Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump expressed a desire to reach an agreement with Iran and indicated that further negotiations would take place on February 27, stating dissatisfaction with Iran's performance in nuclear talks [3] - Multiple countries issued security alerts due to escalating tensions, with the U.S. State Department updating travel warnings and authorizing the evacuation of non-emergency personnel from Israel [5] - The Israeli Defense Forces are closely monitoring the situation with Iran and are prepared to ensure the safety of their citizens [5] Military Deployment - The U.S. military has deployed both the "Ford" and "Lincoln" aircraft carriers in the Middle East, with the "Ford" reported to be stationed near Haifa, Israel [7] - Iran's military has warned of a "devastating" response to any U.S. aggression, indicating readiness for potential conflict [7] Market Reactions - Silver prices surged, with a 6.15% increase in spot prices and a 7.77% rise in New York futures [9] - Crude oil prices also saw significant increases, with both WTI and Brent crude futures rising over 3% [9] Agricultural Market Insights - Canola futures experienced a strong increase, with the main contract rising over 4% to 5891 yuan/ton, recovering most of the losses from earlier in the month [10] - Factors contributing to the rise in canola prices include reduced supply forecasts and strong performance of soybean futures, leading to a tightening supply situation [12] - The Chinese government announced adjustments to tariffs on certain Canadian imports, which may impact the canola market positively while also indicating a potential increase in canola meal imports [13]

Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump has not made a final decision regarding military action against Iran, expressing a desire for a diplomatic agreement while indicating dissatisfaction with Iran's performance in nuclear negotiations [2] - Multiple countries have issued security alerts due to escalating tensions, with the U.S. updating travel warnings and authorizing the evacuation of non-emergency personnel from Israel [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces are closely monitoring the situation in Iran and are prepared to protect the safety of their citizens [4] Military Deployment - The U.S. has deployed two aircraft carriers, the "Ford" and "Lincoln," in the Middle East, with the "Ford" positioned near Haifa, Israel [5] - Iran has warned of a "devastating" response to any U.S. aggression, indicating that reckless actions could lead to large-scale conflict [5] Market Reactions - Silver prices surged, with a 6.15% increase in spot prices and a 7.77% rise in New York futures [6] - Crude oil prices also saw significant increases, with both WTI and Brent crude futures rising over 3% [6] Agricultural Market Insights - Canola futures experienced a strong increase, with prices rising over 4% to 5891 yuan/ton, recovering much of the losses from earlier in the month [7] - The rise in canola prices is attributed to reduced supply forecasts and strong performance in soybean futures, with significant decreases in import volumes expected for 2026 [9] - Recent policy changes regarding tariffs on Canadian imports are expected to impact the domestic canola market, with potential increases in canola meal imports but mixed effects on canola and canola oil prices [10] - The global canola market is at a critical juncture, with geopolitical factors and policy adjustments influencing supply and demand dynamics [11] - Long-term projections suggest that if Canadian and Australian canola supplies arrive in sufficient quantities, domestic prices may face downward pressure [12]

Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. President Trump has not made a final decision regarding military action against Iran, expressing a desire for a diplomatic agreement while indicating dissatisfaction with Iran's performance in nuclear negotiations [13][15] - Multiple countries, including China, the U.S., and Canada, have issued security alerts and travel warnings for their citizens in the region due to escalating tensions [16][3] - The Israeli Defense Forces are closely monitoring the situation and are prepared to protect their citizens [4][16] Military Movements - The U.S. has deployed two aircraft carriers, the "Ford" and "Lincoln," in the Middle East, with the "Ford" positioned near Haifa, Israel [5][17] - Iran has warned of a "devastating" response to any U.S. aggression, indicating a readiness for potential conflict [5][17] Market Reactions - Silver prices surged, with a 6.15% increase in spot prices and a 7.77% rise in futures contracts [6][18] - Oil prices also saw significant increases, with WTI and Brent crude futures rising over 3% [6][18] Agricultural Commodities - Canola futures experienced a strong rally, with prices rising over 4% to 5891 yuan per ton, recovering much of the losses from earlier in the month [9][18] - The tightening supply of canola is attributed to reduced imports and strong performance in related commodities like soybean futures [21][9] - Recent policy changes regarding tariffs on Canadian imports may impact the domestic canola market, with potential increases in canola meal imports expected [22][10]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of various commodity futures, highlighting significant fluctuations in indices and specific commodities [1][2] Group 2 - The European shipping index futures have decreased by 3.67% [1] - Tin has seen a continuous increase of 3.42% [1] - Rapeseed has increased by 3.28% [1] - Silver has risen by 3.10% [1] - Styrene has experienced a continuous decline of 2.66% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of China increasing its procurement of US soybeans has driven up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, there is an increasing pressure of long - term supply. On the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump stated that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, with the cumulative export of 34.29 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.33 million tons. StoneX estimated that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January estimate and 13 million tons more than the previous year. As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The USDA predicted in January that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores of various indicators such as the price difference between US soybeans 3 - 5, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal were analyzed. It was expected that the price of protein meal would continue to fluctuate in the short term [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommended waiting and seeing [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: Provided the historical price trends of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22] - **Basis of the Main Contract**: Presented the historical basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: Showed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - September contracts and the rapeseed meal May - September contracts from 2205/2209 to 2605/2609 [27][28] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Displayed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May contracts and the soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September contracts from 2022 to 2026 [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39] - **Weather Conditions**: Compared the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same period of the year and summarized the precipitation and temperature anomalies in the main soybean - producing areas as of February 4 [42][44][45] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Showed the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the current and next - year market - year export volumes to China, and China's monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds from 2021 to 2025 [53][54][56] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Presented the historical crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [62][63] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Displayed the monthly export volumes and export volumes to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2022 to 2026 [65][66][68] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory Situation**: Showed the historical inventory trends of soybean ports and major oil mill rapeseeds from 2022 to 2026 [76][77] - **Protein Meal Inventory Situation**: Presented the historical inventory trends of coastal major oil mill soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [79][80] - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit**: Displayed the historical pressing profit trends of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - **Protein Meal Consumption**: Showed the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 [86] - **Breeding Profit**: Presented the historical profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising pigs per head and white - feather broiler breeding from 2022 to 2026 [88][89]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw significant gains on January 6, 2026, with major contracts showing widespread increases, particularly lithium carbonate which hit the daily limit [3][7] - Silver futures rose over 7%, while platinum and palladium increased by more than 6% and 5% respectively [3][7] - Other commodities such as tin, copper (both domestic and international), and nickel saw increases exceeding 4%, while PVC, aluminum, methanol, and apples rose over 3% [3][7] Group 2 - On the downside, plywood futures fell by more than 1%, with slight declines observed in coke and logs [3][7] - Specific contract details include lithium carbonate at 137,940 with an increase of 8.99%, and silver at 19,452 with a rise of 7.06% [4][8] - Other notable increases include contracts for platinum at 616.80 (up 6.02%) and palladium at 471.90 (up 5.16%) [4][8]

