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宏源期货PX&PTA&PR早评-20250926
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]
宏源期货日刊-20250926
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/25 was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41% from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/24 was $841.00 per ton, down 0.59% from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of cycloethane in East China remained unchanged at 6300 yuan per ton [1]. - The spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/25 was 2255 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - The tax - included pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on 2025/9/25 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4246 yuan per ton, up 0.28% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4249 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China on 2025/9/25 was 4300 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) inner - market on 2025/9/25 was 4305 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The near - far month price difference on 2025/9/25 was 74 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/25 was 8475 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/25 was 6850 yuan per ton, down 0.72% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/25 was 665 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1]. - The basis on 2025/9/25 was 59 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/25 was 5790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1]. Operating Conditions - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol on 2025/9/25 was 62.6%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/25 was 65.72%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/25 was 58.14%, unchanged [1]. - The load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 87.81%, up 0.08% [1]. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 69.19%, up 1.64% [1]. Gross Margin - The after - tax gross margin of MTO MEG on 2025/9/25 was 1519.03 yuan per ton, down 4.66 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The after - tax gross margin of the coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/25 was 293.81 yuan per ton, up 6.64 yuan from the previous value [1]. External Market - The external market price of naphtha - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $130.86 per ton, up $10.40 from the previous value [1]. - The external market price of ethylene - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $139.65 per ton, down $3.25 from the previous value [1].
宏源期货日刊-20250924
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 11:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 22, 2025, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $846.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 24, 2025, the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of methanol MA was 2,250 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's主力合约 was 4,212 yuan per ton, down 0.66% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,214 yuan per ton, down 0.82% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's near - month contract was 4,200 yuan per ton, down 3.18% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,139 yuan per ton, down 4.59% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the market price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China was 4,280 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of MEG was 4,290 yuan per ton, down 1.04% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the near - far month price difference was 75 yuan per ton, down from 89 yuan per ton; the basis was 78 yuan per ton, down from 95 yuan per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,400 yuan per ton, down 0.23% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.35% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,900 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. Operating Conditions - As of September 23, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 62.62%, up 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 65.72%, up 0.72 percentage points; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 58.14%, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain was 89.00%, with no change; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.55%, with no change [1]. Cash Flow - As of September 22, 2025, the external - market cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $120.46 per ton, down from - $119.50 per ton; the external - market cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was $137.90 per ton, up from $135.90 per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG was 1,518.45 yuan per ton, up 46.46 yuan per ton; the after - tax gross profit of coal - based MEG was 278.32 yuan per ton, down 59.73 yuan per ton [1].
宏源期货日刊-20250922
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 01:20
Group 1: Price Information - The spot price of bottle - grade chips is 5820 yuan/ton, with a - 1% change [1] - The CFR Japan naphtha price is 96.5 yuan/ton, with a - 980% change [1] - The Northeast Asia ethylene price is 46.8 yuan/ton, with a - 500% change [1] - The ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China is 6300 yuan/ton [1] - The methanol MA spot price is 4022 yuan/ton, with a - 4500% change [1] - The tax - included pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 90.2 yuan/ton, with a - 900% change [1] - The DCE EG主力合约收盘价 is 5042 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change; the settlement price is 5042 yuan/ton, with a - 8000% change; the near - month contract closing price is 3043 yuan/ton, with a - 3000% change; the near - month contract settlement price is 3043 yuan/ton, with a - 3000% change [1] - The market intermediate price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China is 6043 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of MEG inner - plate is 4043 yuan/ton, with a - 400% change [1] - The near - far month price difference of MEG is 9.5 yuan/ton, with a change from 6.0 to 23.0 [1] - The basis of MEG is 8.7 yuan/ton, with a change from 7.0 to 10 [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY is 5085 yuan/ton, with a - 5000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY is 5070 yuan/ton, with a - 0000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber is 4064 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate is 2.6%, with a change from 1.2 [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol is 5.6%, with a change from 3.2 [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 8.5%, with a change from 8.4 [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories is 9.8%, with a change from 9.0 [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 7.6%, with a change from 7.5 [1] Group 3: Cash - flow Situation - The post - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG is 497 yuan/ton, with a change from 1402 [1] - The post - tax device gross profit of coal - based syngas method is 66.3 yuan/ton [1] - The external - plate price of naphtha - made ethylene glycol is 19.0 yuan/ton, with a change from - 12955 [1] - The external - plate price of ethylene - made ethylene glycol is 39.5 yuan/ton, with a change from 13150 [1]
