生猪产业期现日报 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 240 | 前值 | 张跌 75 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 主力合约基差 | | 165 | | 45.45% | | | 生猪2605 | 11995 | 12040 | -45 | -0.37% | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11560 | 11535 | 25 | 0.22% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -435 | -505 | 70 | 13.86% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 138334 | 142417 | -4083 | -2.87% | | | 仓单 | 90 | 90 | 0 | 0.00% | 主 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11800 | 11700 | 100.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11800 | 11750 | 50.0 | 200 | | | 四川 | 11350 | 11350 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different outlooks. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to rise, and some are expected to decline. For example, protein meal is expected to rise, while sugar is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [2][7][17]. - Multiple factors such as international supply and demand, domestic policies, weather conditions, and macro - economic situations affect the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic import policies all have an impact on the prices of soybeans and related products [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal - **View**: Overnight US soybeans fell, and double - meal reduced positions and made up for the decline. In the short term, it is expected that the futures and spot prices will rise; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the repair of crushing margins [2][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low. The USDA report lowered US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks. US soybean premiums are lower than South American soybeans, and there is no cost - effectiveness. Domestically, the import profit of Chinese soybeans has been repaired, but the import and crushing of the January shipment are still at a loss, and the ship - buying progress is slow. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is seasonally decreasing but still higher than the same period last year [2][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and Dalian meal will fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy at around 3000 - 3050 and hold, without chasing high [3][7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market focuses on US economic data, and the Fed's internal differences in monetary policy have intensified. The USDA report is slightly bearish. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and exports have declined. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel has increased, and the inventory has remained low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: It continues to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, due to the cold weather, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. Although the supply of corn in Jilin has increased, the selling pressure in the Northeast has not been fully realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the State Grain Reserve continues, and the auction of imported corn has a high transaction rate [7][8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when it rebounds to around 2200 [8][9]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply pressure continues, and the pig price runs weakly [9]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow, which may lead to increased slaughter pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of live pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of breeding sows has begun to decline [9]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly. The near - term contracts are under high - production - capacity pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage strategy [9][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It is waiting for a driving force and fluctuating within a range [11][12]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is changeable, and there is no obvious directional driving force in the fundamentals. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, which supports the price to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the near two weeks [12]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - fluctuating and highly elastic trend. In the short term, continue to pay attention to expanding the spread between RU and NR [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The disk has temporarily entered a shock - consolidation stage [14][15]. - **Logic**: It follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and then stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. After the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream enterprises made up for the inventory, and the market stopped falling and consolidated [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are both large. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene appears, the disk is recommended to be shorted when the price is high [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: There is a callback risk in the short term [16][17]. - **Logic**: The USDA November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the expected production of cotton in the United States, China, and Brazil has increased. Domestically, the actual purchase volume of seed cotton has exceeded expectations, and the expected production of new cotton in Xinjiang has increased. The previous bullish factors have been digested, and the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract has a callback risk; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it will fluctuate strongly [17]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The rebound power is weak [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the sugar prices at home and abroad are under downward pressure. In the short term, the export volume of Brazil has decreased, and the domestic import policy is tightened, which provides some support for the domestic market [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - long term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the operating range of sugar prices is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short when the price is high [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures fluctuate at a high level, and the long - dominant pattern remains unchanged [17][18]. - **Logic**: The bullish factors for the previous rise include the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the import cost of broad - leaf pulp, the expected good production and sales of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts for the 01 contract. The bearish factors include the low total demand for softwood pulp, the slow procurement of downstream enterprises, the disturbance of the warehouse - receipt problem, and the lack of strong growth in downstream and terminal consumption [18]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the main force is competing for the warehouse - receipt problem. The pulp futures will mainly fluctuate widely [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: Paper enterprises are supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling [19]. - **Logic**: In the short term, some paper enterprises still have the intention to support prices, but dealers' inventory is rational. The orders of downstream printing factories have not changed much, and the procurement of raw paper is mainly based on rigid demand. The upstream pulp price has increased slightly, which strengthens the cost support for double - glue paper, but the transmission is general [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - glue paper has been launched one after another, and paper factories are enthusiastic about raising prices. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the pulp [21]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, and the logs maintain low - level fluctuations [23]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand will increase in December, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. The purchase intention of traders is suppressed, and the import rhythm depends on the port inventory and international costs. On the demand side, the demand in 2026 is expected to be weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs have no clear contradiction, the spot price is under pressure, and it will fluctuate at a low level recently [23]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 17, 2025**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is not provided in detail. The characteristic index shows that the CITIC Futures Commodity 20 Index is 2555.84, a decrease of 0.42%; the industrial product index is 2228.52, an increase of 0.56%. The agricultural product index is 932.55, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a 5 - day decline of 0.34%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.32% [181][182].