Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for soybean meal is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. In the short term, the futures market is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, there may be an opportunity for the futures market to strengthen [3]. - The downside space for rapeseed meal is also limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the weak adjustment of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the development of China - Canada trade policies [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The new - crop US soybean yield is expected to be optimistic, and the export demand is expected to be bearish. The CBOT soybean is expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the guidance of the August USDA report and the subsequent China - US trade progress [16]. - This week, the US soybean price fluctuated. The new - crop US soybean has a relatively high good - quality rate, and the export demand is expected to be pessimistic, which further suppresses the CBOT soybean price. The good - quality rate in the US soybean producing area decreased slightly to 69% this week, and the yield is still optimistically expected. The CBOT soybean price is expected to continue the weak trend [17]. - The US soybean export sales and inspection data show that the 24/25 new - crop export net sales increased counter - seasonally to 468,000 tons, and the 25/26 new - crop export net sales are at a low level in the same period [18]. 2. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The near - month Brazilian soybean premium has a strong upward trend, and the procurement progress for the October shipment has increased. The South American soybean export is expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade policy changes [27]. - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 78%. Argentina has permanently reduced the export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products, which is expected to increase the sales enthusiasm of Argentine farmers [28]. 3. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - The non - commercial net long positions and their proportions of CBOT soybeans and soybean meal as of July 29, 2025, are presented in the report [43][49][51]. 4. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed - producing area has improved, and the EU's rapeseed yield is expected to be good. The global rapeseed supply - demand contradiction in 2025/26 is expected to be limited, but attention should be paid to the implementation of production and the development of China - Canada trade relations [54][55]. - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.8% week - on - week to 55,100 tons. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.7 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous forecast [56]. 5. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In July, the arrival of soybeans in China remained at a high level, and the supply pattern of soybean meal continued to be loose, with the spot basis remaining weak. The soybean meal futures market fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot price followed the increase. The cost of imported soybeans is strongly supported, but the market is still worried about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [66][67]. - China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.818 million tons or 18.4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans in domestic oil mills in August is about 10.6925 million tons, and the procurement progress for August and September shipments is 100% [68]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed consumption improved. As of August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2599 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.36%. The estimated soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week (August 2 - 8) is 2.213 million tons, and the operating rate is 62.21% [86]. - The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation expectation continues. The rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory decreased [98]. - As of August 6, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 3.0446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9024 million tons. The spot trading volume was 350,400 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 2.6942 million tons [102].

文/曹萌 3月10日，国内菜系期货早盘纷纷大涨，其中菜粕合约开盘即全线涨停。截至当日收盘，菜油、菜粕 和菜籽等品种的主力合约分别上涨5.07%、6.01%和8.3%。 分析来看，周末我国国务院关税税则委员会决定对原产于加拿大的菜籽油、菜粕等商品加征100%关 税，该决定刺激了菜系期货整体异动。 来源：国务院关税税则委员会 南华期货农产品分析师周昱宇表示，本轮加征关税将使得加拿大菜粕进口成本上升100%，从成本端 考虑可能将不会再由加拿大进口菜粕，而本次限制加拿大菜粕进口会使得国内年度符合交割品条件菜 粕的供应减少30%至50%，且刚性需求下菜粕可能无法完全被豆粕替代。 此外，郑州商品交易所自3月10日当晚夜盘交易起，将菜粕期货2505、2507、2508、2509、 2511及2601合约的交易指令每次最小开仓下单量调整为10手，此前为1手。而在3月9日，郑州商 品交易所发布了风险提示函，"近期影响菜粕、菜油市场的不确定性因素较多，请各会员单位切实加 强投资者教育和风险防范工作，提醒投资者理性参与，合规交易。" 01 菜粕率先反馈 3月8日，作为对加拿大政府从去年开始对中国电动汽车加征100%关税的回应，国务 ...