1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of various commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Indonesia's plan to cut nickel production in 2026 has boosted market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains uncertain. The short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited, with the main contract reference range of 126,000 - 135,000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanex's production interruption in Chile has led to a price increase. The port is facing inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to shift to destocking in the first quarter of the next year. The price in the inland area is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is in the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term, with attention paid to the changes in farmers' selling mentality and policy releases [4]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market shows a structural theme market, with the index oscillating at a high level. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a bull spread combination and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [5][7]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but it is still fragile. It is expected to be in a volatile situation in the short term. After the New Year, attention should be paid to the capital flow, central bank's bond - buying, and other factors [8][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The Fed's December meeting minutes have a neutral impact. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium - to - long - term, investors can consider bargain - hunting after the New Year [11][13]. 3.4 Shipping (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is overestimated. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [16][19]. - **Alumina**: Policy incentives are difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The TC decline supports the price. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to import profitability, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [27][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has subsided, and the price has fallen sharply. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the macro situation and supply - side recovery [30][35]. - **Nickel**: Driven by news and technical factors, the price has broken through the previous high. The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with attention paid to nickel ore news and steel mill production cuts [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The end - of - year news has increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [42][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. In January, there is pressure to cut production due to weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [47][49]. 3.6 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is in a volatile trend. The production cut and inventory reduction support the price, but the weak demand limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is facing the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a short - term long - position attempt [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price has peaked and declined. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [55][59]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts has been launched. The supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [60][64]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [65][68]. - **Silicomanganese**: The manganese ore supports the price, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to be volatile, with interval operations recommended [69][71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean harvest expectation suppresses the market. The domestic spot is loose. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [72][74]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [75][76]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term [77][79]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. The domestic supply pressure restricts the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [80][82]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are in a bottom - level oscillation. The domestic price has reached a new high for the year. The short - term price may correct, and the medium - to - long - term trend is relatively optimistic [83][85]. - **Egg**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [86][87]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil has a short - term upward trend, but the overall oils should not be over - bullish. Different oils have different price trends and risks [88][90]. - **Jujube**: The cost supports the price, but the consumption improvement is limited. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 01 contract and the Spring Festival stocking [91][92]. - **Apple**: The demand is weak, and the price is declining. The short - term market is in a game between scarce delivery fruits and high - inventory ordinary fruits [93]. 3.8 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The valuation has increased significantly, and the downstream negative feedback is prominent. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [94][95]. - **PTA**: The processing fee has recovered, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [96][97]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [98]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply expectation increases. The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply is expected to shrink, but the near - month inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread on EG5 - 9 at high prices [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is limited. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [103][104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short above 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [105][106]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the transaction is neutral. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [107]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the PDH profit expansion [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the MTO05 spread contraction [108][109]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the现货 price has declined steadily. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [109][110]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the high - price transaction is light. The price is expected to weaken after a rebound [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The production rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: Supported by production line cold - repair and improved sales rate, the price is expected to be in a bottom - level oscillation and strengthen [113][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to hold short positions [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, and the price follows the commodity trend. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation between 11,200 - 12,000 [118][119].