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited Chinese demand, expected to fluctuate in a low - range. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, with high soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories. The basis is difficult to improve under supply pressure. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases eases the year - end and Q1 2026 gap, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for large - weight pig slaughter has increased, resulting in both supply and demand growth. Spot quotes are chaotic, and price drops have widened in some areas. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but supply has clearly recovered, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the adjustment of retail farmers' pig weights after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - term bullish funds have withdrawn. The market is expected to fluctuate sideways and follow the spot market with small fluctuations [4]. Edible Oils - For palm oil, due to the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about year - end inventory growth, crude palm oil futures may fall below 4400 ringgit and continue to decline. There is a possibility of seeking support at 4200 ringgit after breaking through the annual support at 4350 ringgit. In the domestic market, there is a risk of domestic palm oil futures following the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially a potential catch - up decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports may lead to a decline in CBOT soybeans, which will drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the market is quiet. Factory soybean oil production may accumulate during the holiday, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may ease inventory pressure, soybean oil inventory remains high, which may drag down the spot basis [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers being more willing to sell. Prices may rebound slightly in the short term but are expected to decline as the harvest progresses. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid needs and have seasonal replenishment needs. In the short term, the market supply is increasing, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling attitudes [7]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by rapid Brazilian production and demand before the October contract expiration. There is an oversupply in the trade flow due to high sugar production and inventory during the Brazilian crushing peak. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decrease in cane crushing volume, the reduction in sugar - making ratio, and the gradual end of the crushing season from September to October. Overall, there are limited positive factors for raw sugar, and it is expected to remain in a weak bottom - sideways pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. Domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking, the overall trading atmosphere is light. The market is expected to remain weak [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, so there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, providing limited support. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, traders' risk - aversion has increased, and their purchases in the origin have decreased. Weakening demand may drag down egg prices. Abundant egg supply will also have a negative impact on the egg market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. Egg prices are expected to remain sideways at the bottom in the short term but face pressure in the medium term [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; M2601 futures price is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14%. Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40%; RM2601 futures price is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46%. Harbin soybean spot price is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean No. 1 main - contract futures price is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33%. The basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15%. The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% [2]. Pork - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis is 255, up 280 or 1120%. The price of Live Hogs 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or 2.23%. The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or 2.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Sichuan is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88%. The weekly white - strip price is 0, down 19.8 or 100%. The weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 or 203.23% [4]. Edible Oils - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.83%; Y2601 futures price is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.15%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 1.30%; P2601 futures price is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.02% [6]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 18.83%. The basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or 1966.67%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.87%. The basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63%. The 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 62.96% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12%. The basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 3.75%. The 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%. The price of Sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.09%. The 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning sugar is - 1326 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 2.14% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales are 1000 million tons, up 114 million tons or 12.87% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.15%. The price of Cotton 2601 is 13555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 175% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.31%. The difference between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index: M: 1% is 1726 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 7.5% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory is 117.59 million tons, down 30.58 million tons or 20.6%. Industrial inventory is 86.21 million tons, down 3.02 million tons or 3.4% [12]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3016 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan or 0.66%. The price of Egg 10 contract is 2918 yuan/500KG, down 22 yuan or 0.75%. The egg - producing area price is 3.44 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan or 2.76% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - to - feed ratio is 2.85, up 0.21 or 7.95%. The breeding profit is 3.20 yuan/feather, up 12.31 yuan or 135.13% [15].

1. Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may strengthen due to potential growth in production and exports. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to follow suit if they can effectively stand above the moving average. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. - Soybean oil: The negative impact of the US EPA's proposal is almost digested. If the China - US leaders' call involves China's purchase of US soybeans, it will boost the CBOT soybean and soybean oil markets. The domestic market is in the final stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, and the news of soybean oil exports also supports the market [1]. Sugar Industry - The Brazilian sugar production in late August exceeded market expectations, causing the raw sugar price to decline significantly. The domestic sugar market is under pressure due to increased imports in August and the weakening of raw sugar prices, and it is expected to maintain a weak downward trend [3]. Cotton Industry - The mid - term domestic cotton price may face pressure as the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is low, and there is significant hedging pressure. The downstream industry has low confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than in previous years [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market will maintain low - level fluctuations or may have a slight rebound due to the impact of the new - season listing rhythm and price support. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the grain - purchasing rhythm and weather conditions [6]. Egg Industry - The egg price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory and increased egg production after the weather cools. The approach of National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival may increase demand, but currently, the price is under pressure [10]. Meal Industry - The domestic concern about the fourth - quarter supply of meals is gradually alleviated, with a loose spot market. Although there are many short - term negative factors suppressing soybean meal, there is still a basis for rebound as the supply in January - February next year is not loose, and the uncertainty lies in the China - US negotiation results [13]. Pig Industry - The pig market has increased supply from the breeding end, and the demand recovery is slow. The short - term spot price lacks support, and the near - term contracts are expected to maintain a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 spread arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 19, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8620 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8328 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9300 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the futures price of P2601 was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10180 yuan/ton, up 1.19%; the futures price of OI601 was 10068 yuan/ton, up 0.84% [1]. - Spreads: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 680 yuan/ton, up 6.85%; the 2601 contract spread was - 1062 yuan/ton, up 2.21%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1560 yuan/ton, up 2.63%; the 2601 contract spread was 1740 yuan/ton, up 2.35% [1]. Sugar Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of sugar 2601 was 5461 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.18 cents/pound, up 0.31%. The spot price in Nanning was 5830 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5845 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [3]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative sales were 1000.00 million tons, up 12.87% year - on - year. The Brazilian sugar production in late August was 387.2 million tons, up 18.21% year - on - year [3]. Cotton Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of cotton 2605 was 13705 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13720 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The ICE US cotton主力 was 66.30 cents/pound, down 0.93%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15198 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [4]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 18.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 3.5% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 40% month - on - month [4]. Corn Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of corn 2511 was 2168 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The price of corn starch 2511 was 2463 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [6]. - Industry Situation: In the Northeast, the old - season inventory is low, and the new - season listing is slow, which supports the price. In the North China, continuous rainfall affects the corn harvest, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants has decreased [6]. Egg Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the egg 11 - contract was 3112 yuan/500KG, down 0.64%; the price of the egg 10 - contract was 3025 yuan/500KG, down 0.59% [10]. - Industry Situation: The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.50, up 2.88%, and the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 20.84% [10]. Meal Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of M2601 was 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70%. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.17%; the price of RM2601 was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% [13]. - Industry Situation: The USDA September supply - demand report shows an increase in production and a slight increase in the stock - to - sales ratio. The Brazilian premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost [13]. Pig Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the pig 2511 contract was 12825 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13350 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The spot price in Henan was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [15]. - Industry Situation: The slaughter volume increased by 0.57% day - on - day, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 245.13% week - on - week [15].

Group 1: Overall Information - The reports cover multiple industries including粕类, livestock (pigs), oils, corn, sugar, cotton, and eggs, with data as of September 17, 2025 [1][3][7][8][12][14][17] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports Group 3: Core Views 粕类 - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited due to cost support, and it is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 3100 in Q4 [1] Pigs - Spot pressure continues to materialize, demand recovery is uncertain, and the futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out [3] Oils - Palm oil futures may strengthen, and soybean oil has a complex situation with more supply currently but potential price support later [7] Corn - Short - term market supply and demand are loose, the market is oscillating weakly, and it remains weak in the medium - term [8] Sugar - The raw sugar price is expected to bottom - oscillate, and the domestic sugar market may stabilize near 5500 but has limited upside [12] Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate in a range, and face pressure after new cotton is listed [14] Eggs - Egg prices may rise to a high but be suppressed by supply, and there is a risk of a slight decline after the demand fades [18] Group 4: Industry - Specific Summaries 粕类 - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu is 3030, the futures price of M2601 is 3041, and the basis of M2601 is - 11. The import profit of Brazilian November shipment is 7. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu is 2620, the futures price of RM2601 is 2518, and the basis of RM2601 is 102. The import profit of Canadian November shipment is 866 [1] Pigs - Futures prices such as those of contracts 2511 and 2601 decline slightly, and spot prices in various regions also drop. The slaughter volume increases slightly, and breeding profits decline [3] Oils - For soybean oil, the futures price of Y2601 is 8122. For palm oil, the spot price in Guangdong is 9400, and the futures price of P2601 is 9252. For rapeseed oil, the spot price in Jiangsu is 10060, and the futures price of Ol601 is 9586 [7] Corn - The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port is 2166, and the basis is 144. The price of corn starch 2511 is 2443, and the basis is 117 [8] Sugar - The futures price of sugar 2601 is 5547, and the spot price in Nanning is 5890. The production and sales of sugar increase year - on - year, and the import volume also rises [12] Cotton - The futures price of cotton 2605 is 13860, and the spot price of Xinjiang 3128B is 15214. Industrial and commercial inventories decline, and the import volume increases [14] Eggs - The futures prices of egg contracts 11 and 10 decline, the spot price in the production area rises, and the breeding profit improves [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the central price of oils and fats [11]. - Oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand, with a tight expectation. They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas appears [11]. - Given the current high valuation, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the three major oils and fats first rose and then fell. The market pre - traded the expectation of tight supply - demand in Indonesia, boosted by events such as Indonesia's confiscation of plantations and China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, due to factors like commodity price corrections, high profits of major oils, and sufficient actual supply, the overall price of oils and fats declined. The net long positions of foreign capital seats that were long in August also decreased significantly [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA August monthly report maintained that the U.S. will increase industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India imported about 1.6 million tons of vegetable oils in August, and its inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. New rapeseed crops show a pattern of increased production [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: In August, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak, and the spot basis declined. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly from a high level, the palm oil inventory will remain stable, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats will remain high in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should consider the market as bullish. For now, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the basis and basis seasonality charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil's 01 contracts, including the basis between FCPOV25.MDE and FOB palm oil (Malaysia), and the basis between domestic spot prices and futures prices [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [27][28][29][30]. - **Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, the NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate [32][33]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [39][42][44][47]. - **Profit Charts**: Charts show the import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the average crushing profit of coastal rapeseed, and the POGO and BOHO spreads related to bio - diesel profits [42][44][58]. 5. Cost Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [49][50]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China [53]. 6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [56]. - **Bio - diesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Sugar - Supply expectations are increasing, making it difficult for raw sugar to rise. However, there is a risk of downward revision of Brazil's sugar production, which provides some support for sugar prices. Overall, raw sugar lacks a driving force and is expected to consolidate in the range of 15 - 17 cents per pound in the short term. The domestic sugar price maintains a wide - range oscillation pattern with limited upside and downside space. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly around 5500 - 5700 yuan per ton [2]. Meal and Soybean - The expected high yield of US soybeans and the high - level good - quality rate suppress market bullish sentiment. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of US soybeans suppresses the market. Although the domestic concern about future supply has gradually eased and the spot market is loose, the cost side provides good support. The downward space of domestic meals is limited, and the cost support for domestic meals in the fourth quarter is still strong. The market shows signs of stabilization, and investors can consider going long on dips [4]. Pig - The spot price of pigs has strengthened slightly. The supply of pigs for slaughter has decreased. With the start of school and the cooling of the weather in the north, consumption has been driven to some extent. The market has certain confidence in future demand, and the sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. However, there may still be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the Double Festival. The short - term supply tightening boosts the spot price, but the sustainable space is limited. The near - term volatility has intensified. The short - term 11 - contract may have some support, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [6]. Corn - Northeast traders have limited inventory, and the purchase and sales are inactive. They are more concerned about the new - season corn. The price in North China has stopped falling. Affected by rainy weather, the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has decreased significantly. The new - season corn is expected to have a good harvest, and the market expects an increase in production. Starting from late September, the new - season corn will enter the peak listing period, which will put pressure on prices. On the demand side, deep - processing plants and feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventory, and their purchasing enthusiasm is weak. In the short term, the market is in a rebound and consolidation stage, but the medium - term weak situation remains unchanged. Investors can consider shorting on rebounds [8][10]. Cotton - The upcoming new - cotton purchase situation on the supply side remains to be verified. Before the new cotton is listed, the inventory is still relatively tight. The demand has improved marginally since August, but the improvement in the downstream is not obvious, and the profits of textile enterprises have not improved significantly. The downstream industry lacks confidence in the traditional peak season, but the market still pays attention to whether there will be seasonal orders in September, which still provides some support for cotton prices. Overall, the operating center of cotton prices has risen, but there is no obvious driving force for a significant upward increase. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13500 - 14500 yuan per ton [11]. Oil - For palm oil, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil has increased. The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to stop falling and rebound, and the Dalian palm oil futures also have the opportunity to stop falling and rise, and are expected to return above 9500 yuan in the future. For soybean oil, the negative factors such as the possible reduction of US soybean oil industrial consumption and the end of the fuel consumption peak season have been digested by the market. The downside space of the CBOT soybean oil main contract is limited. Although the domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, due to the start of the demand season, the spot basis quotation may still rise after oscillation [12]. Egg - In terms of supply, the number of newly - opened laying hens in September may be slightly less than that in August. In terms of demand, although there is some support from the Mid - Autumn Festival at the beginning of September, the market demand will weaken as the festival approaches and will decline rapidly after the festival. Overall, egg prices may rebound in early September, but the upside is limited, and a bearish view is maintained [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.09% to 260a yuan per ton, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.57% to 5623 yuan per ton. The ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.97% to 16.34 cents per pound. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar decreased by 207.69% to - 14 yuan per ton. The main - contract open interest increased by 0.28% to 358781 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.29% to 13916 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.84% to 5910 yuan per ton, and the price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5825 yuan per ton. The Nanning county basis decreased by 22.22% to 287 yuan per ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 13.68% to 202 yuan per ton. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 0.29% to 4552 yuan per ton, and the price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.29% to 5786 yuan per ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 15.76% to 955.00 tons. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 tons, and the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 37.99% to 35.55 tons. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate increased by 3.36% to 85.60%, and the cumulative sugar - sales rate in Guangxi increased by 3.04% to 85.01%. The national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 10.44% to 96.89 tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi decreased by 12.23% to 181.97 tons, and the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.29% to 86.30 tons. Sugar imports increased by 160.00% to 13.00 tons [2]. Meal and Soybean - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33% to 3050 yuan per ton, the price of the M2601 contract decreased by 0.03% to 3054 yuan per ton. The basis of M2601 increased by 73.33% to - 4 yuan per ton. The basis quotation in Jiangsu remained unchanged at m2601 - 80. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for October shipment decreased by 62.7% to 19 yuan per ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 18.9% to 15125 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39% to 2600 yuan per ton, the price of the RM2601 contract remained unchanged at 2513 yuan per ton. The basis of RM2601 increased by 12.99% to 87 yuan per ton. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for November shipment increased by 7.60% to 779 yuan per ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.76% to 6041 [4]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3980 yuan per ton, the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract increased by 0.51% to 3965 yuan per ton. The basis of the soybean No. 1 main contract decreased by 57.14% to 15 yuan per ton. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3800 yuan per ton, the price of the soybean No. 2 main contract decreased by 0.27% to 3724 yuan per ton. The basis of the soybean No. 2 main contract increased by 15.15% to 76 yuan per ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.84% to 8855 [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of bean meal increased by 2.13% to 240 yuan per ton, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 20.22% to 107 yuan per ton. The spot oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.68% to 2.81, and the main - contract oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.09% to 2.73. The spot bean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged at 450 yuan per ton, and the 2601 bean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 0.18% to 541 yuan per ton [4]. Pig - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract was 360 yuan per ton, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 13625 yuan per ton, and the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13840 yuan per ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs was - 215 yuan per ton, the main - contract open interest was 75464 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 430 [7]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Henan increased by 450 yuan to 14200 yuan per ton, the price in Shandong increased by 350 yuan to 14200 yuan per ton, the price in a certain place (1166) increased by 300 yuan to 13600 yuan per ton, the price in Liaoning increased by 400 yuan to 13750 yuan per ton, the price in Guangdong increased by 750 yuan to 15590 yuan per ton, the price in Hunan increased by 150 yuan to 13760 yuan per ton, and the price in Hebei increased by 400 yuan to 14200 yuan per ton [6]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.12% to 148354 heads, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 20.05 yuan per kilogram, the weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 26.00 yuan per kilogram, the weekly sow price decreased by 0.03% to 32.51 yuan per kilogram, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13% to 127.98 kilograms, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 5.04% to 32 yuan per head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 2.23% to - 148 yuan per head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.02% to 40420000 heads [6]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract increased by 0.09% to 2193 yuan per ton, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port increased by 0.44% to 2280 yuan per ton. The basis increased by 10.13% to 87 yuan per ton, the 11 - 3 spread of corn remained unchanged at - 7 yuan per ton. The bulk - grain price in Shekou increased by 0.42% to 2380 yuan per ton, and the north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 24 yuan per ton. The CIF price decreased by 0.78% to 1926 yuan per ton, and the import profit increased by 5.87% to 454 yuan per ton. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning decreased by 43.68% to 98, the open interest decreased by 1.08% to 1634596 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.43% to 67737 [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract decreased by 0.04% to 2500 yuan per ton, the spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2660 yuan per ton, and the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2900 yuan per ton. The basis increased by 0.63% to 160 yuan per ton, the 11 - 3 spread of corn starch decreased by 8.11% to - 40 yuan per ton. The starch - corn spread on the futures market decreased by 0.97% to 307 yuan per ton, the starch production profit in Shandong decreased by 10.38% to - 117 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 0.42% to 273467 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7450 [8]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 1.41% to 13592 yuan per ton, the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 1.51% to 14025 yuan per ton. The ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 1.11% to 66.53 cents per pound. The 9 - 1 spread of cotton increased by 4.44% to - 430 yuan per ton. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7.44% to 258833 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.98% to 6320 [11]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) increased by 0.98% to 15392 yuan per ton, the CC Index (3128B) increased by 0.99% to 15479 yuan per ton, and the FC Index (M: 1%) decreased by 1.16% to 13336 yuan per ton. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 23.68% to 1797 yuan per ton, the basis of 3128B - 05 contract increased by 36.29% to 1367 yuan per ton, and the difference between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) increased by 16.72% to 2143 yuan per ton [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 16.9% to 182.02 tons, the industrial inventory increased by 2.9% to 92.42 tons. The import volume increased by 66.7% to 5.00 tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 4.0% to 28.90 tons. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased by 125.0% to - 0.20, the inventory days of yarn decreased by 1.6% to 27.23 days, and the inventory days of grey fabric decreased by 2.7% to 35.18 days. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6% to 53.46 tons, the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises (C32s) decreased by 8.0% to - 2246.90 yuan per ton. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and textiles decreased by 24.6% to 961.30 billion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales decreased by 5.3% to 1.80%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.7% to 116.04 billion US dollars, the year - on - year growth rate of export value increased by 131.7% to 0.52. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 0.7% to 151.62 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate of export value decreased by 176.8% to - 0.61 [11]. Oil - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35% to 8570 yuan per ton, the price of the Y2601 contract decreased by 0.10% to 8390 yuan per ton. The basis decreased by 10.89% to 180 yuan per ton, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15760 [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.43% to 9280 yuan per ton, the price of the P2601 contract increased by 0.11% to 9330 yuan per ton. The basis decreased to - 50 yuan per

1. Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Sugar - Brazilian sugarcane yield decline and concerns over lower sugar - making ratios may lead to a downward revision of Brazil's sugar production. The ICE raw sugar is expected to face difficulty in significant short - term drops and may test the 17 - cent/lb resistance level. In China, sugar imports in July are expected to be much higher than the same period last year, but with the price rebound and improved de - stocking in Guangxi, the overall sugar price is supported. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade in a range with reduced downward momentum [1]. Cotton - After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the downstream industry has slightly improved. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased slightly, and the spinning mills' operation rate has remained stable. The cotton price is supported in the short term, but the expected increase in new - season cotton production may put pressure on the price when new cotton is listed [2]. Eggs - With a large number of laying hens in stock, egg production is generally abundant. Cold - storage eggs are expected to enter the market soon, increasing supply pressure. The downstream digestion speed is average, so egg prices are expected to remain bearish [6]. Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, and downstream procurement is smooth. However, farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening activities support the price. The supply and demand are both weak. In August, the group - farm slaughter is expected to recover, and there is also an inventory of large pigs from small - scale farmers waiting to be sold. The long - term price outlook is not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is affected by policies, and with the slowdown in production capacity growth, there is some support at the bottom [7]. Meal - The USDA monthly supply - demand report has supported US soybeans, but the high good - rate of new - season US soybeans and China's non - import of new - season US soybeans still pose upward pressure. After a short - term rally, the meal futures may face difficulties in further climbing. The domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and the spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to buy long - term contracts at low prices [11]. Corn - Policy - driven import corn auctions have low trading volumes. On the supply side, the inventory of traders in production areas is low, and the price is weak in the Northeast. In North China, the price rebound is limited due to the upcoming new - season corn. The demand side lacks obvious highlights, and the substitution of wheat also squeezes corn demand. The corn futures are expected to trade weakly in the short term and may face more pressure from the new - season supply in the medium term [13]. Fats and Oils - Palm oil may face downward pressure in the international market but has an upward trend in the domestic Dalian market, with an expected target of 9800 - 10000 yuan. Soybean oil is affected by the potential decline in US soybean oil industrial use and the drop in CBOT soybean prices. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation may vary with the futures price movement [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Futures Market - The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.14% to 5672 yuan/ton, while Sugar 2509 decreased by 0.07% to 5736 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 dropped by 1.40% to 16.24 cents/lb. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 15.79% to - 64 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest rose by 2.34% to 322,832 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16,931 [1]. Spot Market - The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained stable and decreased slightly respectively. The Nanning basis increased by 1.67% to 244 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 0.83% to 119 yuan/ton. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased slightly [1]. Industry Situation - Nationally, the cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% to 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 15.76% to 9.55 million tons. The cumulative sales ratio increased by 3.36% to 85.60%. In Guangxi, the cumulative production increased by 4.59% to 6.465 million tons, but the monthly sales decreased by 37.99% to 355,500 tons. The industrial inventory decreased in most regions, and sugar imports increased by 160% to 130,000 tons [1]. Cotton Futures Market - Cotton 2509 decreased by 0.04% to 13,830 yuan/ton, and Cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 14,125 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton主力 rose by 0.53% to 67.84 cents/lb. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.51% to - 295 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest increased by 1.77% to 486,067 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7,762 [2]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B cotton increased slightly, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased slightly. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 1.21% to 1,252 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9% to 2.1898 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 1.8% to 0.8984 million tons. The import volume increased by 66.7% to 50,000 tons. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 8.0% to 301,000 tons. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, and the cotton outbound shipment increased by 22.6% to 534,600 tons. The processing profit of spinning mills decreased, and the retail sales of clothing and textiles decreased [2]. Eggs Futures and Spot Market - The prices of the 09 and 10 egg contracts decreased by 2.70% and 2.17% respectively. The egg price in the production area increased by 5.47% to 3.31 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 567.84% to 198 yuan/500KG. The 9 - 10 spread decreased by 850.00% to - 15 [5]. Industry Situation - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 6.49% to 3.60 yuan/chick, the price of culled chickens decreased by 3.53% to 5.47 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20% to 2.45, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% to - 21.44 yuan/chick [5]. Pigs Futures Market - The prices of the 2511 and 2601 live - pig contracts decreased by 0.90% and 0.46% respectively. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 21.43% to - 340 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest increased by 9.79% to 71,193 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. Spot Market - The spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, with the exception of Guangdong where the price remained stable. The main - contract basis decreased by 9.33% to - 410 yuan/ton [7]. Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.54% to 140,396 heads. The weekly white - strip price, pig -let price, and sow price remained unchanged. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. The self - breeding profit decreased by 36.07% to 29 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 17.08% to - 157 yuan/head. The monthly inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [7]. Meal Futures and Spot Market - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained stable, while the M2601 contract increased by 0.57%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 26.87%. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 1.53%, and the RM2601 contract increased by 1.73%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 6.25%. The price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 0.25%, and the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained stable [11]. Industry Situation - The soybean and meal inventories in China are rising, and the short - term supply is high due to high arrivals and high operation rates, which suppresses the spot market [11]. Corn Futures and Spot Market - The price of the 2511 corn contract decreased by 0.59%. The basis of Jinzhou Port increased by 2.31%. The 11 - 3 spread decreased by 18.75%. The price of the 2509 corn starch contract decreased by 0.77%, and the basis increased by 20.83% [13]. Industry Situation - Policy - driven import corn auctions have low trading volumes. The supply in production areas is weak in the Northeast and limited by the upcoming new - season corn in North China. The demand side lacks highlights, and wheat substitution squeezes corn demand [13]. Fats and Oils Futures and Spot Market - The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.57%, the Y2601 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the basis increased by 29.36%. The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil increased by 2.90%, the P2601 contract increased by 1.49%, and the basis increased by 138.30%. The price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil increased by 1.31%, the OI601 contract increased by 0.46%, and the basis increased by 91.40% [16]. Industry Situation - Palm oil may face downward pressure in the international market but has an upward trend in the domestic market. Soybean oil is affected by the potential decline in US soybean oil industrial use and the drop in CBOT soybean prices. The supply of soybean oil in China is sufficient [16].

1. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that Zhengzhou sugar will remain volatile with reduced downward momentum. The decline in Brazilian sugarcane yield per unit and concerns about the high sugar - making ratio have raised the risk of a downward revision in Brazilian sugar production, leading to a rebound in raw sugar after a period of low - level consolidation. Although India and Thailand are expected to have bumper harvests, there may be differences from expectations. In the short term, it is difficult for raw sugar to experience a significant decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17 cents per pound. In July, sugar imports are expected to be significantly higher than the same period last year. However, as the futures price stops falling and rebounds, the inventory reduction progress in Guangxi has further improved, which generally supports the price. Currently, the domestic news is relatively calm [1]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.14% to 5672 yuan/ton, while sugar 2509 decreased by 0.07% to 5736 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 1.40% to 16.24 cents per pound. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 15.79% to - 64 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 2.34% to 322,832, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16,931 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan/ton. The Nanning basis increased by 1.67% to 244 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 0.83% to 119 yuan/ton. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 0.20% to 4561 yuan/ton, and (out - of - quota) increased by 0.17% to 5796 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 15.76% to 955.00 million tons. In Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, and the monthly sales decreased by 37.99% to 35.55 million tons. The national cumulative sugar sales rate increased by 3.36% to 85.60%, and in Guangxi, it increased by 3.04% to 85.01%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 10.44% to 96.89 million tons, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23% to 181.97 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 160.00% to 13.00 million tons [1]. 2. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View After the cotton price stabilized at the beginning of August, the downstream of the cotton industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has slightly decreased, and the spinning mills' operating rate has remained stable. The market is concerned about whether the downstream will continue to improve marginally during the traditional peak season, which provides support for the cotton price at low levels. Meanwhile, before the new cotton is launched, the spot basis remains firm, and there is a shortage of low - basis spot cotton in Xinjiang warehouses, which also strongly supports the cotton price. However, as the new cotton is about to be launched, the expected increase in the new - season cotton production still exerts some pressure on the long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is launched [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.04% to 13,830 yuan/ton, and cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 14,125 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton主力 increased by 0.53% to 67.84 cents per pound. The 9 - 1 spread of cotton decreased by 3.51% to - 295 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1.77% to 486,067, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B increased by 0.07% to 15,082 yuan/ton, and the CC Index 3128B increased by 0.12% to 15,234 yuan/ton. The FC Index M 1% decreased by 0.13% to 13,541 yuan/ton. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 1.21% to 1252 yuan/ton, and 3128B - 05 contract increased by 0.53% to 957 yuan/ton. The difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% increased by 2.11% to 1693 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9% to 218.98 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 1.8% to 89.84 million tons. Imports increased by 66.7% to 5.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.0% to 30.10 million tons. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased by 57.9% to 0.80. The inventory days of yarn decreased by 2.4% to 27.67 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased by 3.0% to 36.14 days. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6% to 53.46 million tons. The immediate processing profit of spinning mills C32s decreased by 1.0% to - 2037.40 yuan/ton. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 24.7% to 961.00 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 5.3% to 1.80%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.7% to 116.04 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate increased by 131.7% to 0.52%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 0.7% to 151.62 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate decreased by 176.8% to - 0.61 [2]. 3. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report expects the egg price to maintain a bearish trend. The inventory of laying hens is still large, and the egg production is generally sufficient. There is an abundance of small - and medium - sized eggs in most production areas, and the supply of large - sized eggs has increased in some areas. Cold - stored eggs are planned to enter the market soon, which may further increase the supply pressure. The current downstream digestion speed is average [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 2.70% to 3098 yuan/500KG, and the egg 10 contract decreased by 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500KG. The 9 - 10 spread decreased by 850.00% to - 15 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing areas increased by 5.47% to 3.31 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 567.84% to 198 yuan/500KG [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of laying - hen chicks decreased by 6.49% to 3.60 yuan/feather, the price of culled hens decreased by 3.53% to 5.47 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20% to 2.45, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% to - 21.44 yuan/feather [5]. 4. Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The spot price of pigs has stabilized, and downstream procurement is smooth. However, the reluctance of farmers to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening activities have supported the pig price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the group farms' pig sales in August will continue to recover, and farmers who previously held back large pigs also need to sell them. Therefore, it is still difficult to be optimistic about the future pig price. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies. At the same time, as the pig weight is continuously decreasing and the growth rate of production capacity is slowing down, the support at the lower level is increasing. It is not recommended to blindly short, but in the case where the futures market has offered good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds also needs to be considered [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract decreased by 9.33% to - 410 yuan/ton. The price of cattle pigs 2511 decreased by 0.90% to 13,820 yuan/ton, and pigs 2601 decreased by 0.46% to 14,160 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs decreased by 21.43% to - 340 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 9.79% to 71,193, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 430 [8]. - **Spot Market**: The pig price in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 13,750 yuan/ton, in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 13,900 yuan/ton, in Liaoning decreased by 50 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton, and in Hebei decreased by 100 yuan to 13,700 yuan/ton. The prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Anhui remained unchanged at 13,500 yuan/ton, 15,040 yuan/ton, and 13,760 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.54% to 140,396. The weekly white - strip pig price remained unchanged at 20.31 yuan/kg. The weekly price of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 32.53 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight increased slightly to 127.82 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 36.07% to 29 yuan/head, and the weekly profit from purchasing piglets decreased by 17.08% to - 157 yuan/head. The monthly inventory of sows capable of reproduction increased by 0.02% to 4043 million heads [8]. 5. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The USDA monthly supply - and - demand report has supported the US soybean price by adjusting the planting area, yield forecast, and inventory - to - sales ratio. However, the high - quality rate of new - season US soybeans remains high, and China has not yet imported new - season US soybeans, so there is still pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the results of the profarmer inspection this week. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce had a short - term positive impact on the market, but the futures price has since declined, and it is difficult to continue to rise in the short term. In terms of the spot basis, the current inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is continuously increasing, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, so the spot price is still under pressure. In operation, the bottom range of meal products has moved up, and the overall trend is still upward. Long - term long positions can be gradually established at low levels [12]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3070 yuan/ton. The price of the M2601 contract increased by 0.57% to 3155 yuan/ton. The basis of M2601 decreased by 26.87% to - 85 yuan/ton. The spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 160. The import crushing profit of US Gulf shipments remained unchanged, and the import crushing profit of Brazilian October shipments decreased by 19.6% to 74 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,925 [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.53% to 2650 yuan/ton. The price of the RM2601 contract increased by 1.73% to 2590 yuan/ton. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 6.25% to 60 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit of Canadian November shipments remained unchanged at 596 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9821 [12]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 0.25% to 3950 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.30% to 4044 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - one main contract increased by 2.08% to - 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3700 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - two main contract increased by 0.21% to 3800 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 8.70% to - 100 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.25% to 12,632 [12]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 1.85% to - 55 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 4.85% to 8 yuan/ton. The spot oil - to - meal ratio increased by 0.57% to 2.88, and the main - contract oil - to - meal ratio decreased by 0.78% to 2.70. The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 8.70% to 420 yuan/ton, and the 2509 difference decreased by 4.40% to 565 yuan/ton [12]. 6. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The policy - end import corn auction is held twice a week, with about 40 million tons put up for auction, but the transaction rate is less than 20%, and the trading is relatively light. Affected by the upcoming new - grain harvest, the rebound of the spot price is limited. There are no obvious bright spots on the demand side, and deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly consume their own inventories and purchase corn on a just - in - time basis. On the substitution side, the price of wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - at - support - price policy, and the price difference between corn and wheat is at a similar level, which has squeezed some of the corn demand. In summary, the overall market trading is light, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing, so the futures price will maintain a weak - fluctuating trend. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn will decrease, and the production may increase steadily, resulting in obvious supply pressure. The futures price will move towards the new - season cost. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [14]. Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract decreased by 0.59% to 2177 yuan/ton. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.43% to 2310 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 2.31% to 133 yuan/ton. The 11 - 3 spread of corn decreased by 18.75% to - 19 yuan/ton. The bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2400 yuan/ton. The north - south trading profit increased by 250.00% to 14 yuan/ton. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1926 yuan/ton, and the import profit remained unchanged at 474 yuan/ton. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 13.21% to 180. The position increased by 3