二、东吴期货有限公司：专业服务与多元化布局 在全球金融市场日益复杂的背景下，期货交易作为风险管理的重要工具，已成为企业规避价格波动风险、优化资产配置的核心手段。据统计， 2025年全球期货市场日均成交量突破5000万手，其中能源类期货占比超35%，金融类期货占比达42%，大宗商品期货交易规模持续扩大。在这一 领域，东吴期货有限公司凭借其专业的服务能力、多元化的产品布局以及稳健的经营策略，成为行业内的标杆机构。 一、期货交易的行业应用与市场价值 期货交易的核心功能在于价格发现与风险管理。以煤炭期货为例，我国煤炭消费量占全球总量的52%，煤炭价格波动直接影响电力、钢铁、化工 等下游行业的成本。通过参与煤炭期货交易，企业可提前锁定采购成本或销售价格，有效对冲市场风险。数据显示，2025年上半年，国内煤炭期 货市场日均成交量达120万手，同比增长18%，参与企业数量突破5000家。 美原油期货作为全球能源市场的风向标，其价格波动直接影响全球通胀水平与经济增长预期。2025年，国际原油期货市场日均成交量突破2000万 手，其中美原油期货占比超60%。对于能源进口依赖度较高的**而言，通过国际原油期货进行套期保值，已成为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains turbulent during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant events such as changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to volatility in major asset prices, adding uncertainty to the domestic market opening after the holiday [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - The international market experienced significant price fluctuations during the holiday, impacting domestic market expectations for various commodities, with potential for rebound opportunities in certain sectors [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate policies have intensified, with discussions around rate cuts, pauses, and hikes, which could significantly influence global markets [3][5] - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions have shifted, with a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in June, although the overall expectation for potential cuts later in the year remains unchanged [5] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Precious metals are expected to see significant price increases, supported by overseas market trends, although high volatility is anticipated due to potential regulatory measures [16] - The energy sector is likely to experience price increases, particularly in crude oil, driven by geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics, despite a general oversupply in the global market [14][15] - Agricultural products, particularly wheat, are gaining attention due to declining inventories and potential for price rebounds, with notable increases in prices for soybean oil and palm oil during the holiday [16] Group 3: Risk Factors and Trading Strategies - The market is expected to open broadly higher with structural differentiation, focusing on rebound opportunities, particularly in precious metals and crude oil [17] - Key risks to monitor include potential gaps in pricing, unusual changes in positions, and liquidity risks, with recommendations for cautious trading strategies [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the Greenland issue, the US and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, leading to a resurgence of risk aversion. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year-on-year, and the economic data in December generally met expectations. Market sentiment was slightly optimistic, the RMB soared to a new high, and the US dollar declined slightly. Non-ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and all fell. Today, Shanghai Aluminum fell, London Aluminum rose, and domestic spot aluminum fell. [4] - Technically, US crude oil tumbled today, while London Aluminum rose slightly and traded around $3,152. Shanghai Aluminum rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom today, closing at 24,090, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum decreased and the positions remained stable, and market sentiment was cautious. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains unclear, the international situation is tense, and market sentiment is neutral. At the same time, the speculation on metals has cooled down slightly, and capital enthusiasm has declined. In the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level. In the future, if copper prices fall, it may drive aluminum prices weaker. At the same time, attention should be paid to the situation of spot demand. [5] Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 24,090, and the spot price was 23,870. The spot price was at a discount of -220 points to the futures price. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to -150 yuan. Supply exceeded demand, and spot trading improved. [4] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, and the alumina inventory increased slightly. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, and the spot demand was poor at the high level in the off-season. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the LME spot price had a premium of $9. Overseas spot demand improved. [4] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Shanghai-London ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.62. The trends of the domestic and overseas markets were generally the same. [4] Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures-Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai-London Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January 13 | 6.9735 | -90 | 10 | 7.76 | | January 14 | 6.9714 | -120 | 22 | 7.66 | | January 15 | 6.9629 | -140 | 17 | 7.68 | | January 16 | 6.9674 | -170 | 1 | 7.68 | | January 19 | 6.9581 | -150 | 9 | 7.62 | [6]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The global futures market is experiencing increased volatility, leading to a growing adoption of futures trading as a risk management tool by enterprises and investors [1] - By 2025, the average daily trading volume in the global futures market is expected to exceed 50 million contracts, with energy futures accounting for 38%, agricultural futures 22%, metal futures 15%, and financial futures 25% [1] - The core value of futures trading lies in price discovery and risk hedging through standardized contracts, with significant applications in various sectors such as cotton, coal, and crude oil [3] Group 2: Technical Requirements - Futures trading demands high system stability, response speed, and data analysis capabilities, particularly for high-frequency trading and arbitrage [4] - A significant portion (78%) of trading losses due to technical failures in 2025 is attributed to system delays or data errors, highlighting the importance of selecting a technologically robust futures company [4] Group 3: Company Profile - Dongwu Futures Co., Ltd. - Dongwu Futures Co., Ltd. is recognized for its comprehensive service capabilities and stable operational strategies, with a registered capital of 1.0318 billion yuan and total assets of 19.016 billion yuan as of August 2025 [5] - The company offers a full range of futures trading services, including cotton, coal, and crude oil futures, with a market share of 15% in cotton futures and a customer coverage rate of 