磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的出口指导具 体情况如下：1、2025年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在5-9月高峰期，第二批视国内 供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。3、2025年磷肥出口配额总量比去年 减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进 一步维持企业盈利水平，建议关注具备磷矿资源配套的大型磷化工企业：云天化。 化工安全事故频发引起重视，农药整体景气度有望抬升。5月27日，友道化学发生爆炸 事故，其生产的氯虫苯甲酰胺（商品名为"康宽"）的中间体合成涉及硝化、重氮化反应。硝 化反应是《首批重点监管的危险化工工艺目录》中18种危险工艺中的其中一种，国家应急管 理部在24年印发的《淘汰落后危险化学品安全生产工艺技术设备目录（第二批）》中已经明 确将间歇或半间歇釜式硝化工艺列为限制类，要求两年内改造为微通道反应器、管式反应器 或连续釜式硝化生产工艺。事故发生后，国务院高度重视并亲自挂牌督办，我们预计农药行 业或将展开全国范围的安全严查，涉及危险工艺的不合规产能或加快清退，助力农药行业景 气度回升。 风险提示：下游需求不及 ...

CCL 迎涨价潮，持续关注 AIPCB 上游 材料机会 ——电子行业观点报告 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 [行业Table_Industry] : 电子 日期: shzqdatemark [Table_Author] 分析师: 方晨 Tel: 021-53686475 2025年08月22日 | E-mail: | fangchen@shzq.com | | --- | --- | | SAC 编号: | S0870523060001 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -6% 3% 13% 22% 32% 42% 51% 61% 70% 08/24 10/24 01/25 03/25 06/25 08/25 电子 沪深300 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 动 态 ◆CCL 迎来涨价潮，建滔积层板发布涨价函，宏瑞兴、威利邦等厂商跟 进。 近日建滔积层板发布涨价函，宣布 8 月 15 日起，CEM-1/ 22F/V0/HB/FR-4 等产品，每张涨价 10 元。同日二线厂商也发布涨价 函，威利邦因铜价上涨，8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a widespread dilemma of increasing production without increasing profits, with the industry's operating revenue profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, and remaining low in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The low-quality and homogeneous competition is primarily due to excessive investment and repeated construction, resulting in product homogenization, along with local governments' blind investment promotion exacerbating overcapacity [1] - The central government has proposed comprehensive rectification requirements to address these issues, including strengthening self-discipline, promoting innovation, and eliminating non-compliant capacity based on energy efficiency and environmental standards [2] Group 2: Policy Developments - The chemical industry has seen a gradual deepening of anti-involution policies this year, with significant measures introduced such as the "National Unified Market Construction Guidelines" aimed at curbing repeated construction and market segmentation [2] - In June, a joint notice was issued by five ministries to assess old facilities in the refining and fertilizer sectors, focusing on safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency to promote the exit of inefficient capacity [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to see opportunities for supply-side reforms in areas with significant homogeneous competition, such as refining and certain pesticide varieties, as state-owned enterprises control capacity and new project approvals are restricted [3] - By August 2025, a recovery in overseas demand for certain chemical products and further domestic demand growth is anticipated, with a focus on investment in sectors with improved supply-demand dynamics and scarce resource attributes, particularly electronic resins [4] Group 4: Price Trends - As of July 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decline of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating a slight decrease in the prices of major chemical products [3] - International crude oil prices showed an upward trend in July, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal fuel consumption [4] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The electronic resin sector is poised for growth due to increasing demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The phosphate fertilizer market is experiencing price increases driven by overseas agricultural recovery and supply disruptions, while the pesticide sector is expected to see price recovery due to increased demand and limited supply growth [5][6]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a decline in profit margins from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, with the first half of 2025 still at low levels [1][16][17] - Central authorities have proposed comprehensive rectification measures to combat this issue, focusing on self-discipline, innovation, and the elimination of non-compliant capacity [1][16] - The industry is expected to transition towards high-quality sustainable development through capacity optimization and price ecology restructuring [1][16] Group 2 - The chemical industry's anti-involution policies have deepened from institutional construction to special rectification, with measures introduced to curb redundant construction and market segmentation [2][17] - Key sectors such as refining, olefins, and certain pesticide varieties are anticipated to benefit from supply-side reforms, leading to improved profitability as inefficient capacity is phased out [2][17] - The overall supply-demand structure is expected to gradually optimize, with the potential for profit recovery in the industry [2][17] Group 3 - As of July 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported a decline of 5.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating a slight decrease in the prices of major chemical products [3][18] - The international crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, with Brent crude rising from $67.11 to $73.24 per barrel in July, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [4][19] - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is set between $65 and $70 per barrel, with WTI prices expected between $60 and $65 per barrel, highlighting the importance of geopolitical dynamics and OPEC+ policies [4][19] Group 4 - The investment portfolio for the month includes companies such as Shengquan Group, Hubei Yihua, Satellite Chemical, China Petroleum, Lier Chemical, and Yara International, focusing on sectors with growth potential [9][22] - Shengquan Group is highlighted as a leader in synthetic resins, particularly in the rapidly growing electronic specialty resin market [9][22] - Hubei Yihua is positioned to benefit from its resource advantages in the fertilizer sector, while China Petroleum is recognized for its comprehensive energy capabilities [9][22] Group 5 - The electronic resin sector is experiencing