"十四五"以来，财富AUM从2.52万亿元增至3.95万亿元；财富客户从346万户增至481万户；过去三年帮 助客户实现资产增值超过2000亿元……这一组组跳动的数据，正是兴业银行在服务共同富裕中擦亮"财 富银行"名片的坚实注脚，也勾勒出财富管理"飞入寻常百姓家"的动人图景。 党的二十届四中全会对扎实推进全体人民共同富裕作出战略部署。在推进共同富裕进程中，兴业银行将 财富管理作为增加居民收入、服务共同富裕的重要抓手，坚持"服务大多数人而不是少数人"，持续完 善"大投行、大财富、大资管"体系，携手千家万户稳步迈向共同富裕新征程。 "要理财、找兴业" 打造普罗大众的财富主场 "我已经在兴业银行买理财逾十年了，兴业银行的服务、权益活动让我们放心，现在他们的服务越来越 好了！"家住杭州的鲁女士对兴业银行的理财服务赞不绝口。 11月18日，以"财富同行，共赴富裕"为主题的"11·18理财节"活动启动，兴业银行创新推出"线上互动+线 下沙龙+定制服务"三位一体模式，掀起全民理财热潮。 线上，兴业银行工作人员化身"种草官" 精准触达客户；线下,该行将网点进行全覆盖主题布置，营造出 浓厚氛围，同时，将理财节嵌入代发入企、线下 ...

2026年初，银行同业负债端出现明显收缩迹象。Wind数据显示，国有大行和股份制银行同业存单净融 资规模已连续三个月为负，且负值逐月扩大；与此同时，同业存单发行利率持续下行，1月底已降至 1.59%附近。 多位业内人士指出，在存款端改善、央行持续呵护流动性以及信贷投放节奏偏缓等多重因 素共同作用下，银行对同业负债的边际依赖度明显下降，银行体系呈现出"钱多不紧"的运行状态，并对 债券市场与理财产品收益形成一系列连锁影响。 ...

