Report Overview - The report is titled "40 Key Questions in the Oil, Gas, and Shipping Markets under the Strait Blockade" and is published by the Energy and Chemicals Group of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute on April 1, 2025 [1] 1. Crude Oil: Supply Gap and Price Projection under Strait Blockade 1.1 Supply Loss - The total pre - blockade daily export of various oil products through the Strait of Hormuz was about 20 million barrels, with crude oil accounting for about 15 million barrels. The direct loss of crude oil exports due to the blockade was 14.5 million barrels per day [7] - Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fully utilized their pipeline and port diversion capabilities, there was still a potential crude oil export gap of about 10.5 million barrels per day [8] 1.2 Supply Increase from Strategic Reserves and Sanction Relief - The IEA's 32 member countries released 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil products. The actual supply increase from the release of reserves was estimated to be up to 1.2 million barrels per day [11] - The combined floating storage of Russian and Iranian crude oil could provide a supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day within a month [11] 1.3 Production Shutdown - By the fourth week of the US - Iran conflict, the estimated reduction in Middle - Eastern crude oil production was about 10 million barrels per day, resulting in an 8 - million - barrel - per - day decline in March [12] 1.4 Refining Capacity Decline - As of the end of March, the global refining capacity decline was about 4.6 million barrels per day. If the blockade continued throughout April, the loss could exceed 7 million barrels per day [14] 1.5 Price Projection - Based on the Brent average price of $71 per barrel in February 2026, the report estimated the price increase under different blockade durations. For example, if the blockade lasted for 4 weeks, the Brent price could reach $78 (conservative), $82 (neutral), and $85 (optimistic) [17] 1.6 Arbitrage and Pricing - The core of the price difference between SC and international crude oil is freight, followed by product quality and regional price premiums. After the blockade, Brent and SC have decoupled from traditional Middle - Eastern Dubai/Oman medium - sour crude [18] - In the short - term, the monthly spread of crude oil was at a high level. The report recommended considering long positions in distant - month contracts such as 06, 07, and 08 [21] 1.7 Short - Selling Strategy - The report suggested short - selling Brent dec26 or the Brent main contract and holding the position for 6 - 12 months until the end of the war [22] 2. Gasoline and Diesel: Supply Evolution in the East and West under Geopolitical Impact 2.1 Gasoline Supply in Asia - Pacific before the Conflict - Asia - Pacific was the main area for global refining capacity growth. The increase in refining capacity and the change in raw material structure led to a relatively loose gasoline supply in the region [27] 2.2 Impact on Gasoline Production and Blending in Asia - Pacific after the Conflict - The interruption of Middle - Eastern crude oil exports led to a decline in refinery operations in China and potentially South Korea, resulting in a shortage of basic gasoline components [31] - The rise in crude oil and naphtha prices and export difficulties increased the cost of blending components, pushing up the price of gasoline [31] 2.3 Future Evolution of European Refineries and Gasoline Production - European refineries mainly processed light crude oil from the US and West Africa. The decline in Middle - Eastern crude oil exports might further shift them towards light crude [36] - European gasoline production was expected to bottom out and rebound after April, depending on the refinery processing volume [36] 2.4 Impact of US Production on Western Hemisphere Gasoline Supply and Demand - US refineries were less likely to reduce diesel production due to the high global diesel price and supply shortages in other regions. This might lead to a loss of about 160,000 barrels per day of gasoline production [40] 2.5 Global Diesel Price and Spread Trends - The decline in Middle - Eastern diesel exports led to a shortage of global diesel resources, with a sharp increase in spot and paper prices and a rapid decline in inventory [45] 2.6 Europe as the Focus of the Global Diesel Market - Europe had a weak diesel supply chain, with insufficient domestic production capacity and high external supply dependence, mainly on the Middle East, the US, and India [50] 2.7 US as a Supplier in the Western Hemisphere Diesel Market - The US had a potential diesel production increase of about 480,000 barrels per day, but it might not be able to fill the Middle - Eastern gap during the US gasoline consumption peak [53] 2.8 Asia - Pacific Refining Powers Filling the Middle - Eastern Diesel Gap - China, South Korea, and India were the main diesel suppliers in the Asia - Pacific market. However, China might reduce exports, South Korea's diesel yield might be compressed, and India's exports might have an upper limit [60] 3. