels [5][61][64]. - The report highlights the importance of emotional consumption and the rise of local designers as key drivers for the future development of the pan-entertainment toy industry [5][51].

Group 1 - The topic of "dangerous trendy toys" has recently gained significant attention, highlighting health risks associated with various popular toys such as squishy toys, fidget spinners, and blind box figurines [1] - The existing toy safety standards are outdated, only specifying limits for 8 migratory elements and 6 plasticizers, while lacking clear limits for formaldehyde and volatile organic compounds, leading to compliance issues where toys may be technically compliant but not safe [1] - The rise of science-themed toys, which lack specific standards, allows many small manufacturers to evade regulations by marketing their products under different categories, resulting in unsafe and unhealthy toys flooding the market [1] Group 2 - Standards are crucial for product quality and regulatory enforcement, serving as a common language across the industry that promotes collaboration and quality improvement [2] - There is an urgent need for timely development of technical standards for new types of toys, including mandatory product certifications and clear production qualifications to prevent the emergence of "toxic toys" [2] - Implementing a blacklist system and a comprehensive reporting mechanism for dangerous toys can enhance regulatory effectiveness and encourage manufacturers to prioritize quality and safety standards [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of a consumer-themed fund is significantly influenced by its Hong Kong stock positions, with the "new consumption trio" in Hong Kong becoming prominent names in the capital market despite mixed signals from domestic consumption data [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer sector is experiencing a bifurcation, with the central government introducing measures to boost consumption, yet statistical data shows no significant improvement [3]. - The market has seen remarkable performances from companies like Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Ice City, with the latter's stock price doubling shortly after its IPO [3]. - In contrast, Pop Mart, despite facing a significant market downturn, has recently regained its status as a market leader with a market cap exceeding 300 billion HKD [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The contrasting actions of companies, such as Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and the significant sell-offs by its founders, illustrate that buybacks and sell-offs do not always correlate with market sentiment [4]. - The sentiment in the secondary market is heavily influenced by stock price movements, where only declines are viewed negatively, while increases are seen as positive regardless of corporate actions [4][5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Pop Mart's IPO in 2020 was marked by extreme enthusiasm, with a subscription rate exceeding 356 times and an opening price that doubled from its issue price [7]. - However, the stock's performance has been volatile, with significant declines following its initial surge, leading to a prolonged period of underperformance in the secondary market [8][10]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The pandemic and subsequent restrictions have severely impacted Pop Mart's primary sales channels, leading to a drastic reduction in foot traffic [10]. - The proliferation of blind box products has diluted consumer interest, with competitors like Miniso and Luckin Coffee entering the market with lower-cost alternatives [10]. - Regulatory scrutiny has increased, with policies introduced to limit blind box pricing and lottery probabilities, further complicating the market landscape [10]. Group 5: Fund Management Strategies - Prominent fund managers have faced challenges in navigating the market, with some, like Zhang Kun, experiencing significant losses after heavily investing in Pop Mart during its downturn [11][12]. - Despite the adverse market conditions, some fund managers maintained their positions, only to exit as the stock began to recover, reflecting a cautious approach to volatile investments [14][16]. Group 6: Future Outlook - As of 2024, the number of funds heavily invested in Pop Mart has increased, with a notable shift in sentiment as managers who previously focused on Kweichow Moutai now pivot towards Pop Mart [18][24]. - The company's 2023 performance and optimistic 2024 guidance, projecting over 30% revenue growth, have rekindled investor interest, particularly in its overseas expansion efforts [22][24]. - The market's perception of Pop Mart's growth potential remains cautious, with some fund managers opting to reduce their holdings despite the company's recovery [23].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of a consumer-themed fund is significantly influenced by its Hong Kong stock positions, with the "new consumption trio" in Hong Kong shining in the capital market despite mixed signals from the broader economy [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The central government has officially introduced the "Consumption Boost Action Plan," indicating a focus on domestic consumption as a key economic driver [1] - Despite a lack of significant improvement in statistical data, companies like Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Ice City have seen remarkable market performances, with the former surpassing Chow Tai Fook in market capitalization and the latter doubling its stock price shortly after listing [1] - Pop Mart, often seen as the elder sister among the trio, has experienced a significant market cap recovery, recently exceeding 300 billion HKD after a period of substantial decline [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment - The market sentiment towards buybacks and sell-offs is nuanced; in a rising market, actions like