42% in coal futures by 2025 [6] Group 4: Technical Advantages and Risk Control - Dongwu Futures has invested heavily in an intelligent trading platform with microsecond-level response speed, processing over 5 million orders daily [8] - The company has established a comprehensive risk control system, achieving a risk event occurrence rate of only 0.03% in 2025, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.15% [8] Group 5: Industry Recognition and Customer Satisfaction - Dongwu Futures has received multiple accolades, including being rated as an A-class company for five consecutive years and recognized as an "Excellent Member" by major exchanges [9] - The company serves a diverse client base, with over 100,000 individual clients and more than 5,000 institutional clients, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 95% [9]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are slightly lower, while Asian stock markets show mixed performance, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index leading the gains in Asia [1][5] - Japan's cabinet approved a record defense budget exceeding 9 trillion yen (approximately 58 billion USD), contributing to a 0.7% increase in the Nikkei 225 index, closing at 50,750.39 points [6] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged to historical highs, with gold rising by 0.9% to 4,541.80 USD per ounce and silver increasing by 4.5% to 74.90 USD per ounce, briefly surpassing the 75 USD mark [1][5] - The rise in gold prices is partly attributed to market concerns over the prolonged US federal government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which weakened the dollar against other major currencies [1][5] Currency Exchange - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased from 155.83 to 156.25 yen, while the EUR/USD rate slightly declined from 1.1785 to 1.1777 USD [6] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, closing at 3,963.68 points, while the Korean Composite Stock Price Index increased by 0.5% to 4,129.68 points, and the Taiwan Weighted Index surged by 0.7% [3][6] - Thai and Indian stock markets experienced declines [3] Commodity and Cryptocurrency - Crude oil futures saw a slight increase, with WTI rising by 18 cents to 58.53 USD per barrel and Brent up by 15 cents to 61.95 USD per barrel [4][6] - Bitcoin price increased by 2.2%, reaching 89,705 USD [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybean, and their by - products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather in crop - producing areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and macro - economic news both globally and in China. Additionally, it shows the capital flow in the futures market and provides an arbitrage tracking overview. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4150.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 0.27% [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of multiple currency pairs like the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are given. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.44, down 0.12% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For example, for DCE palm oil 2601 in North China, the spot price is 8890, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different regions such as the US Gulf, US West, and Brazil are presented. For example, the CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 250 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 506 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - Brazil will continue to have rainfall this week with temperatures near normal. Different states have different weather patterns, and later in the week, southern Brazil may become drier [5]. - Argentina may have precipitation in the next two days, but the weather may turn drier later. If the temperature rises, the weather conditions for corn and soybeans may change significantly [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - CIMB Securities predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons in November due to a 10% month - on - month decline in exports, and production is expected to fall by 8.0% month - on - month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [7]. - SPPOMA data shows that from November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.16% month - on - month [7]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the global 2025/26 soybean ending stocks in the USDA November report is 124.21 million tons, with a range of 122.5 - 126 million tons, compared to the USDA's September estimate of 123.99 million tons [7]. - Analysts' average prediction for the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.266 billion bushels, with a range of 4.152 - 4.336 billion bushels; the average predicted yield is 53.1 bushels per acre, with a range of 51.7 - 54.0 bushels per acre; and the average predicted ending stocks are 304 million bushels, with a range of 187 - 494 million bushels [8]. - Anec expects Brazil's soybean exports in November to reach 4.26 million tons and soybean meal exports to reach 2.47 million tons, both higher than the previous week [8]. - Secex data shows that Brazil exported 1.1774562 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume 75% higher than that of November last year [8]. - Imea data shows that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 3 - 7 was 459.16 Brazilian reals per ton, lower than the previous week [9]. - As of November 9, 2025/26, the EU's palm oil imports were 1.01 million tons, soybeans imports were 4.15 million tons, and rapeseed imports were 1.31 million tons, all lower than the same period last year [9]. - The EU is considering delaying the implementation of its zero - deforestation law by one year to December 2026 [9]. - Germany's rapeseed industry association predicts that the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 will be between 1.1 - 1.15 million hectares, almost unchanged from 2025 [9]. - On Tuesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell slightly due to a decline in Capesize ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index decreased by 2.2%, while the Panamax ship freight index increased by 1.1% [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 11, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40,000 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous day. The overall oil mill operating rate was 53.51%, a 2.55% decrease from the previous day [12]. - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities was 16.04 yuan per kilogram, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 27.9% year - on - year decrease [12]. - On