这玩意，能上天吗？ 一提到航天、火箭，就有一种高大上的感觉，其采用的材料也应该非常牛。但是，我国一家企业在研发火箭的时候，竟然用上了不锈钢这种"接地气"的材 料。 据报道，国内一家名叫箭元科技近日举行了中大型液体运载火箭总装总测及回收复用基地项目开工仪式。据介绍，这将是国内首个不锈钢火箭超级工厂。该 项目总投资达52亿元，未来将具备年产25发火箭的规模化制造能力，并实现火箭回收后的快速检测、维修与复用。 根据公司公开的资料，其打造的"钱塘号"火箭，高度达66米，直径4.2米，起飞质量575吨，LEO轨道运载能力可达14吨，1100km低轨运力一次性9吨，未来 的目标是把商业航天的价格"打下来"，实现单公斤发射成本不足2万元。 从这个工厂的名字可以看到，这款火箭将会使用大量的不锈钢作为关键材料。要知道，现在的火箭，主要采用的材料是碳纤维或者铝合金。相比之下，这两 种材料在确保强度的情况下，材质也更轻，这对航天来说至关重要。 而不锈钢，这种咱们生活中到处都有的材料，拿来发射火箭，真的合适吗？如果合适，岂不是早就用它了，何必搞什么碳纤维呢？ 首先，和另外两种材料相比，不锈钢更便宜。航天级铝锂合金的材料成本通常在每公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the intense competition in the reusable rocket sector, particularly between Chinese companies and SpaceX, with significant advancements in technology and launch capabilities being made by both sides [1][22][41]. Group 1: Chinese Space Achievements - China achieved a record of 88 space launches in 2025, nearing the 100-launch milestone, with notable events including the successful emergency launch of Shenzhou 22 and a record of three launches in one day [1][21]. - The Long March 12甲 rocket successfully launched on December 23, becoming the first methane rocket from China's national team and the fifth globally to achieve this feat, although it did not succeed in its first-stage recovery [4][25]. Group 2: SpaceX Dominance - SpaceX continues to lead the industry with a record of 163 launches in 2025, including a monthly record of 15 launches in October and a successful launch of 29 satellites in one go on December 9 [1][21]. - The Falcon 9 rocket has achieved a record of 32 reuses, showcasing the effectiveness of its recovery technology [1][21]. Group 3: Reusable Rocket Developments - Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket successfully completed its second launch with first-stage recovery, marking it as the third rocket globally to achieve vertical landing after Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy [2][23]. - The Blue Arrow Zhuque-3 rocket, despite a landing failure, is significant as China's first attempt at orbital rocket landing and the world's second stainless steel rocket [2][23]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Prospects - The emergence of multiple Chinese reusable rockets, including Zhuque-3, Long March 12甲, and Tianlong-3, indicates a strategic move to compete directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9, targeting the high-demand market segment [9][30][31]. - The article emphasizes that the 10-20 ton rocket class is becoming the market's mainstay due to its ability to efficiently deploy multiple satellites and meet the growing demand for low Earth orbit satellite constellations [11][32][34]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The competition in the reusable rocket sector is seen as a precursor to broader geopolitical and technological rivalries, with the potential for China to surpass the U.S. in space capabilities [20][41]. - The article suggests that the ongoing developments in reusable rockets are not just about technology but also about establishing a sustainable space economy and infrastructure for future advancements [19][40].

Core Insights - The global aerospace industry is undergoing a structural transformation akin to the Age of Exploration, driven by the rise of commercial space enterprises like SpaceX. China's commercial space sector is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The urgency for high-frequency networking is highlighted by the upcoming launches of the G60 and GW satellite constellations, which are set to complete initial technical validation and first launches by 2024-2025. This will lead to a critical deployment phase in 2026-2027, necessitating increased manufacturing capacity in upstream sectors [1]. - A breakthrough in capacity bottlenecks is anticipated, as reusable rockets like the Zhuque-3 from Landspace are expected to significantly reduce launch costs during the 2026-2027 period, alleviating long-standing deployment issues for satellite constellations in China [1][2]. Group 2: Market Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation framework for commercial aerospace is shifting from a broad narrative of Total Addressable Market (TAM) to a more concrete analysis based on Price-to-Sales (PS) ratios and order visibility. As satellite manufacturing capacity increases and launch frequencies rise, cash flows for core supporting companies in the commercial aerospace sector are expected to improve significantly [2]. - The rapid iteration of SpaceX's Falcon 9, Starship, and Starlink not only validates the business model but also creates competitive pressure that accelerates domestic policy and capital towards core companies in the sector [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended leading up to 2026, focusing on state-owned system integrators that secure core frequency resources for stable returns, while also investing in private sector leaders in commercial rocket and satellite components for higher potential returns. Companies closely tied to the supply chain of commercial rockets and constellations are expected to benefit first from the shift towards mass production [3].

