新华财经上海1月12日电 随着2026年"十五五"规划开局之年的到来，资本市场改革深化与资产配置方向 成为市场关注焦点。近日，在2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，多家机构首席经济学家围绕资本市 场发展与资产配置展开探讨。总体而言，首席经济学家普遍认为2026年资本市场机遇与挑战并存。 在改革深化推动长期资金入市、筑牢慢牛基石的背景下，资本市场将呈现"水涨船高"的整体态势，但波 动加剧与结构分化也对投资策略提出了更高要求。投资中聚焦科技主线、把握商品轮动、配置优质红利 资产，同时需警惕一致性预期带来的波动风险。 三端发力深化改革引长期资金筑慢牛基石 当前，培育"慢牛长牛"格局、增强市场活力已成为资本市场改革的核心目标，而吸引耐心资本与中长期 资金入市、完善交易机制则是实现这一目标的关键路径。 德邦证券首席经济学家程强进一步明确了改革的三大聚焦方向。在融资端，注册制深化需在聚焦一级市 场硬科技投资的基础上，进一步提升IPO审核中技术路线可行性的权重，淡化短期盈利要求，创新估值 定价方式。在投资端，需放宽长期资金在产业投资领域的限制，为机构资金入市扫清障碍。在交易端， 则应追求相对公平的交易环境，建立更有利于中 ...

华西证券首席经济学家刘郁认为，2026年核心逻辑是"水涨船高"，在此过程中各类资产均有机会，但波动可能较2025年加大。节奏上，一年之计在于春，尤 其对于上年强势资产，如股票与贵金属。从预期看，当前市场对股票与黄金的乐观高度一致，这类一致性预期往往促使行情在年初快速演绎，甚至可能走向 极致。转折时点可能出现在春节前后，因预期提前打满后价格推高，后续若不及预期则易引发波动。 股市方面，刘郁认为，今年关键不在指数高点，而在于新旧动能能否共振。"年初各类板块普涨，但长期看旧动能修复或有限。今年结构分化可能加剧，科 技仍是主线，但内部会有轮动。建议通过科创200、创业板ETF等分散化工具参与科技行情。"刘郁指出。 德邦证券首席经济学家程强重点分享了其对债券的中性看法，"利率或呈宽幅震荡。当前资产分化反映宏观经济结构性变化——商品中黑色系弱、有色系 强；股市中传统板块弱、科技板块强。这实质是中国经济'破茧换装'过程的映射，新动能成长，旧动能淡出。去年GDP增速前高后低，但股债市场并未反映 总量下行，而是聚焦结构变化。这一过程仍在持续，目前未见放缓迹象。"程强认为。 （来源：财闻） 新华资产首席经济学家王德伦从三个维度对 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that as of August 17, 2025, institutional investors hold a significant portion of Huazhi Jie (603400.SH) shares, with a total of 64 institutions owning 81.53% of the company's total shares [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 80.00% of the shares, indicating a substantial increase of 80.00 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - In the public fund sector, 47 new public funds have been disclosed this period, including notable funds such as Ke Chuang 200 and China Europe CSI All Share Software Development Index Initiated A [1] Group 2 - Regarding foreign investment, there is one new foreign institution disclosed this period, namely SUPER ABILITY LIMITED [2]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Growth Layer" in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is a significant step towards supporting unprofitable high-potential technology companies, enhancing the market structure and capital efficiency of the board [4][11][13]. Group 1: Policy and Structural Changes - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Sci-Tech Innovation Board Listed Companies No. 5 - Sci-Tech Growth Layer," which aims to facilitate the listing of unprofitable companies in sectors like AI and aerospace [2][4]. - Key breakthroughs include the reintroduction of the fifth set of listing standards, allowing unprofitable companies with a market cap of 4 billion RMB to list, and the introduction of professional institutional investor pricing trials [3][4][11]. - The new framework allows for pre-IPO reviews and targeted financing for companies in the review process, addressing funding gaps during critical R&D phases [3][4][11]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Growth Layer - The Growth Layer is designed as a "growth cradle" for unprofitable technology companies that are in critical R&D phases and have high growth potential [6][8]. - Companies in this layer are expected to have significant R&D investments and are characterized by high revenue growth and uncertainty [31][14]. - The entry and exit conditions for companies in the Growth Layer are clearly defined, ensuring a balance between supporting existing companies and setting clear profitability requirements for new entrants [12][9]. Group 3: Market Impact and Investment Opportunities - The establishment of the Growth Layer is expected to fundamentally change the market structure and quality of companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, benefiting technology firms and investors alike [13][20]. - The introduction of this layer will help alleviate the "financing difficulties" faced by unprofitable technology companies, enabling them to raise funds for R&D and market expansion [15][21]. - The potential for high returns exists as early investments in unprofitable tech firms can