Group 1: Sugar Investment Rating Not provided Core View The sugar market is expected to remain weak next week due to a lack of positive factors and weak price rebound. The supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices. The increase in supply has led to a decline in futures prices and a subsequent drop in basis sugar prices. [2] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar futures contracts have generally declined, while the ICE raw sugar主力 has increased slightly. The main contract's open interest has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have decreased, and the basis has changed. The price of imported Brazilian sugar has increased, and the spread between imported and domestic sugar has also changed. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar have decreased year - on - year, and the national sales rate has declined, while the sales rate in Guangxi has increased. Industrial inventories in most regions have decreased, except for an increase in Yunnan. Sugar imports have increased. [2] Group 2: Cotton Investment Rating Not provided Core View Internationally, US cotton maintains a volatile market. Domestically, the market expects a decline in Xinjiang's planting area next year, with a long - term optimistic outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, and cotton prices face some upward pressure. [5] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of some cotton futures contracts has declined slightly, and the open interest of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts has increased. [5] - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices have increased, and the basis has also changed. [5] - **Industry Situation**: The shortage has increased, industrial inventories have increased slightly, imports have decreased, and the inventory in bonded areas has decreased. The inventory of the textile industry has decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth have changed. Cotton outbound shipments have increased, while the processing profit of spinning enterprises has decreased. Retail sales and export volumes in the textile and clothing industries have increased. [5] Group 3: Corn Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current grain sales progress is relatively fast, but the effective market circulation of grain is limited. The price is relatively stable in the short term due to factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the supply pressure restricts the upward space of corn prices. [7] Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract at Jinzhou Port has declined slightly, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 5 spread remains unchanged. The price at Shekou Port remains stable, and the north - south trade profit remains unchanged. The arrival - at - port duty - paid price has decreased slightly, and the import profit has increased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased significantly, the open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract has increased slightly, and the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remain unchanged. The basis has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, the 01 - contract spread between starch and corn has increased, and the profit of Shandong starch has increased. The open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [7] Group 4: Oils Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, there is a risk of further decline after breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak and volatile adjustment. For soybean oil, the potential reduction in US biodiesel production is negative for CBOT soybean oil, but the rebound of BMD palm oil provides some support. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the decline in basis quotes may be limited in the short term. [10] Summary by Directory - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil has declined, and the basis has changed. The import cost has decreased, and the import profit has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [10] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil remains unchanged, and the basis has increased. The supply of domestic factories is sufficient, and the demand is limited. [10] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil has increased slightly, and the basis has also changed. [10] Group 5: Pigs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is stable, and the downward support has increased with the increase in southern curing demand. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market due to factors such as the increase in the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening, and the overall supply pressure is still large. [12] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of some pig futures contracts have increased, and the 3 - 5 spread has changed. The open interest of the main contract has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [12] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in different regions have changed, and the slaughter volume of sample points has increased. The weekly prices of pork strips remain unchanged, while the prices of piglets and sows have decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight has decreased slightly, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and purchased pigs have increased. The number of fertile sows has decreased. [12] Group 6: Eggs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg market is expected to be in a state of oversupply this week. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to insufficient terminal demand. [15] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg futures contracts have declined, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 2 spread has decreased. [15] - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the producing areas has decreased slightly, the price of egg - laying chicken seedlings has decreased, the price of culled chickens has increased, the egg - to - feed ratio has increased, and the breeding profit has increased. [15] - **Industry Situation**: The number of culled chickens has decreased slightly, and the number of newly - laying hens is still low. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the inventories at all links in the industry chain need to be digested. The terminal consumption is lower than expected, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has declined. [15] Group 7: Meal Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans lack trading highlights, and the market is not optimistic about the medium - and long - term price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, but there is a sentiment of supporting prices in the market, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread. [17] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal has increased, the futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has increased. The import crushing profit has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal remains unchanged, the futures price has increased, and the basis has decreased. The import crushing profit has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts is zero. [17] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has increased. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased slightly, and the basis has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17]

