Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is cautious as investors await the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, with expectations for a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, priced at approximately 87.6% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [1][2] - There are internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members supporting further rate cuts to mitigate potential labor market weaknesses, while others express concerns about inflationary pressures from additional cuts [2] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Oracle's Q2 earnings report, focusing on its debt-driven AI infrastructure expansion plans and reliance on OpenAI, with the company's stock showing a slight pre-market increase of 0.4% [7] Group 2 - Silver prices have surged nearly 110% this year, significantly outperforming gold's 60% increase, leading to a gold-silver ratio dropping below 70 for the first time since July 2021 [10] - Silver's recent price increase is attributed to global supply tightness and expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, with retail and speculative interest driving additional capital inflows [9] - Brent crude oil prices have stabilized after a previous decline, rising over 0.2% to $62.07 per barrel, as investors keep a close watch on the progress of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [13]

美股指期货集体上扬，欧股与亚太市场涨跌互现。债市方面，美债收益率延续升势并刷新阶段高点，澳大利亚三年期国债收益率亦攀升至去年11 月以来最高水平。美元指数基本持平，澳元走强，日元承压。金跌银涨，油价在经历近三周最大单日跌幅后暂时企稳，加密货币下挫。 12月9日周二，市场在美联储利率决议前情绪谨慎，全球主要股指表现分化，美债收益率上行创新高。 汇丰控股首席亚洲经济学家弗雷德里克·诺伊曼表示： "投资者们正按兵不动，等待美联储的决定。由于2026年美联储的政策路径仍存在不确定性，投资者将格外关注联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）的声明和预测。因此，隔夜美国市场较为谨慎的基调也延续到了今天的亚洲市场。" 核心市场走势如下： 市场焦点在于本周美联储利率决议，美股指期货集体上扬，美国债券收益率上行。美国10年期国债收益率周二升至4.182%，30年期收益率一度逼 近4.82%，均创9月以来新高。 据，交易员预计周三降息25个基点的概率约为90%，但分析师认为决议将伴随鹰派基调，暗示明年可能延长暂停降息。掉期市场显示的终端利率 已从不到3%跳升至3.2%，为7月以来最高水平。 | ES | 标普500期货小型 | 6864 ...

Core Insights - Global markets are currently experiencing a short-term oscillation and a complex interplay of major central bank policies, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a rising probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike [1][2] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on December 12-13, while the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on December 19 [2] - Kristina Hooper from Man Group highlights that the rising yield of Japanese government bonds could increase borrowing costs for governments already facing challenges [2] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures are collectively declining, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.07%, and Dow futures down 0.10% [3][4] - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 1.855% following strong auction demand [3][4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stable at 4.08% [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November, with the largest decline in four months due to weak orders [2] - Upcoming economic reports, including the November ADP private sector employment report and the preliminary consumer confidence index for December, are expected to provide further insights into the labor market and inflation [2] Group 4: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Gold prices fell by 0.6% to $4206.48 per ounce, while silver dropped over 1.2% to $57.27 per ounce [4][9] - Bitcoin rebounded by 0.7% to $87053.6, following a significant sell-off that led to nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated [4][13]

贸易前景担忧再度升温，尽管市场对美国政府停摆接近结束抱有乐观情绪，但这一积极因素未能有效提振风险偏好。受此影响，美股指期货及多 数加密货币普遍回调，避险资金推动现货黄金价格走高。 11月11日，市场情绪趋于谨慎。美股指期货普遍走低，欧股开盘集体上涨，亚洲主要股指表现分化。因逢退伍军人节假期，美债市场休市，美元 指数整体持平。黄金、白银同步上涨，加密货币延续跌势。 美国政府停摆41天创下历史记录，预计最早将于周三结束。此前，参议院推进临时拨款法案被市场解读为僵局打破的信号，市场情绪得以提振。 墨尔本Vantage Markets分析师Hebe Chen表示： "市场信心依然谨慎。尽管投资者欢迎'恢复营业'的氛围，但长达一个月的经济数据空白期意味着下一波美国经济数据发布可能会带来 新的意外——即使在乐观情绪高涨的情况下，市场仍需保持警惕。" 核心市场走势如下： 美股期指集体小幅回调。虽然政府开门让经济数据得以恢复公布，有助于市场评估美联储政策，但贸易前景的不确定性显著抑制了乐观情绪。 | ES | 标普500期货小型 | 6845.50d | -11.25 | -0.16% | | --- | --- | --- ...

核心市场走势： 美股指数期货集体上涨。隔夜，由于疲软的劳动力数据，叠加市场对AI投资回报率的疑虑以及美联储官员的鹰派言论，美股三大指数集体收跌。 目前，市场情绪趋于稳定，美股指数期货小幅上行。 除了对于AI估值的分歧，市场对于12月美联储降息也存在明显分化。尽管周四公布的私人数据显示美国劳动力市场降温，美国10月挑战者企业裁 员数创二十多年来的同期最高，但多位美联储官员近期关于通胀的强硬表态，令投资者对12月能否如期降息产生疑虑。 美国就业市场疲软叠加市场对AI泡沫担忧犹存，全球股市震荡，避险情绪提振黄金。 11月7日，隔夜担忧情绪消化后，美股指数期货集体上涨，欧股指数涨跌不一，亚股跌多涨少，现货黄金重回4000美元，美元指数经历十月中旬以 来最大跌幅后上涨，加密货币延续跌势。 当前市场充满分歧，一方面市场担忧AI估值过高，另一方面投资者对于科技进步抱有乐观情绪。随着财报季接近尾声，抛售之后逢低买入的模式 开始出现。资深新兴市场投资者马克·莫比乌斯表示： "如果你观察人工智能领域，就会发现其中存在很多泡沫，我们预计那些大力发展人工智能并投入数万亿美元的公司将会出现回调。这 并不意味着人工智能会消失，但目前的投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns, leading to a decline in gold prices as risk aversion diminishes. The market is preparing for a series of earnings reports from major tech companies and policy statements from global central banks, causing a pause in the record rally of major global stock markets [1]. Market Trends - U.S. stock index futures are collectively down, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.05%. The Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.02%, and the Dow Jones futures also fell by 0.02% [2][3]. - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.3%, the German DAX index down 0.2%, and the French CAC 40 index down 0.4%. The UK FTSE 100 index saw a slight increase of 0.15% [3]. - Asian stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the South Korean Composite Stock Price Index down 0.8% and the Nikkei 225 index down 0.24% [3]. Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.13%, settling at 98.7, while the Japanese yen strengthened, reaching an intra-day high of 151.95 against the dollar, up 0.6% [2][3]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point to 3.97% [3]. - Spot gold prices fell over 1.1%, currently at $3,934 per ounce, following a previous peak of $4,380 per ounce. Analysts predict that gold prices may drop to $3,800 per ounce in the next three months due to changing market dynamics and potential trade agreements [6].