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PX&PTA&PR早评-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to have a moderately strong and volatile trend [2]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of PX, PTA, and PR are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The PX market is in a tight - balance situation, with stable supply and limited demand - side drive. The PTA market is affected by cost and supply - side factors, and the supply pressure cannot be eliminated by short - term maintenance. The PR market follows cost trends, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.29% and 0.22% respectively. The spot price of naphtha decreased by 0.30%, while the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) increased by 0.65% [1]. - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 1.91%, and the spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.75%. The CCFEI price indices of PTA both increased [1]. - **PX Prices**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 2.56%, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads increased by 4.93% and 4.28% respectively [1]. - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 1.31%, and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets increased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products remained unchanged, except for the polyester bottle - chip and polyester slice price indices, which increased, and the polyester short - fiber price index decreased by 0.32% [2]. Operating Conditions - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain increased by 1.82%. The load rates of PTA factories decreased by 0.42%, while those of polyester factories and bottle - chip factories increased by 0.14% and 0.92% respectively. The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rates**: The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester short - fiber, and polyester slice increased by 17.41%, 31.62%, and 96.76% respectively [1]. Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device in South China is under maintenance, and the restart date is undetermined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device in Southwest China is planned to be maintained this weekend and may be shut down for 45 days [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: The international crude oil market is volatile, and the domestic PX devices operate stably. Although some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance, the market supply remains stable. The PX benefit is expected to be volatile and stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance in the fourth quarter [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price is pushed up by the cost of PX. Although there are many device maintenance plans, the supply is still sufficient. The domestic demand market is gradually weakening, but the foreign trade orders are increasing, and the short - term downstream demand is acceptable [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is moderately strong and volatile. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream procurement is cautious [2].
宏源期货日刊-20251106
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 03:21
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Naphtha CFR Japan price on 2025/11/5 was $577.50 per ton, up 0.17% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene Northeast Asia price on 2025/11/4 was $741.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Ethylene Oxide average price in East China on 2025/11/5 was 6000 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Methanol MA spot price on 2025/11/5 was 2080 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Lignite (3500) pit - mouth price in Inner Mongolia on 2025/11/5 was 290 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/11/5 was 3914 yuan per ton, up 0.33% [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/11/5 was 3902 yuan per ton, down 0.71% [1] - DCE EG近月合约收盘价 on 2025/11/5 was 3865 yuan per ton, up 0.13% [1] - DCE EG近月合约结算价 on 2025/11/5 was 3865 yuan per ton, down 3.81% [1] - MEG market price in East China on 2025/11/5 was 4000 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI MEG price index on 2025/11/5 was 3985 yuan per ton, up 0.25% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/11/5 was 37 yuan per ton, down from 88 yuan per ton [1] - Basis on 2025/11/5 was 71 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - MEG comprehensive operating rate on 2025/11/5 was 63.74%, with no change [1] - MEG (petroleum - based) operating rate on 2025/11/5 was 66.51%, with no change [1] - MEG (coal - based) operating rate on 2025/11/5 was 59.57%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain polyester factory load rate on 2025/11/5 was 89.56%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate on 2025/11/5 was 82.28%, with no change [1] Cash Flow - Naphtha - based MEG cash flow on 2025/11/4 was -$146.97 per ton, down $10.76 [1] - Ethylene - based MEG cash flow on 2025/11/4 was $112.65 per ton, up $10.00 [1] - MTO - based MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/11/5 was 1486.22 yuan per ton, up 19.91 yuan [1] - Coal - based MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/11/5 was - 142.04 yuan per ton, down 39.83 yuan [1] Polyester Price Index - CCFEI polyester DTY price index on 2025/11/5 was 8500 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI polyester POY price index on 2025/11/5 was 6825 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI polyester staple fiber price index on 2025/11/5 was 6345 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1] - CCFEI bottle - grade chip price index on 2025/11/5 was 5690 yuan per ton, down 0.44% [1]
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251105
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range oscillations. The view scores for PX, PTA, and PR are all 0 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On November 4, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.56 per barrel, down 0.80% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $64.44 per barrel, down 0.69%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $576.50 per ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $686.00 per ton, up 0.07%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $816.00 per ton, down 0.37% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,604 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,596 yuan per ton, down 0.22%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,524 yuan per ton, down 0.18%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,510 yuan per ton, down 0.55%, and the external price index was $613.00 per ton, down 0.49% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,660 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; the settlement price was 6,648 yuan per ton, down 0.21%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,511 