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2026年3月股指期货市场运行报告
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 01:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In March 2026, the domestic stock index futures market weakened overall, with all major futures contracts closing down. Small and medium - cap related index futures declined more significantly than large - cap blue - chip varieties. The market sentiment remained weak throughout the month, and the index futures were under pressure [4]. - The full - bond futures showed a differentiated trend last month. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures declined, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures showed slight increases [5]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose above the critical point, indicating an improvement in the overall business climate [8][11][15]. - The overall market valuation is at a relatively high level, and the valuation pressure of small and medium - cap varieties is more prominent. The high valuation restricts the upward space of the market, and if the performance fails to meet expectations, there will be greater valuation adjustment pressure [33][34]. - The trend of index futures deviates from the repair of the domestic economic fundamentals. The core suppression factors are the high overall valuation and the overseas geopolitical conflicts, which lead to a decline in market risk preference. The size - style differentiation is significant, with small and medium - cap varieties adjusting more than large - cap blue - chip varieties [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: In March, the domestic stock index futures market weakened. The CSI 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,375.8 with a monthly decline of 7.17% (-338.0); the SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,804.0 with a monthly decline of 7.93% (-241.4); the CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 7,425.0 with a monthly decline of 14.12% (-1220.4); the CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,379.4 with a monthly decline of 13.50% (-1152.0) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 111.690 with a monthly decline of 0.38% (-0.43); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 108.400 with a monthly increase of 0.01% (0.010); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 106.025 with a monthly increase of 0.11% (0.120); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.538 with a monthly increase of 0.09% (0.090) [5]. 3.2 Valuation Analysis - As of March 31, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 13.96 times, the quantile was 77.69%, and the PB was 1.44 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.30 times, the quantile was 75.34%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 35.15 times, the quantile was 86.69%, and the PB was 2.42 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.94 times, the quantile was 75.54%, and the PB was 2.55 times [18]. 3.3 Other Data - **Stock - Bond Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond spread. One is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [26]. - **China - Buffett Indicator**: The reasonable valuation range of A - shares is about 70% - 100%. As of March 30, 2026, the "total market value/GDP" was 88.43%, the quantile in historical data was 87.55%, and the quantile in the last 10 - year data was 91.34% [29][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Policy**: The policy maintains a loose tone. The market liquidity environment is stable and loose, and the policy emphasizes the implementation of active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [32]. - **Domestic Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed work and production, and the market activity increased. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing business climate improved, and the comprehensive economic climate returned to the expansion range [32]. - **Overseas Situation**: Geopolitical conflicts continued to ferment, leading to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment, rising commodity prices, and increased production costs for domestic enterprises, which may affect the global supply chain and inflation expectations and disturb the policy rhythm [32]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - **Single - Side Trading**: Be cautious and participate in bottom - fishing. Large - cap blue - chip index futures have a relatively higher safety margin. Pay attention to the layout opportunities after the shock correction. For small and medium - cap varieties, do not blindly chase the high and strictly control the position to prevent volatility risks [35]. - **Arbitrage**: Participate in the spread convergence strategy of going long on IH and short on IM/IC. Pay close attention to the progress of geopolitical conflicts and market style switching signals. If the risk - aversion sentiment continues to rise, the defensive attribute of the large - cap style will be dominant in the short term, and set stop - losses strictly [35]. - **Options**: In the context of expected market volatility, use the covered call strategy to increase the holding income. To prevent the downside risks caused by valuation decline and geopolitical conflicts, consider buying out - of - the - money put options for hedging [35].