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Micro - Market Structure under Geopolitical Issues 3.1 Iran's Position and Trade Flow in the Global Fuel Oil Market - Iran was the second - largest fuel oil exporter in the Middle East, with an annual export volume of about 15 - 18 million tons, mainly high - sulfur fuel oil [66] 3.2 Impact on Production and Export of Other Countries in the Strait - The production and export of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE were affected. Saudi Arabia's exports were threatened, Iraq's export capacity was restricted, and the UAE's transshipment role in Fujairah was limited [72] 3.3 Russia and Latin America Filling the Middle - Eastern Supply Gap - Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil exports had an upward trend, but its production was limited by drone attacks and sanctions. Latin America's exports were mostly directed to the US, and high freight rates restricted its ability to supply the Asia - Pacific [77] 3.4 Asia - Pacific Low - Sulfur Market Gap - The Asia - Pacific low - sulfur market faced a supply shortage, with losses from Kuwait, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, European low - sulfur prices might provide some supply through arbitrage [78][81] 3.5 Factors Determining Domestic Low - Sulfur Production - Domestic low - sulfur production depended on the processing volume of major refineries and the yield of refined oil products. As the peak consumption season for gasoline and diesel approached, the growth of low - sulfur production might be limited [85] 3.6 Potential Expansion of Fuel Oil Demand in Shipping and Power Generation - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East might lead to increased fuel consumption in shipping due to longer voyages and higher speeds. In the power generation sector, high - sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East was expected to increase seasonally [89][93] 4. LNG: Global LNG Balance under Supply Risk 4.1 Duration of Middle - Eastern LNG Supply Interruption - Qatar's supply interruption was expected to last at least until May, and Train 4&6's production reduction would continue until 2027. The supply interruption of Qatar and the UAE for one month would result in a reduction of about 6.9 million tons of LNG supply [103] 4.2 Supply - Side Balance Sheet Changes - In 2026, the global LNG production capacity growth rate was expected to decrease due to Qatar's facility losses. In the long - term, the global production capacity growth trend remained [106] 4.3 Regions with Significant Import Source Impact - Qatar's exports were mainly directed to Asia, especially China, India, South Korea, and Pakistan. South Asian countries were more dependent on Middle - Eastern imports [109] 4.4 Acceptance of High Prices by Asia - Pacific Demand Countries - Demand countries showed differentiation. South Asia and Southeast Asia had high dependence on Qatar's imports and weak infrastructure, while Northeast Asia had low short - term acceptance of high - price spot LNG [113] 4.5 Seasonal Gap after Demand Feedback - The estimated actual demand gap caused by one - month and two - month Middle - Eastern supply interruptions was 5.3 million tons and 10.6 million tons respectively. The demand gap might turn the annual balance sheet from loose to tight in 3 - 6 months [116] 4.6 Impact of European Stockpiling Demand on Annual Supply - Demand Balance - In the short - term, Europe's short - term stockpiling urgency decreased. In winter, the stockpiling demand would increase, and there was a seasonal gap during the peak summer electricity demand [119][121] 5. LPG: LPG Gap Calculation under Supply Risk 5.1 Middle - Eastern LPG Supply Reduction - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in Middle - Eastern LPG exports. The supply gaps of C3 and C4 were about 2 million and 1.8 million tons per month respectively [126] 5.2 US as an Alternative Supplier - The US had limited ability to increase LPG exports in the short - term due to full - capacity operation at ports, equipment breakdowns, and a mismatch in product ratios [132] 5.3 LPG Supply - Demand Gap - The chemical demand for LPG was elastic, while the combustion demand was rigid. Even considering the US's increased exports and Iran's normal exports, there was still a combustion - end gap of 400,000 - 600,000 tons per month [135] 6. Shipping: Main Shipping Market Dynamics under Middle - Eastern Geopolitical Conflicts 6.1 Strait of Hormuz Passage Tracking Indicators - In late March, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was significantly lower than normal, and most of the passages were outbound [138][140] 6.2 Freight Rate Trends - The freight rates of various types of ships, including crude tankers, product tankers, LPG carriers, LNG carriers, and container ships, showed different trends. Generally, the freight rates were affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [146][151][158] 6.3 Ship Deployment Ratios - The east - west deployment ratio of oil tankers in the Suez Canal and the Atlantic - Pacific deployment ratio of bulk carriers changed due to the Middle - Eastern situation [167][169] 6.4 Impact on the Shipping Insurance Market - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led to a significant increase in war - risk insurance rates. Insurance has become a key constraint on shipping [173][174] 6.5 Container Liner Companies' Operational Adjustments - Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping adjusted their routes and introduced multimodal transport solutions to deal with the Middle - Eastern logistics challenges [176][177][178] 6.6 Mandeb Strait Passage Status - In 2025, the passage volume of different ship types through the Mandeb Strait declined compared to 2024. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, the number of crude tankers passing through the Mandeb Strait increased [179]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report elaborates on the demand and practice of energy risk management, emphasizing the importance of hedging in energy trading and providing multiple application cases and participation models [8][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Energy Risk Management Demand - **Policy Support**: In October 2024, the "Opinions on Strengthening Supervision, Preventing Risks, and Promoting the High - quality Development of the Futures Market" proposed to enhance the quality and efficiency of the commodity futures market in serving the real economy, expand the opening - up of the futures market, and support entities in risk management [9][10][11]. - **Necessity of Risk Management**: Energy industries face issues such as floating procurement costs and sales revenues, cost limitations in procurement, inventory, and sales management, contradictions between over - inventory in peak seasons and inventory reduction in off - seasons, and cyclical fluctuations in industry profits. Hedging can transfer price risks and reduce profit volatility [14][16][20]. - **Hedging Principles**: The futures and spot markets have the same supply - demand influencing factors, similar price trends, and price convergence on the delivery date. Holding opposite futures contracts to the spot position can hedge price risks. Basis affects the hedging effect [17][20]. - **Energy Hedging Tools**: Introduces various energy futures contracts, including crude oil (INE SC, Nymex WTI, ICE Brent), gasoline (RBOB, Mogas 92, etc.), fuel oil, and natural gas, detailing their contract specifications such as contract unit, minimum price change, contract months, trading time, and delivery method [24][25][27]. 3.2 Energy Risk Management Practice - **Application Cases** - **Refinery Locking Processing Profit Hedging**: A refinery sold a 3:2:1 crack spread futures contract in September and repurchased it in October, with a futures profit of $5.8 per barrel, plus the spot market crack profit [36][37][38]. - **Refinery Maintenance Hedging**: A refinery bought a 1:1 gasoline crack spread futures contract in January and sold it in March, with a futures profit of $14.2 per barrel, plus the spot market crack profit [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil Trader Hedging**: Customer A hedged the price and exchange rate of 150,000 tons of imported crude oil. After hedging, the inventory loss was about $3.34 million, and the exchange rate hedging profit was about 17.95 million RMB, with a hedging cost of $23,520 [44][45]. - **Participation Modes** - **Direct Participation in Overseas Market Trading**: Use instant messaging tools, emails, and TAS or SMM for trading. Brent crude oil uses cash settlement and TAS trading for smooth position transfer and to avoid risks [48][49][51]. - **Participation through TRS**: Suitable for domestic qualified institutional investors, settled in RMB. The customer pays a margin or option premium at the beginning and obtains the profit and loss of the derivative contract linked to overseas underlying assets at the end. Compared with direct overseas market trading, there are differences in participation currency, exchange rate, access requirements, trading time, and margin call [52][55][57]. 3.3 Related Research Frameworks The report lists research frameworks for various futures products in China, including energy and chemicals, agricultural products, metals, macro - economy, equity index, national bond, exchange rate, and cross - border arbitrage [61][63][65].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant sell-offs due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with major indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 dropping over 2% at one point before slightly recovering [2][3] - European markets also faced severe declines, with indices in Germany and France falling more than 3% [2][3] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surged over 30%, indicating heightened investor anxiety [2] Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that investor concerns are growing regarding the duration of the U.S.-Iran conflict and its potential impact on energy prices, leading to increased risk aversion [3][4] - Joseph Tanious from Northern Trust Asset Management highlighted that despite minimal changes in fundamentals, anxiety over the conflict's duration is affecting market sentiment [3] Oil Price Impact - The conflict has led to a sharp increase in oil prices, with Brent crude futures surpassing $85 per barrel, marking a significant rise of over 9% in a single day [7] - The average price of gasoline in the U.S. rose by 11 cents overnight to approximately $3.11 per gallon, reflecting the close relationship between oil prices and inflation [7][8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has introduced uncertainty into the U.S. economic outlook, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decisions [7] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the potential for one or two rate cuts later this year is now uncertain due to the new geopolitical tensions [7] - Market expectations for a second rate cut this year have dropped to about 50%, down from previous higher expectations [8] Economic Projections - Economists warn that sustained high oil prices could lead to an increase in overall U.S. inflation by approximately 0.7 percentage points if oil prices remain elevated [8] - The potential for rising inflation may make the Federal Reserve more reluctant to lower short-term interest rates, especially in light of ongoing supply chain impacts from previous tariff increases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant sell-off in the US and European markets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict, which has heightened investor anxiety and impacted oil prices and inflation expectations [1][2][6]. Market Performance - US stock indices experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones dropping over 1200 points at one point, and closing down 0.83%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also saw declines of 1.02% and 0.94% respectively [2]. - European markets faced even steeper losses, with Spain's IBEX35 index falling over 4%, and major indices in Germany, France, and Italy dropping more than 3% [2]. - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surged over 30% during the trading session, indicating