Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw a majority of contracts decline, with red dates dropping over 3% and low-sulfur fuel and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index falling over 2% [2] - On the upside, lithium carbonate, rapeseed, iron ore, and industrial silicon all increased by more than 1% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for soybean meal is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. In the short term, the futures market is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, there may be an opportunity for the futures market to strengthen [3]. - The downside space for rapeseed meal is also limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the weak adjustment of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the development of China - Canada trade policies [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The new - crop US soybean yield is expected to be optimistic, and the export demand is expected to be bearish. The CBOT soybean is expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the guidance of the August USDA report and the subsequent China - US trade progress [16]. - This week, the US soybean price fluctuated. The new - crop US soybean has a relatively high good - quality rate, and the export demand is expected to be pessimistic, which further suppresses the CBOT soybean price. The good - quality rate in the US soybean producing area decreased slightly to 69% this week, and the yield is still optimistically expected. The CBOT soybean price is expected to continue the weak trend [17]. - The US soybean export sales and inspection data show that the 24/25 new - crop export net sales increased counter - seasonally to 468,000 tons, and the 25/26 new - crop export net sales are at a low level in the same period [18]. 2. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The near - month Brazilian soybean premium has a strong upward trend, and the procurement progress for the October shipment has increased. The South American soybean export is expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade policy changes [27]. - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 78%. Argentina has permanently reduced the export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products, which is expected to increase the sales enthusiasm of Argentine farmers [28]. 3. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - The non - commercial net long positions and their proportions of CBOT soybeans and soybean meal as of July 29, 2025, are presented in the report [43][49][51]. 4. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed - producing area has improved, and the EU's rapeseed yield is expected to be good. The global rapeseed supply - demand contradiction in 2025/26 is expected to be limited, but attention should be paid to the implementation of production and the development of China - Canada trade relations [54][55]. - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.8% week - on - week to 55,100 tons. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.7 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous forecast [56]. 5. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In July, the arrival of soybeans in China remained at a high level, and the supply pattern of soybean meal continued to be loose, with the spot basis remaining weak. The soybean meal futures market fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot price followed the increase. The cost of imported soybeans is strongly supported, but the market is still worried about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [66][67]. - China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.818 million tons or 18.4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans in domestic oil mills in August is about 10.6925 million tons, and the procurement progress for August and September shipments is 100% [68]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed consumption improved. As of August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2599 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.36%. The estimated soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week (August 2 - 8) is 2.213 million tons, and the operating rate is 62.21% [86]. - The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation expectation continues. The rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory decreased [98]. - As of August 6, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 3.0446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9024 million tons. The spot trading volume was 350,400 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 2.6942 million tons [102].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the Chinese government to impose a 100% tariff on canola oil and meal from Canada has led to significant price increases in domestic canola futures, with canola meal, oil, and seeds rising by 6.01%, 5.07%, and 8.3% respectively [1] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new tariffs will increase the import cost of Canadian canola meal by 100%, likely halting imports from Canada and reducing domestic supply by 30% to 50% [3][5] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has raised the minimum trading volume for canola meal futures contracts, indicating increased market volatility [3] - The tariff decision is a response to Canada's previous tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, highlighting ongoing trade tensions [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2024, China is expected to import 275 million tons of canola meal, with 201.03 million tons (74%) coming from Canada, indicating a high dependency on Canadian imports [4] - The reduction in canola meal supply may lead to increased domestic production of canola seeds to fill the gap, as well as a potential rise in global canola procurement [6] - The current canola meal inventory in China is around 600,000 tons, which may limit price increases despite the supply shortage [6] Group 3: Price Relationships and Alternatives - The price of soybean meal is currently at 2,937 yuan/ton, while canola meal is at 2,611 yuan/ton, suggesting a price gap that may lead to increased substitution of soybean meal for canola meal [6] - Canola meal is a crucial protein source in aquaculture feed, comprising over 30-40% of total consumption, indicating a strong demand that cannot be easily replaced by soybean meal [7] - The sudden imposition of tariffs is expected to raise canola meal prices, which will subsequently increase feed costs and impact the aquaculture industry [7]