东证期货技术分析周报2026年第13周-20260329
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-29 13:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on weekly technical indicator signals, different sectors of commodity and financial futures show various trends. In the commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors have different signals of rising, falling, or oscillation. In the financial futures, stock index futures mostly show bearish signals, while treasury bond futures show an oscillatory trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - Precious metals: Gold shows a bearish signal, and silver shows an oscillatory signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, aluminum shows a bearish signal, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a weekly "umbrella line" but no reversal, a shrinking MACD red column, and a narrowing Bollinger Band [9][10][13] 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coil, coking coal, and manganese silicon show bullish signals, and the rest, including European container shipping, show oscillatory signals. For example, rebar is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a flat weekly line, a MACD death - cross above the zero - axis on the daily line, and the price touching the MA60 [18][19][24] 3.3能源及化工板块 - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show oscillatory signals. In the chemical sector, soda ash, 20 - rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, pulp is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bearish monthly line, weakening upward momentum on the weekly line, and a MACD running below the zero - axis on the daily line [31][32][35] 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean oil, sugar, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, and red dates show bullish signals, soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, corn is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bullish weekly line but a shrinking red column and a MACD green column expanding on the daily line [40][41][45] 3.5股指期货板块 - Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 stock index futures all show bearish signals. For example, IC CSI 500 futures and IF SSE 300 futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [50][51][53] 3.6国债期货板块 - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all show oscillatory signals. For example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [62][63][66]
期货技术分析周报:2026年第12周-20260322
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-22 08:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1] Core Views - Based on weekly technical indicators, in the commodity futures market, most precious metals and non - ferrous metals show bearish signals, while some black and shipping, energy, and agricultural products show bullish signals; in the financial futures market, most stock index futures show bearish signals, and 2 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, with others being volatile [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver in the precious metals sector show weekly bearish signals. In the non - ferrous sector, alumina shows a bullish signal, while most other varieties like nickel, copper, and aluminum show bearish signals, and lead and polysilicon are volatile [9] - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. This week, the price decreased by 3.77%, the weekly MACD red bar contracted, and the daily MACD showed a death - cross signal. Attention should be paid to the support of the MA60 [13] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon in the black and shipping sector show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile; European container shipping is also volatile [18] - The main contract of rebar is expected to be volatile in the short term. The daily MACD shows a bullish arrangement but the red bar is shortening. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough situation between 3130 - 3150 yuan/ton and the support of the MA60 [22] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, etc. show bullish signals; in the chemical sector, plastics, PVC, etc. show bullish signals, while p - xylene, glass, etc. show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [27] - The main contract of pulp is expected to be volatile in the short term. The monthly MACD shows a bearish arrangement, and the weekly price fluctuates between 5000 - 5500 yuan/ton [31] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Logs, soybeans No.2, rapeseed oil, etc. in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while cotton, pigs, and red dates show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [36] - The main contract of corn is expected to be volatile and rising in the short term. The weekly K - line shows a "cross - line" pattern, and the price fluctuates between 2380 - 2420 yuan/ton [41] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The Shanghai 50 futures show a volatile trend, while the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures show bearish signals [47] - The IC CSI 500 futures have short - term downward pressure. The weekly price dropped by 7.97%, and the daily price broke through the MA60 and approached the MA120 [50] - The IF CSI 300 futures still have short - term downward risks. The weekly price dropped by 3.68%, and the daily price broke through the MA120 [53] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures show volatile trends [59] - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The weekly price moved away from the MA60, and the daily price broke through the original volatile range [63] - The TS 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile in the short term. The daily MACD shows a bullish arrangement, and the price runs between the middle and upper rails of the Bollinger Band [66]
股指期货日报-20260319