heightened fear among investors [1]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that while the fundamentals had not changed significantly, investor concerns about the duration of the conflict and its impact on energy prices were growing [2]. - The market's reaction to the conflict was initially calm, but anxiety escalated as fears of prolonged retaliatory actions by Iran emerged [3]. Oil Price Impact - Oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude futures surpassing $85 per barrel for the first time since July 2024, marking a daily increase of over 9% [6]. - The average price of gasoline in the US rose by 11 cents overnight to approximately $3.11 per gallon, highlighting the close relationship between oil prices and inflation [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The escalation of the Iran conflict has introduced uncertainty into the US economic outlook, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy decisions [6]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that while he previously anticipated one or two rate cuts later this year, the current geopolitical tensions necessitate a reassessment of the situation [6]. - Market expectations for a second rate cut this year have dropped to about 50%, down from previous higher expectations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, with investors oscillating between expectations of diplomatic negotiations and potential military actions [4][5][19]. Market Dynamics - On the first trading day after the holiday, SC crude oil opened significantly higher, closing at 493.3 yuan per barrel, a rise of 6.18%. However, international oil prices have shown signs of high volatility, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4][16]. - The latest API data revealed a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, with over 10 million barrels added, contributing to pricing instability [5][17]. - The focus remains on geopolitical developments, particularly the upcoming US-Iran negotiations scheduled for February 26 in Geneva, which could impact oil prices significantly depending on the outcomes [4][19]. Geopolitical Factors - Iran's Foreign Minister expressed a desire to reach a fair agreement with the US quickly, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic solutions while maintaining Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology [19]. - The US has been increasing military presence around Iran, which adds to market uncertainties. Recent reports of logistical issues with the USS Ford aircraft carrier have raised doubts about the US's military resolve [4][5][19]. - The core disagreement in negotiations centers around uranium enrichment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East posing risks to oil supply security [20]. Shipping Costs - The cost of long-term charters for supertankers has surged to over $92,000 per day, the highest level recorded since 1988, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand from shipowners [21].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, which are expected to provide guidance on market sentiment [4][5][15]. Oil Market Dynamics - On Thursday, oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $63.29 per barrel, down $1.85 or 2.84%, and Brent crude oil futures at $67.55 per barrel, down $1.91 or 2.75% [6][17]. - The market is currently facing a complex situation with high volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a recent downturn in financial markets, which has affected investor sentiment [4][15]. - The US labor market is showing signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising by 22,000 to 231,000, exceeding market expectations [8][19]. Geopolitical Factors - The US-Iran nuclear negotiations are set to take place in Muscat, Oman, which has led to cautious market behavior as investors await the outcome [4][15]. - There is a notable lack of trust between the US and Iran, which has contributed to the volatility in oil prices as market assessments change [5][16]. Supply and Demand Trends - Saudi Arabia has reduced the price of its crude oil sold to Asia to the lowest level in years, indicating an oversupply in the global oil market [8][19]. - The price cut of 30 cents per barrel for Arab Light crude reflects a supply surplus, as it aligns with the March benchmark price in the region [19]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investors are advised to prepare for potential volatility in the oil market following the US-Iran negotiations, with the possibility of a rapid price increase if talks fail [5][16]. - Conversely, if negotiations proceed positively, there is a significant chance that oil prices may enter a downward trend dominated by oversupply [5][16].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices surged due to ongoing tensions surrounding US-Iran nuclear negotiations, with market reactions reflecting concerns over geopolitical risks [4][17]. Market Performance - WTI crude oil futures closed at $65.14, up $1.93 (3.05%) - Brent crude oil futures closed at $69.46, up $2.13 (3.16%) - INE crude oil futures closed at 473.50 yuan, up 3.32% [6][19]. EIA Report Insights - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decline of 0.82% - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% - US crude oil production fell by 481,000 barrels to 1.3215 million barrels per day, marking the largest decline since January 19, 2024 [7][20]. Geopolitical Developments - The US is expected to issue a general license for oil production in Venezuela, aiming to boost the country's oil output [21]. - Iranian naval vessels approached a US-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting ongoing regional tensions and the potential for increased shipping risks [22][23]. Russian Oil Market - The price of Russian Urals crude oil has tripled compared to pre-sanction levels from October last year, with India expected to maintain stable imports of 1.1 to 1.3 million barrels per day in the near term [5][18].