推荐指数：★★★★★ 在全球能源与大宗商品市场波动加剧的背景下，期货交易作为风险管理的重要工具，正被越来越多的企业与投 资者纳入战略布局。从棉花期货的农产品价格锁定，到煤炭期货的能源供应链优化，再到美原油期货与国际原 油期货的跨境套利，期货市场的细分领域正呈现出专业化、全球化的发展趋势。据统计，2025年全球期货市场 日均成交量突破5000万手，其中能源类期货占比达38%，农产品期货占比22%，金属类期货占比15%，金融期货 占比25%。在这一背景下，如何选择一家具备全品类服务能力、风险控制体系完善且行业口碑卓越的期货公 司，成为市场参与者关注的焦点。 期货市场的核心应用场景与技术需求 期货交易的核心价值在于通过标准化合约实现价格发现与风险对冲。以棉花期货为例，我国是全球*大的棉花生 产国与消费国，2025年棉花期货年成交量达1.2亿手，涉及产业链上下游企业超5000家。通过棉花期货，纺织企 业可提前锁定原材料成本，避免价格波动带来的利润侵蚀；贸易商则可通过套利交易获取价差收益。类似地， 煤炭期货作为能源市场的"风向标"，2025年日均成交量突破800万手，其价格波动直接影响电力、钢铁等行业的 生产成本。而美 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are slightly lower, while Asian stock markets show mixed performance, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index leading the gains in Asia [1][5] - Japan's cabinet approved a record defense budget exceeding 9 trillion yen (approximately 58 billion USD), contributing to a 0.7% increase in the Nikkei 225 index, closing at 50,750.39 points [6] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged to historical highs, with gold rising by 0.9% to 4,541.80 USD per ounce and silver increasing by 4.5% to 74.90 USD per ounce, briefly surpassing the 75 USD mark [1][5] - The rise in gold prices is partly attributed to market concerns over the prolonged US federal government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which weakened the dollar against other major currencies [1][5] Currency Exchange - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased from 155.83 to 156.25 yen, while the EUR/USD rate slightly declined from 1.1785 to 1.1777 USD [6] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, closing at 3,963.68 points, while the Korean Composite Stock Price Index increased by 0.5% to 4,129.68 points, and the Taiwan Weighted Index surged by 0.7% [3][6] - Thai and Indian stock markets experienced declines [3] Commodity and Cryptocurrency - Crude oil futures saw a slight increase, with WTI rising by 18 cents to 58.53 USD per barrel and Brent up by 15 cents to 61.95 USD per barrel [4][6] - Bitcoin price increased by 2.2%, reaching 89,705 USD [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybean, and their by - products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather in crop - producing areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and macro - economic news both globally and in China. Additionally, it shows the capital flow in the futures market and provides an arbitrage tracking overview. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4150.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 0.27% [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of multiple currency pairs like the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are given. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.44, down 0.12% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For example, for DCE palm oil 2601 in North China, the spot price is 8890, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different regions such as the US Gulf, US West, and Brazil are presented. For example, the CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 250 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 506 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - Brazil will continue to have rainfall this week with temperatures near normal. Different states have different weather patterns, and later in the week, southern Brazil may become drier [5]. - Argentina may have precipitation in the next two days, but the weather may turn drier later. If the temperature rises, the weather conditions for corn and soybeans may change significantly [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - CIMB Securities predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons in November due to a 10% month - on - month decline in exports, and production is expected to fall by 8.0% month - on - month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [7]. - SPPOMA data shows that from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [7]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks in the USDA November report is 124.21 million tons, with a range of 122.5 - 126 million tons, compared to the USDA's September estimate of 123.99 million tons [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.266 billion bushels, with a range of 4.152 - 4.336 billion bushels; the average predicted yield is 53.1 bushels per acre, with a range of 51.7 - 54.0 bushels per acre; and the average predicted ending stocks are 304 million bushels, with a range of 187 - 494 million bushels [8]. - Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons, both higher than the previous week [8]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 1.1774562 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume 75% higher than that of November last year [8]. - Imea data shows that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 3 - 7 was 459.16 Brazilian reals per ton, lower than the previous week [9]. - As of November 9, 2025/26, the EU's palm oil imports were 1.01 million tons, soybeans imports were 4.15 million tons, and rapeseed imports were 1.31 million tons, all lower than the same period last year [9]. - The EU is considering delaying the implementation of its zero - deforestation law by one year to December 2026 [9]. - Germany's rapeseed industry association predicts that the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 will be between 1.1 - 1.15 million hectares, almost unchanged from 2025 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell slightly due to a decline in Capesize ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index decreased by 2.2%, while the Panamax ship freight index increased by 1.1% [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 11, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40,000 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous day. The overall oil mill operating rate was 53.51%, a 2.55% decrease from the previous day [12]. - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities was 16.04 yuan per kilogram, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 27.9% year - on - year decrease [12]. - On November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, a 0.01 - point decrease from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, a 0.01 - point increase from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan per kilogram, a 0.1% decrease from the previous day [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7% [14]. - ADP data shows different estimates of private - sector employment changes. One series shows a weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, while another series predicts an increase of 42,000 jobs in October [15]. - The US House Rules Committee will hold a meeting on November 11 (EST) to advance the government funding plan for a vote the next day [15]. - The year - on - year growth rate of US red - book commercial retail sales in the week ending November 3 was 5.9%, higher than the previous value of 5.7% [15]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in October was 98.2, lower than the expected 98.5 and the previous value of 98.8 [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0866, with a 10 - point increase (yuan depreciation) [17]. - On November 11, the People's Bank of China conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured [17]. - The PBC's Q3 2025 monetary policy report proposes to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, and improve the monetary policy framework [17]. - The US has suspended the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, which is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [17]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On November 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.554 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.118 billion yuan, including 795 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 463 million yuan in chemical futures, a net outflow of 622 million yuan in black - series futures, and 4.483 billion yuan in metal futures. Stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.44 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 356 million yuan [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific information provided in the given text about arbitrage tracking.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 period is expected to reach a record high, with the import volume of eight major oils increasing by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the import increase is the expected 6.1 million - ton rise in global vegetable oil consumption, more than twice that of the previous year. However, vegetable oil prices will still face pressure in 2025/26 [10]. - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy may significantly reduce its exportable palm - oil supply, and the global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil [11]. - The weather in the US and Brazil will have an impact on crop growth and harvesting. In the US, future rainfall may help relieve drought but may also delay crop harvesting; in Brazil, the current dry weather is beneficial for farmers' field operations [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Futures quotes: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4466.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.36% and an overnight decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Currency quotes: The latest prices and percentage changes of the US dollar index and various currencies against the US dollar are provided, including the US dollar index at 98.92 with a 0.05% increase [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices and basis information for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9330, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are provided, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 285 cents per bushel and the CNF quote at 483 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - US soybean - producing states: The future weather (October 28 - November 1) in most of the US soybean - producing states will have temperatures above normal and precipitation above the average. In addition, frost may occur in some areas in the Midwest in the coming days, and precipitation may delay crop harvesting [4][6]. - Brazil: The current dry weather in Brazil is beneficial for farmers' field operations. A new front will bring showers to the southern and central regions this weekend and early next week, which is generally favorable for soybean planting [7][8]. - International Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil: The expected increase in global vegetable oil demand in 2025/26 is mainly due to the strong demand from the biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, traditional exporters may reduce their exports, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy is an unstable factor [10]. - Palm oil in Indonesia: If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will increase, and the exportable supply will decrease significantly [11]. - Soybean: The IGC predicts that the global soybean output in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [12]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity trading volume: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean oil was 11,000 tons, and that of palm oil was 3,600 tons, with a total trading volume of 14,600 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous trading day [16]. - Soybean meal trading and oil - mill operation: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 68.13%, a 0.38% increase from the previous day [16]. - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased. The prices of various agricultural products such as pork, beef, and eggs also changed to different extents [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - Fed rate - cut expectations: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cuts in December is 93.4% [18]. - US economic data: US September existing - home sales totaled 4.06 million units, in line with expectations; the Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index in October was 6, higher than expected [18]. - EU sanctions: The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and has also sanctioned some Chinese and Indian companies. China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [18]. - Domestic News - Exchange rate: On October 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0918, a 36 - point decrease (appreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - Central bank operations: On October 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [20]. - Policy news: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [21]. 