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 03:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market style differentiation is expected to continue in the short term. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation; the Shanghai 50 Index is expected to be relatively resistant to decline; the small - and medium - cap indexes corresponding to IC and IM are volatile in the short term, but the CSI 500 Index has long - term allocation value and may have structural opportunities after short - term adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - On March 17, 2026, the four major stock index futures contracts on the CFFEX showed a differentiated trend, with large - cap blue - chips being stronger and small - and medium - cap varieties being weaker [2]. - The CSI 300 futures contract opened at 4680.0 points, closed at 4628.8 points, down 33 points, with a trading volume of 72312 lots and a position of 78883 lots, a decrease of 10452 lots from the previous trading day, and the variety position increased by 6776 lots [2]. - The SSE 50 futures contract opened at 2959.8 points, closed at 2962.0 points, up 8.8 points, with a trading volume of 34019 lots and a position of 33412 lots, a decrease of 9337 lots from the previous trading day, and the variety position decreased by 3547 lots [2]. - The CSI 500 futures contract opened at 8193.0 points, closed at 8000.0 points, down 167.2 points, with a trading volume of 72130 lots and a position of 69093 lots, a decrease of 15355 lots from the previous trading day, and the variety position decreased by 8120 lots [2]. - The CSI 1000 futures contract opened at 8203.8 points, closed at 8014.0 points, down 165.2 points, with a trading volume of 109515 lots (the highest among the four varieties) and a position of 100638 lots, a decrease of 14329 lots from the previous trading day, and the variety position increased by 508 lots [3]. 3.2. Analysis of Underlying Index Performance - On March 17, 2026, the four underlying indexes showed a differentiated trend, consistent with the corresponding futures varieties [3]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4637.44 points, down 0.73%. The financial and cyclical sectors in the weights were strong, but other sectors were weak, leading to a decline in the index [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 2963.58 points, up 0.32%. The large - financial sectors such as insurance, banks, and securities led the gains, which was the core support for its strength [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 8016.03 points, down 2.07%. The adjustment of small - and medium - cap weight sectors such as communication, agriculture, and chemicals led to a significant decline in the index [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 8019.86 points, down 2.33%. The general adjustment of small - and medium - cap growth sectors was the main reason for the index's weakness [4]. 3.3. Short - term Outlook - In the short term, the market style differentiation is expected to continue. The SSE 50 Index corresponding to IH is expected to be relatively resistant to decline due to the defensive properties of large - financial and low - valuation blue - chips and the policy expectations of weight sectors. The CSI 300 Index corresponding to IF is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation due to the differentiation of weight sectors. The small - and medium - cap indexes corresponding to IC and IM are volatile in the short term due to the sentiment of growth sectors, but the CSI 500 Index has long - term allocation value and may have structural opportunities after short - term adjustment [4].
中信期货晨报:商品大部上涨,股指走势分化-20260303
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 01:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are diverging, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. In the US, consumer confidence rebounded in February, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Geopolitical risks pushed up energy and safe - haven premiums. [6] - In China, policy coordination is strengthening, high - frequency consumption is warming, and the real estate market is showing marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active. The real estate market is still at a low level, and the support from infrastructure construction for the black chain is limited. [6] - Asset allocation should focus on structure. If the war does not expand and energy production and transportation are not affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages. Otherwise, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are over - allocated, bonds are neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black sector is under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission of oil prices. [6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: In February, US consumer confidence rebounded, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Geopolitical risks related to policy discussions and the Middle East situation pushed up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation is "growth not stalling, with rising policy and geopolitical risks". [6] - **Domestic Macro**: In February, fiscal and monetary injections were higher than seasonal, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active. The real estate market is still at a low level, and the support from infrastructure construction for the black chain is limited. [6] - **Asset View**: Asset allocation should focus on structure. If the war does not expand, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages. Otherwise, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. [6] 2. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Entering the position adjustment observation period, with concerns about AI easing. Pay attention to incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Stock Index Options**: The option market is trading for medium - to long - term slow growth. Pay attention to option market liquidity, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Institutions are cautious before the Two Sessions, and the bond market has declined. Pay attention to the implementation of monetary policy, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] 3. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, pushing up the safe - haven premium of gold. Pay attention to US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Silver**: The safe - haven premium has pushed up precious metals, and the shortage of silver in the spot market continues. Pay attention to US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 4. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Geopolitical tensions are high, and there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market. Pay attention to geopolitical events, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East situation, and the opening of the spot market, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 5. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: After the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments remain high, and arrivals have decreased slightly. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises' shipments are accelerating, and inventory pressure is acceptable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and downstream replenishment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Coking Coal**: Production has basically recovered, and the market is fluctuating widely. Pay attention to coal mine复产, Mongolian coal imports, and downstream replenishment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Silicon Iron**: The enthusiasm for long positions remains high, and the market continues to be strong. Pay attention to changes in raw material costs and fluctuations in factory start - up rates, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Manganese Silicon**: Costs are strong, and the market continues to rise. Pay attention to manganese ore price adjustments and factory production control trends, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Glass**: There is an expectation of increased supply, and prices are fluctuating downward. Pay attention to spot sales, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Soda Ash**: Inventories have been accumulating after the Spring Festival, and prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to soda ash inventories, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] 6. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and copper prices are at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, domestic policy stimulus, Fed policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Alumina**: The expectation of production cuts is in a game with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to disturbances in Guinea, domestic ore policies, and alumina factory production cuts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased supply concerns, and aluminum prices are rising. Pay attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Zinc**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to high - level fluctuations in zinc prices. Pay attention to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Lead**: Geopolitical conflicts have disrupted the market, and lead prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to supply disruptions and rapid weakening of demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Nickel**: High inventory levels are suppressing the market, and the market is fluctuating. Pay attention to unexpected changes in macro and geopolitical situations, Indonesian policies, and unexpected shortfalls in supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are strong, and the stainless - steel market is rising. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and unexpected increases in demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Tin**: Supply concerns remain, and tin prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery and unexpected increases in supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has increased, and silicon prices are under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side, policy changes, and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Polysilicon**: Inventories are continuously accumulating, and polysilicon is temporarily under pressure. Pay attention to policy changes, unexpected production cuts on the supply side, and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Concerns about demand expectations have led to a correction in lithium carbonate prices. Pay attention to unexpected increases in demand, supply disruptions, and fluctuations in macro sentiment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Platinum**: Geopolitical risks have rapidly increased, and platinum price fluctuations may significantly intensify. Pay attention to unexpected increases in production in major producing areas and unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Palladium**: The spot market is continuously in short supply, and prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to unexpected increases in production in major producing areas and unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations dominate oil prices, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is widening. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **LPG**: Geopolitical situations dominate the rhythm, and import costs are rising. Pay attention to crude oil prices, refinery start - up rates, and PDH demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium of asphalt is being released. Pay attention to sanctions and supply disruptions, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has increased significantly due to the US - Iran conflict. Pay attention to geopolitics and crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has risen sharply following crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitical situations, methanol is volatile and bullish. Pay attention to macro - energy, the Middle East situation, and actual overseas production stoppages, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Urea**: There is both demand support and policy guidance, and urea is fluctuating and consolidating. Pay attention to coal market conditions, downstream replenishment rhythms, and commercial storage and release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The futures price has reached the daily limit, and the short - term price is strong due to the resonance of cost and supply - demand. Pay attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port arrival rhythms, the Iranian geopolitical situation, and Strait of Hormuz passage, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PX**: Geopolitical situations have pushed up chemical product prices. Under the situation of reduced supply and increased demand, PX profitability remains strong. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, unexpected shortfalls in downstream polyester resumption, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PTA**: Market sentiment has been further fermented by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the spot profit of PX has been significantly compressed. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, unexpected shortfalls in downstream polyester resumption, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Short - Fiber**: Cost support is significant, and the spot market is relatively slow. Wait for downstream transmission. Pay attention to the purchasing rhythm of downstream spinning mills, demand changes around the Spring Festival, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Bottle Chip**: Crude oil and upstream raw materials have strengthened significantly, driving the downstream trading atmosphere to warm up. Pay attention to the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production reduction targets, shipping costs, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Propylene**: The raw material end has provided significant support, and PL has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PP**: The raw material end, including crude oil, methanol, and propane, has provided support, and PP has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Plastic**: The raw material end has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened. Pay attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Styrene**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, styrene is volatile and bullish. Pay attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and PVC should be viewed with caution. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda should be put on hold for the time being. Pay attention to market sentiment, start - up rates, and demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Fats and Oils**: Crude oil prices have skyrocketed, and fats and oils are volatile and bullish. Pay attention to rapeseed trade, biodiesel, Malaysian palm oil production and demand, and South American weather, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Protein Meal**: The two types of meal have short - term technical adjustment pressure. Pay attention to US soybean planting areas, customs policies, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Corn**: Market sentiment has heated up, and both futures and spot prices are rising. Pay attention to demand, the macro - situation, and weather, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Pig**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and pig prices are falling. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [9] 8. Agriculture - **Natural Rubber**: It has risen following market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the previous high - level pressure. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - level changes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The entire sector has risen significantly, driving synthetic rubber prices up. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Cotton**: It has entered a correction phase. Pay attention to production and demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Sugar**: Sugar prices may rebound slightly in the short term, but the medium - to long - term expectation is volatile and bearish. Pay attention to lower - than - expected production in the Northern Hemisphere, macro - economic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Pulp**: The spot market is not strong, and pulp futures are bearish. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Double - Glued Paper**: Demand has not started after the Spring Festival, and double - glued paper is fluctuating. Pay attention to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill start - up dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Log**: Trading is light, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Pay attention to shipment volumes and shipping volumes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9]
2026年2月股指期货市场运行报告
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2026-03-02 07:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the domestic stock index futures market showed an overall oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation. After the Spring Festival, the market's trading activity rebounded significantly, and the small and medium - cap index futures continued to be strong. The bond futures all closed higher last month. In March, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation with structural opportunities, and the volatility may rise compared to February. The small - cap style may still have a relative advantage, but risks such as short - term over - rise and style switching due to geopolitical conflicts need to be watched out for [5][7][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, the domestic stock index futures market showed an oscillating upward trend with structural differentiation. Before the Spring Festival, trading was light, and after the Spring Festival, trading activity rebounded. The small and medium - cap index futures (IC, IM) were strong, while the large - cap blue - chip futures (IF, IH) were weak. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures rose significantly, and the SSE 50 index futures fell slightly. All bond futures closed higher last month [5][6][7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The first, second, and third - industry added values increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. The average annual urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, and the year - end rate was 5.1%. The total number of migrant workers was 301.15 million, a 0.5% increase. The CPI was flat compared to the previous year, while the PPI, PPIRM, and agricultural product producer prices decreased by 2.6%, 3.0%, and 3.7% respectively [8][9][13] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of February 27, the PE and PB of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were provided, along with their respective percentile positions. The overall valuation of the market was at a relatively high historical level, and the small - cap index futures had more prominent valuation pressure [14] 3.4 Other Data - The concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond spread were introduced. The "Buffett Indicator" was mentioned, and as of February 27, 2026, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 93.20%, with a high percentile position in historical and recent 10 - year data [25][28][29] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - At the macro - level, the policy is in a loose tone, and the US - Iran conflict has become a new variable. At the valuation level, the overall valuation is high, and the small - cap valuation pressure is more prominent. In March, the market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation with structural opportunities, and the small - cap style may still have an advantage, but risks need to be watched out for [31][32] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For unilateral trading, participate cautiously and lay out on dips. For small - cap index futures, pay attention but do not chase highs. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on IH and short on IM with strict stop - losses. For options, use the covered call strategy to increase returns and buy out - of - the - money put options for hedging [33]
中信期货晨报:国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半,基本金属涨幅居前-20260227
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].