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $239.50 per ton, up 1.22%, and the PX - MX spread was $130.00 per ton, down 2.62% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,666 yuan per ton, down 0.14%; the settlement price was 5,672 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,715 yuan per ton, down 0.26%, and in South China it dropped 100% to 0 [1]. - **Downstream**: CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, and FDY remained mostly unchanged on November 4, 2025, with only minor fluctuations in some products [2]. Purchase and Sales and Operating Rates - **Operating Rates**: On November 4, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged, at 86.21%, 79.66%, 89.56%, 75.63%, and 72.28% respectively [1]. - **Purchase and Sales**: The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 48.15%, down 4.89 percentage points; that of polyester staple fiber was 42.61%, down 5.80 percentage points; and that of polyester chips was 68.45%, up 0.33 percentage points [1]. Important Information and Market Analysis - **PX**: OPEC + decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the poor demand outlook due to macro - economic pressure limited the rise in oil prices. The domestic PX operating rate was high, and the market lacked confidence due to the balance between new output and maintenance plans of PTA devices. Although some PX plants' reforming devices were under maintenance, the market supply remained stable. The PX benefit was expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [2]. - **PTA**: The production - cut expectation was not fulfilled. With sufficient PTA spot and no new positive drivers, the PTA market declined slightly. An additional 2.7 million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy was under trial operation, and it was expected to replace old devices after stable operation. The overall downstream demand was weak [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased. The market atmosphere was weak, with low downstream purchasing willingness. The supply was increasing, and the demand was flat [2]. Device Information - Dushan Energy's 4 2.7 - million - ton PTA device (design capacity) started trial operation on October 25, and it planned to shut down old devices after the new one operated stably [2]
宏源期货日刊-20251105
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:26
Commodity Price Information - Crude oil price on November 4, 2025, was $576.50 per ton, down 1.01% from the previous value of $582.38 [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene in the upstream cost on November 3, 2025, was $741.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region on November 4, 2025, was $6000.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on November 4, 2025, was $2095.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on November 4, 2025, was $290.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The closing price of the main contract on November 4, 2025, was $3901.00 per ton, up 571.74% compared to a certain reference [1] - The settlement price of the main contract on November 4, 2025, was $3930.00 per ton, up 1% compared to a certain reference [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract on November 4, 2025, was $3860.00 per ton, with a change compared to a certain reference [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract on November 4, 2025, was $3891.00 per ton [1] - The price on November 4, 2025, was $4018.00 per ton, up 5.134% compared to a certain reference [1] - The market price of ethylene glycol in the East China region on November 4, 2025, was $4070.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of domestic ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was $3900.00 per ton, up 1.73% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts on November 4, 2025, was $88.00 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The basis difference on November 4, 2025, was $74.00 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] Production and Operation Information - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was 66.51%, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on November 4, 2025, was 9.61%, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The load rate of the PTA industry chain factory on November 4, 2025, was 89.68%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The load rate of the textile machine industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry chain on November 4, 2025, was 72.28%, unchanged from the previous value [1] External Market and Profit Information - The price of foreign - market oil - based ethylene glycol on November 3, 2025, was $1423.1 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The price of foreign - market ethylene - based ethylene glycol on November 3, 2025, was $1026.9 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method on November 4, 2025, was $1466.3 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a certain equipment on November 4, 2025, was $1022.1 per ton, with a comparison to a previous value [1] Product Price Index Information - The price index of polyester on November 4, 2025, was $8500.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester chips on November 4, 2025, was $6825.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on November 4, 2025, was $630.00 per ton, up 0.08% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on November 4, 2025, was $5715.00 per ton, up 0.26% compared to a certain reference [1]
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251104
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 07:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The view scores for PX, PTA, and PR are all 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On November 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.05 per barrel, up 0.11% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.89 per barrel, down 0.28% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $582.38 per ton, up 0.32%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $685 per ton, up 0.96% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $819 per ton, down 0.16%; the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4596 yuan per ton, up 0.22% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE TA main contract was 4606 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the closing price of CZCE TA near - month contract was 4542 yuan per ton, up 0.13% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE TA near - month contract was 4552 yuan per ton, up 0.26%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4532 yuan per ton, up 0.44% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4535 yuan per ton, up 0.55%; the CCFEI price index of PTA outer market was $616 per ton, up 0.65% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6640 yuan