| 看涨期权 | | | 看跌期权 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | | 锰硅 | 133.33% | PVC | 41.32% | | 硅铁 | 37.72% | 多晶硅 | 39.68% | | 碳酸锂 | 25.94% | 棕榈油 | 37.41% | | 白糖 | 24.50% | 短纤 | 36.78% | | 铂 | 17.20% | 塑料 | 33.14% | | 液化石油气 | 15.95% | 合成橡胶 | 30.77% | | 燃料油 | 6.89% | 纯苯 | 28.69% | | 铸造铝合金 | 6.09% | 甲醇 | 28.40% | | 豆粕 | 4.12% | 工业硅 | 26.64% | | 铅 | 4.07% | 氧化铝 | 26.41% | 备注：上述涨跌幅统一以各品种主力合约的平值期权为标的，并以其 收盘价作为计算基准。 表 2：期权持仓 商品期权日报(2026 年 02 月 27 日) 表 1：期权行情 | 看涨期权 | | | 看跌期权 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The report presents the trading volume and open interest data of the commodity options market, including the overall market and different sectors such as agriculture, energy and chemicals, black metals, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals and new energy. The overall trading volume of the market this week was 6,628,465.8, a decrease of 0.95% from last week, and the open interest was 7,083,253, a decrease of 0.24% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.48%, while the trading volume of other sectors decreased to varying degrees [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the quantitative data of commodity options, including the at - the - money volatility, 60 - day quantile, skew, and 60 - day skew quantile of various options. For example, the at - the - money volatility of corn options is 8.65%, and the 60 - day quantile is 13.33% [15]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.61 Various Option Data - For each type of option (such as corn options, soybean meal options, etc.), the report details the closing price, trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and skew of the main and secondary contracts. For example, for corn options, the total trading volume of the main contract this week was 145,658, an increase of 48,066 from last week, and the volume PCR was 0.4574, a decrease of 0.0707 from last week [17].

Group 1: Option Market Quotes - The daily price changes of call options for various commodities are as follows: asphalt 88.61%, corn starch 59.32%, liquefied petroleum gas 34.88%, p - xylene 21.31%, alumina 15.97%, corn 15.71%, fuel oil 14.54%, methanol 11.73%, short - fiber 9.96%, PTA 9.63% [1] - The daily price changes of put options for various commodities are as follows: caustic soda 90.67%, log 79.07%, palladium 47.03%, platinum 35.39%, tin 33.04%, nickel 31.24%, silver 27.03%, copper 22.04%, rebar 19.59%, coking coal 18.08% [1] Group 2: Option Positions - The daily changes in call option positions for various commodities are as follows: methanol 42,604, caustic soda 19,694, glass 17,313, soda ash 15,825, silver 13,395, asphalt 6,713, rapeseed meal 5,885, coking coal 5,587, soybean meal 4,790, ethylene glycol 3,320 [2] - The daily changes in put option positions for various commodities are as follows: PTA 8,361, methanol 6,189, alumina 4,191, cotton 3,781, caustic soda 2,834, styrene 2,239, rebar 1,355, silicomanganese 1,351, rapeseed meal 1,264, crude oil 1,103 [2] Group 3: Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - High - position PCR varieties: apple (1.6057), offset - printing paper (1.192), propylene (1.1382), bottle chips (1.0699), short - fiber (1.0328), cast aluminum alloy (1.0007), synthetic rubber (0.9576), iron ore (0.9511), lithium carbonate (0.9433), soybean No. 2 (0.8643) [5] - Low - position PCR varieties: caustic soda (0.2383), alumina (0.2431), live pigs (0.2615), soda ash (0.2619), red dates (0.2978), ethylene glycol (0.3744), methanol (0.3936), coking coal (0.3943), lead (0.3956), log (0.4008) [5] Group 4: Option Trading Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - High - trading - volume PCR varieties: propylene (1.4211), silver (1.3878), nickel (1.2476), iron ore (1.1227), industrial silicon (1.0666), polysilicon (1.011), copper (0.9758), lithium carbonate (0.9645), zinc (0.9487), aluminum (0.9379) [6] - Low - trading - volume PCR varieties: alumina (0.1701), ethylene glycol (0.1962), red dates (0.2064), coking coal (0.2945), corn (0.3587), ferrosilicon (0.364), corn starch (0.3642), methanol (0.3754), silicomanganese (0.389), asphalt (0.4081) [6] Group 5: Daily Selections - Call options: alumina (ao2605C2900, trend degree 45, put - call ratio 0.24, remaining days 77), crude oil (sc2604C470, trend degree 37, put - call ratio 0.54, remaining days 35), sugar (SR605C5300, trend degree 35, put - call ratio 0.49, remaining days 66), asphalt (bu2604C3550, trend degree 23, put - call ratio 0.49, remaining days 47), apple (AP605C9900, trend degree 23, put - call ratio 1.61, remaining days 49), silicomanganese (SM605C5900, trend degree 21, put - call ratio 0.47, remaining days 66), glass (FG605C1140, trend degree 19, put - call ratio 0.41, remaining days 66), PVC (v2605 - C - 5100, trend degree 19, put - call ratio 0.46, remaining days 70) [7] - Put options: ethylene glycol (eg2605 - P - 3550, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.37, remaining days 70), lead (pb2604P16000, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.4, remaining days 47), iron ore (i2605 - P - 740, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.95, remaining days 70), rebar (rb2605P3050, trend degree - 55, put - call ratio 0.44, remaining days 77), pulp (sp2605P4950, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.86, remaining days 77), industrial silicon (si2605 - P - 8300, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.49, remaining days 61), silver (ag2604P18500, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.83, remaining days 47), caustic soda (SH605P2040, trend degree - 53, put - call ratio 0.24, remaining days 66) [7] Group 6: Near - Expiry Options - Call options: cotton (CF603C14800, remaining days 3, option closing price 42.0, break - even point 14845.0, break - even increase 1.26%, option doubling point 14890.0, doubling increase 1.57%), glass (FG603C1000, remaining days 3, option closing price 11.5, break - even point 1012.5, break - even increase 1.76%, option doubling point 1025.0, doubling increase 3.02%), etc. [8] - Put options: cotton (CF603P14600, remaining days 3, option closing price 67.0, break - even point 14530.0, break - even decrease - 0.89%, option doubling point 14460.0, doubling decrease - 1.36%), glass (FG603P990, remaining days 3, option closing price 9.5, break - even point 979.5, break - even decrease - 1.56%, option doubling point 969.0, doubling decrease - 2.61%), etc. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents a daily analysis of commodity options on February 3, 2026, including option quotes, positions, position put - call ratios (PCR), trading volume PCR, daily selections, and expiring options [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Quotes - **Call Options**: The daily price changes of call options for various commodities are as follows: caustic soda 25.56%, soybean No.1 10.88%, glass 5.93%, alumina 4.35%, log 4.35%, urea 2.56%, soda ash 0.83%, live pigs -0.89%, industrial silicon -1.20%, and coking coal -6.82% [1]. - **Put Options**: The daily price changes of put options for various commodities are as follows: aluminum 226.06%, gold 167.01%, crude oil 163.21%, nickel 160.80%, zinc 124.65%, asphalt 115.38%, copper 111.09%, tin 100.80%, short - fiber 86.27%, and propylene 81.94% [1]. Option Positions - **Call Options**: The daily changes in call option positions for various commodities are as follows: silver 17,592, PVC 15,946, lithium carbonate 15,190, gold 9,214, crude oil 8,620, cotton 7,875, rebar 6,476, nickel 4,499, soybean oil 4,492, and aluminum 4,239 [2]. - **Put Options**: The daily changes in put option positions for various commodities are as follows: rebar 6,362, iron ore 6,048, cotton 4,914, PVC 3,827, ethylene glycol 1,935, industrial silicon 1,836, p - xylene 1,662, pulp 1,435, soybean No.1 973, and caustic soda 908 [2]. Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High - PCR Varieties**: Apple (1.5398), propylene (1.2883), silver (1.1913), offset printing paper (1.1046), bottle chips (1.0715), synthetic rubber (1.0563), short - fiber (1.0469), tin (1.0416), iron ore (0.9809), and soybean No.2 (0.9541) [5]. - **Low - PCR Varieties**: Alumina (0.2124), live pigs (0.25), soda ash (0.2662), red dates (0.2997), caustic soda (0.3143), lead (0.36), ethylene glycol (0.36), PVC (0.3737), glass (0.3919), and log (0.402) [5]. Option Trading Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High - PCR Varieties**: Apple (1.9086), silver (1.7914), polysilicon (1.5875), short - fiber (1.2317), tin (1.1859), cast aluminum alloy (1.1792), asphalt (1.1556), rapeseed oil (1.0876), zinc (1.0869), and platinum (1.074) [6]. - **Low - PCR Varieties**: Live pigs (0.1636), red dates (0.2312), alumina (0.2584), PVC (0.259), coking coal (0.2987), natural rubber (0.3238), manganese silicon (0.327), caustic soda (0.3361), pure benzene (0.3709), and log (0.3833) [6]. Daily Selections - **Call Options**: Recommended