Core Viewpoint - The company is facing a significant decline in performance, with a 49.7% drop in revenue and a 97.72% decrease in net profit for 2024, primarily due to the poor performance of its high-end product line, "Neican Series" [1][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue fell to 1.423 billion yuan, and net profit dropped to 12.49 million yuan, marking the lowest levels since 2015 [1] - The "Neican Series" revenue plummeted from 1.157 billion yuan in 2022 to 235 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 67.06%, with gross margin decreasing from 91.63% to 87.71% [1] Group 2: Inventory Issues - Despite claims of over 100% distribution and sales rates, investors are skeptical about the actual inventory reduction, which is reported to be less than 5% [2] - The company maintains high finished goods inventory levels to ensure "reasonable stocking" for sales, reflecting a lack of confidence in the distribution channels [2] Group 3: Distributor Reduction - The number of distributors decreased from 1,774 to 1,336 in 2024, as the company aims to improve distributor quality by eliminating inefficient clients [3] - This strategy has caused short-term channel disruptions but is intended to optimize the distribution structure and focus on core markets [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company is shifting from aggressive national expansion to a "focus strategy," pausing production capacity expansion and reducing SKU by 50% to streamline operations [4] - The focus will be on the Hunan market and select external markets, abandoning low-return areas like Beijing and Shanghai [4] Group 5: Industry Context - The company's challenges reflect broader issues faced by regional liquor companies during a period of industry adjustment, including high-end market difficulties and channel instability [5] - The management's focus strategy aims to establish a stronghold in the Hunan market, where the current market share is approximately 15% [5]

5月29日，百果园集团发布公告称，董事会欣然宣布，公司已于2025年5月29日就建议实行H股全流通向中国证监会提 交申请，以将合共85,448,554股非上市股份（约占公司截至H股全流通公告日期的已发行股本总额5.5510%）按一比一 的基准转换为H股。于完成所有备案要求（包括向中国证监会备案）并取得所有相关批准（包括联交所的批准）及符 合所有适用法律、法规及规则后，该等非上市股份将转换为H股，并将于联交所上市及买卖。公司将向联交所申请批 准该等H股于联交所主板上市及买卖。 西王食品：将持续改善运动营养业务经营状况 近日，西王食品在投资者互动平台针对提问表示，受原材料价格波动等多重因素影响，运动营养业务业绩近年虽未达 预期，但在长期具有较大的行业市场潜力，且公司已积累了一定的品牌知名度和市场份额，待市场环境改善、业务模 式优化后提升盈利水平。此外，西王食品还谈到，公司将持续改善运动营养业务的经营状况，提升业绩。 五芳斋：决定向股东赠送粽子礼盒产品，并征集意见或建议 近日，五芳斋发布公告称，公司为传承和弘扬中华传统文化，也便于股东更好地了解公司和产品，提高产品的认知度 和影响力，同时使产品精益求精，更好地服务消 ...

| 场，酒鬼酒在这方面有无布局？ | | --- | | 答:您好，酒鬼酒正在布局小酒产品，满足各消费 | | 人群的需求。 | | 12.2025 年 5 月修订的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪 | | 费条例》明确禁止公务接待用酒，请问酒鬼酒当前政务 | | 消费渠道占比是多少？新规是否会导致经销商信心进 | | 一步受挫？公司在 2025 年规划中，对于当前酒鬼酒营 | | 收下降的问题，特别是对于高端的内参销售，有何破局 | | 之道？ | | 答:您好，公司目前产品销售场景中政务消费的占 | | 比极小，此类政策对公司影响较小。2025 年，公司以 | | "一切为了高质量销售"为核心，提升品牌力、产品力、 | | 渠道力、系统力四方面能力，实现销售质量的提升。品 | | 牌力方面，以"文化+产区"为双核，构筑差异化壁垒， | | 提升品牌张力，强化差异化优势，突出酒鬼酒的产区优 | | 势、香型优势和文化优势。产品力方面，梳理产品价值 | | 链，升级产品矩阵，构建"2+2+2"战略单品体系，即 2 | | 个战略单品（内参、红坛）、2 个重点单品（妙品、透 | | 明装）、2 个馥郁香基础单品（内品、 ...

程军向投资者详解了公司的具体举措。在品牌方面，酒鬼酒以"文化+产区"为双核，构筑差异化壁垒， 提升品牌张力，强化差异化优势，突出酒鬼酒的产区、香型和文化特点。在产品方面，酒鬼酒梳理产品 价值链，升级产品矩阵，构建"2+2+2"战略单品体系，即内参和红坛作为战略单品，妙品和透明装作为 重点单品，内品和湘泉作为馥郁香基础单品。在渠道方面，酒鬼酒对客户实行分类分级管理，建设有效 核心终端24000家。在系统方面，酒鬼酒以"组织协同+数据智能+效率迭代"的底层基建，提升系统支撑 力。 高质量的销售离不开高质量的产品。与会投资者最为关心的是酒鬼酒的先进产能建设情况。对此，酒鬼 酒董事会秘书汤振羽表示："公司正在建设生产三区二期工程，将会根据市场变化调整产能建设进度。 目前，公司已有产能15000吨，生产三区二期工程项目投产后将新增7800吨产能。截至2024年底，公司 基酒库存为46769吨。公司严把产品质量，不同系列的产品采用不同年份的基酒进行制造，为消费者提 供高质价比的产品。" 高质量的销售同样离不开高效率的渠道。与会投资者对公司渠道建设工作也颇为关心。对此，酒鬼酒供 销有限责任公司总经理王恒俊表示："2024年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to enhance sales quality by focusing on brand strength, product strength, channel strength, and system strength in 2025, with a core strategy of "everything for high-quality sales" [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Strategy - The company has identified that government consumption currently represents a minimal portion of its product sales, indicating that related policies have a limited impact on the company [1]. - The company plans to implement a "2+2+2" strategic product system, which includes two strategic products, two key products, and two basic products, while reducing its SKU by 50% to eliminate low-performing products [1][3]. - The company is focusing on a full-chain layout to drive scale breakthroughs and enhance channel dynamics, with a target of establishing 24,000 effective core terminals [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high-end liquor market is experiencing a significant decline in demand due to industry weakness, leading to increased competition and price pressure from leading companies [2]. - The company is actively developing small liquor products in response to strong market performance in Hunan [3]. - The company has seen a notable increase in both distribution and sales volumes since the implementation of the BC linkage marketing model, with both metrics exceeding 100% in 2024 [3][4]. Group 3: Product Development - The company is upgrading its "Neican" brand with the launch of the "Neican Jiachen" version, which is expected to support overall sales but will take time to establish [4]. - The company has streamlined its distributor network, focusing on improving the quality of distributors and discontinuing contracts with low-performing ones [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The management team is committed to enhancing consumer engagement through increased promotional spending and improving the product value chain, which has already shown positive results in terminal sales [4]. - The company emphasizes the importance of safety, efficiency, innovation, and competitiveness in its operations to drive improvements across all areas [4].