per ton, up 0.33%; the settlement price of CZCE PX main contract was 6662 yuan per ton, up 0.85% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX near - month contract was 6678 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price of CZCE PX near - month contract was 6690 yuan per ton, up 1.55% [1] - The domestic spot price of PX was 6480 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $821 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $796 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $236.63 per ton, down 1.34% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $134 per ton, down 5.52%; the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5674 yuan per ton, up 0.04% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE PR main contract was 5686 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; the closing price of CZCE PR near - month contract was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.63% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE PR near - month contract was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.63%; the market price of polyester bottle chips in East China was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in South China was 5770 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8500 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [1][2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6825 yuan per ton, up 0.74%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6950 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6700 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6345 yuan per ton, down 0.16% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5600 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [2] Operating Conditions - On November 3, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 79.66%, unchanged [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.56%, up 0.22%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle chip factories was 75.63%, up 2.32% [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester filament was 53.04%, up 9.07% [1] - The sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.41%, down 1.11%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 68.12%, up 22.49% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device No. 4 of Dushan Energy was tested on October 25, and after the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News - The market remained cautious about the US attack on Venezuela, and oil prices maintained a certain risk premium. However, OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which put pressure on oil prices. On November 3, the PX CFR China price was $819 per ton, and the international oil price fluctuated within a range, resulting in limited cost momentum. An expanded device in the Northeast restarted and was in stable production, and the overall demand performance was good [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5680 - 5820 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The positive news was less than expected, the PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, the overall market atmosphere was weak, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Long - Short Logic - PX followed the cost and slightly increased. The PX2601 contract closed at 6640 yuan per ton (up 0.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 174,200 lots. Some PX factories' reforming devices were under maintenance or about to be maintained, but with the supplement of toluene and xylene, the market PX supply remained stable. Overseas devices also operated stably, and there were no unexpected new changes. The call for anti - involution in the industry increased, but in the short term, without actual actions, it had limited impact on PX supply and demand. The PX export volume from South Korea to China in October increased compared with September, and the PX profitability fluctuated and remained stable in the short term, and the industry conference had no substantial impact [2] - The production reduction expectation of PTA was not fulfilled. The TA2601 contract closed at 4596 yuan per ton (up 0.31%), with an intraday trading volume of 638,900 lots. The crude oil market fluctuated strongly, providing cost support for PTA, and the PTA market increased slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and there were no unexpected device overhauls, and the spot basis slightly decreased. A new 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China was tested and produced. It was expected that enterprises would start the new device and shut down the old one later. The production reduction expectation on the supply side failed, and it might be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan due to the large amount of shutdown capacity of some major suppliers before. Although domestic demand was good and foreign trade orders improved recently, the overall downstream demand was still weak. Terminal customers were waiting and seeing or required a discount on the polyester product price, and the actual trading volume was small, indicating that the market had poor confidence in the subsequent market. Overall, the supply side could not relieve the pressure only through overhauls or shutdowns [2] - PR followed the cost. The PR2601 contract closed at 5674 yuan per ton (up 0.18%), with an intraday trading volume of 31,900 lots. Some devices on the supply side increased their loads, and the overall market supply was loose. The downstream terminal purchasing sentiment was cautious, and the market demand was weak [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations [2]
宏源期货日刊-20251104
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Commodity Prices** - Crude oil price on November 4, 2025, was $582.38 per ton, up 0.32% from the previous value of $580.50 [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price index was $741.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - East China ethylene oxide ex - factory price was $6000.00 per ton on November 4, 2025, up 50.00 from the previous value [1] - Inner Mongolia brown coal (tax - included) pit price was $290.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Main contract settlement price of a certain product was $4000.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, up 0.0% from the previous value, and the close price of the near - month contract was $3891.00 per ton, up 0.16% [1] - East China market intermediate price of ethylene glycol was $4110.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, up 100.00 from the previous value [1] - Near - far price difference was $35.