call options include PVC, caustic soda, soybean No.1, sugar, alumina, red dates, polypropylene, and soda ash, with corresponding trend degrees, put - call ratios, and remaining days [7]. - **Put Options**: Recommended put options include pulp, lead, CSI 300, polysilicon, live pigs, eggs, lithium carbonate, and nickel, with corresponding trend degrees, put - call ratios, and remaining days [7]. Expiring Options - **Call Option**: The expiring call option for crude oil (sc2603C475) has a remaining day of 1, an option closing price of 1.45, a underlying settlement price of 472.7, a break - even underlying price of 496.45 (a 5.02% increase), and an option doubling underlying price of 517.9 (a 9.56% increase) [8]. - **Put Option**: The expiring put option for crude oil (sc2603P470) has a remaining day of 1, an option closing price of 25.4, a underlying settlement price of 472.7, a break - even underlying price of 424.6 (a - 10.18% decrease), and an option doubling underlying price of 379.2 (a - 19.78% decrease) [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in silver and gold futures prices, primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors and liquidity disturbances, rather than domestic fundamentals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 2, 2026, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened and quickly fell by 20%, hitting the limit down [3]. - Other futures contracts, including copper, crude oil, and nickel, also experienced substantial declines [3]. - The London spot gold price peaked at $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29, 2026, before dropping to around $4,600 by February 2, 2026 [4]. - Similarly, the London spot silver price fell from a high of $121.647 per ounce on January 29, 2026, to approximately $80 by February 2, 2026 [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Responses - The SHFE issued a risk warning early in the market's volatility and increased the price fluctuation limits and margin requirements to mitigate external shocks [5]. - The exchange has been actively monitoring the market and has implemented various risk management measures to ensure orderly market operations [5]. - On February 2, 2026, the SHFE imposed restrictions on certain clients for exceeding trading limits, in accordance with its regulations [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the extreme volatility in precious metals to a rapid release of accumulated risks, following speculative trading based on long-term trends like "de-dollarization" [4]. - The leverage level for silver futures has decreased from 7-8 times to around 4-5 times due to the exchange's margin adjustments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors, particularly the impact of the U.S. financial market turmoil and changes in Federal Reserve leadership expectations, rather than domestic fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 2, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) opened and quickly fell by 20%, hitting the daily limit down after a previous day of limit down trading [1]. - Other futures contracts, including copper, crude oil, and nickel, also experienced significant declines [1]. - The London spot gold price peaked at $5,598.75 per ounce on January 29 but dropped to around $4,600 by February 2, while silver fell from a high of $121.647 to approximately $80 per ounce in the same period [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Responses - The SHFE issued a notice urging market participants to enhance risk management and maintain compliance to ensure market stability amid increased volatility [1]. - The exchange has implemented measures such as increasing margin requirements and expanding the price fluctuation limits for certain contracts to mitigate external shocks [2]. - Specific clients were subjected to trading restrictions due to exceeding trading volume limits, indicating a proactive approach to managing abnormal trading behaviors [4]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that the extreme volatility in precious metals is a result of rapid risk release from prior concentrated trading based on long-term market expectations [1]. - The leverage in silver futures has decreased from 7-8 times to around 4-5 times, reflecting the impact of increased margin levels [3]. - Continuous monitoring and risk prevention measures by the SHFE are aimed at guiding market participants towards rational investment behaviors [2].