1. Sugar Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core Viewpoint The sugar price is expected to remain weak in the coming week due to ample supply prospects, with the futures market price weakening and the basis sugar price following suit. There is a lack of positive factors to drive a price rebound [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.71% and 0.59% respectively. The ICE raw sugar主力 rose by 1.62%. The 1 - 5 spread of sugar decreased by 6.19%. The main contract's open interest increased by 6.51%. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.75% respectively. The Nanning basis increased by 9.57%, while the Kunming basis decreased by 12.00%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 73.87%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 68.63%. The national cumulative sales rate decreased by 24.75%, while the cumulative sales rate in Guangxi increased by 20.05%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 7.40%, the industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 80.43%, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 110.00%. Sugar imports increased by 38.89% [2]. 2. Cotton Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core Viewpoint The international cotton market maintains a volatile trend, while the domestic cotton market is expected to be optimistic in the medium - to - long - term but faces constraints in the short - term. The cotton price has limited downside space but faces pressure above, with attention paid to the pressure around 14000 - 14100 [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, and the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.18%. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.27%. The 5 - 1 spread of cotton increased by 250.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 13.59%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.79%, and the valid forecasts increased by 3.43% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B and the CC Index: 3128B increased, while the FC Index: M: 1% decreased. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract and 3128B - 05 contract increased [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The shortage increased by 28.7%, the industrial inventory increased by 0.9%, the import volume decreased by 10.0%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 1.8%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 66.7%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 0.1%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 3.9%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products increased by 19.5%, the year - on - year of monthly retail sales increased by 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year of monthly export increased by 110.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year of export increased by 31.5% [5]. 3. Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core Viewpoint In the short - term, the corn price is relatively firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the upward space is limited by supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling rhythm in the producing areas and the downstream replenishment situation [7]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 1.75%, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The Shekou bulk grain price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit remained unchanged, the CIF price decreased by 0.13%, and the import profit increased by 1.01%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 42.09%. The open interest decreased by 1.05%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.30% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 increased by 0.12%, the Changchun and Weifang spot prices remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 4.48%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.77%, the starch - corn 01盘面 spread increased by 1.43%. The Shandong starch profit increased by 5.26%. The open interest decreased by 1.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. 4. Oil and Fat Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 4.2 Core Viewpoint Palm oil may continue to weaken, and there is a risk of falling below 4000 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures maintain a volatile and weak adjustment trend. CBOT soybean oil is mainly in a narrow - range volatile adjustment. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the demand is limited. The basis quotation decline may be limited in the short - term [10]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged, the Y2605 futures price decreased by 0.34%, and the basis increased by 8.43% [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.15%, the P2605 futures price decreased by 0.55%, and the basis decreased by 216.67%. The import cost decreased, and the import profit increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20%, the OI2605 futures price increased by 0.09%, and the basis increased by 2.74% [10]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to varying degrees [10]. 5. Pig Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 5.2 Core Viewpoint The spot pig price is stable, and the downward - support ability is enhanced with the increasing demand for pickling in the south. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market. The overall supply pressure is still large, and the price is hard to improve [12]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 31.25%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.68%, the price of pig 2603 increased by 0.94%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 4.17%. The main contract's open interest increased by 0.89%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 1.48%, the daily strip price remained unchanged, the piglet price decreased by 2.94%, the sow price decreased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight decreased by 0.15%, the self - breeding profit increased by 2.59%, the purchased - breeding profit increased by 7.21%, and the fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [12]. 6. Egg Industry 6.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 6.2 Core Viewpoint The egg market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply this week. The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited [15]. 6.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 01 contract decreased by 2.13%, the price of the egg 02 contract decreased by 1.58%, the basis increased by 106.60%, and the 1 - 2 spread decreased by 11.36% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.20%, the egg - chick price decreased by 1.75%, the culled - hen price increased by 2.85%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. The terminal consumption is less than expected, and the demand side is insufficient. The production - link inventory and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged compared with the previous day [15]. 7. Meal Industry 7.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 7.2 Core Viewpoint The medium - to - long - term price of US soybeans is not optimistic. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the unilateral trend is suppressed. Attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread [17]. 7.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The Jiangsu soybean meal price increased by 1.31%, the M2605 futures price increased by 0.73%, the basis increased by 6.45%, and the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 40.9% [17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The Jiangsu rapeseed meal price remained unchanged, the RM2605 futures price increased by 1.03%, the basis decreased by 27.59%, and the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 2.68% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.84%, the basis increased by 15.02%. The price of Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 0.26%, and the basis increased by 7.41% [17]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - meal inter - period spread, the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread, the soybean - to - meal ratio, and the oil - to - meal ratio changed to varying degrees [17].

1. Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may strengthen due to potential growth in production and exports. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to follow suit if they can effectively stand above the moving average. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. - Soybean oil: The negative impact of the US EPA's proposal is almost digested. If the China - US leaders' call involves China's purchase of US soybeans, it will boost the CBOT soybean and soybean oil markets. The domestic market is in the final stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, and the news of soybean oil exports also supports the market [1]. Sugar Industry - The Brazilian sugar production in late August exceeded market expectations, causing the raw sugar price to decline significantly. The domestic sugar market is under pressure due to increased imports in August and the weakening of raw sugar prices, and it is expected to maintain a weak downward trend [3]. Cotton Industry - The mid - term domestic cotton price may face pressure as the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is low, and there is significant hedging pressure. The downstream industry has low confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than in previous years [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market will maintain low - level fluctuations or may have a slight rebound due to the impact of the new - season listing rhythm and price support. In the medium term, the weak situation remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the grain - purchasing rhythm and weather conditions [6]. Egg Industry - The egg price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory and increased egg production after the weather cools. The approach of National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival may increase demand, but currently, the price is under pressure [10]. Meal Industry - The domestic concern about the fourth - quarter supply of meals is gradually alleviated, with a loose spot market. Although there are many short - term negative factors suppressing soybean meal, there is still a basis for rebound as the supply in January - February next year is not loose, and the uncertainty lies in the China - US negotiation results [13]. Pig Industry - The pig market has increased supply from the breeding end, and the demand recovery is slow. The short - term spot price lacks support, and the near - term contracts are expected to maintain a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 spread arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 19, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8620 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8328 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9300 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the futures price of P2601 was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10180 yuan/ton, up 1.19%; the futures price of OI601 was 10068 yuan/ton, up 0.84% [1]. - Spreads: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 680 yuan/ton, up 6.85%; the 2601 contract spread was - 1062 yuan/ton, up 2.21%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1560 yuan/ton, up 2.63%; the 2601 contract spread was 1740 yuan/ton, up 2.35% [1]. Sugar Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of sugar 2601 was 5461 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.18 cents/pound, up 0.31%. The spot price in Nanning was 5830 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; in Kunming, it was 5845 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [3]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative sales were 1000.00 million tons, up 12.87% year - on - year. The Brazilian sugar production in late August was 387.2 million tons, up 18.21% year - on - year [3]. Cotton Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of cotton 2605 was 13705 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13720 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The ICE US cotton主力 was 66.30 cents/pound, down 0.93%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15198 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [4]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 18.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 3.5% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 40% month - on - month [4]. Corn Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of corn 2511 was 2168 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The price of corn starch 2511 was 2463 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [6]. - Industry Situation: In the Northeast, the old - season inventory is low, and the new - season listing is slow, which supports the price. In the North China, continuous rainfall affects the corn harvest, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants has decreased [6]. Egg Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the egg 11 - contract was 3112 yuan/500KG, down 0.64%; the price of the egg 10 - contract was 3025 yuan/500KG, down 0.59% [10]. - Industry Situation: The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.50, up 2.88%, and the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 20.84% [10]. Meal Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of M2601 was 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70%. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.17%; the price of RM2601 was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% [13]. - Industry Situation: The USDA September supply - demand report shows an increase in production and a slight increase in the stock - to - sales ratio. The Brazilian premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost [13]. Pig Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the pig 2511 contract was 12825 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of the pig 2601 contract was 13350 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The spot price in Henan was 12950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [15]. - Industry Situation: The slaughter volume increased by 0.57% day - on - day, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 245.13% week - on - week [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to production growth and export decline, with potential support at 4100 ringgit and 8800 yuan domestically [1]. - Soybean oil may experience narrow - range oscillations in the short - term, and the basis may be under short - term pressure but supported in the long - term [1]. Sugar - The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but overall, a bearish view is maintained considering the production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally more balanced in supply and demand, and a bearish view is held after a potential rebound [3][4]. Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may remain high in a narrow range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize, as demand is increasing but supply is sufficient and high - temperature weather may limit price increases [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybeans' spot price increased slightly, futures price decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. Palm oil's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis increased significantly. Rapeseed oil's spot and futures prices decreased [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil is affected by fundamental factors, and domestic port inventories are increasing. For soybean oil, weather impacts are rising as August approaches, and domestic basis differences vary between July and August [1]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On July 22, domestic sugar futures prices decreased slightly, ICE raw sugar decreased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Imported sugar prices decreased, and the difference between imported and domestic sugar prices decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National and Guangxi's sugar production, sales, and sales rates increased year - on - year, while industrial inventories decreased [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall. The domestic market is expected to be more balanced in supply and demand [3][4]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, cotton futures prices increased slightly, and most spot prices decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory, industrial inventory, and imports decreased, while cotton outbound shipments increased. Some downstream indicators such as yarn and fabric inventory days increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, but the cotton price increase has driven up yarn prices. The supply side has some pressure from the sale of old cotton, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market [7]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, egg futures prices decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis increased significantly [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Egg - laying chick prices decreased slightly, culled chicken prices increased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has affected production. Demand has increased, and prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize [9]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, corn futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. Corn starch futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The auction on July 22 had a 27% success rate. The supply is tightening due to reduced sales and weather impacts, and demand is supported by the breeding industry [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be bullish but with limited upside. In the medium - term, supply is expected to be tight, and prices may be supported [12][13]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices increased slightly, and the basis of soybean meal decreased while that of rapeseed meal increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: US soybeans are at the bottom, and Brazilian prices are high. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic meal market is recommended for cautious long - positions, as the market is expected to be supported by potential drought in the US and high Brazilian prices [16]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: On July 22, compared to July 21, pig futures prices increased slightly, and the 9 - 11 spread decreased. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Breeding profits are low, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, with limited upside and downside. Caution is advised when chasing long positions in the far - month contracts [19].

Group 1: Oils and Fats Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Malaysian palm oil futures are range - bound, with high inventory expectations suppressing the market. Domestic palm oil futures are also in high - level shock adjustment. For soybean oil, international palm oil price advantage and potential negative US biodiesel policies are dragging down the market. With large soybean arrivals and high factory开机 rates in June, soybean oil inventory will continue to increase, and the spot basis will decline [1]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: Spot price remained unchanged at 8050 yuan in Jiangsu on June 4. Futures price (Y2509) dropped 0.35% to 7402 yuan. Basis increased by 4.18% to 648 yuan. Warehouse receipts increased by 6.12% to 18202 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Spot price in Guangdong dropped 1.71% to 8600 yuan. Futures price (P2509) fell 0.50% to 7976 yuan. Basis decreased by 14.99% to 624 yuan. The盘面 import cost dropped 0.89%, and the盘面 import profit increased 5.18% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.92% to 9320 yuan. Futures price (O1509) fell 1.05% to 8856 yuan. Basis decreased by 28.62% to 464 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: For example, the soybean - palm oil spot spread increased 21.43% to - 550 yuan, and the 2509 contract spread increased 12.30% to - 442 yuan [1]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar, which is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern. Although raw sugar has not fully entered the domestic market, future import rhythm is the focus. Domestic sugar supply - demand is generally loosening, and long - term supply increase will suppress sugar prices [3]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 increased 0.12% to 5624 yuan/ton, and sugar 2509 increased 0.28% to 5748 yuan/ton. The 1 - 9 spread decreased 7.83% to - 124 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased 1.78% to 335901, and the warehouse receipts decreased 1.40% to 30300 [3]. - **Spot Market**: Nanning's price remained unchanged at 2090 yuan, while Kunming's price dropped 0.67% to 5910 yuan. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the spreads between imported sugar and domestic prices also changed [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 11.63% and 26.07% respectively. The national cumulative sales ratio increased 12.97% to 65.22%, and the industrial inventory decreased 8.20% to 386.26 million tons [3]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The downstream of the cotton industry is weak, with falling product prices, slightly lower开机 rates, and rising inventory. However, the spot basis is still strong, and there are concerns about the end - of - period available inventory. Short - term domestic cotton prices may be in a weak - shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the macro and downstream demand [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: Cotton 2509 increased 0.04% to 13265 yuan/ton, and cotton 2601 remained unchanged at 13320 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased 8.33% to - 55 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased 2.55% to 525386, and the warehouse receipts decreased 0.77% to 10977 [6]. - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang's arrival price (3128B) dropped 0.10% to 14431 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) dropped 0.06% to 14544 yuan [6]. - **Industry Situation**: North China's inventory decreased 7.7% to 383.40, and the industrial inventory decreased 2.6% to 92.90. The import volume decreased 14.3% to 6.00 million tons [6]. Group 4: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In June, the inventory of laying hens will reach the highest level in the past five years, increasing the supply pressure. The super - strong plum rain season has weakened the off - season demand. The egg market's supply - demand imbalance may reach a peak, and egg prices are expected to be weak [9]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot**: The egg 09 contract increased 0.21% to 3730 yuan/500KG, and the egg 07 contract decreased 0.69% to 2877 yuan/500KG. The basis decreased 76.00% to - 6 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 7 spread increased 3.39% to 853 [9]. - **Industry Indicators**: The price of day - old chicks decreased 1.20% to 4.10 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens decreased 6.45% to 4.79 yuan/jin. The egg - feed ratio increased 0.80% to 2.53, and the breeding profit increased 7.32% to - 15.96 yuan/feather [9]. Group 5: Meal and Oilseed Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, but the market is worried about the impact of tariff policies on demand. Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and the domestic cost of soybean meal has support. With sufficient soybean arrivals and increasing oil - mill开机 rates, the supply pressure in the domestic market will increase. Two types of meal are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and the main soybean meal contract is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3000 yuan [13]. Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2900 yuan. The futures price (M2509) increased 0.14% to 2939 yuan. The basis decreased 11.43% to - 39 yuan. The Brazilian 7 - month ship - period's盘面 import profit decreased 21.7% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu dropped 3.54% to 2450 yuan. The futures price (RM2509) decreased 0.55% to 2543 yuan. The basis decreased 447.06% to - 93 yuan. The Canadian 7 - month ship - period's盘面 import profit decreased 336.36% [13]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3980 yuan, and the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 3640 yuan. The warehouse receipts decreased 3.78% to 25660 [13]. - **Spreads**: For example, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased 25.00% to 450 yuan, and the 2509 contract spread increased 4.76% to 396 yuan [13]. Group 6: Pork Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of live pigs fluctuates slightly. The slaughter weight is decreasing, and the secondary fattening's impact is limited. The supply - demand situation has limited improvement, and the demand after the Dragon Boat Festival is weak. Although there are still breeding profits, the market's ability to expand production is cautious. The upward and downward trends of the pig price are both limited, and attention should be paid to the support level of 13500 yuan on the futures market [16][17]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The main contract's basis decreased 9.76% to 740 yuan/ton. The 2507 contract increased 0.34% to 13255 yuan, and the 2509 contract decreased 0.15% to 13490 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread decreased 21.67% to 235 yuan. The main contract's open interest increased 1.55% to 78586 [16]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions changed slightly. The daily slaughter volume decreased 0.95% to 142950 heads. The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 20.60 yuan, and the weekly price of piglets and sows also remained unchanged [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The self - breeding profit decreased 26.05% to 36 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased 425.34% to - 84 yuan/head. The number of fertile sows decreased 0.02% to 4038 million heads [16]. Group 7: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The remaining grain at the grass - roots level has been mostly sold. Traders' inventory is tight, and they are reluctant to sell, making the corn price easy to rise and difficult to fall. Downstream deep - processing enterprises are reducing production to destock, and feed enterprises are increasing the proportion of wheat substitution. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap will support the corn price, but in the short - term, the concentrated listing of wheat will limit the corn's demand. The corn price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy - related releases [19][21]. Summary by Directory - **Corn Futures**: Corn 2507 increased 0.34% to 2333 yuan/ton. The basis of Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price decreased 160.00% to - 3 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread increased 14.81% to - 23 yuan. The open interest decreased 1.87% to 1923031, and the warehouse receipts increased 0.46% to 217020 [19]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2507 increased 0.49% to 2664 yuan/ton. The basis decreased 33.33% to 26 yuan. The 7 - 9 spread increased 9.21% to - 75 yuan. The open interest increased 0.55% to 325283, and the warehouse receipts decreased 0.21% to 24421 [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease in the five major steel products has led to a reduction in the raw material procurement demand due to the decline in steel product prices. The high profit rate of steel mills and the significant reduction in molten iron production, combined with the pre - empted external demand exports, will result in a distinct pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand. The relatively high inventory level of iron ore ports also exerts pressure on prices [2]. - For coking coal, production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishment motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline in molten iron production and the continuous increase in coking coal supply, the far - month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as the coking coal price falls, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, but steel mills have initiated a second price cut, squeezing the profit of coking enterprises. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakens, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increases. The pattern of coke supply surplus remains unchanged, and coal and coke generally follow the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment - driven rise in the rebar market is gradually weakening. Although the demand decline rhythm is relatively slow in the short term, steel supply increases while demand decreases. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even increase in mid - June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. With the phased repair of long - process steel mill profits, blast furnace restarts continue, and supply remains at a high level. External demand exports are pre - empted, and real estate investment has declined across the board, resulting in a pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand [2]. - For glass, although there are rumors of planned cold - repair and production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and the production and sales situation has improved, there is no substantial positive in the fundamentals. The supply of float glass has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased from a two - month high, which has improved market sentiment. However, in the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. There is a lack of driving force to push up prices during the transition from the peak season to the off - season [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of stock indexes was mixed in the previous trading day. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The financial data of state - owned enterprises showed that the total operating income was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased slightly. The asset - liability ratio increased slightly. The issuance of local government bonds showed certain characteristics. The sentiment in the stock index futures market has improved, and long positions can be held. The bond market has narrow - range fluctuations, and long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [2][4]. - For precious metals, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and commodity attributes of gold, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and trade policies, all affect the gold price. Although the logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short - term fluctuations. The silver price also shows high - level oscillation [4]. - For pulp, the decrease in raw material prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The low profitability of the papermaking industry, high inventory, and weak demand during the off - season are negative factors. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills may boost market sentiment, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For logs, the daily shipment volume of log ports has increased slightly, but it is difficult to reach a high level due to the off - season. The supply from New Zealand is expected to decrease, and the inventory has increased slightly. The cost - side negative factors may weaken, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Log prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For oils and fats, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly due to increased production and decreased domestic consumption. Although the export potential may be stimulated, the production increase is higher than the export increase, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant, and it is the traditional consumption off - season, so the price is expected to show an oscillatory and bearish trend [6]. - For meal products, the new - crop inventory of US soybeans may further tighten, but the large domestic soybean arrivals, increased oil mill operating rates, and improved domestic inventory have alleviated the supply pressure. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - For live pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly, with regional differences. The demand of slaughtering enterprises is relatively stable, but terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally. Although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. The cost of leading enterprises provides support, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. - For rubber, short - term supply is under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The import volume has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and inventory continues to accumulate. Rubber prices are expected to be affected by macro - sentiment and policies and maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. - For polyester products, PX prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices. PTA is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations. MEG has a relatively good short - term supply - demand situation but is subject to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. Polyester bottle - grade chips and polyester staple fibers are affected by factors such as raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, and their prices are expected to show a weakening trend with limited decline space [9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous policy - and sentiment - driven rise is losing momentum, and it will return to fundamentals. Steel demand weakens, and iron ore inventory exerts pressure. Investors who have short positions can continue to hold [2]. - Coal and coke: Coking coal production is high, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply surplus persists, and the 09 contract of coking coal may weaken. Steel mills' price cuts squeeze coking enterprise profits [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The rise momentum weakens, demand declines, and supply remains high. The rainy season will affect inventory destocking, and steel prices face pressure [2]. - Glass: There are rumors of production cuts, and production and sales have improved, but