酒鬼酒 000799.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 动销疲软，静待消费环境回暖 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 根据年报以及一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率，上调费用率。 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.53、0.62、0.96 元（原预测为 25-26 年 2.13、2.58 元）。考虑到公司现金流充足，我们采用 FCFF 估值法，权益价值为 149 亿元，对 应目标价 45.89 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：消费升级不及预期、内参酒鬼销售不及预期、费用投入居高导致利润不及 预期、食品安全事件风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,248 | 1,318 | 1,572 | | 同比增长 (%) | -30.1% | -49.7% | -12.3% | 5.6% | 19.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 726 | 16 | 179 | 219 | 354 | | ...

酒鬼酒 000799.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 动销疲软，静待消费环境回暖 风险提示：消费升级不及预期、内参酒鬼销售不及预期、费用投入居高导致利润不及 预期、食品安全事件风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,248 | 1,318 | 1,572 | | 同比增长 (%) | -30.1% | -49.7% | -12.3% | 5.6% | 19.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 726 | 16 | 179 | 219 | 354 | | 同比增长 (%) | -48.9% | -97.7% | 990.2% | 22.9% | 61.2% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 548 | 12 | 171 | 203 | 312 | | 同比增长 (%) | -47.8% | -97.7% | 1272.7% | 18.1% | 54.0% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.69 | ...

公司近期发布2024 年年报和2025 年一季报。24 年实现营业收入14.2 亿元，同比-49.7%；实现归母净利 润0.1 亿元，同比-97.7%。单四季度来看，公司实现营业收入2.3 亿元（-66.2%），实现归母净利润-0.4 亿元（-163.7%）。25Q1 实现营业收入3.4 亿元，同比-30.3%；实现归母净利润0.3 亿元，同比-56.8%。 动销疲软，收入承压。分产品看，24 年内参实现营收2.35 亿（yoy-67.1%），销量、吨价分别同 比-56%、-25%；酒鬼系列营收同比-49.3%至8.35 亿元，销量、吨价分别同比-46%、-6%；湘泉系列实 现营收0.76 亿元（同比+7.6%），销量、吨价分别同比+19%、-10%。预计消费疲软环境下，公司核心 产品如内参、红坛等动销承压，且渠道库存偏高，发货端仍需控量。合同负债方面，截至25Q1 末合同 负债余额1.8 亿元，环比-27%，同比-24%，订单量承压。 收入基数下降致费用率高企，净利率承压。盈利水平方面，公司全年综合毛利率为71.4%，同 比-7.0pct，销售净利率为0.9%，同比-18.5pct。全年四费率为48.9%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, JiuGuiJiu, reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, facing severe challenges in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 49.7% year-on-year to 1.423 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 97.72% to 12.49 million yuan, marking the lowest profit since 2015 [1]. - The high-end product, Neican, saw a dramatic sales drop of 67.06%, generating only 235 million yuan, down from 1.157 billion yuan in 2022 [2]. - The company experienced a slight profit of 12.49 million yuan for the year, following losses in the third and fourth quarters of 64.53 million yuan and 43.99 million yuan, respectively [2]. Product Performance - The core product, Neican, accounted for only 16.55% of total revenue in 2024, a sharp decline from 25% [2]. - The mid-range product line also faced challenges, with the average price per ton dropping by 5.8% [3]. - The low-end product, Xiangquan, experienced a 7.64% growth, but its gross margin was significantly lower at 56.35% compared to the overall company margin of 71.4% [3]. Market Dynamics - The number of distributors decreased from 1,774 in 2023 to 1,336 in 2024, reversing the growth trend of the previous two years [3]. - The concentration of sales among the top five customers declined, with their share dropping to 26.01% in 2024 from 34.84% in 2023 [3]. Cost Structure - Despite a significant drop in revenue, sales expenses only decreased by 32.96%, leading to an increase in the expense ratio from 32.22% to 42.95% [3]. - Advertising and market service expenses accounted for 71% of total costs, with a notable decline in the return on promotional spending [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company initiated a marketing reform and promotional cost restructuring to enhance market presence and consumer engagement [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a profit of 31.71 million yuan, indicating a potential recovery [5]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure by reducing SKUs by 50% and focusing on high-quality sales and channel management [6]. Industry Context - In 2024, the total production of major liquor companies in China was 4.145 million kiloliters, a decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue increased by 5.3% to 796.384 billion yuan [7].