这是半佛仙人的第2000篇原创 1 2 008年4月，淘米发布《摩尔庄园》，次年6月上线《赛尔号》。 2 010年7月，腾讯魔方工作室的《洛克王国》也开始了公测。 那几年全中国的95后和00后都在玩这三个游戏，后来它们也被合称为【童年三巨头】。 其中能直接用QQ号登录的《洛克王国》，更是在那个年代成为了社交破冰的利器。 久到我都快忘了，我曾经还挺喜欢它的。 2 直到最近，我忽然被《洛克王国：世界》正式上线的消息给刷了屏。 我们《洛克王国》的老玩家就是这么权威，虽然平时可能压根都不会提起这个游戏，但当正统续作真要出来的时候，却又默默贡献了超 过六千万的预约量。 一句【你也玩洛克】就能让两个素不相识的少年马上结为异姓兄弟姐妹，拥有一只高等级的稀有精灵更是足以让玩家成为班上最拉风的 仔。 那片遥远而又梦幻的卡洛西亚大陆，就这样成为了无数人的赛博精神家园。 就连当时已经在上大学的我都玩过一段时间这个游戏，一直到现在我的空间相册里还保留着几张那时候的游戏截图，但我已经完全想不 起来最后一次上线是什么时候了。 很多玩家其实到最后都没做好退游的心理准备——明明还有很多事情没做完，那只喜欢的精灵还没练到100级，那个超高难度 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒行业周观察（20260316-20260320) 模型调用量加速增长，游戏景气度向上，多板块估 推荐（维持） 值进入布局区间，关注边际逻辑拐点 【市场观点】 港股互联网：重视防御属性与基本面拐点，大市值平台承压震荡。从个股看， 涨幅情况：金蝶国际（5.61%）/美团-W（4.21%）/蔚来-SW（3.84%）/东方甄 选（3.1%）/比亚迪电子（2.78%）领涨。小鹏汽车-W（-9.37%）/快手-W（-9.04%） /中芯国际（-8.52%）/阅文集团（-7.73%）/腾讯控股（-7.21%）领跌。 【投资建议】 行业研究 传媒 2026 年 03 月 22 日 证券分析师：姚蕾 邮箱：yaolei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525120007 证券分析师：丁子然 邮箱：dingziran@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525120009 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 138 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 17,943.26 | 1.45 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 16 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong growth potential in various sub-sectors such as e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-driven markets [4][3] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of Apple's commission rate reduction on gaming companies, which is expected to enhance industry profitability [14][15] - The AI sector is anticipated to experience significant growth, with a focus on self-developed models and vertical integration in cloud and ecosystem services [22][4] E-commerce - The report notes that Alibaba's cloud services are expected to boost token usage and MaaS revenue due to the launch of lightweight cloud servers [4][17] - Meituan's management emphasizes a focus on core local business and AI as a major variable for future growth, while maintaining a significant market share in instant retail [14][15] Social Entertainment Media - Tencent's WeChat is projected to continue its strong monetization potential, while Bilibili's advertising growth is expected to lead the internet advertising market [4][18] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is forecasted to accelerate to a 27% growth rate in Q4 2025, benefiting from e-commerce and AI applications [18][4] Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [4][18] Short Videos - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with continued capital investment anticipated in 2026 [4][19] IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart is actively releasing and promoting new IPs, with plans to enhance collaboration with overseas designers to penetrate international markets [4][19] Long Videos - The report indicates that membership and advertising revenues in the long video sector are stabilizing, with companies exploring new business opportunities [4][19] Music Streaming - The music streaming sector is experiencing healthy membership growth, with strategies in place to optimize ARPU [4][19] Gaming - The report remains optimistic about the gaming sector's performance, with recommendations for companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network, which have strong product pipelines and sustainable growth [20][4] - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its favorable outlook into 2026, driven by fundamental performance [20][4] Advertising - The report highlights significant increases in internet advertising investments, particularly for companies like Focus Media, which is expected to benefit from upcoming major events [20][4] AI - The report anticipates a new wave of value reassessment in AI, with a focus on high customer unit prices and increased penetration rates [22][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the benchmark index [6][34]. Core Insights - The media industry saw a weekly increase of 2.04% from January 12 to January 18, 2026, outperforming major indices. Digital media led the gains with a 10.38% increase, while other segments like publishing and advertising also showed positive growth [2][12]. - Key themes for investment include AI applications and cultural exports, with a focus on sub-sectors such as gaming, intellectual property (IP), short dramas, marketing, and publishing [4][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry outperformed major indices with a 2.04% increase during the week of January 12-18, 2026. Digital media surged by 10.38%, while publishing rose by 3.32%, and advertising marketing increased by 2.58%. The gaming sector saw a modest rise of 1.57%, whereas the film and television broadcasting segments experienced slight declines [2][12]. Industry Key Data AI Applications - Recent downloads for AI applications on iOS were estimated at 27.93K for Deepseek, 208.27K for Doubao, 78.91K for Tencent Yuanbao, and 106.66K for Qianwen, with respective week-on-week changes of -8.79%, -0.67%, -9.86%, and +25.84%. The weekly token call volume on the OpenRouter platform reached 7.65 trillion, marking an 18.97% increase [3][18]. Gaming Data - The top five mobile games on iOS as of January 17, 2026, were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," "Three Kingdoms: Strategy Edition," and "Genshin Impact: Moonlight Song." Tencent's "Counterattack: Future" launched and quickly gained over 10 million registered users within three days [3][18][20]. Film Data - The total box office for domestic films during the week was 280 million yuan, with "Hidden Kill" leading at 63.73 million yuan, accounting for 22.7% of the total. Other notable films included "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI applications, cultural exports, and specific sub-sectors such as gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing. Notable companies to watch include Giant Network, Kying Network, Perfect World, and others [4][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]

