双节需求缺口依然存在，马太效应延续 25年中秋国庆双节白酒动销整体反馈平淡，8-9月行业动销虽然较5-7月出现环比改善，但同比层面仍有 20%左右的下滑。分价格带与消费场景来看，中低端酒动销明显好于高端与次高端，以政商务为主的品 牌当下需求缺口仍然较大，宴席品牌动销速度更快。同时茅台系列酒、五粮液等大单品由于价格下行， 逐步抢占同价位竞品消费份额；汾酒品牌延续一定的向上势能，青20价格保持稳定，玻汾虽然经销商利 润小幅收窄但依然顺价销售。 展望后续，随着后续政策管控常态化发展，政商务消费需求恢复仍需时间，短期仍然影响高端与次高端 酒消费。后续更关注在双节旺季后，企业层面在供给侧的收缩信号，这将会对板块带来明显催化。价格 层面，短期双节动销催化带动茅台、五粮液批价由低点小幅回升，节后考虑到需求环比回落、经销商仍 有一定打款任务且经销商回款意愿较弱，Q4批价仍有压力。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，根据公司与渠道反馈，25年双节整体表现平淡，8-9月行业 动销虽然较5-7月环比出现改善，但同比层面仍然有20%左右的下滑。行业调整期更应关注企业供给层 面变化情况，随着旺季持续演绎，后续行业出清方向会更加明 ...

酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -"硬汉精英"退场，白酒代言人焕新； -高端啤酒"战场"生变：华润、青啤、燕京集体"围剿"百威； -宴席市场成业绩突围"新战场"？ 行业环境 1."硬汉精英"退场，白酒代言人焕新 关键词 ： 白酒代言人,年轻艺人,营销方式,价值主张,生活方式 概要 ： 近年来，白酒行业代言人策略发生显著变化，从过去偏好中年男性代言人转向年轻 化、多元化的明星艺人，如邓紫棋、张艺兴、黄渤、徐志胜等。这一转变反映了白酒品牌从传 统厚重形象向年轻化、生活化转型的趋势，旨在通过"社交货币"而非"权威背书"吸引新生代消 费者。代言人不仅是流量入口，更是品牌与消费者情感连接的桥梁，帮助白酒企业从"卖酒"转 向"卖生活方式"。同时，营销逻辑也从渠道驱动转向消费者驱动，注重社群互动和用户共创， 以增强品牌认同。这一系列变化标志着白酒行业正加速适应消费者主权时代，寻求与年轻群体 的深度共鸣。 2.光瓶酒冷热分化：牛栏山等失意，玻汾"封神"？ 关键词 ： 光瓶酒市场,消费升级,行业洗牌,高线光瓶酒,理性消费 概要 ： 光瓶酒市场呈现"冰火两重天"态势：传统品牌如牛栏山因低价竞争导致营收利润大幅下 滑，而汾酒玻汾等产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The white liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation with a shift towards younger and more diverse brand ambassadors, moving from traditional middle-aged male figures to younger celebrities to connect with new generations of consumers [2] - The high-end beer market is experiencing a competitive shift, with local brands like China Resources and Qingdao Beer gaining ground against international players like Budweiser [4] - The banquet market is emerging as a new battleground for revenue growth, with several liquor companies reporting double-digit growth in this segment [5] - The direct sales revenue of eight listed liquor companies exceeded 640 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] - The low-alcohol product segment is rapidly growing, with expectations to surpass 742 billion yuan by 2025, driven by changing consumer preferences [8] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is shifting towards younger brand ambassadors, reflecting a broader trend of appealing to younger consumers through lifestyle marketing [2] - The light bottle liquor market is experiencing a split, with traditional brands struggling while high-quality products like Guojiao are in high demand [2] - The high-end beer market is seeing local brands outperform international ones, with China Resources surpassing Budweiser in revenue [4] - The banquet market is becoming a key area for growth as companies adapt to changing consumer behaviors [5] - The direct sales model is gaining traction, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [6] - The low-alcohol segment is expected to grow rapidly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards lighter beverages [8] Top Brand News - Songhe Liquor is enhancing its quality strategy and aims for long-term growth through a focus on aged products [10] - The launch of "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" marks a significant entry into the high-end liquor market, leveraging a strong sales strategy [11] - Gujing Gongjiu is integrating cultural elements into consumer experiences to enhance brand engagement [13] - The "UMEET" blueberry distilled liquor targets younger consumers by combining health and quality [20] - The collaboration between Huajun Media and Bojiangfang aims to reshape the market for sauce-flavored liquor through strategic marketing [19]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of low-priced light bottle liquor is becoming a favored choice among major liquor companies and consumers amid high inventory and price inversion in the liquor market. The introduction of high-line light bottle liquor priced around 59 yuan is seen as a strategic move to capture market share in a competitive landscape [1][11]. Market Dynamics - Major liquor brands like Yanghe and Yangshao are launching high-line light bottle liquor at competitive prices, with Yanghe's product priced at 59 yuan and Yangshao's at 58 yuan, directly competing with Fenjiu's popular product priced below 50 yuan [1][3]. - The light bottle liquor market is projected to reach a scale of 150 billion yuan by 2024, with the price segment below 100 yuan growing at an annual rate of 15%, making it a key battleground for liquor companies [1][13]. Consumer Trends - Younger consumers are shifting towards more rational and practical consumption habits, prioritizing quality over packaging, which aligns with the growing demand for high-quality, cost-effective products [1][11]. - The perception of light bottle liquor has evolved, with consumers now seeking both affordability and quality, breaking the outdated notion that light bottle equals low quality [13][15]. Competitive Landscape - The light bottle liquor market is categorized into three segments: national brands with significant sales, regional brands with local recognition, and innovative brands targeting younger consumers through emotional marketing [5][6]. - Major brands are focusing on brand building and promotion to enhance their market presence, leveraging their established reputations to attract consumers to their light bottle offerings [16]. Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces challenges such as product homogenization, limited profit margins, and the need for brands to clearly communicate their unique value propositions [17]. - The ongoing inventory reduction cycle is pushing leading liquor companies to compete for the "staple liquor" market, with a focus on quality breakthroughs to avoid price wars [10][11].