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, and the basis difference was -$12.00 per ton [1] - Ethylene glycol comprehensive index was 64.41 on November 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Oil - based ethylene glycol operating rate was 66.57% on November 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous value; coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate was 61.16% on November 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - PTA industry plant load rate was 89.68% on November 3, 2025, up 0.22% from the previous value; Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA weaving machine industry load rate was 72.28% on November 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Outer - plate oil - based ethylene glycol price was $1362.11 per ton on November 1, 2025, down $145.90 from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based synthetic gas method device was $1450.33 per ton on November 3, 2025, up $37.29 from the previous value [1] - Polyester price index was $8500.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, up 0.9% from the previous value; polyester staple fiber price index was $6340.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, up 0.16% from the previous value; bottle - grade chip price index was $5730.00 per ton on November 3, 2025, up 0.3% from the previous value [1]
宏源期货日刊-20251031
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:29
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core View of the Report There is no clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly lists a series of price, production, and profit - related data of various chemical products. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - The price of crude oil on October 30, 2025, was $572.63 per ton, up 0.26% from the previous value of $571.13 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on October 29, 2025, was $766 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on October 30, 2025, was $610 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on October 30, 2025, was $2212.5 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on October 30, 2025, was $290 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $4073 per ton, up 0.20% from the previous value of $4081 [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract on October 30, 2025, was $390 per ton, a significant change compared to other values [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China on October 30, 2025, was $4150 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts on October 30, 2025, was $70 per ton, compared to a previous value of $34 [1] - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was $83 per ton, up $3 from the previous value [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 66.57%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 61.16%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of the PTA industry factory on October 30, 2025, was 89.28%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of looms in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industries on October 30, 2025, was 72.28%, up 0.22% from the previous value of 72.06 [1] Profit Data - The after - tax gross profit per ton of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $1510.24, compared to a previous value of $1529.09 [1] Index Data - The price index of polyester on October 30, 2025, was $8450 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on October 30, 2025, was $6360 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on October 30, 2025, was $5720 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous value of $5740 [1]
宏源期货日刊-20251022
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Commodity Prices - The current price of crude oil on October 22, 2025, is $537.00 per ton, the same as the previous value [1]. - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene on October 17, 2025, is $781.00 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region on October 21, 2025, is $610.00 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - The price of methanol on October 21, 2025, is $2265.00 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - The含税 price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia on October 21, 2025, is $290.00 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. Futures Prices - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on October 21, 2025, is $4003.00 per ton, with a 0.60% change [1]. - The settlement price of the near - month contract on October 21, 2025, is $4000.00 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. Price Indexes - The price index of polyester on October 21, 2025, is $8350.00 per ton, a 0.60% increase compared to the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester staple fiber on October 21, 2025, is $6280.00 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. Industry Load Rates - The load rate of the polyester industry factory on October 21, 2025, is 89.38%, a 0.00% change [1]. - The load rate of the weaving machine industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions on October 21, 2025, is 69.13%, with a 0.00% change [1]. Profit Situations - The post - tax gross profit of coal - based synthetic gas method equipment on October 21, 2025, is $1680.20 per ton, compared to $1683.40 previously, a decrease of $3.20 [1].
宏源期货日刊-20251021
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 13:25
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Price Information**: - Naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/10/17, ethylene Northeast Asia on 2025/10/17, upstream ethane in East China on 2025/10/20, MA on 2025/10/20, lignite 3500 in Inner Mongolia on 2025/10/20 are presented [1]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China on 2025/10/20, various prices are given, including middle price at $537.00 per ton (down 1.56% from previous value), index price at $781.00 per ton (down 0.64%), etc [1]. - Polyester factory load rate in the PT industry chain on 2025/10/20 is 89.38% (unchanged), and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rate in the PT industry chain on 2025/10/20 is 69.13% (unchanged) [1]. - For oil - made ethylene glycol on 2025/10/17, the ex - disk value is -$99.97 per ton (up $8.72 from previous value) [1]. - After - tax gross profit of MT - made MEG on 2025/10/20 is 1683.40 yuan per ton (down 9.83 yuan from previous value) [1]. - For polyester products on 2025/10/20, DTY price index is 8400.00 yuan per ton (unchanged), POY price index is 6750.00 yuan per ton (unchanged), short - fiber price index is 6280.00 yuan per ton (down 0.08% from previous value), and bottle - grade chip price index is 5630.00 yuan per ton (down 0.27% from previous value) [1]. - **Production and Operation Information**: - The overall comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol on 2025/10/20 is 65.39% (down 1.11% from previous value), oil - made ethylene glycol operating rate is 68.09% (down 1.85% from previous value), and coal - made ethylene glycol operating rate is 61.32% (unchanged) [1].
宏源期货PX&PTA&PR早评-20250926
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]