江苏省宿迁市泗洪县朱湖镇高标准农田里，收割机来回穿梭，收割制种水稻。刘烨摄（人民视觉） 9月16日，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期农业农村发展 成就。农业农村部有关负责人在会上介绍，"十四五"以来，农业农村发展稳中有进、稳中向好，中国人 的饭碗端得更牢，农业现代化取得重要进展，为经济社会高质量发展提供了有力支撑。 粮食产量迈上新台阶 "十四五"时期，中国粮食产量迈上新台阶，2024年全国粮食产量首次突破1.4万亿斤，比2020年增产740 亿斤。人均粮食占有量达500公斤，做到谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全，国家粮食安全有充分保障。 这是如何做到的？ 提升产能。农业农村部部长韩俊介绍，"十四五"时期，中国扎实推进新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动， 大力推进高标准农田建设，深入实施种业振兴行动，持续提升粮食综合生产能力。启动实施粮油作物大 面积单产提升行动，推动良田良种良机良法"四良"深度融合。2024年全国粮食亩产394.7公斤，比"十三 五"末提高12.5公斤，单产对粮食产量增长的贡献超60%。 优化结构。针对大豆油料等进口量较大的品种，持续提升国内产能。去年大豆产量达 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant progress in agricultural modernization and rural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the goal of building a strong agricultural nation and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [3][10]. Agricultural Production - In 2024, China's grain production is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons), with a per capita grain availability of 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [4][9]. - The average grain yield reached 394.7 kg per mu (approximately 0.067 hectares) in 2023, an increase of 12.5 kg compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with yield improvements contributing over 80% to the growth in grain production [5][4]. Agricultural Structure and Safety - The agricultural production structure is being optimized to adapt to market demand, with soybean production reaching 20.65 million tons in 2024, and the self-sufficiency rate increasing by 4 percentage points since 2020 [5]. - The quality and safety of agricultural products are being prioritized, with a monitoring compliance rate of 97.5% for agricultural product quality during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [5]. Rural Infrastructure and Support Policies - A comprehensive policy framework to support farmers has been established, including subsidies, price supports, and insurance, aimed at stabilizing farmers' income from grain production [6][8]. - Significant investments have been made in rural infrastructure, with over 4.64 million kilometers of rural roads and a 94% coverage rate for tap water, enhancing public services in rural areas [6][8]. Poverty Alleviation and Economic Development - The government has implemented various support measures to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, with over 600 million monitoring subjects identified for assistance to prevent the risk of returning to poverty [8]. - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," a total of 850.5 billion yuan has been allocated to support rural revitalization, improving infrastructure and public services in poverty-stricken areas [8]. Employment and Income Growth - The income of farmers has seen rapid growth, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 in 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at supporting agricultural and rural development [9].

2024年全国粮食产量突破1.4万亿斤，水产品总产量持续36年居全球第一，农民生活水平持续提升，宜 居宜业和美乡村建设取得新成效……9月16日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列 主题新闻发布会。农业农村部部长韩俊在会上介绍，"十四五"以来，我国农业农村发展保持稳中有进、 稳中向好的良好势头，为经济社会高质量发展提供了有力支撑。 粮食产量高结构优 "现在人均粮食占有量已经达到500公斤，做到了谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全，国家粮食安全有充分保 障。"韩俊介绍，棉油糖产能也持续提升，果菜茶、肉蛋奶和水产品供给充足、种类多样。 除了抓产量，还要优结构。韩俊表示，为适应市场需求变化，我国主动优化农业生产结构，提升产品品 质，满足人民群众多样化、优质化需求。比如，针对大豆油料等进口量比较大的品种，持续提升国内产 能。去年，我国大豆产量达2065万吨，大豆自给率比2020年提高了4个百分点。油料作物产量3978.7万 吨，食用植物油自给率提高了近5个百分点。 农业生产要增强韧性。近年来，我国极端天气多发重发，给粮食生产带来新的挑战。韩俊介绍，农业农 村部不断强化灾害预警预报，大力推进农田水利建设、农田沟 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese government is committed to achieving high-quality agricultural and rural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on building a strong agricultural nation and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [1][8] Agricultural Production - Grain production is expected to reach approximately 1.4 trillion jin (around 700 million tons) in 2024, with a per capita grain availability of 500 kg, ensuring basic self-sufficiency in grains and absolute safety in staple food [2][3] - The area for autumn grain cultivation has increased, and the growth conditions are favorable, setting a solid foundation for a bountiful harvest [2] - The average yield of grain per mu (0.067 hectares) increased to 394.7 kg, contributing over 80% to the growth in grain production [3] Structural Optimization - The agricultural production structure is being optimized to meet market demands, with soybean production expected to reach 20.65 million tons in 2024, and oilseed production increasing by nearly 5 percentage points in self-sufficiency [3] - The variety of agricultural products is expanding, with sufficient supply of fruits, vegetables, meat, and aquatic products, enhancing the nutritional balance of residents' diets [3] Policy Support - A comprehensive policy framework has been established to support farmers, including subsidies, price supports, and insurance systems, ensuring stable income for grain producers [4] - Significant investments have been made in rural infrastructure, with over 4.64 million kilometers of rural roads and a 94% access rate for tap water [4] Rural Reform - The second round of land contracting has been extended for another 30 years, with pilot programs launched in several provinces to enhance land management and protect farmers' rights [5] - The government emphasizes voluntary and compensated land transfers, prohibiting forced measures to promote land circulation [5] Poverty Alleviation and Support - A robust support system is in place to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, with