热点追踪 （2026年1月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪锡 沪深300期货 短纤 不锈钢豆油红枣 菜粕 纤维板 豆二 10豆一粳米年期国债期货鸡蛋玉米 棕榈油 上证沪金50期货苯乙烯 低硫燃料油 橡胶 铁矿石 PVC豆粕 PTA 尿素2玉米淀粉 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 白糖乙二醇菜油沥青 20号胶 沪锌 生猪5年期国债期货 聚丙烯 硅铁焦炭 纯碱 郑棉棉纱热轧卷板 沪铅沪银 烧碱玻璃 30对二甲苯 年期国债期货 LPG 塑料 原油 螺纹钢 锰硅 沪铜国际铜 丁二烯橡胶 集运指数(欧线) 氧化铝 工业硅 纸浆 甲醇 花生 焦煤 沪镍 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 每日成交量变化 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪深300期货 沪锡 红枣 豆油 短纤 不锈钢 棕榈油 上证50期货 纤维板 苯乙烯 沪金 豆一 低硫燃料油 菜粕 10年期国债期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the futures market in the 53rd week of 2025 through technical indicators, showing that different sectors have different trends, with some showing bullish signals, some bearish, and others in a volatile state. The overall market has obvious structural characteristics, and it is recommended to track key indicators and pay attention to position management [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - The gold in the precious metals sector shows a bullish signal, while the rest are volatile. In the non - ferrous metals sector, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, and polysilicon shows a bearish signal, with the remaining varieties mainly volatile [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai copper has a strong upward trend. The weekly and monthly trends resonate, and the short - term possibility of a sharp correction is low [12]. 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coils, iron ore, and coking coal show bullish signals, the rest of the black varieties are volatile, and European line container shipping shows a bearish signal [20]. - The price of the main rebar contract mainly consolidates, with insufficient technical momentum and is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [24]. 3.3能化板块 - Fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and LPG in the energy sector show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile. In the chemical sector, polypropylene, pure benzene, caustic soda, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile [29]. - The PTA main contract has short - term upward repair momentum. If it breaks through the resistance, the medium - term target can be higher [32]. 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean meal, palm oil, rapeseed meal, sugar, corn, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile. The sugar main contract needs to pay attention to the risk of decline, and the short - term rebound is difficult to reverse the downward trend [38][42]. 3.5股指期货板块 - The Shanghai 50 Index futures, CSI 500 Index futures, CSI 1000 Index futures, and SSE Composite 300 Index futures all show a volatile pattern. The IC CSI 500 Index futures are expected to fluctuate next week with upward momentum, and attention should be paid to whether there are reversal signals [49][52]. 3.6国债期货板块 - The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bond futures are volatile. The T 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile, with upward repair power in the short term but also pressure [55][61].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调 ——中信期货晨报20251226 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现金 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 李度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4610.6 | 0.344 | 1.85% | 3.09% | -0.16% | 11729X | | | 上证50期货 | 3034 | 0 23% | 0.92% | 2.53% | 1.51% | 13.29% | | | 中证500期货 | 7320.6 | 1 00 00 % | 3.76% | 7.64% | 0.41% | 28 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 沪金重回千元关口，白银再创历史新高 ——中信期货晨报20251223 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | --- | | | | | THE MAN MET LAND THE THE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周皮涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 | | 今年涨跌幅 | | | 沪深300期货 | 4564.8 | 0.83% | 0.83% | 2.07% | -1.15% | 16.42% | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3018.4 | 0.40% | 0.40% | 2.01% | 0.98% | 12.71% | | | 中证500期货 | 7123. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，铂、钯表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20251218 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4578.2 | 1.75% | 0.09% | 1.61% | -0.86% | 16.76% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 1699. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 大宗商品涨多跌少，黑色、能化表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20251216 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4545.6 | -0.62% | -0.62% | 0.88% | -1.57% | 15.93% | | | 上证50期货 | 2983.8 | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.70% | -0.17% | 11.42% | | | 中证500期货 | 7115.8 | -0.81% | -0.81 4 | 2.034 | -2.39) | 24.99% | | | 中证1000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - environment in the fourth quarter is still friendly to risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: US "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" online sales reached record highs, but consumers preferred daily necessities and more people borrowed short - term debt for shopping. The weak demand dragged down the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December to ease liquidity constraints [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, policy - based financial instruments and special bonds promoted the significant recovery of enterprise investment and recruitment forward - looking indicators. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The construction business activity index also increased. The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is strengthening [6]. 3.2 Asset Views - The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to maintain long - position opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume cannot support an upward attack, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market sentiment is stable, and the volatility is somewhat differentiated. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, and precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policies, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to policy - level dynamics [7]. - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the price on the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, iron - water production, and other factors [7]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply and demand are both weak, and there is limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel tendering [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The cost transfer is not smooth, and inventory accumulates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to cost prices and foreign quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply needs to be reduced. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and there is still an oversupply. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [7]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The expectation of Fed rate cuts is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and the alumina price continues to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may gradually stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: There are environmental disturbances in Indonesian MHP production enterprises, and the nickel price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rebound of the nickel price, the stainless - steel futures market has recovered. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has warmed up, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations, the lithium price has strengthened again. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The import cost has rebounded, and the spot support continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is recovering towards the spot price after an oversold situation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The expected coastal unloading is high, and the inland supply - demand provides phased support. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The off - season storage is progressing steadily, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to enterprise inventory de - stocking and commercial storage progress [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply - demand pattern has not significantly weakened, but expectations are suppressing sentiment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and device disturbances [9]. - **PX**: The short - term cost guidance is limited, and PX has a strong profit under its independent logic. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and US - Asia aromatics blending for oil [9]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new drivers and follows cost fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and downstream polyester load support [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost provides support, but the off - season demand cannot change the short - fiber game pattern. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream yarn factory purchasing rhythm and season conversion [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The price volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has slightly declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and new device commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot is strong, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: The oil price has rebounded, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The liquidity is slightly tight, and styrene is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, PVC is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and caustic soda is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The downward pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The discount of South American soybeans is cost - effective, and attention should be paid to Chinese ship - buying. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The supply - demand game intensifies, and the futures price hits a new high. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply - demand is loose, and the pig price is running weakly. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream buying is light, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is insufficient bullish driving force in the futures market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The concentrated listing of new cotton suppresses the short - term price, but the long - term valuation repair is still expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The downward pressure is increasing marginally. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by shutdown news, the pulp price continues to rise but maintains a wide - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [9]. - **Log**: New Zealand has entered a reduced - shipping stage, and the medium - term supply pressure may ease. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to shipping volume and delivery volume [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Various Futures - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4535.8, down 0.43% daily, up 0.67% weekly and monthly, down 1.78% quarterly, and up 15.68% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2971.4, down 0.50% daily, up 0.28% weekly and monthly, down 0.59% quarterly, and up 10.96% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 6982.2, up 0.11% weekly and monthly, down 4.23% quarterly, and up 22.65% this year. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7239.6, down 0.652 daily, down 0.29% weekly and monthly, down 2.25% quarterly, and up 78.13% this year [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.388, down 0.02% daily, up 0.01% weekly and monthly, up 0.10% quarterly, and down 0.57% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.77, down 0.07% daily, up 0.02% weekly and monthly, up 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.72% this year. The 10 - year treasury bond futures closed at 107.98, down 0.06% daily, up 0.04% weekly and monthly, up 0.42% quarterly, and down 0.87% this year. The 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 113.89, down 0.42% daily, down 0.52% weekly and monthly, up 0.28% quarterly, and down 4.16% this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index was at 99.4081, unchanged daily, down 0.03% weekly and monthly, up 1.62% quarterly, and down 8.35% this year. The EUR/USD was at 1.1609, with 0 pips daily change, 8 pips weekly and monthly change, - 125 pips quarterly change, and 1256 pips annual change. The USD/JPY was at 155.483, with 0 pips daily change, down 0.44% weekly and monthly, down 1.09% this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.48, unchanged daily, down 2 bp weekly and monthly, up 3 bp quarterly, and down 27 bp this year. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.84, up 0.8 bp daily, up 0.3 bp weekly and monthly, down 1.6 bp quarterly, and up 0.2 bp this year. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09, up 7 bp daily and weekly, down 0.02 bp quarterly, and down 46 bp this year [3]. - **Shipping**: The European container shipping line closed at 1534.2, up 2.79% daily, up 4.23% weekly and monthly, down 6.61% quarterly, and down 32.02% this year [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 958.42, down 0.50% daily, up 0.47% weekly and monthly, up 9.31% quarterly, and up 55.18% this year. Silver closed at 13423, up 1.09% daily, up 5.47% weekly and monthly, up 22.61% quarterly, and up 79.69% this year [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 88920, down 0.40% daily, up 1.70% weekly and monthly, up 7.07% quarterly, and up 20.54% this year. Aluminum oxide closed at 2670, down 0.26% daily, down 1.37% weekly and monthly, down 6.90% quarterly, and down 44.34% this year [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy is in a low - speed adjustment range, with consumption showing a K - shaped development and employment cooling. The expectation of interest rate cuts has shifted from "expectation guidance" to "data confirmation". The "Hassett transaction" has strengthened the market's re - evaluation of the future policy framework, and the global financial conditions have improved. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, with the joint promotion of policy - based financial instruments and special bonds, the forward - looking indices of enterprise investment and recruitment have significantly rebounded, and the expectation has improved. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The overall domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is increasing [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - Overall, the overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3.4 View Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as trading volume cannot support an upward attack. Stock index options are expected to move sideways as market sentiment is stable but volatility is differentiated. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as long - end sentiment remains weak [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to move sideways as geopolitical and trade tensions ease, leading to a phased adjustment in precious metals [6]. - **Shipping**: The European container shipping line is expected to move sideways as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward momentum. Steel products are expected to move sideways as the macro - environment is warm and the market is strong [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most products in this sector, such as coking coal, silicon iron, and manganese silicon, are expected to move sideways as the macro - sentiment is warm and the sector shows strong performance [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, aluminum, and lead are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while nickel is expected to fall in a volatile manner. Other non - ferrous metals are mostly expected to move sideways [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PX, PTA, short - fiber, and other products are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fall in a volatile manner. Most other energy and chemical products are expected to move sideways [8]. - **Agriculture**: Pulp is expected to move sideways after a sharp rise, and other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and livestock products have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a sideways or sideways - down trend [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the economic fundamentals show structural improvement, the short - term repair market is insufficient to boost market confidence. The long - term positive trend remains unchanged, but valuation pressure and external uncertainties will restrict the upward space of the index. Investors should be patient and wait for clearer market signals [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In November, the stock index futures market showed an overall volatile and corrective trend, with all major contracts recording monthly declines. Among them, the CSI 500 index futures had the most significant adjustment, followed by the SSE 300 index futures, while the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 index futures were relatively resilient. Specific data for major futures contracts on November 28th: SSE 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,505.8 with a monthly decline of 2.71% (125.6); SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,963.2 with a monthly decline of 1.72% (52.0); CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 6,974.2 with a monthly decline of 3.70% (- 268.2); CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,260.8 with a monthly decline of 1.46% (- 107.4) [5]. - In November, all bond futures declined. On November 28th, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.490 with a monthly decline of 1.60% (- 1.86); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.940 with a monthly decline of 0.43% (- 0.465); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.745 with a monthly decline of 0.32% (- 0.245); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.378 with a monthly decline of 0.12% (- 0.120) [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business levels [7]. - In November, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - In November, the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of November 28th, the PE of the SSE 300 index was 13.94 times, the percentile was 80.2%, and the PB was 1.45 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.83 times, the percentile was 88.43%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 32.03 times, the percentile was 76.47%, and the PB was 2.19 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.44 times, the percentile was 73.33%, and the PB was 2.44 times [15]. 3.4 Other Data - Stock - bond spread: There are two calculation formulas. One is (1/Index static P/E ratio) - 10 - year Treasury bond yield, and the other is 10 - year Treasury bond yield - Index static dividend yield [28]. - China - Buffett indicator: On November 28, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 88.25%. The current "total market capitalization/GDP" was at the 87.44% percentile in historical data and the 91.31% percentile in the past 10 - year data [32]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - Macroeconomically, the official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The high - tech manufacturing PMI has been in the expansion range for 10 consecutive months, indicating continuous economic structural transformation. The non - manufacturing business activity index declined, with the construction industry showing obvious improvement in business levels and significantly improved market expectations [34]. - In terms of valuation, although the market has adjusted, the valuation percentiles of major indices are still at relatively high historical levels. The ratio of total market capitalization to GDP remains high, indicating that the overall market valuation pressure still exists [34]. 3.6 Operation Suggestions - Adopt a neutral approach, pay attention to layout opportunities after market adjustments, and closely monitor subsequent economic data and policy trends. For unilateral trading, consider bottom - fishing but beware of valuation risks; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, consider covered strategies to increase returns [35][36].