yield significant gains, similar to past trends observed in biotech companies listed in Hong Kong [17][18]. Group 4: Index Fund Investment Implications - The inclusion of Growth Layer companies will enhance the index structure of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, leading to a more balanced representation of high-tech sectors [24][25][29]. - The characteristics of high growth and high volatility in unprofitable tech firms will influence the risk and return profiles of indices, necessitating a strategic approach to investment [30][37]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "core + satellite" strategy, focusing on core assets while exploring opportunities in the Growth Layer for higher returns [33][38].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Layer" aims to provide a tailored platform for unprofitable high-quality technology companies, facilitating their access to capital markets and addressing the challenges of financing [3][6][11] Policy Overview - The introduction of the fifth set of listing standards allows unprofitable companies with a market value threshold of 4 billion RMB to list, particularly benefiting sectors like chips, AI, and low-altitude economy [2][4] - A pilot program for professional institutional investor pricing will enhance valuation accuracy for unprofitable companies, reducing risks for retail investors [2][4] - The pre-IPO review process allows for confidential submission of materials, expediting the listing process while protecting business secrets [2][4] - Companies in the review process can raise funds from existing shareholders, ensuring continuity in R&D funding [2][4] - The optimization of refinancing and strategic investment recognition simplifies processes and encourages ongoing technological innovation post-listing [2][4] - New risk management tools, including ETFs and options, are introduced to attract long-term capital from insurance and pension funds [2][4] Growth Layer Characteristics - The Growth Layer is designed for unprofitable technology companies in critical R&D phases, requiring substantial funding for development and market expansion [3][4] - The entry conditions for the Growth Layer include all unprofitable technology companies, with specific exit criteria based on profitability and revenue thresholds [8][9] Market Impact - The Growth Layer is expected to fundamentally reshape the market structure and capital efficiency of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, benefiting technology companies and investors alike [6][11] - It addresses the financing challenges faced by unprofitable technology firms, enabling them to accelerate technological iterations and market expansion [7][11] - The introduction of the Growth Layer will enhance the overall revenue growth of indices, while also increasing volatility due to the high-risk nature of unprofitable companies [20][22] Index Fund Implications - The inclusion of Growth Layer companies will lead to a more balanced industry distribution within the indices, shifting towards more cutting-edge technology sectors [18][20] - The anticipated high growth of these companies will contribute to the overall performance of the indices, but will also introduce higher volatility [19][22] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "core + satellite" strategy to balance risk and return, focusing on both stable and high-growth assets [21][22]

导语 随着国家政策层面对科技创新的大力扶持，科创板在2019年6月13日正式开版，投资市 场更添新力军。虽然科创板和老前辈创业板的设立目的都是为了支持新兴产业的发展， 但两者在上市条件的设置上有所区别，例如创业板对上市企业的营业收入和净利润有不 同程度的要求，但科创板允许在营收和利润上相对较弱、但拥有技术优势的企业前来上 市。从上市条件看，科创板对于萌芽期的企业给予了更高的容纳度。这种上市条件的差 异化，使得科创板与创业板形成了互补和梯度，能够为投资者提供更加丰富的投资标 的。 随着指数投资日益发展，指数基金产品的宽度和深度日渐丰富，投资者可以选择通过指数基金 来参与到科创板的投资。 自打科创板2019年设立以来，中证指数公司围绕科创板，发行了包 括科创综指、科创50、科创100、科创200四只具有代表性的指数。 这几只指数存在哪些差 异？今天我们就来聊聊科创板系列指数的特点。 首先，四只指数都采取了市值加权的构建方式。 科创综指 全称上证科创板综合指数，正如指 数名称所示，指数选取科创板上市的除了实施风险警示的所有股票作为样本来构建投资组合。 科创50 全称上证科创板50成分指数，由科创板中市值大、流动性好 ...