November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, a 0.01 - point decrease from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, a 0.01 - point increase from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan per kilogram, a 0.1% decrease from the previous day [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7% [14]. - ADP data shows different estimates of private - sector employment changes. One series shows a weekly decrease of 11,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, while another series predicts an increase of 42,000 jobs in October [15]. - The US House Rules Committee will hold a meeting on November 11 (EST) to advance the government funding plan for a vote the next day [15]. - The year - on - year growth rate of US red - book commercial retail sales in the week ending November 3 was 5.9%, higher than the previous value of 5.7% [15]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in October was 98.2, lower than the expected 98.5 and the previous value of 98.8 [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On November 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0866, with a 10 - point increase (yuan depreciation) [17]. - On November 11, the People's Bank of China conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan after 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured [17]. - The PBC's Q3 2025 monetary policy report proposes to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, and improve the monetary policy framework [17]. - The US has suspended the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, which is an important measure to implement the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations [17]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On November 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 2.554 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 5.118 billion yuan, including 795 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 463 million yuan in chemical futures, a net outflow of 622 million yuan in black - series futures, and 4.483 billion yuan in metal futures. Stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.44 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital outflow of 356 million yuan [20]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific information provided in the given text about arbitrage tracking.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 period is expected to reach a record high, with the import volume of eight major oils increasing by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the import increase is the expected 6.1 million - ton rise in global vegetable oil consumption, more than twice that of the previous year. However, vegetable oil prices will still face pressure in 2025/26 [10]. - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy may significantly reduce its exportable palm - oil supply, and the global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil [11]. - The weather in the US and Brazil will have an impact on crop growth and harvesting. In the US, future rainfall may help relieve drought but may also delay crop harvesting; in Brazil, the current dry weather is beneficial for farmers' field operations [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Futures quotes: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4466.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.36% and an overnight decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Currency quotes: The latest prices and percentage changes of the US dollar index and various currencies against the US dollar are provided, including the US dollar index at 98.92 with a 0.05% increase [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices and basis information for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9330, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are provided, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 285 cents per bushel and the CNF quote at 483 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - US soybean - producing states: The future weather (October 28 - November 1) in most of the US soybean - producing states will have temperatures above normal and precipitation above the average. In addition, frost may occur in some areas in the Midwest in the coming days, and precipitation may delay crop harvesting [4][6]. - Brazil: The current dry weather in Brazil is beneficial for farmers' field operations. A new front will bring showers to the southern and central regions this weekend and early next week, which is generally favorable for soybean planting [7][8]. - International Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil: The expected increase in global vegetable oil demand in 2025/26 is mainly due to the strong demand from the biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, traditional exporters may reduce their exports, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy is an unstable factor [10]. - Palm oil in Indonesia: If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will increase, and the exportable supply will decrease significantly [11]. - Soybean: The IGC predicts that the global soybean output in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [12]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity trading volume: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean oil was 11,000 tons, and that of palm oil was 3,600 tons, with a total trading volume of 14,600 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous trading day [16]. - Soybean meal trading and oil - mill operation: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 68.13%, a 0.38% increase from the previous day [16]. - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased. The prices of various agricultural products such as pork, beef, and eggs also changed to different extents [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - Fed rate - cut expectations: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cuts in December is 93.4% [18]. - US economic data: US September existing - home sales totaled 4.06 million units, in line with expectations; the Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index in October was 6, higher than expected [18]. - EU sanctions: The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and has also sanctioned some Chinese and Indian companies. China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [18]. - Domestic News - Exchange rate: On October 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0918, a 36 - point decrease (appreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - Central bank operations: On October 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [20]. - Policy news: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [21]. 