05 Capital Flows - On October 23, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 27.536 billion yuan, including 3.42 billion yuan into commodity futures, 24.868 billion yuan into stock - index futures, and a net outflow of 729 million yuan from bond futures [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It details the production, export, and growth conditions of agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans, as well as macro - economic indicators and central bank policies at home and abroad [1][6][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 12 is 4369.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.41% and an overnight decrease of 1.64% [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9440, with a basis of 80 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **CNF Quotes**: CNF quotes and CNF premium changes of imported soybeans from different regions are given. The CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 485 dollars per ton, with a premium of 295 cents per bushel [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook (September 27 - October 1) in major US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally higher and precipitation is generally lower [3]. 3.2 International Supply and Demand - **Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions have different statistics on palm oil exports, with ITS showing an 8.7% increase, AmSpec an 8.3% increase, and SGS a 16.1% decrease [6]. - **Soybeans**: As of the week of September 21, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the expected 62%. The export inspection volume for the week of September 18 was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the expected range. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year [6][7]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Oil and Meal Trading**: On September 22, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 15,234 tons, a 177% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.66 tons, an increase of 6.75 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 69.32%, up 1.77% from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 8.79% week - on - week, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. As of September 22, the port inventory of imported soybeans decreased by 14.343 tons week - on - week [11][12][13]. - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's imports of palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed all had different degrees of change compared to the previous month and the same period last year [12][13]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: As of September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased compared to last Friday. The prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens also increased [14]. 04 Macro - news 4.1 International News - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3% [16]. - **Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone's September consumer confidence index preliminary value was - 14.9, better than expected [16]. 4.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Central Bank Operations**: On September 22, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (yuan appreciation). The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 26.05 billion yuan [18]. - **LPR**: The central bank kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [18]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 22, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 5.146 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 9.919 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 5.003 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital inflow of 209 million yuan [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including overnight and spot market conditions, weather forecasts, international supply - demand situations, domestic market trading data, macro - economic news, and capital flows. It shows the complex interactions among different factors such as weather, policy, and economic indicators that influence the commodity market [1][2][9][14][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various commodities are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Also, currency exchange rates and their changes are provided [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are shown [2]. - Import soybean CNF quotes and CNF premiums in different regions are presented [4]. Weather Forecast - US soybean - producing states' weather from July 21 - 25 will have rainfall and temperatures close to or higher than normal. Most areas in the US Midwest have favorable weather with good soil moisture, which is beneficial for corn and soybean pollination [5][7]. International Supply - Demand - Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06% from July 1 - 15, 2025, while exports decreased by 22.18% compared to the same period last month [9]. - AI is being used to transform the palm oil industry in Malaysia, improving oil extraction rates, increasing uptime, and reducing labor dependence [10]. - India plans to increase domestic palm oil production to 230 million tons by 2029 [10]. - A private exporter reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export sale to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 delivery [10]. - Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided [11]. - Argentina's soybean sales and export registration data are presented [12]. - Ukraine imposes a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans, and its rapeseed production forecast for 2025/2026 is given [12][13]. - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - month high [13]. Domestic Market Trading - On July 16, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The oil mill operating rate increased [14]. - Agricultural product wholesale price indices and prices of pork and eggs are reported [14]. Macro - Economic News - International news includes Fed interest rate probabilities, US industrial output, PPI, mortgage application, and strategic oil reserve data, as well as Indonesia's central bank interest rate cut [16][17]. - Domestic news includes the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and China's central bank's reverse - repurchase operations [18]. Capital Flows - On July 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 14.421 billion yuan, with details on different types of futures [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report has a negative impact due to a significant increase in production and higher - than - expected ending inventory [24]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a positive impact as the 25/26 annual US soybean ending inventory estimate is lower than market expectations [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 08 is 3819.