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the actions of the Trump administration regarding Venezuela and Iran, which have injected political risks into the global oil market [5][6][22]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices fluctuated significantly, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.50 per barrel, up 0.64%, and Brent crude oil futures at $63.87 per barrel, up 0.84% [7][23]. - The market's focus has shifted from Venezuela to the unrest in Iran, with concerns about potential U.S. military intervention causing oil prices to rise again after an initial drop [5][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The Trump administration's interventions in Venezuela have increased U.S. control over key oil resources, creating political uncertainty that affects global oil markets [6][22]. - The situation in Iran remains a significant risk, with the potential for military action by the U.S. contributing to market volatility [5][6][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite geopolitical tensions, the actual supply of oil remains adequate, with the physical market in the Middle East showing weakness [6][22]. - The Brent crude oil month spread has recently rebounded, indicating that geopolitical factors are adding a risk premium to oil prices [6][22]. Group 4: Developments in Venezuela - Global commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura have gained an early advantage in controlling Venezuelan oil, surpassing U.S. oil giants who are hesitant due to legal risks [24][25]. - The U.S. government is collaborating with these traders to expedite the flow of Venezuelan oil exports, which is crucial for funding the interim government [24][25]. Group 5: Iranian Situation - Iran claims to have regained control over domestic unrest, which has eased short-term supply concerns, but the geopolitical situation remains fluid [27][28]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country engaging in business with Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a surprising rebound, ending a two-day decline with a peak increase of over 5%, defying the general trend of significant declines in commodities [5][6][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - WTI crude oil futures closed at $57.76 per barrel, up $1.77 or 3.16% [9][25]. - Brent crude oil futures rose by $2.03, or 3.39%, closing at $61.99 per barrel [9][25]. - INE crude oil futures increased by 1.58%, closing at 424.6 yuan [9][25]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to a correction of overly pessimistic sentiments following recent geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Iran [6][8][24]. - The U.S. government announced plans to indefinitely control Venezuelan oil sales, which has created uncertainty in the market [13][29]. - Venezuela's oil production has been declining due to U.S. sanctions, with a reported drop of approximately 14%, bringing production down to 830,000 barrels per day [10][26]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil inventories are reportedly increasing, indicating that supply pressures remain a significant driver of oil prices [8][24]. - The OPEC production survey showed that despite Venezuela's production decline, overall OPEC output remained stable, with Iraq increasing its production by 80,000 barrels per day [10][26]. - Rystad Energy estimates that maintaining Venezuelan oil production at 1.1 million barrels per day will require approximately $53 billion in investments over the next 15 years [11][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current rebound in oil prices may not be sustainable due to ongoing supply surplus pressures and complex market dynamics [8][24]. - The first quarter of the year is suggested to focus on short-selling strategies for oil prices, emphasizing risk management [8][24].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced slight declines due to geopolitical tensions in regions such as Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela, which have created market disturbances while the oversupply situation in the oil market remains unchanged [4][17]. Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures closed at $57.95 per barrel, down by 0.22%, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.33 per barrel, down by 0.26% [6][19]. - The latest API data indicated an increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, which is bearish for oil prices [4][17]. Supply and Demand Factors - December is noted as a period with the least pressure from oversupply in the second half of the year, with seasonal demand increases during the holiday period in Europe and the U.S. [4][17]. - China set records in December for both maritime crude oil imports and onshore inventory, with imports exceeding 12.5 million barrels per day, contributing to a historical high of 1.2 billion barrels in onshore storage [7][20]. Geopolitical Influences - Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with at least 24 incidents reported in December, increasing pressure on Russian exports [10][23]. - The geopolitical risks and localized supply disruptions are providing some support for oil prices, although rising U.S. inventories and month-end trading behaviors are exerting downward pressure [9][22]. Regional Market Insights - The Middle East oil market is experiencing increased volatility, with stable cash Dubai crude prices and significant declines in Oman and Murban crude prices [21]. - Kazakhstan's oil production has decreased by approximately 6% in December due to supply disruptions caused by adverse weather and geopolitical tensions [21].