fundamentals lack substantial positives. Real estate adjustment restricts demand recovery [2]. - Soda ash: The transition from peak to off - season lacks driving force to push up prices, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Market - Stock indexes: Performance is mixed, and sector capital flows vary. Financial data of state - owned enterprises and local government bond issuance have certain characteristics. Stock index futures sentiment improves, and long positions can be held [2][4]. - Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and bond prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors affect prices. Although the driving logic has not reversed, policies may cause short - term fluctuations. Prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Raw material price decline weakens support, and off - season demand is weak. Price increase notices may boost sentiment, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Logs: Shipment volume increases slightly, supply from New Zealand may decrease, and inventory accumulates. Cost - side negatives weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats and Meal Products - Oils and fats: Malaysian palm oil inventory increases, and the supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant. It is the consumption off - season, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and bearish [6]. - Meal products: US soybean inventory may tighten, but domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Slaughter weight increases with regional differences, demand is stable but terminal consumption weakens. Secondary fattening supports prices, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, import volume changes, and tire enterprise inventory accumulates. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, MEG is subject to macro - sentiment, and PR and PF are affected by raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, with prices expected to show a weakening trend [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of the futures price falling and adjusting again due to potential negative factors such as increasing production and expected significant inventory growth at the end of May. The domestic palm oil futures may fluctuate after breaking through 8,200 yuan and could potentially rise to 8,300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: If the proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US is passed, the use of soybean oil in biofuel production will increase significantly. Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil will gradually increase after the Dragon Boat Festival, which may drag down the market [1]. Meals - The US soybean trend is strong due to eased Sino - US trade tensions and downward - adjusted estimates of US soybean production and ending stocks. However, the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant without obvious positive support. The basis is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs is stable with little change in the supply - demand relationship. The price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. The 09 contract has returned above 14,000, with limited upward and downward movement [5][6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the corn market is stable with a strong bottom support. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. The corn starch market shows some fluctuations in relevant indicators [7]. Sugar - The short - term raw sugar is expected to fluctuate widely between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to remain volatile within the range of 5,800 - 5,950 yuan per ton [11]. Cotton - The downstream of the cotton industry is gradually weakening, and the supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 13,500 - 13,700 yuan per ton [12]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the demand is average in most markets. The price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize this week [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On May 14, compared with May 13, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil generally increased, with different changes in basis, spreads, and inventory [1]. - **Policy Impact**: The proposed extension of the 45Z clean - fuel tax credit policy in the US may increase the demand for soybean oil in biofuel production [1]. Meals - **Price Changes**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed various changes in spot, futures, basis, and spreads on May 14 compared with May 13. The import crushing margins also changed [2]. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean market is strong, while the Brazilian supply pressure is being realized, and the domestic soybean arrival is abundant [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the futures prices of some pig contracts increased, and the spot prices were stable. There were also changes in indicators such as slaughter volume, prices of piglets and sows, and breeding profits [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand relationship is stable, and the price is expected to remain volatile [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the corn futures price increased slightly, and there were changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators. The corn starch market also had corresponding changes in prices and indicators [7]. - **Market Situation**: The corn market has strong bottom support in the short term and is expected to rise in the long term due to supply - demand changes [7]. Sugar - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the futures and spot prices of sugar changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and import - related prices. The production and sales of sugar showed year - on - year growth [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic sugar price will remain volatile due to supply - demand factors [11]. Cotton - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the cotton futures and spot prices changed, and there were also changes in basis, spreads, and inventory - related indicators. The downstream industry showed some changes in production, sales, and inventory [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate due to supply - demand and macro factors [12]. Eggs - **Price and Indicator Changes**: On May 15, the prices of egg contracts, egg - related products, and indicators such as egg - to - feed ratio and breeding profit changed [14]. - **Market Outlook**: The egg price is expected to decline slightly and then stabilize due to supply - demand conditions [14].