Core Insights - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for investors, focusing on state-owned system integrators with core frequency resources for stable beta returns, while also investing in private sector leaders in commercial rockets and satellite components for high alpha returns [3] - The Chinese commercial space industry is transitioning from a policy incubation phase to an industrial explosion phase, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for alpha returns as the industry shifts from prototype development to mass production [5] Policy Cycle - Recent policies have provided a long-term development framework for the commercial space industry, with significant catalysts emerging [12] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasized the importance of commercial space, while the 15th Five-Year Plan positions it alongside new energy vehicles and integrated circuits as a pillar industry [14] - The establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies and action plans aims to enhance efficiency in launch approvals and promote industry standardization [14] Technology, Application, and Capital Resonance - Key technological breakthroughs are expected to lower costs significantly, with reusable rockets like the Zhuque-3 projected to reduce launch costs [30] - The shift from national missions to consumer applications is anticipated, with satellite communication becoming a standard feature in smartphones and vehicles [36] - A surge in capital investment is expected, with the establishment of a national commercial space development fund to support long-term investments [41] Competitive Cycle - SpaceX has established a monopoly-level launch capability, necessitating China to develop its own low-orbit broadband communication network for both commercial and national security reasons [20] External Catalysts - The rapid iteration of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship has created competitive pressure, prompting domestic policies and capital to favor core companies in the space sector [5] Investment Strategy and Valuation Framework - The valuation framework for commercial space is shifting from a broad narrative of total addressable market (TAM) to specific analyses of price-to-sales (PS) ratios and order visibility [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies deeply integrated into the commercial rocket and satellite supply chains, which are expected to benefit first from the transition to mass production [3] Future Catalysts - The report highlights 2026-2027 as critical years for the commercial space industry, with significant developments expected in satellite deployment and launch capabilities [6]

上市窗口打开。 作者/吴琼 报道/投资界PEdaily 过去一个月， 摩尔线程 、沐曦登陆科创板盛况历历在目。 "上市红利要轮到商业航天了。" 现在，下一波超级I PO浮现——证监会官网显示，蓝箭航天I PO辅导状态变更为辅导验 收，公司拟申报科创板上市，辅导机构为中金公司。至此，中国商业航天将拉开上市序 幕。 大洋彼岸，马斯克执掌的S p a c eX凭借着1 . 5万亿美元估值即将缔造人类史上最大I PO。 回 到 国 内 ， 承 载 着 国 家 战 略 意 义 的 国 产 GPU 已 经 率 先 诞 生 摩 尔 线 程 、 沐 曦 两 家 千 亿 I PO，如今相似一幕也有望发生在商业航天。 这也许是宝贵而短暂的上市窗口。 谁是商业航天的「摩尔线程」？ 当初为了争抢国产GPU第一股，各家使出浑身解数，最终摩尔线程拔得头筹。 如今，则是争抢商业航天第一股——蓝箭航天I PO辅导状态变更为辅导验收，公司拟申 报科创板上市，辅导机构为中金公司。由此，新I PO竞赛拉开序幕。 时 间 回 到 2 0 1 5 年 ， 那 被 视 作 中 国 商 业 航 天 元 年 ， 张 昌 武 敏 锐 察 觉 到 市 场 机 ...

火箭回收更是航天活动中的高难度动作。用航天专家的话说，其操作好比"从几万米高空扔一根针，要 保证让针准确插进预先设置的孔洞里"。这一过程中，火箭要在返回段复杂力热环境干扰下，精确完成 姿态与轨迹控制、发动机变推与多次起动、落点精度控制等"科目"，难度之大可想而知。 放眼全球，火箭回收的高难度与高失败率已是行业共识，仅有的两型完成轨道级发射并成功回收的火箭 ——"猎鹰九号"和"新格伦"，均经历过漫长的"试错"之路。中国航天的两次回收失利，本质上是该项试 验高风险、高难度的共性体现。 12月23日10时0分，我国在东风商业航天创新试验区实施长征十二号甲发射任务，火箭二级进入预定轨 道，一级未能成功回收，具体原因正在进一步分析排查。就在20天前，蓝箭航天的朱雀三号运载火箭首 飞入轨，但同样在一子级回收环节功亏一篑。 连续两场"进阶大考"的失利，让中国航天只得暂时驻足复用火箭俱乐部门外，等待发起下一次挑战。 近年来，中国航天发展迅猛，"任务成功""刷新纪录"成为常态，似乎让我们淡忘了航天事业固有的高风 险属性。事实上，航天事业自诞生之日起，就与高风险如影随形。对于由数十万个零部件组成的火箭来 说，没有一个环节能保证绝 ...