宏源期货:PX&PTA&PR早评-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner. The PX view is rated -1, while the PTA and PR views are rated 0 [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 18, 2025, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.75%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan dropped by 1.56%, and the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) in FOB Korea decreased by 0.67%. The spot price of para - xylene (PX) in CFR China Main Port fell by 1.10% [1]. - **PTA Price**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main - contract decreased by 0.98%, while the settlement price increased by 0.21%. The spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.09%, and the CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA also showed slight increases [1]. - **PX Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main - contract decreased by 1.30%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.27%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged, and the PXN spread increased by 0.15%, while the PX - MX spread decreased by 2.92% [1]. - **PR Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main - contract decreased by 0.89%, and the settlement price increased by 0.38%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream Price**: The CCFEI price indices of most polyester products remained stable or decreased slightly, such as the price index of polyester bottle - chips decreased by 0.51% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain decreased by 1.59%. The PTA factory load rate remained unchanged, the polyester factory load rate increased by 0.22%, the bottle - chip factory load rate remained unchanged, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 2.01% [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament decreased by 1.61%, the sales rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 8.96%, and the sales rate of polyester chips decreased by 33.45% [1]. Device Information - The 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Ningbo Taihua stopped operating on September 5 [2]. Important News and Market Analysis - **PX**: On September 17, due to Ukraine's harassment of Baltic ports, Russia's weekly crude oil exports plummeted, and the overall positive impact on the crude oil supply - demand situation was limited. The cost support for PX was insufficient. The domestic PX operating load was at a high level, and some device maintenance plans were postponed. The demand - side PTA factory maintenance expectations increased, and there was only one transaction heard during the day. The supply of PX increased, and although it was the peak season for downstream polyester, the new orders and load did not exceed expectations, and the PXN was expected to operate weakly [2]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals did not change significantly. The influence of the Fed's interest - rate cut was overdrawn, the crude oil market declined during the session, the sales of polyester filament were flat, and the PTA market increase was limited. The supply of PTA was expected to increase in the short term, and the new PTA device maintenance plans from October to November had limited impact on the current market [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures first rose and then fell. The supply - side quotations were mostly stable, and some were lowered in the afternoon. The downstream terminals were cautious and the trading atmosphere was cold [2].
宏源期货日刊-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:07
Group 1: Price Information - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/18 was $599.38 per ton, down 1.56% from the previous value [1] - Price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/17 was $851.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/9/19 was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/18 was 2,280 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Pit - mouth price (tax - included brown coal) of coal (Q3500 in Inner Mongolia) on 2025/9/18 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,268 yuan per ton, down 0.67% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,282 yuan per ton, down 0.16% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG in East China) on 2025/9/18 was 4,370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic on 2025/9/18 was 4,345 yuan per ton, down 0.80% from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/9/18 was 56 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan from the previous value [1] - Basis on 2025/9/18 was 77 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/18 was 8,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/18 was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/18 was 6,465 yuan per ton, down 0.08% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/18 was 5,820 yuan per ton, down 0.51% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (comprehensive) on 2025/9/18 was 61.32%, down 0.88% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/18 was 63.52%, down 1.48% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/18 was 58.14%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/9/18 was 89.00%, up 0.22% from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on 2025/9/18 was 67.55%, up 2.01% from the previous value [1] Group 3: Cash - flow and Gross - profit Situation - Cash - flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $126.19 per ton, down 0.69% from the previous value [1] - Cash - flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $139.15 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on 2025/9/18 was - 1,485.02 yuan per ton, down 19.74% from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/18 was 382.30 yuan per ton, down 25.66 yuan from the previous value [1]
宏源期货日刊-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 10:54
Group 1: Price Changes - The price of crude oil on September 18, 2025, was $608.88 per ton, up $0.66 or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on September 18, 2025, was unchanged at $851 per ton [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on September 18, 2025, was $6300 per ton, up $50 or 0.8% [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of coal was $4289 per ton on September 17, 2025, down 0.21% [1] - The price of ethylene glycol in the domestic market on September 17, 2025, was $4380 per ton, unchanged [1] Group 2: Production and Operation - The operating rate of polyester factories was 88.88% on September 1, 2025, and that of textile machines in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 65.54% on September 17, 2025 [1] - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol was 65% on September 17, 2025, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was 8.14% [1] Group 3: Other Indicators - The price index of polyester was $8550 per ton on September 17, 2025, unchanged; the price index of polyester staple fiber was $640 per ton on September 1, 2025, unchanged [1] - The external price of oil - based ethylene glycol was $124.91 per ton on September 16, 2025, down $6.17 from the previous price [1]
宏源期货日刊-20250912
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:17