Company Overview - Tencent's main businesses in gaming, advertising, finance, and enterprise services are expected to maintain high-quality growth, with AI accelerating talent deployment [1] Gaming Performance - Domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in Q4, supported by stable performance of established games like "Honor of Kings" and rising revenue from new titles like "Delta Action" [1] - Overseas gaming growth is expected to normalize with a 24% year-on-year increase in Q4, driven by high revenue from Supercell's "Clash Royale" [1] - For 2026, revenue growth is anticipated to be influenced by deferred income from high revenue in 2025 and upcoming titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Crossfire: Rainbow" [1] Advertising and Financial Services - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with healthy growth anticipated in 2026 due to deeper utilization of ecosystems like video accounts and mini-programs, as well as enhanced user engagement through AI [2] - Financial and enterprise services revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with financial services experiencing a potential slowdown in payment growth due to macroeconomic disturbances [2] - Enterprise services are expected to benefit from revenue growth in video account e-commerce technology services and cloud computing [2] AI Strategy and R&D Investment - Tencent's AI strategy is entering an accelerated phase, with significant R&D investments expected to continue growing [2] - The appointment of former OpenAI researcher Yao Shunyu as Chief AI Scientist and the release of the 2.0 version of the mixed Yuan model in December highlight the company's commitment to AI development [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 remain unchanged, while the 2026 revenue forecast has been slightly reduced by 1% to 831.7 billion yuan [2] - Non-IFRS profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1% to 262.9 billion yuan and 294.8 billion yuan, respectively, with new projections for 2027 set at 903.5 billion yuan in revenue and 326.9 billion yuan in profit [2] Rating and Target Price - The company maintains a "outperform" rating with a target price of 700 HKD, corresponding to 19x/17x 2026e/2027e Non-IFRS P/E, indicating an 11% upside from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The new game cycle in January continues with several products like "Duck Duck Goose" and "Heart Town" launching successfully. The trend of Chinese games going overseas remains strong, with leading companies like Dd and others showing impressive performance. The industry is expected to see a series of new game launches, leading to continuous catalysts [2][4] - The gaming sector's product cycle in 2026 shows strong sustainability and performance certainty, indicating room for valuation improvement. It is recommended to continue focusing on investment opportunities in the gaming sector, with relevant companies including Giant Network, Kaiying Network, Perfect World, 37 Interactive, G-bits, Yaoji Technology, Shengtian Network, Tencent Holdings, and Xindong Company [2][4] Summary by Sections New Game Launches - The January new game cycle has seen successful launches, including "Duck Duck Goose," which has gained significant popularity, and "Heart Town," which topped the global free charts in over 50 regions during its pre-download phase [2][4] - The performance of these new games validates the importance of global expansion and social interaction as growth engines in the gaming industry, with a strategy of "evergreen games + globalization" becoming key for leading companies [10] Overseas Market Performance - The overseas gaming market continues to thrive, with Dd's "Whiteout Survival" achieving over $4 billion in global revenue by December 2025. Other games like "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" and "Truck Star" have also shown strong performance in the overseas market [10] Future Game Releases - Upcoming game releases include Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" on January 13, "Rock Kingdom: World" on March 26, and several others from various companies, indicating a busy launch schedule that may catalyze further industry growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - MiHoYo has taken significant legal action against game content leaks, reflecting its challenges in maintaining growth despite the success of its flagship games, Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail [1][8]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Industry Impact - MiHoYo's "Special Action Against Game Leaks" has resulted in criminal measures against leakers and court orders to cease infringement activities [1][3]. - The leaked content includes unreleased game characters and software testing packages, with over 260 leakers held accountable [3][5]. - Industry experts warn that leaks can lead to competitors mimicking content, potentially damaging MiHoYo's reputation as an original creator [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Genshin Impact has been a major revenue source, contributing over 70% of MiHoYo's income since its launch in 2020 [3][8]. - MiHoYo has faced declining rankings among mobile game publishers, often falling out of the top three in revenue [8][11]. - The player base for Genshin Impact is showing signs of fatigue, with some long-term players considering quitting due to repetitive gameplay and high costs associated with character acquisition [11][12]. Group 3: New Game Releases and Market Reception - MiHoYo's new title, Honkai: Star Rail, has become the second-largest revenue contributor since its release in 2023 [3][8]. - The new IP, Zenless Zone Zero, has underperformed, generating only one-third of Honkai: Star Rail's first-month revenue and dropping out of the iOS top 100 within 41 days [12]. - MiHoYo is attempting to diversify its game offerings, as seen with the upcoming release of Honkai: Star Rail's new game, Honkai: Inheritance Spirits, to compete in various genres [12][13].