buybacks are viewed positively, while in a declining market, the opposite is true [2] - Investors who bought into declining stocks may have a different emotional experience compared to those benefiting from rising prices [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Pop Mart, known as the "first blind box stock," had a spectacular IPO in 2020, with a subscription rate exceeding 356 times and an opening price that doubled its issue price [5] - However, after being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in March 2021, Pop Mart's stock price began a prolonged decline as the market entered a bearish phase [6] - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, noted the extreme optimism and pessimism of market investors, reflecting the emotional volatility in the stock market [7] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The blind box industry has faced challenges, including reduced foot traffic due to pandemic measures and increased competition from brands like Miniso and Luckin Coffee, which have diluted consumer interest [9] - In 2022, Pop Mart's rapid growth stalled, leading to a significant drop in profits and stock price, coinciding with a challenging market environment for its major investors [10] Group 5: Fund Manager Strategies - Notable fund managers like Zhang Kun and Sun Wei have had varying experiences with Pop Mart, with Zhang exiting his position after a brief hold, while Sun remained invested through the downturn [12][13] - By 2024, the number of funds heavily invested in Pop Mart increased, with some fund managers transitioning from long-held positions in Kweichow Moutai to Pop Mart, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [17] Group 6: Future Outlook - Pop Mart's 2023 performance showed promising growth, with a revenue guidance for 2024 indicating over 30% growth, particularly in overseas markets [21] - The company's expansion into international markets, especially in South Korea, has begun to yield results, positioning overseas business as a key growth driver [21] - Despite the positive outlook, the volatility associated with consumer sentiment and market trends remains a concern for investors [22]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported impressive performance with a revenue of 13.038 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.92%, and a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan, up 188.8% [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 165-170%, with domestic revenue increasing by 95-100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475-480% [10]. - The company is undergoing a global organizational restructuring to enhance operational efficiency and support its globalization strategy [10][11]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 192.80, with a total market capitalization of HKD 2,589.19 billion [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.343 billion shares and a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.80% [3]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong growth in its IP portfolio, with 13 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in revenue by the end of 2024, including the new IP "THE MONSTERS" which generated 3.04 billion yuan, a 726.6% increase year-on-year [6]. - The plush toy category became a top-selling product, achieving sales of 2.83 billion yuan in 2024, with its sales proportion rising from 3.2% to 21.7% [6]. - The company’s revenue from overseas markets reached 5.07 billion yuan in 2024, a 375.2% increase, with Southeast Asia becoming its second-largest market [7][9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open 100 new stores overseas in 2025, aiming for overseas revenue to exceed 50% of total revenue, with North America expected to match the sales volume of the Chinese market in 2020 [11][12]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 78%, 51%, and 39% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 80%, 59%, and 46% respectively [13].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the stock, marking its first coverage [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported impressive performance with a revenue of 13.038 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.92%, and a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan, up 188.8% [4][15]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 165-170%, with domestic revenue increasing by 95%-100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475%-480% [10]. - The company is undergoing a global organizational restructuring to enhance operational efficiency and focus on regional strategies [10][11]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 192.80, with a total market capitalization of HKD 258.919 billion [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.80% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 76.04 [3]. Financial Performance - The company has 13.43 billion shares outstanding, with the largest shareholder being GWF Holding Limited [3]. - The company has seen significant growth in its IP portfolio, with 13 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in revenue by the end of 2024 [6]. - The plush toy category became a major revenue driver, achieving sales of 2.83 billion yuan in 2024, up from 3.2% to 21.7% of total sales [6]. International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, with revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas reaching 5.07 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 375.2% [7]. - Southeast Asia has emerged as the second-largest market after mainland China, with revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, up 619% [7][9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to open 100 new stores overseas in 2025, aiming for overseas revenue to exceed 50% of total revenue [11]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected revenue growth rates of 78%, 51%, and 39% for 2025-2027 [13].