an average of 3 to 5 support measures provided to households at risk of returning to poverty [6] - Central government funding for rural revitalization has reached 850.5 billion yuan, improving infrastructure and public services in poverty-stricken areas [6] Overall Agricultural Stability - The agricultural sector is crucial for employment and rural stability, with significant improvements in living conditions and infrastructure for nearly 500 million rural residents [7] - The income of farmers has been growing rapidly, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 in 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of supportive policies [7] Future Outlook - The focus remains on achieving agricultural modernization and addressing challenges in rural areas, with a commitment to strengthening the agricultural foundation and enhancing quality and efficiency [8]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen steady progress in agricultural and rural development in China, with significant improvements in grain production, income growth for farmers, and advancements in agricultural technology innovation [1][2][4]. Agricultural Production - In 2024, China's grain production is projected to reach 1.4 trillion jin, supported by stable planting areas and increased yields, with the national grain sowing area reaching 1.79 billion mu, an increase of over 3.8 million mu since 2020 [2][3]. - The average grain yield per mu is expected to be 394.7 kg in 2024, an increase of 12.5 kg compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with yield growth contributing over 60% to total grain production [2][3]. Income Growth - Rural residents' per capita disposable income reached 23,119 yuan in 2023, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 2.56:1 in 2020 to 2.34:1 in 2024, indicating a significant narrowing of the income gap [4][5]. Technological Innovation - China's agricultural technology innovation has entered the world's top tier, with breakthroughs in key technologies and a focus on integrating industry, academia, and research [6][7]. - The country has established 50 modern agricultural industry technology systems, providing comprehensive technological services across the entire agricultural production chain [7]. Food Supply and Nutritional Quality - The total output of livestock products and aquatic products has increased by 18.8% and 12.3%, respectively, compared to 2020, contributing to a diversified food supply system [3][4]. - The nutritional intake of urban and rural residents is approaching that of developed countries, with improvements in the quality of food available [3][4]. Rural Development Initiatives - The government has supported the establishment of 210 characteristic industrial clusters and 250 modern agricultural parks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, promoting rural e-commerce and tourism [5][6].

"这几年，我国粮食面积在高基数上也是保持了稳定，去年全国粮食播种面积达到了17.9亿亩。面积要 稳住，单产也要大面积提升，抓住耕地和种子这两个要害。"韩俊表示，去年我国粮食播种面积比2020 年增加了3800多万亩，这为我国粮食稳定增长、确保国家粮食安全打下了良好基础。 新华财经北京9月16日电 农业农村部部长韩俊16日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，在"十四五"期间，农业 农村部主动优化农业生产结构，针对大豆油料等进口量比较大的品种，坚持不懈提升国内产能。2024 年，大豆产量达到了2065万吨，自给率比2020年提高4%；油料作物产量3978.7万吨，食用植物油自给 率提高了近5%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 此外，韩俊表示，"十四五"期间，我国粮食生产气候韧性不断增强，三大粮食作物完全成本保险和种植 收入保险政策实施范围已经实现全国全面覆盖。 韩俊介绍，在提升产能方面，农业农村部扎实推进新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动，特别是聚焦耕地和 种子"两个要害"集中发力，大力推进高标准农田建设，深入实施种业振兴行动，持续提升粮食综合生产 能力。今年已在全国选了702个县实施粮油作物大面积单产提升行动，目标就是把试验田里的高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kazakhstan's government is actively adjusting its agricultural development strategy to reduce the planting area of grain and water-intensive crops while increasing the cultivation of socially significant and economically beneficial crops, aiming for crop diversification and balanced planting ratios [1] Agricultural Development Strategy - The total cultivated area in Kazakhstan is projected to reach 23.6 million hectares by 2025, an increase of over 320,000 hectares compared to the previous year [1] - The area for grain and legume crops is expected to decrease by nearly 630,000 hectares to 16 million hectares, while the area for oilseed crops will increase by approximately 1.05 million hectares to 4 million hectares [1] - Sunflower planting area is set to reach a record 1.8 million hectares, an increase of 480,000 hectares from the previous year [1] Water Resource Management - Kazakhstan is reducing the planting area of water-intensive crops such as rice and promoting water-saving irrigation techniques in cotton cultivation [1] Agricultural Sustainability and Food Security - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the need for more rational use of land and water resources, aiming to achieve diversified and balanced crop planting, reduce dependence on single crops, improve agricultural sustainability, enhance food security, and increase farmers' income [1] - A government meeting held on August 18 discussed agricultural development and food security, emphasizing the need for stability in supply and prices of various agricultural products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The export of agricultural products from Russia to China is projected to decline by 16% in the 2024-2025 agricultural year, totaling 4.969 million tons compared to a record 5.942 million tons in the previous year [1] Group 1: Export Trends - The decline in exports is primarily attributed to decreased demand [1] - Grain exports are expected to drop from 1.9 million tons to 1.6 million tons, with reductions in wheat and barley exports [1] - Corn exports have significantly increased due to a bumper harvest in the Far East Federal District [1] Group 2: Specific Crop Exports - Oilseed exports are projected to decrease from 2.1 million tons to 1.4 million tons, with canola seed exports declining by 2.4 times [1] - Soybean exports are expected to decline by 1.1 times, as the domestic market is currently well supplied [1] - Exports of leguminous crops are anticipated to fall from 1.16 million tons to 783,000 tons, a reduction of nearly one-third [1] Group 3: Other Export Changes - Exports of beet pulp from the Central and Volga regions through ports and Far East ports are expected to decrease from 401,000 tons to 295,000 tons [1] - Soybean meal exports have reached a historical high of 915,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times [1]