中信期货晨报20260226:国内商品期市收盘多数上涨,基本金属涨幅居前-20260226
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-26 02:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher on February 25, 2026, with base metals leading the gains [1]. - The A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival, but the slope will be slower than in January, pricing in the warm Spring Festival consumption and technology event hotspots. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate after the festival [16]. - The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The US GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all showed varying degrees of increase on February 25, 2026, with the CSI 500 futures having a relatively large daily increase of 1.61% [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures mostly declined on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively large daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index increased by 0.15% on February 25, 2026, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 225 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34 bp on February 25, 2026, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24 bp [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On February 25, 2026, most industries showed an upward trend, with non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals having relatively large daily increases of 3.53%, 4.26%, and 2.37% respectively. The consumer services and media industries declined, with decreases of 0.52% and 0.92% respectively [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On February 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14%, NYMEX natural gas decreased by 2.94%, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 4.75% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold decreased by 1.25% on February 24, 2026, while CONEX silver increased by 0.57% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME tin, etc. showed different trends on February 24, 2026. For example, LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and other agricultural products also had different price changes on February 24, 2026. For example, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.05% [8]. Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, with the cross - regional passenger flow in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season reaching 5.08 billion person - times, a record high. However, real estate sales were at a seasonal low, and the social financing in January started steadily. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the social financing data needs to be observed in combination with January - February data [16]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, personal consumption was the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies may support the prices of gold and silver in the short term. The crude oil market is dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, and the A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate, and the RMB may continue to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; stock index options are expected to be volatile; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are all expected to be volatile [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Many non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [17]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. are expected to be volatile [19]. - **Agriculture**: Many agricultural products such as cotton, natural rubber, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend, while sugar is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker [19].
股指期货春节前市场回顾与后市展望
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2026-02-24 03:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The post - holiday A - share market will face a mixed situation. Supportive factors include robust consumption data, frequent industrial hotspots, and a warming overseas market, while disturbing factors are the huge post - holiday capital withdrawal pressure and uncertainties in US tariff policies. It is expected that the A - share market will show a relatively strong oscillation after the holiday, with structural opportunities likely concentrated in growth sectors such as AI and robotics with industrial catalysts. Investors should be flexible in operation and wait for the layout window after the capital pressure eases [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On February 13, the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.28% to 14100.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.57% to 3275.96 points. Most industry sectors declined, with the shipbuilding and aerospace sectors rising against the trend, and photovoltaic equipment, small metals, and other sectors leading the decline. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7]. - Last week, treasury bond futures showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had weekly returns of 0.24%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and - 0.01% respectively, with closing prices of 112.840 yuan, 108.505 yuan, 105.975 yuan, and 102.436 yuan [8]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market closed down collectively. The CSI 300 futures (IF) fell 0.23% to 4627.0, the SSE 50 futures (IH) dropped 0.53% to 3020.0, while the CSI 500 futures (IC) rose 1.94% to 8274.8, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) increased 2.48% to 8189.0 [10]. Fundamental Analysis - The central government's No. 1 document this year aims to build agriculture into a modern large - scale industry, with efforts from three aspects: integrating agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; connecting production, processing, and sales; and integrating agriculture, culture, and tourism [11]. - On February 24, the latest values of the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR will be announced. As of January 20, 2026, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged for the 8th consecutive month [11]. - US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad - valorem import tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, which may be raised to 15%. The US government also announced exemption ranges [11]. - The new round of negotiations between the US and Iran ended without easing the situation. The US is tightening the "time - table", and the situation remains uncertain [11]. - After the Spring Festival holiday, a total of 2252.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market in the first week, with 1452.4 billion yuan, 4000 billion yuan, and 4000 billion yuan maturing on February 24, 25, and 26 respectively. Additionally, 3000 billion yuan of MLF and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on February 25 [11]. Valuation Analysis - As of February 13, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 14.01 times, with a quantile of 80.2%, and the PB was 1.48 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.51 times, with a quantile of 80.59%, and the PB was 1.27 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 37.55 times, with a quantile of 87.84%, and the PB was 2.58 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 50.18 times, with a quantile of 82.94%, and the PB was 2.68 times [14]. - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26]. China - Buffett Index - On February 13, 2026, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 91.18%. The quantile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 91.04%, and in the last 10 - year data, it was 94.78% [30]. Comprehensive Analysis - In the week from February 9 to 13, the market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with significant differentiation in stock index futures. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 futures rose, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures fell slightly. The trading volume decreased daily, and the trading volume on the last trading day before the holiday was less than 2 trillion yuan [30][32]. - Pre - holiday factors dominated the market rhythm, with a decline in trading activity and a release of risk - aversion sentiment. After previous adjustments, the valuation quantiles of major broad - based indexes have declined, providing a certain safety margin for the post - holiday market. During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic consumption data was robust, industrial hotspots emerged, but there was a large - scale capital withdrawal pressure after the holiday. Overseas, the US stock market rose, the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated, but the uncertainty of US tariff policies increased [33]. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral trading: Consider buying on dips during the oscillation, but pay attention to the post - holiday capital withdrawal pressure and control the position. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the IM/IH spread convergence strategy, but be alert to style - switching signals. - Options: Use covered call writing to increase holding returns and consider buying out - of - the - money put options to hedge against post - holiday uncertainties [35].