12月23日10时0分，我国在东风商业航天创新试验区实施长征十二号甲发射任务，火箭二级进入预定轨 道，一级未能成功回收，具体原因正在进一步分析排查。就在20天前，蓝箭航天的朱雀三号运载火箭首 飞入轨，但同样在一子级回收环节功亏一篑。 连续两场"进阶大考"的失利，让中国航天只得暂时驻足复用火箭俱乐部门外，等待发起下一次挑战。 近年来，中国航天发展迅猛，"任务成功""刷新纪录"成为常态，似乎让我们淡忘了航天事业固有的高风 险属性。事实上，航天事业自诞生之日起，就与高风险如影随形。对于由数十万个零部件组成的火箭来 说，没有一个环节能保证绝对安全，任何一个微小偏差都可能引发连锁反应，导致任务失利。就在12月 23日，韩国商业火箭"韩光-纳米"在升空不久后爆炸；一天前，日本H3火箭在飞行过程中二级发动机提 前停机，未能将卫星送入预定轨道。 火箭回收更是航天活动中的高难度动作。用航天专家的话说，其好比"从几万米高空扔一根针，要保证 让针准确插进预先设置的孔洞里"。这一过程中，火箭要在返回段复杂力热环境干扰下，精确完成姿态 与轨迹控制、发动机变推与多次起动、落点精度控制等"科目"，难度之大可想而知。 放眼全球，火箭回收的高 ...

相关机构表示，往后看，商业航天产业进入加速发展期，运力端实现重大突破。朱雀三号对标猎鹰九 号，明年国家院所运力将翻倍，民营火箭发射排期明确。12月底天龙三号一箭36星发射、2026年蓝箭 IPO、星网招标等事件催化密集。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及航空、航天、船 舶等军工领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，主要涵盖十大军工集团控股的上市公司，以反映中国军工 行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。行业配置以航空装备和军工电子为主，充分体现军工行业的成长性 和景气度。 注：数据来源wind、截至2025.12.17，军工ETF规模为125.90亿，在同类12只产品中排名第一。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Insights - SpaceX's valuation has recently surged to $800 billion, doubling from approximately $400 billion in August 2023, contributing to Elon Musk's personal wealth exceeding $600 billion for the first time in history [1][1][1] - Musk holds about 42% of SpaceX, leading to a net worth of approximately $6,770 billion as of December 2023 [1][1][1] - Bloomberg Billionaires Index also confirms Musk's wealth surpassing $600 billion, estimating it at around $6,380 billion following the internal stock transaction that valued SpaceX at $800 billion [1][1][1] - SpaceX is preparing for a potential IPO in 2026, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, solidifying its position as one of the most valuable private companies globally [1][1][1] Company Overview - SpaceX is engaged in orbital launches using the Falcon 9 rocket and operates the Starlink satellite internet service, contributing to its high valuation and growth potential [1][1][1]

11月底，国家航天局发布《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》明确提及鼓励中国商业航天企业"走出去"，参与国际竞争与合作。 埃及、尼泊尔、阿联酋。 在力箭一号遥十一商业运载火箭近日完成的"一箭九星"发射任务中，有三颗卫星分别来自上述国家。第一财经记者注意到，这并不是中国的商业航天火箭第 一次执行国际卫星发射任务。除了中科宇航的力箭一号之外，星河动力、垣信卫星等商业航天产业链企业也正在试图拓展海外市场。 两个月后，垣信卫星与泰国国家电信、巴西国有通信企业TELEBRAS、马来西亚卫星运营及解决方案提供商MEASAT等达成相关合作意向，推进千帆星座 的海外应用。 不过，上述工程师表示，国内企业在拓展海外市场的过程中，也必须面对更高标准的国际化要求。 "走出去不仅是价格优势的问题，更考验的是供应链的稳定性、质量体系的透明度，以及与海外客户长期沟通的能力。"他说，许多新兴市场国家在商业发射 流程、接口规范、任务管理上存在差异，中国企业需要提前适配国际通用标准，"只有在可靠性、交付周期以及全流程服务上做到可预期，才能真正赢得更 多海外客户的信任。" 和SpaceX抢海外订单 在国际市场当中，Sp ...