Core Insights - Current Sino-Kazakh economic cooperation is transitioning from resource-driven to innovation-driven, showcasing strong vitality and broad prospects, with a focus on green energy and digital economy [1] - The bilateral trade volume between China and Kazakhstan is projected to reach $43.8 billion in 2024, marking a historical high [1] - Kazakhstan's exports to China are diversifying beyond energy and resources, with increasing shares of wheat, oilseeds, meat, and honey, while China's exports mainly consist of machinery, electronics, building materials, and consumer goods [1] Trade and Investment - The structure of trade is continuously optimizing, with both countries' economic complementary advantages becoming more pronounced [1] - Chinese enterprises are actively participating in Kazakhstan's energy infrastructure upgrades, industrial parks, and technology parks, with a gradual expansion into green energy, resource deep processing, smart manufacturing, and digital economy [1] - The railway freight volume between China and Kazakhstan is expected to exceed 32 million tons in 2024, setting a new record [1] Infrastructure and Logistics - The China-Europe Railway Express has achieved normalized operations, and the cooperation at the Horgos port is deepening, enhancing Kazakhstan's hub position in the regional logistics network [2] - Ongoing efforts are being made to improve cross-border infrastructure and customs systems, further strengthening connectivity between China and Central Asia, as well as Europe [2] Challenges and Future Prospects - Despite the deepening cooperation, challenges remain in standard alignment, technical collaboration, and the participation of small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The upcoming second China-Central Asia Summit is anticipated to deepen industrial connections in key areas such as green energy and digital technology, promoting more pragmatic and efficient regional cooperation [2] - The Atameken National Chamber of Entrepreneurs has been instrumental in facilitating Sino-Kazakh economic exchanges since its establishment in 2013, and it aims to continue building platforms for enterprise cooperation and project implementation [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the overall impact of the end of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy is expected to be minimal due to the low GDP and export shares of both countries [2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely conclude this year, leading to increased focus on post-war reconstruction and its implications for global commodity and financial markets [1]. - It highlights that Russia's economy has become increasingly reliant on energy exports due to the war, with significant changes in export structures and market dynamics [5][9]. - The report suggests that while short-term energy prices have not yet reflected recent developments, mid-term prices may face downward pressure as Russia resumes pre-conflict export levels [19][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Impact on Global Economy - Russia's GDP in 2023 is projected at $6.45 trillion, accounting for 3.51% of global GDP, while Ukraine's GDP is only $622 million, representing 0.34% [2]. - The export totals for Russia and Ukraine are $424.22 billion (1.78% of global exports) and $36.04 billion (0.15% of global exports) respectively, indicating limited global economic influence [2]. 2. Impact on Global Energy Prices - In 2022, Russia's mineral fuels and oils exports totaled $358.02 billion, making up 61% of its total exports, a significant increase from 2021 [5]. - Russia's share of global oil exports in 2023 is 10.5%, ranking second globally, while its natural gas exports accounted for 2.16% in 2021, ranking tenth [9][13]. - The report notes a substantial decrease in the EU's dependency on Russian oil and gas, with Russian oil imports dropping from 25.7% in 2020 to 3.37% in 2023 [15]. 3. Impact on Global Grain and Oilseed Prices - Ukraine's grain exports in 2023 are estimated at $8.306 billion, down 30% from 2021, while oilseed exports are at $5.648 billion, down 18% [23]. - The report indicates that Ukraine's share of global grain exports was 8.53% before the conflict, ranking second globally, but is expected to face challenges in recovery post-war [24]. - It predicts that as Ukraine gradually restores agricultural production, there will be significant potential for increased exports of grains and oilseeds in the mid-term [25]. 4. Impact on Global Financial Markets - The report notes a strong performance in European and Russian financial markets following the expectation of conflict resolution, with the Russian RTS index rising over 16% [35]. - It anticipates further appreciation of the ruble and euro, while the US dollar index may face downward pressure, potentially dropping to 105 [40].