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.05% and an overnight decline of - 0.26% [1]. - The closing price of ICE Brent 08 is 64.18, with a previous day's decline of - 0.33% and an overnight increase of 0.31% [1]. - The closing price of NYMEX US crude oil 07 is 61.53, with a previous day's decline of - 0.37% and an overnight increase of 0.34% [1]. - The US dollar index is 98.99, with a decline of - 0.09% [2]. - The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.1833, with a decline of - 0.12% [2]. - The MYR/USD exchange rate is 4.2317, with a decline of - 0.83% [2]. - The IDR/USD exchange rate is 16215, with a decline of - 0.57% [2]. - The BRL/USD exchange rate is 5.6464, with a decline of - 1.03% [2]. - The ARS/USD exchange rate is 1143.000, with an increase of 1.06% [2]. - The SGD/USD exchange rate is 1.2851, with a decline of - 0.42% [2]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China is 8440, with a basis of 470 and a daily basis change of - 10; in South China, the spot price is 8420, with a basis of 450 and a daily basis change of - 30 [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 7980, with a basis of 266 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 8020, with a basis of 306 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Guangdong, the spot price is 8000, with a basis of 286 and a daily basis change of - 38; in Tianjin, the spot price is 7900, with a basis of 186 and a daily basis change of - 18 [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 2880, with a basis of - 73 and a daily basis change of - 39; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 2870, with a basis of - 83 and a daily basis change of - 19; in Guangdong, the spot price is 2900, with a basis of - 53 and a daily basis change of 1; in Tianjin, the spot price is 2960, with a basis of 7 and a daily basis change of - 9 [3]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 145 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 443 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Weather Forecast - From May 31 to June 4, in the northeastern US soybean - producing states, the temperature is higher than normal and the precipitation is generally low [6]. - In the US Midwest, there will be rainfall and low temperatures. Recent heavy precipitation is beneficial for soil moisture, but it may delay sowing in the southern areas. Frost may occur in the northern remote areas [8]. International Supply and Demand - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 0.73%, with a 1.06% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.34% increase in oil extraction rate [10]. - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were estimated to be 991,702 tons (AmSpec) and 947,248 tons (SGS), increasing by 7.3% and 34.71% respectively compared to the same period last month [10][11]. - In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to Algeria increased by nearly 82% to about 79,000 tons [11]. - Thailand's domestic trade department requires the palm oil purchase price to be no less than 5 Thai baht per kilogram and the retail price of bottled palm oil to be no more than 50 Thai baht per liter [11]. - The estimated Brazilian soybean production in 2024/25 is 1.720 billion tons, and the corn production is 1.327 billion tons [11]. - As of May 24, 2024/25, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.5% [12]. - In the 4th week of May 2025, Brazil's soybean loading volume was 11.1543 million tons, and the daily average loading volume increased by 8.96% compared to May last year [12]. - The EU's 2025 rapeseed yield per unit is predicted to be 3.14 tons per hectare [12]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes decreased by 7.2% and 10.27% respectively compared to the previous month [13]. - Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed price increased, and the estimated production is 3.25 million tons, lower than the 2024/25 level [14]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 42% compared to the previous trading day [16]. - On May 26, the trading volume of soybean meal was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous day [16]. - The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 66.73%, an increase of 2.86% compared to the previous day [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil was 338,700 tons, a decrease of 5.84% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 697,200 tons, an increase of 6.23% compared to the previous week [17]. - It is expected that the imported soybean arrivals in June and July will be 12 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will increase significantly [17]. 04 Macroeconomic News International News - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.6% [21]. - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU to July 9 [21]. - OPEC+ adjusted the July production decision - making meeting to May 31, and there are rumors that the daily production may increase by 411,000 barrels in July [21]. Domestic News - On May 26, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was 7.1833, a decrease of 86 points [23]. - On May 26, the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 247 billion yuan [23]. 05 Supply - Demand Reports - Malaysia's April palm oil ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a negative impact on the market [24]. - The USDA May report adjusted the 24/25 US soybean exports upward and the ending inventory downward. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory estimate was lower than market expectations, with a positive impact [25]. 06 Capital Flow - On May 26, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 10.219 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.48 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 11.699 billion yuan in stock index futures [28].