05 Capital Flows - On October 23, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 27.536 billion yuan, including 3.42 billion yuan into commodity futures, 24.868 billion yuan into stock - index futures, and a net outflow of 729 million yuan from bond futures [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It details the production, export, and growth conditions of agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans, as well as macro - economic indicators and central bank policies at home and abroad [1][6][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 12 is 4369.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.41% and an overnight decrease of 1.64% [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9440, with a basis of 80 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **CNF Quotes**: CNF quotes and CNF premium changes of imported soybeans from different regions are given. The CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 485 dollars per ton, with a premium of 295 cents per bushel [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook (September 27 - October 1) in major US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally higher and precipitation is generally lower [3]. 3.2 International Supply and Demand - **Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions have different statistics on palm oil exports, with ITS showing an 8.7% increase, AmSpec an 8.3% increase, and SGS a 16.1% decrease [6]. - **Soybeans**: As of the week of September 21, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the expected 62%. The export inspection volume for the week of September 18 was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the expected range. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year [6][7]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Oil and Meal Trading**: On September 22, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 15,234 tons, a 177% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.66 tons, an increase of 6.75 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 69.32%, up 1.77% from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 8.79% week - on - week, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. As of September 22, the port inventory of imported soybeans decreased by 14.343 tons week - on - week [11][12][13]. - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's imports of palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed all had different degrees of change compared to the previous month and the same period last year [12][13]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: As of September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased compared to last Friday. The prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens also increased [14]. 04 Macro - news 4.1 International News - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3% [16]. - **Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone's September consumer confidence index preliminary value was - 14.9, better than expected [16]. 4.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Central Bank Operations**: On September 22, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (yuan appreciation). The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 26.05 billion yuan [18]. - **LPR**: The central bank kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [18]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 22, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 5.146 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 9.919 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 5.003 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital inflow of 209 million yuan [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including overnight and spot market conditions, weather forecasts, international supply - demand situations, domestic market trading data, macro - economic news, and capital flows. It shows the complex interactions among different factors such as weather, policy, and economic indicators that influence the commodity market [1][2][9][14][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various commodities are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Also, currency exchange rates and their changes are provided [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are shown [2]. - Import soybean CNF quotes and CNF premiums in different regions are presented [4]. Weather Forecast - US soybean - producing states' weather from July 21 - 25 will have rainfall and temperatures close to or higher than normal. Most areas in the US Midwest have favorable weather with good soil moisture, which is beneficial for corn and soybean pollination [5][7]. International Supply - Demand - Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06% from July 1 - 15, 2025, while exports decreased by 22.18% compared to the same period last month [9]. - AI is being used to transform the palm oil industry in Malaysia, improving oil extraction rates, increasing uptime, and reducing labor dependence [10]. - India plans to increase domestic palm oil production to 230 million tons by 2029 [10]. - A private exporter reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export sale to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 delivery [10]. - Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided [11]. - Argentina's soybean sales and export registration data are presented [12]. - Ukraine imposes a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans, and its rapeseed production forecast for 2025/2026 is given [12][13]. - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - month high [13]. Domestic Market Trading - On July 16, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The oil mill operating rate increased [14]. - Agricultural product wholesale price indices and prices of pork and eggs are reported [14]. Macro - Economic News - International news includes Fed interest rate probabilities, US industrial output, PPI, mortgage application, and strategic oil reserve data, as well as Indonesia's central bank interest rate cut [16][17]. - Domestic news includes the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and China's central bank's reverse - repurchase operations [18]. Capital Flows - On July 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 14.421 billion yuan, with details on different types of futures [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.