rapid growth driven by demand from AI servers, with the global high-frequency and high-speed PCB market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% from 2024 to 2026 [7][20][33] - The phosphoric fertilizer market is seeing resilience due to overseas agricultural recovery and regional stockpiling, with global prices on the rise [8][20] - The pesticide sector is anticipated to recover as the downward cycle reaches its bottom, supported by increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the U.S. [8][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and dynamics of the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly focusing on the demand for high-frequency and high-speed PCBs driven by advancements in AI servers and other electronic applications [6][21]. PCB Industry Overview - PCB serves as a crucial electronic interconnect component, connecting various electronic parts to form predetermined circuits [7]. - The upstream of PCB includes raw materials such as copper foil, fiberglass cloth, and resin, while the downstream encompasses various electronic products including communication devices, consumer electronics, and automotive applications [8]. Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) Insights - CCL is identified as the core intermediate product for PCB manufacturing, providing essential functions of conductivity, insulation, and support [10]. - The cost structure of PCB indicates that direct costs account for nearly 60%, with CCL representing the highest cost share at 27.31% [15]. Performance Metrics of CCL - Electrical performance is highlighted as a core indicator for CCL quality, impacting PCB performance, manufacturing costs, and long-term reliability [16]. - High-frequency and high-speed PCBs are increasingly utilized in applications such as 5G base stations and AI server GPU clusters, with signal transmission rates exceeding 112 Gbps [16]. Market Demand for High-End PCBs - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach $124.03 billion by 2033, driven by rapid AI application deployment [25]. - AI server shipments are anticipated to rise sharply, with a forecasted shipment of 213.1 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [24]. Upgrading Server Requirements - The demand for PCBs is increasing as ordinary servers upgrade their specifications, necessitating higher performance CCLs [31]. - The global server shipment is expected to grow from 13.6 million units in 2020 to 16.3 million units by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.15% [31]. Market Growth Projections - The PCB market is projected to experience substantial growth, particularly in the server segment, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% from 2023 to 2028 [37]. - The high-end CCL market is expected to expand rapidly, with projections indicating a market size increase from under $4 billion to over $6 billion between 2024 and 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% [37]. Competitive Landscape - Japanese and Taiwanese companies hold significant advantages in the high-end CCL market, with major players like Panasonic and Rogers leading in high-frequency and high-speed CCL technology [38]. - The market for rigid special CCL is dominated by a few key players, with 13 companies accounting for approximately 93% of global sales [38].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" compared to the market, marking its first rating [2]. Core Insights - The printed circuit board (PCB) is widely used in the electronics field, with electrical performance being a key indicator for PCB iteration. It is referred to as the "mother of electronic products" [3]. - The demand for high-end copper-clad laminates (CCL) is driven by the rapid deployment of AI applications and increased capital expenditure by tech giants in AI servers. The shipment of AI servers is expected to rise significantly, with a notable increase in the number of CCL layers required for high-performance servers [3]. - Electronic resins play a crucial role in the performance of CCLs, with various types of resins being used, including biphenyl resin, polyphenylene ether resin, and hydrocarbon resin, the latter showing significant development potential [3]. - The properties of glass fiber and fillers significantly impact the characteristics of CCLs, with domestic companies expected to enter the supply chain rapidly [3]. - Investment recommendations highlight that Shengquan Group has successfully developed polyphenylene ether (PPO/PPE) resin and established a fully automated production line with a capacity of 1,300 tons per year [3]. Summary by Sections 1. PCB Industry Chain Overview - The PCB serves as a key electronic interconnection component, with its upstream primarily consisting of copper foil, glass fiber cloth, and resin. CCL is an important intermediate product in PCB manufacturing [9][12]. 2. High-End PCB Downstream Demand - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to grow from $27.94 billion in 2024 to $32.98 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.01% from 2025 to 2033 [32]. - The shipment of AI servers is expected to reach 2.131 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [32]. - The demand for high-speed PCBs is increasing due to the high data transmission speed requirements of AI servers, with some high-end AI servers already utilizing M8-level CCLs [40]. 3. PCB Resins - Electronic resins are the only organic materials in CCL production that can be designed for specific properties, significantly affecting the dielectric performance and environmental stability of the boards [57][59]. - Commonly used resins include epoxy resin, cyanate ester resin, and hydrocarbon resin, with hydrocarbon resin currently being a hot development area due to its excellent properties [80]. 4. PCB Glass Fiber - Glass fiber is a key material in PCB manufacturing, with electronic-grade glass fiber being a high-end product that provides excellent thermal and chemical resistance [96]. - The report categorizes electronic cloth into high-end, mid-range, and low-end based on thickness and functionality, with specific applications tailored to different performance requirements [94][96].

Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Two new stocks are set to be offered for subscription this week: Jiyuan Group on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shanda Electric on the ChiNext board, both starting on Monday [1][3] Group 2: Jiyuan Group Overview - Jiyuan Group is the largest global supplier of HMB raw materials and a core supplier of high-quality glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate [2][5] - The company focuses on the research and development of dietary nutritional supplements and has over 20 years of experience in the global dietary supplement industry [4] - Jiyuan Group's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 947 million, 892 million, and 1 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 142 million, 160 million, and 174 million yuan [6] Group 3: Jiyuan Group's Fundraising Plans - The funds raised will be invested in the construction of a nutritional health raw material production base, expansion of production lines, and a technology innovation center [7] Group 4: Shanda Electric Overview - Shanda Electric is a high-tech enterprise focused on the research and development of intelligent products for power systems, with a strong presence in smart grid monitoring technology [8] - The company has established good relationships with major power companies and has a market presence across 22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, and 4 municipalities in China [8] - Shanda Electric's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 478 million, 549 million, and 658 million yuan respectively, with net profits of 77 million, 103 million, and 127 million yuan [9] Group 5: Shanda Electric's Fundraising Plans - The funds raised will be used for projects related to power grid fault analysis, smart equipment production, and the development of intelligent charging stations for new energy vehicles [9] Group 6: Recent Market Trends - Recently listed new stocks have shown strong performance, with a notable example being Tongyu New Materials, which saw a 128% increase on its first trading day [11]

Group 1 - C Tongyu (301630) saw a significant increase of 128.05% on its first trading day, with a turnover rate of 83.97% and a transaction volume of 1.624 billion yuan [1] - The stock attracted a net inflow of 648 million yuan from major funds on its debut, with large orders contributing 360 million yuan and 288 million yuan respectively [2] - The stock's first-day financing buy-in amounted to 62.35 million yuan, representing 3.84% of the total trading volume, while the latest financing balance stood at 51.87 million yuan, accounting for 2.71% of the circulating market value [1][2] Group 2 - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of electronic resins [2] - On the first trading day, the top five trading departments on the stock's leaderboard had a combined transaction volume of 203 million yuan, with a net buying amount of 78.93 million yuan [2] - The stock's financing details indicate that it had no short selling balance on its first day of trading [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tongyu New Materials (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board, with a significant opening price increase and high trading volume, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence in the company’s future prospects [1]. Company Overview - Tongyu New Materials specializes in the research, production, and sales of electronic resins, primarily used in the production of copper-clad laminates [1]. - The company’s total market capitalization reached 7.662 billion yuan after its debut [1]. Shareholding Structure - Zhang Chi, the chairman and general manager, holds 11.9973 million shares, accounting for 39.99% of the total shares, and indirectly controls an additional 5.26% through a partnership, making him the controlling shareholder with a total voting power of 45.25% [1]. - Su Shiguo, the vice general manager, holds 7.8397 million shares, representing 26.13% of the total shares, and together with Zhang Chi, they control 71.38% of the voting rights, establishing them as the joint actual controllers of the company [2]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected revenues for 2023 are expected to decline by 17.51%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease by 14.12% compared to the previous year [4]. - For the years 2022 to 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.1928477 billion yuan, 886.2495 million yuan, and 952.4685 million yuan, with net profits of 188.0032 million yuan, 164.4793 million yuan, and 143.3056 million yuan respectively [8]. Fundraising and Investment Plans - Tongyu New Materials issued 10 million shares at a price of 84.00 yuan per share, raising a total of 840 million yuan, with a net amount of 760.3783 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [6]. - The funds will be allocated to a project for producing 200,000 tons of electronic resin and to supplement working capital [7]. R&D and Innovation - The company’s R&D expenses have shown a consistent increase, with amounts of 7.7846 million yuan, 12.6769 million yuan, and 14.9312 million yuan over the reporting periods, indicating a commitment to innovation [3]. - The proportion of R&D investment relative to revenue has increased from 1.25% in 2022 to 2.27% in 2024, reflecting a growing focus on technological advancement [9]. Recent Performance Metrics - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 27.64064 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.60%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 4.43% [11].

Core Viewpoint - Tongyu New Materials successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on July 10, 2025, marking a significant milestone for the company [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tongyu New Materials specializes in the research, production, and sales of electronic resins, which are essential materials in the electronic information industry, particularly for copper-clad laminates and printed circuit boards [6]. - The company has developed five product categories and possesses high-efficiency production capabilities, having mastered several core technologies through independent research and development [6]. Group 2: IPO Details - The company issued 10 million A-shares at a price of 84.00 yuan per share, increasing the total share capital to 40 million shares post-IPO [3]. - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to a project for producing 200,000 tons of electronic resin and for supplementing working capital [16]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Tongyu New Materials reported revenues of 1.193 billion yuan, 886 million yuan, and 952 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 188 million yuan, 164 million yuan, and 143 million yuan during the same period [14]. - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 29.09% and a net profit increase of 4.11% compared to the same period in the previous year [14]. Group 4: R&D and Market Position - The company has a compound annual growth rate of 20.28% in R&D investment from 2022 to 2024, focusing on enhancing domestic production capabilities in the electronic resin sector [14]. - Tongyu New Materials has successfully broken the monopoly of international leaders in the lead-free and halogen-free copper-clad laminate resin market, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers [14][16].