Group 1 - The overall oilseed market in China is experiencing a situation of ample supply and slow inventory reduction, with high soybean stocks at ports and increasing operating rates at oil mills [1] - The accumulation of soybean meal inventory is notable, while the volume of unfulfilled contracts from downstream has significantly decreased, leading to a cautious purchasing sentiment in the market [1] - Total oil inventory continues to rise, with soybean oil and palm oil being the main contributors to the increase, while canola oil inventory has slightly decreased [1] Group 2 - On October 29, domestic futures saw more increases than decreases, with the European shipping index rising over 5%, coking coal up over 3%, and the CSI 500 and eggs rising over 2% [2] - In contrast, canola and canola oil fell over 2%, while palm oil and fuel oil dropped over 1% [2]

Core Insights - The shipping index in the European futures market has increased by 3.58% [1] - Canola futures have decreased by 2.93% [1] - Butadiene rubber futures have decreased by 2.39% [1] - Palm oil futures have decreased by 2.22% [1] - Soybean oil futures have decreased by 2.08% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw a majority of contracts decline, with red dates dropping over 3% and low-sulfur fuel and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index falling over 2% [2] - On the upside, lithium carbonate, rapeseed, iron ore, and industrial silicon all increased by more than 1% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The downside space for soybean meal is limited, with support at the [2850] price level for the m2509 contract. In the short term, the futures market is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, there may be an opportunity for the futures market to strengthen [3]. - The downside space for rapeseed meal is also limited, with support at the [2500] price level for the RM509 contract. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the weak adjustment of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm and the development of China - Canada trade policies [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. US Soybean Supply and Demand - The new - crop US soybean yield is expected to be optimistic, and the export demand is expected to be bearish. The CBOT soybean is expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the guidance of the August USDA report and the subsequent China - US trade progress [16]. - This week, the US soybean price fluctuated. The new - crop US soybean has a relatively high good - quality rate, and the export demand is expected to be pessimistic, which further suppresses the CBOT soybean price. The good - quality rate in the US soybean producing area decreased slightly to 69% this week, and the yield is still optimistically expected. The CBOT soybean price is expected to continue the weak trend [17]. - The US soybean export sales and inspection data show that the 24/25 new - crop export net sales increased counter - seasonally to 468,000 tons, and the 25/26 new - crop export net sales are at a low level in the same period [18]. 2. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - The near - month Brazilian soybean premium has a strong upward trend, and the procurement progress for the October shipment has increased. The South American soybean export is expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade policy changes [27]. - Brazil's soybean export sales are close to 78%. Argentina has permanently reduced the export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products, which is expected to increase the sales enthusiasm of Argentine farmers [28]. 3. CFTC Soybean and Soybean Meal Positions - The non - commercial net long positions and their proportions of CBOT soybeans and soybean meal as of July 29, 2025, are presented in the report [43][49][51]. 4. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - The precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed - producing area has improved, and the EU's rapeseed yield is expected to be good. The global rapeseed supply - demand contradiction in 2025/26 is expected to be limited, but attention should be paid to the implementation of production and the development of China - Canada trade relations [54][55]. - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.8% week - on - week to 55,100 tons. The Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.7 million tons, a 5% decrease from the previous forecast [56]. 5. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - In July, the arrival of soybeans in China remained at a high level, and the supply pattern of soybean meal continued to be loose, with the spot basis remaining weak. The soybean meal futures market fluctuated strongly this week, and the spot price followed the increase. The cost of imported soybeans is strongly supported, but the market is still worried about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [66][67]. - China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.818 million tons or 18.4%. The estimated arrival of soybeans in domestic oil mills in August is about 10.6925 million tons, and the procurement progress for August and September shipments is 100% [68]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed consumption improved. As of August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2599 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.36%. The estimated soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week (August 2 - 8) is 2.213 million tons, and the operating rate is 62.21% [86]. - The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation expectation continues. The rapeseed inventory increased slightly, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory decreased [98]. - As of August 6, the total national soybean meal trading volume was 3.0446 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9024 million tons. The spot trading volume was 350,400 tons, and the far - month basis trading volume was 2.6942 million tons [102].