外汇市场已走出年初"特朗普冲击"的剧烈震荡，美元波动率指标回落至美国总统大选前水平。这标志着投资者对特朗普政策不确 定性的担忧显著降温，市场正回归传统驱动因素。 CME集团数据显示，衡量美元兑欧元和日元波动预期的指数本月跌至一年多来最低水平，此前该指标曾在特朗普去年11月当选后 大幅飙升。与此同时，美元指数已收复年内大部分失地，接近特朗普胜选前夕开始攀升时的点位。 美元在大选前曾因"特朗普交易"走强，投资者押注共和党的贸易和税收政策将提振美国经济和货币。在4月后彻底逆转，外汇市场 当月日均交易量创纪录触及近10万亿美元。 对贸易冲突影响美国经济的担忧，以及对美联储独立性的疑虑，令美元指数遭遇1970年代以来最差年度开局。但自夏季以来，美 元开始稳步回升，美股反弹推动华尔街创下历史新高，为美元提供了支撑。 德意志银行George Saravelos在最新报告中指出，波动率预期的崩塌表明"'特朗普冲击'已经结束"，贸易紧张局势缓和，财政政策 处于"自动驾驶"状态。 美联储立场支撑美元 上月美联储会议为美元提供了额外支撑。美联储在降息的同时，鲍威尔在记者会上警告称，下次降息并非"必然结论"。 投资者表示，这显示美元 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 外汇市场似乎已经走出了今年早些时候引发剧烈波动的"特朗普冲击波"，衡量美元波动性的指标已跌至 美国总统大选前的水平。 根据CME Group提供的数据，自美国总统特朗普去年11月当选后一度飙升的美元兑欧元和日元的波动预 期，本月已降至一年多来的最低点。 与此同时，衡量美元对一篮子货币（包括英镑和欧元）的美元指数，也收复了今年以来的部分大幅失 地，交易价格已接近其在特朗普胜选前开始飙升时的水平。 投资者和分析师表示，美国主要贸易伙伴达成的一系列关税协议，有效降低了市场的波动性，而美国经 济在关税冲击下的表现也比许多人预期的更有韧性。此外，全球主要央行正接近其降息周期的尾声，这 也消除了市场不稳定的另一个来源。 ING市场研究主管Chris Turner表示："世界正在学着与特朗普共存，投资者也学会了对各种头条新闻持 保留态度，不再轻易被左右。" 对贸易摩擦可能冲击国内经济的担忧，以及对美联储独立性的疑虑，一度导致美元指数创下自上世纪70 年代以来最糟糕的年初表现。但自夏季以来，美元一直在缓慢回升，这得益于美国股市的上涨行情，在 科技股本周回调之前，美股曾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing foreign exchange risk and the importance of effective risk management tools for companies engaged in cross-border transactions are highlighted, particularly in the context of rising global economic uncertainties and currency fluctuations [1][2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Risk Management - The number of domestic listed companies participating in foreign exchange hedging has surged from 143 in 2015 to 1,241 in 2024, representing an approximate eightfold increase [6]. - The participation rate in foreign exchange hedging has grown from around 5% to 23.6% over the same period, indicating a heightened awareness of risk management among companies [6]. - The demand for standardized and highly liquid domestic RMB foreign exchange futures is increasing, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of risk management for market participants [1][7]. Group 2: Impact on Companies - BYD has raised its foreign exchange derivatives trading quota from the equivalent of $5 billion to $12 billion due to expanding overseas operations and increasing foreign exchange risk exposure [2][3]. - The company's overseas vehicle sales target for 2024 is set at 417,200 units, with a long-term goal of selling over 800,000 units abroad by 2025 [2]. - The significant scale of China's foreign direct investment, amounting to $177.29 billion in 2023, underscores the critical need for effective foreign exchange risk management [3]. Group 3: Financial Institutions and Investment Strategies - QDII funds, which invest in overseas foreign currency assets, are directly affected by currency fluctuations, with some funds maintaining a 90% foreign exchange hedging ratio this year [3][4]. - The investment logic for QDII has shifted to emphasize the importance of currency hedging alongside interest rate differentials, as the risks associated with currency fluctuations have increased [4][7]. - The introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures is anticipated to provide significant advantages, including broader participation in hedging, reduced costs, and potential additional returns from market dynamics [8][9].