Group 1: Product Price Information - Crude oil price on September 12, 2025, was $604.00 per ton, up 0.12% from the previous value of $603.25 [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on September 12, 2025, was $841.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - East China ethylene oxide ex - factory price on September 12, 2025, was $6300.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Inner Mongolia brown coal (tax - included) price on September 11, 2025, was $290.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] -主力合约结算价 on September 11, 2025, was $4306.00 per ton, up 0.32% from the previous value [1] - Near - month contract closing price on September 11, 2025, was $4408.00 per ton, up 0.92% from the previous value [1] - Inner - market ethylene glycol price on September 11, 2025, was $4440.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on September 11, 2025, was $102.00 per ton, up from the previous $23.00 per ton [1] - Ethylene glycol comprehensive price difference on September 11, 2025, was $103.00 per ton, down from the previous $116.00 per ton [1] - Dacron price index on September 11, 2025, was $8600.00 per ton, up 0.8% from the previous value [1] - Polyester price on September 11, 2025, was $7000.00 per ton, up 1.06% from the previous value [1] - Polyester staple fiber price on September 11, 2025, was $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Bottle - grade chip price index on September 11, 2025, was $5830.00 per ton, up 0.1% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Production and Operation Information - Ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate of oil - based production on September 11, 2025, was 62.95%, up from the previous 62.56% [1] - Ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate of coal - based production on September 11, 2025, was 88.81%, down from the previous 90.24% [1] - PTA industry factory load rate on September 11, 2025, was 88.28%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA textile machine industry load rate on September 11, 2025, was 65.54%, up from the previous 64.56% [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on September 11, 2025, was $1444.79 per ton, down from the previous $1410.21 per ton [1]
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250901
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the PX price rose and then retraced. The absolute price on Friday was down 0.9% week - on - week to $849/ton CFR, but the weekly average price still increased slightly by 1.4% to $855/ton CFR. The PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on more unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and its social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production facilities. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually recovering [2]. - The PTA spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis is weakening, which is negative for market sentiment. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost the price. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The terminal demand is still weakly recovering, but the downstream's bullish expectation has increased. The industrial chain profit is shifting towards the raw material segment, and PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5880 - 6030 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The bottle - chip supply side has a stable - to - falling price offer, and the downstream is cautious. The overall production reduction of the supply side has not changed significantly, and the market spot supply is abundant [2]. - Currently, the pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.01/barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.12/barrel, down 0.73%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.38/ton, up 0.59%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $691.50/ton, up 0.29%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00/ton, up 0.04% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 4774 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4722 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4718 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4776 yuan/ton, down 1.34%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4740 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $634.00/ton, down 0.47% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the settlement price was 6844 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6702 yuan/ton, down 2.53%; the settlement price was 6866 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The domestic PX spot price was 6738 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The PXN spread was $251.63/ton, down 1.24%; the PX - MX spread was $157.50/ton, down 1.05% [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the settlement price was 5954 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5836 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the settlement price was 5832 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5960 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 29, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6540 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On August 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, up 2.21 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 70.76%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 1.12 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.09%, up 1.16 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 41.62%, down 1.77 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45.86%, up 5.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 77.76%, up 35.24 percentage points [1]. Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with an intraday trading volume of 602,600 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with an intraday trading volume of 270,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with an intraday trading volume of 60,500 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].
万凯转债盘中下跌2.12%报159.901元/张,成交额1.88亿元,转股溢价率6.18%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-27 06:21
Group 1 - WanKai New Materials Co., Ltd. was established in 2008 and is a leading enterprise in the research, production, and sales of polyester materials in China [2] - The company is located in the economically vibrant Yangtze River Delta region, specifically in Haining's Qianshan New District [2] - WanKai has an annual production capacity of 3 million tons of bottle-grade chips, ranking among the top globally [2] Group 2 - The company aims to provide healthy, safe, environmentally friendly, and high-quality polyester materials [2] - WanKai's products are sold to over a hundred countries and regions worldwide, representing "Made in China" in the bottle-grade PET industry [2] - The company has established multiple research and development cooperation platforms, including provincial academician expert stations and post-doctoral research stations [2] Group 3 - For the first quarter of 2025, WanKai reported operating revenue of 3.919 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.74% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 47.9645 million yuan, an increase of 5.92% year-on-year [2] - The non-recurring net profit was 10.72 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.22% [2] Group 4 - As of July 2025, the shareholder concentration of WanKai is relatively dispersed, with 31,540 shareholders [2] - The average circulating shares per shareholder are 9,030 shares, with an average holding amount of 133,400 yuan [2] Group 5 - The WanKai convertible bond experienced a 2.12% decline, trading at 159.901 yuan per share, with a transaction volume of 188 million yuan [1] - The bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity of 6 years, with specific interest rates for each year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 11.3 yuan, with the conversion starting on February 24, 2025 [1]