基差统计表-20260213
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 13:17
Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 13, 2026 [2] - **Data Source**: Wind Financial Terminal, Steel Union Data Terminal [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the document. 2. Core View The document mainly presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on February 13, 2026, including the basis rate changes, spot prices, and futures contract prices of multiple commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, the spot price is 102,040, and the settlement price of the main contract is 102,680. The basis decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous day [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.10%, the spot price is 23,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 23,610 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.45%, the spot price is 24,480, and the settlement price of the main contract is 24,590 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 0.99%, the spot price is 16,575, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,740 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.37%, the spot price is 391,650, and the settlement price of the main contract is 393,120 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, the spot price is 140,780, and the settlement price of the main contract is 140,320 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 11.31%, the spot price is 9,300, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,290 [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.28%, the spot price is 1,126.12, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,129.74 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 4.63%, the spot price is 19,670, and the settlement price of the main contract is 20,626 [3]. Steel - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 5.25%, the spot price is 3,050, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,096 [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, the spot price is 3,218, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,237 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 5.94%, the spot price is 807.3, and the settlement price of the main contract is 762.0 [3]. - Coke (J): The main contract basis rate is - 3.5%, the spot price is 1,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,664.0 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 9.60%, the spot price is 1,227.5, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,120.0 [3]. - Power Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is 0.50%, the spot price is 711.0, and the settlement price of the main contract is 801.4 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.00%, the spot price is 5,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,500 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is 2.07%, the spot price is 5,800, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,842 [3]. - Stainless Steel (SS): The main contract basis rate is 1.29%, the spot price is 14,150, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,975 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 143,450, and the settlement price of the main contract is 147,340 [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.38%, the spot price is 2,223, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,231 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 0.14%, the spot price is 3,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,830 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.48%, the spot price is 5,195, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,220 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 3.04%, the spot price is 6,850, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,648 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 2.04%, the spot price is 7,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,415 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is - 0.03%, the spot price is 6,620, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,616 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 0.24%, the spot price is 6,750, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,734 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is - 3.40%, the spot price is 4,770, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,938 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 16,400, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,450 [3]. - 20 - Standard Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.09%, the spot price is 13,736, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,405 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 4.30%, the spot price is 1,112, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,162 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 1.79%, the spot price is 1,810, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,843 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 2.14%, the spot price is 5,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 4.70%, the spot price is 454.4, and the settlement price of the main contract is 478.1 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, the spot price is 3,148, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,888 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 3,210, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,348 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.89%, the spot price is 3,379, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,355 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 11.17%, the spot price is 4,748, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,447 [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The main contract basis rate is - 11.2%, the spot price is 4,100, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,613 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 9.68%, the spot price is 3,060, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,790 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 8.55%, the spot price is 2,263, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,303 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 5.91%, the spot price is 8,560, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,082 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 9.65%, the spot price is 9,920, and the settlement price of the main contract is 9,047 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 15.78%, the spot price is 9,200, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,938 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 1.34%, the spot price is 8,900, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,782 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 0.86%, the spot price is 2,340, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,320 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 1.48%, the spot price is 2,610, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,642 [3]. - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is - 1.22%, the spot price is 8,209, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,300 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 14.85%, the spot price is 3,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,444 [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract basis rate is 7.02%, the spot price is 12,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 11,540 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.65%, the spot price is 14,790, and the settlement price of the main contract is 14,855 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 5,370, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,254 [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 4,719.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,719.4 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is - 0.11%, the spot price is 3,079.7, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,082.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 8,423.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,448.2 [3].