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing foreign exchange risk faced by companies engaged in international trade due to rising economic uncertainties and currency fluctuations [1][2] - Since 2015, the number of domestic listed companies participating in foreign exchange hedging has surged from 143 to 1,241, indicating a growth of approximately eight times [1][4] - The demand for standardized and highly liquid domestic RMB foreign exchange futures is rising, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of risk management for market participants [1][4] Group 2 - BYD has increased its foreign exchange derivatives trading limit from the equivalent of $5 billion to $12 billion in 2023, reflecting the growing foreign exchange risk exposure as its overseas business expands [2][3] - In 2023, China's outward direct investment flow reached $177.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, highlighting the importance of foreign exchange risk management for companies with substantial overseas assets [2][3] - The participation rate in foreign exchange hedging among listed companies has increased from around 5% to 23.6% over the past nine years, driven by the expansion of foreign-related businesses and heightened risk management awareness [4][7] Group 3 - The introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures is seen as a crucial step in improving the foreign exchange risk management framework in China, with significant advantages such as expanding participation coverage and reducing hedging costs [6][7] - The article emphasizes that foreign exchange futures can provide additional benefits in risk hedging, potentially allowing companies to achieve extra returns while managing risks [7] - The operational convenience of foreign exchange futures is highlighted, as it allows for quicker hedging without the need for complex agreements or bank credit approvals [7]

Group 1 - The demand for USD put options is strong amid a weakening dollar, with prices for these options exceeding those for call options, particularly in the euro to USD risk reversal options, where the premium for USD puts reached a five-year high in May [1] - Two main factors supporting the dollar are the extreme divergence between the dollar and interest rates, and geopolitical tensions leading to rising oil prices, which may favor the dollar due to liquidity advantages [1] - The Swiss franc has seen the largest fluctuations against the dollar across all time frames, particularly a -1.12% change over one week, while the dollar index has remained relatively stable [2] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate rose from 1.3525 to 1.3598, reaching a high since June 5, driven by USD selling pressure, despite previous declines due to weak UK GDP data [5] - Analysts expect the UK economy to contract more than anticipated in Q2, with a 0.3% contraction in April, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts later this year [5] - The Japanese yen's appeal as a safe-haven currency has been bolstered by the Japanese government's cautious stance on trade negotiations with the US, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current interest rate policy [6] Group 3 - The euro to USD exchange rate surpassed 1.1600, reaching a three-year high, with the options market prepared for this rise through risk reversal options and direct purchases of euro call options [7] - The European Central Bank's interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, although there may be policy adjustments in upcoming meetings [8]

4月7日，当标普500指数触及周期低点4853点、市场风险骤增而不确定性飙升时，高盛风险主管Josh Schiffrin大胆发声，预言市场底部已至。正如我们在Schiffrin向其顶级客户发布报告约15分钟后向高级 订阅用户所通报的，这位高盛顶级交易员当时表示："我一直看空，但现在转为看多。是时候分批建仓 了。"他进一步阐述道： "当前市场感受糟糕，但我预计这只是暂时阶段，6-12个月内价格将走高。我认为双向尾部风险都很 大：一方面可能爆发全球贸易战/衰退，另一方面通过系列谈判可能降低贸易壁垒，叠加减税政策推动 市场强劲反弹。" 当市场血流成河之际，听从Schiffrin建议买入的投资者在一个月内获得了相当于全年回报的收益——标 普500指数反弹15%，在4月末至5月初惊人的9连涨后完全收复了"解放日"后的全部跌幅。 但所有交易终将落幕。时至今日，Schiffrin决定平仓离场。在昨夜发送给客户的报告中，他宣布"从看多 转向中性"，因为"短期内市场将进入横盘阶段"。以下是他对风险资产的最新观点节选： 虽然Schiffrin预期市场将经历较长时间消化，但他最终认为股市将恢复上行而非下跌，这与JPM交易部 门昨日 ...