1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

研究报告 股指周报 先抑后扬，9 月股指期货市场震荡上行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 | 月 | 10 | 9 | 日星期四 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 9 月股票市场走出先扬后抑走势，总体呈现震荡上行态势， 三大指数月线均收涨，其中创业板指本月累计涨超 12%创三年 多新高，科创 50 指数涨超 11%创近四年新高。 9 月国内股指期货市场整体震荡上行。IC 走势较强，具体 主力期货合约数据如下： | | 品种 | | 合约代码 | 9 月 | 30 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected order of asset performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is coming, providing policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan of financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data in July - August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the expected GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After the decisions at home and abroad, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the over - crowdedness of small - cap funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume declined slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the insufficient liquidity in the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factors [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: In September, the US interest - rate cut cycle restarted, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence increased. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season turned to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the rate of freight decline in September, the changes in the market, and policy dynamics [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The effect of "anti - involution" still exists, the steel mills' restocking is obvious, and the prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, and port ore inventory changes [7]. - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supported by the peak - season expectation, the futures price recovers from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the spot price will rise significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, and the price is driven by the glass market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper and Alumina**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is volatile upward. The alumina price is under pressure due to weak spot and inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment for copper is volatile upward and for alumina is volatile, with different focus points such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro changes and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead decreases, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on supply disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining makes the nickel price highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by costs, the price rises significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is high and volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply continues to increase, suppressing the price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, supply, and new technologies [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns re - emerge, and supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The chemical demand weakens, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt - fuel oil spread declines rapidly. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the price rises. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of over - reaction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is affected by long - term inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand situation weakens. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more enterprise production cuts, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders improve slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on downstream yarn mill purchasing and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is short - term replenishment, but the medium - long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The spread with PP fluctuates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic macro factors [9]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price declines. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Driven by the expected alumina production increase, the price rebounds. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The risk of price fluctuations increases, and attention should be paid to trade policies. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: After the impact of Argentine soybean exports, the price rebounds from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade frictions [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The arrival of raw materials at North China deep - processing plants hits a new low, and the price rebounds slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, macro factors, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: The near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and the reverse spread continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positions are reduced before the holiday, and a wait - and - see attitude is maintained. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The price continues to be weak, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The price fluctuates at a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp is volatile, and the pressure on the 01 contract is more obvious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Downstream orders are weak, and market contradictions are not prominent. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production [9]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on shipment and delivery volumes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Fed's rate - cut will drive a new round of global liquidity easing, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. Liquidity easing trading dominates the market, and the risk of Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to US September non - farm and inflation data released in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - In Q3, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the expected GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in Q4 will increase [6]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may enter a short - term adjustment phase. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. The allocation value of bonds increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and bonds should be allocated equally with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4, with the risk of premature trading of recovery expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, providing policy space for China's rate cuts. The market is dominated by liquidity - easing trading. The risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. Attention should be paid to the impact of rate cuts on the US real economy. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and market expectations for a 25 - bps rate cut are high. Pay attention to US September non - farm and inflation data. Historically, the transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes 2 - 3 months [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Q3 economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in Q4. However, the annual 5% GDP growth target can still be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend continues but slows. The allocation value of bonds increases, and they should be allocated equally with equities. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, with rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery - expectation trading [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence; for stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy; for treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. All are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise with a volatile trend, as the Fed restarted the rate - cut cycle in September and the risk of its independence has increased [7]. - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in Q3 fades and loading is under pressure, it lacks upward momentum and is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline in September and policy dynamics [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the fundamentals still provide support. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Driven by a weak dollar and the fermentation of reverse - invoicing issues, base metals tend to strengthen. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some showing an upward - trending volatility [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the decline of coking coal has affected the chemical industry. Most chemical products are expected to be volatile, with different market logics and influencing factors [9]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil/LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a hot - tracking on September 18, 2025, from the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Variety Lists - The varieties involved include sugar, methanol, butadiene rubber, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures, etc [5] Group 3: Daily Fluctuation and Fund - related Information - The report shows the daily price fluctuations, fund flow directions, fund changes, trading volume changes of various futures varieties [5][6][8] - The top five varieties with daily fund inflows are sugar, methanol, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures, butadiene rubber, and rubber; the top five varieties with daily fund outflows are Shanghai Aluminum, eggs, crude oil, Shanghai Copper, and cotton yarn [11] Group 4: Position - related Information - The report presents the position amount proportion of various futures varieties, such as 11% for CSI 500 Futures, 17% for CSI 1000 Futures, and 12% for Shanghai Gold [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For overseas markets, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18. The market expects a 25bp rate cut, with a small probability of a 50bp cut. US inflation data and the Fed's personnel issues boost the rate - cut expectation [8]. - Domestically, observe the progress of physical work in Q4 and changes in financial market liquidity. Special bond issuance supports infrastructure demand, but there are risks of more funds used for debt reduction. The demand pulse for commodity consumption may be postponed to the end of Q4. Investors should also focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [8]. - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for risk assets. Domestically, as the process of household deposit transfer indicates a rising risk preference, investors are recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, pay attention to the Q4 allocation opportunities of Chinese bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18 is crucial. Market expects rate cuts due to inflation data and personnel issues [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: Special bond issuance supports infrastructure, but there are risks of more funds for debt reduction. The demand for commodity consumption may be postponed. Investors should focus on household deposit transfer and inflation [8]. - **Asset Views**: Improvements in US dollar liquidity benefit risk assets. Domestically, focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets and Q4 Chinese bond allocation opportunities [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to the attenuation of incremental funds [10]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to potential deterioration of option market liquidity [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with concerns about tariff, supply, and monetary policy surprises [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [10]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the rate of freight decline. Short - term judgment is oscillation as the peak season fades and there is no upward driving force [10]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Steel mill profits shrink, and supply - demand is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [10]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production is high, and port inventory slightly increases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors [10]. - **Coke**: Supply increases significantly, and the second - round price cut starts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coking cost, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market is cautious. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand tends to be loose, and the market is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on raw material cost and steel procurement [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is limited upward driving force. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on cost price and overseas quotes [10]. - **Glass**: Supply slightly increases, and expectations are still volatile. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on spot sales [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream inventory is decreasing. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on soda ash inventory [10]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply of recycled copper is tight, and copper prices are strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [10]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [10]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is accumulating, and aluminum prices are falling. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [10]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is accumulating, and zinc prices are weak. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [10]. - **Lead**: Social inventory slightly decreases, and lead prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [10]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory increases significantly, and nickel prices fluctuate widely. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are slightly accumulating, and the market is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [10]. - **Tin**: Inventory in two markets slightly increases, and tin prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand improvement [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, and silicon prices are capped. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The peak - season supply - demand gap is less than expected, and prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [10]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances exist. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [13]. - **LPG**: Valuation has been repaired, and focus on cost - end guidance. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil and overseas propane costs [13]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices are below 3500. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [13]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Production increase is disturbed by geopolitics, and prices first fall then rise. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on geopolitics and crude oil prices [13]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in wide - range oscillations. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on crude oil prices [13]. - **Methanol**: There is a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [13]. - **Urea**: Returns to fundamentals and is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on export and market sentiment [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on coal, oil prices, port inventory, and device commissioning [13]. - **PX**: Fundamental drivers are limited, and prices follow costs. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and demand [13]. - **PTA**: Low inventory - holding willingness and sufficient spot liquidity suppress basis. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil, macro, and demand [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is average, and processing fees are recovering. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on downstream yarn - mill purchases and demand [13]. - **Bottle Chip**: Demand is in the off - season. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [13]. - **Propylene**: Reduction in propane and PL commodity volume boosts prices. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic macro [13]. - **PP**: May find support near previous lows. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment improves, and focus on policy details. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [13]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on expectations, cost, and supply [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices are falling. Short - term judgment is cautious decline, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Focus on the sustainability of the upward trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Prices fall after China - US - Spain talks. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [13]. - **Corn/Starch**: Imported corn increases, and futures prices fall. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand, macro, and weather [13]. - **Pig**: Pig supply is abundant, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [13]. - **Rubber**: Short - term support is strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Continues the oscillatory trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations [13]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are well - supported, and focus on new - cotton purchases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand and inventory [13]. - **Sugar**: The short - term downward space is limited, and prices rebound. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on imports [13]. - **Pulp**: Rebounds after continuous decline, and it's better to wait and see. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [13]. - **Offset Paper**: Lacks upward and downward drivers, and prices oscillate around the listing price. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [13]. - **Log**: New warehouse receipts are registered, and prices oscillate around 800. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on shipment and dispatch volumes [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw a majority of contracts decline, with red dates dropping over 3% and low-sulfur fuel and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index falling over 2% [2] - On the upside, lithium carbonate, rapeseed, iron ore, and industrial silicon all increased by more than 1% [2]