1. Market Overview - The total trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8,927,530.8, up 0.4% from last week, and the total open interest was 9,142,747, up 0.02% [5]. - The trading volume of agricultural products options was 1,480,074.0, up 0.58%, and the open interest was 3,149,035, up 0.04% [5]. - The trading volume of energy and chemical options was 4,184,971.8, up 0.89%, and the open interest was 3,674,765, up 0.15% [5]. - The trading volume of black options was 340,558.0, down 0.65%, and the open interest was 738,944, up 0.12% [5]. - The trading volume of precious metal options was 812,581.6, down 0.97%, and the open interest was 334,994, down 0.37% [5]. - The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy options was 2,109,345.4, up 0.42%, and the open interest was 1,245,009, down 0.21% [5]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the implied volatility, 60 - day quantile, skew, and 60 - day skew quantile of the at - the - money options for various commodities such as corn, soybean meal, and methanol [15]. 2.2 - 2.61 Specific Commodity Options - For each of the 61 types of commodity options (e.g., corn options, soybean meal options), the report details the closing price, price change, remaining trading days of the main and secondary contracts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, 10 - day historical volatility (HV - 10), 20 - day historical volatility (HV - 20), and skew. For example, in corn options, the main contract's closing price was 2271, down 29, with 14 remaining trading days [16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended as they tend to move upwards [2]. - For the black metals sector, which experiences significant fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, as they rebound and rise, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper futures (CU2602) is 103,390, down 520 (- 0.50%) with a trading volume of 16.55 million lots and an open interest of 15.95 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: It shows the volume and open - interest put - call ratios (PCR) of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.40, with a change of - 0.05, and the open - interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of 0.02 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are analyzed. The pressure point of copper is 110,000 and the support point is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility data of various metal options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, etc. The at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 33.62% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy; spot long - hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Lithium Carbonate**: Similar strategies are provided, mainly including directional strategies (such as bull spread combination strategies for some), volatility strategies (such as short - volatility strategies or selling call + put option combination strategies), and spot hedging strategies [10][11][12]. - **Precious Metals (Silver)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy with a bullish bias; spot hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Black Metals**: - **Rebar**: Volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy with a bearish bias; spot long - covered strategy - hold a spot long position + sell call options [14]. - **Iron Ore, Ferroalloys, Industrial Silicon, Glass**: Similar strategies are given, covering directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies [14][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they tend to move upwards [2]. - For the black - series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - scale fluctuations [2]. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents data on the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2602) is 102,220, with a price increase of 1,940 and a trading volume of 30.38 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR**: The report provides the volume - to - open - interest PCR data for different metal options, which helps describe the strength and potential turning points of the underlying asset's market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.58, with a change of 0.05 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of each option's underlying asset are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of copper is 110,000, and the support point is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: It shows the implied volatility data of various metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 31.57% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Metal - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies are proposed. For example, a bull spread combination strategy can be constructed for directional trading, and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy for volatility trading [8]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, and Lithium Carbonate**: Similar to copper, strategies for each metal are provided according to their fundamentals, market trends, and option factors [10][11][12]. - **Precious Metals** - **Silver**: Considering its fundamentals and market performance, a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [13]. - **Black - Series** - **Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferroalloys, Industrial Silicon, and Glass**: Strategies for each product in the black - series are given, including directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies, based on their supply - demand situations and market trends [14][15][16].

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market is projected to see significant growth in trading volume and value by December 2025, driven by increased hedging demand from real enterprises, new product offerings, and market optimization [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - By December 2025, the national futures market is expected to reach a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts and a trading value of 90.81 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 45.17% and 58.55% respectively [1] - The total trading volume for the year is anticipated to exceed 90 billion contracts, reaching 90.74 billion contracts, with a cumulative trading value of 766.25 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% [1] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The growth in the futures market is attributed to three main drivers: the upgrade of hedging from an optional strategy to a strategic necessity for enterprises amid international economic fluctuations, the introduction of new products and innovative service models aligned with industry needs, and an optimized market ecosystem attracting long-term institutional investments [1][2] - The global macroeconomic uncertainty has heightened the hedging demand from real enterprises, while the continuous improvement of the futures market has solidified its growth foundation [2] Group 3: Product Development - In 2025, 18 new futures and options products were introduced, covering critical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and new energy metals, thereby enriching the product system and effectively meeting diverse market demands [2] - The trading volume of options has seen significant year-on-year increases, with the trading volume of tin options rising by 2534.43%, nickel options by 1174.35%, and alumina options by 511.93%, with over 20 options products experiencing growth exceeding 100% [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The characteristics of options tools are highly compatible with current market risk features, and the increasing professionalism of traders, including more industrial clients and institutional investors, has led to a rise in the use of risk management tools [3] - The continuous improvement of market infrastructure, such as the maturation of the market maker system and the diversification of product offerings, has supported market growth [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - Industry experts maintain an optimistic outlook for the futures market in 2026, anticipating a steady expansion of capital volume and further diversification of products to better meet the risk management needs of industrial clients [3] - As various clients engage more deeply in futures trading, futures companies are expected to enhance their focus on research capabilities, while advancements in technology and AI will significantly improve research efficiency [3]