Core Insights - A significant wealth migration is underway as deposit interest rates decline, prompting individuals to seek alternative investment options that offer better returns than traditional savings accounts [1] - Predictions indicate that over 50 trillion yuan of residents' medium to long-term deposits will mature by 2026, leading to a potential reshaping of asset allocation strategies among residents [1] Banking Sector Changes - Customers are experiencing a drastic reduction in deposit interest rates, with rates dropping from 3.1% to 1.55% [1] - Banks are responding by offering cash management and fixed-income products that provide slightly higher returns than traditional deposits, aiming to retain clients [1][2] Fund Market Dynamics - Public funds, particularly low-volatility funds, are expected to attract significant inflows as investors seek alternatives to maturing deposits [1] - The demand for "fixed income plus" and fund of funds (FOF) products has surged, with many new products selling out quickly and existing ones seeing substantial inflows [3][4] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are shifting towards a combination of cash management, short to medium-term fixed-income products, and "fixed income plus" funds that include equity components for potential higher returns [1][2] - Banks are increasingly acting as "solution providers" in the asset management ecosystem, utilizing FOF and other strategies to allocate large volumes of funds effectively [2][3] Product Performance - Recent reports indicate that several FOF products have achieved significant net value growth, with some exceeding 66% in returns [6] - The trend of limiting purchases for certain funds has re-emerged, reflecting strong demand and a strategy to manage capacity and liquidity [6][7] Market Trends - The popularity of "fixed income plus" and FOF products is attributed to their ability to provide stability and flexibility, which has been validated by recent market performance [7][9] - Fund companies are enhancing their organizational capabilities and product competitiveness to prepare for the influx of funds from maturing deposits [8][10] Channel Cooperation - Fund companies are focusing on optimizing partnerships with banks by developing customized products and providing training to enhance the understanding of fund performance [10] - The collaboration with banks is shifting towards offering stable, low-volatility solutions that meet the evolving needs of depositors [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the maturity of medium to long-term fixed deposits in 2026 is expected to reach 45 trillion yuan, significantly impacting financial products and markets [8][10]. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Impact - The total amount of medium to long-term fixed deposits maturing in 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 35 trillion yuan and 45 trillion yuan, respectively, which is notably higher than the 20-30 trillion yuan range in previous years [8]. - A significant portion of the 2026 maturity will come from three-year fixed deposits initiated in 2023, estimated to be around 38 trillion yuan [10]. - The structure of fixed deposit maturities is closely linked to income expectations and interest rate comparisons, with a notable increase in long-term deposits during periods of low income confidence [5][10]. Group 2: Financial Products and Market Outlook - Short-term fixed deposit products, dividend insurance, and cash management products are expected to benefit from the upcoming maturity of fixed deposits, as consumers are likely to prefer shorter-term options due to declining interest rates [10][15]. - The equity and short-term bond markets are anticipated to gain from increased allocations from insurance funds and cash management products, while the liquidity management of banks may lead to increased volatility in the money and long-term bond markets [15][18]. Group 3: Banking Sector Implications - The shortening of deposit terms is expected to help banks control costs, with a projected narrowing of net interest margin decline to 3-4 basis points by 2026 due to lower deposit costs [18][20]. - Enhanced liquidity management will be required as the shift towards shorter-term deposits and non-bank deposits may negatively impact key liquidity indicators for banks [21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in wealth management scale, reaching a historical high of 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [14][18] - Despite a slight decrease in payout returns, the enthusiasm for new product fundraising remains strong, with an average single fundraising amount of 22.64 billion yuan, reflecting a robust willingness among investors to shift deposits into wealth management [20][21] - The report emphasizes the need for wealth management to adapt to industry changes by enhancing absolute return defenses and diversifying product offerings to cater to different customer segments [56][57] Summary by Sections 1. Liability Side: "Deposit Migration" Catalyzes High Growth in Wealth Management - Wealth management scale has reached a historical peak, with a growth of 2.18 trillion yuan in 2025, and Q3 typically being a peak season for wealth management [14][18] - Wealth management generated 179.2 billion yuan in returns for investors in Q3 2025, despite a slight decline compared to Q2 [17][21] 2. Asset Side: Increasing Allocation to Deposits & Repos, Building a Low-Volatility Safety Net - By the end of Q3 2025, cash and bank deposits accounted for 27.5% of the asset allocation, the highest recorded [25][27] - The proportion of wealth management supporting the real economy has decreased to 65%, marking a new low [35] 3. Competitive Landscape: Non-Licensed Banks' Wealth Management Market Share Falls Below 10% - By the end of Q3 2025, the scale of wealth management from non-licensed banks was 2.85 trillion yuan, representing 8.87% of the total market, the first time falling below 10% [37][38] - The report notes a trend of smaller banks transitioning to pure distribution models to enhance their income from wealth management products [51][52] 4. Conclusion: Upholding Absolute Returns and Enhancing Customer Segmentation, A Multi-Asset Future is Promising - The report suggests that low-volatility wealth management products may serve as the first stop for outflowing deposits, with a focus on maintaining fundraising momentum through diversified product offerings [56][57]

Core Viewpoint - The banking and wealth management industry is shifting focus from holiday-specific financial products to existing products with stable historical returns, reflecting a more rational investment approach among clients [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - This year, the market for holiday-specific financial products is notably "cold," with a preference for existing financial products that have demonstrated stable performance [3][4]. - Major financial institutions, including Ping An Wealth Management and China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, are promoting "holiday wealth management" themes, emphasizing short-term products with low to medium risk [3][4]. Group 2: Product Performance - Several recommended financial products have shown impressive historical returns, with one product from ICBC achieving a monthly annualized return of 12.01% and a lifetime annualized return of 8.42% [6]. - Other products from Huayin Wealth Management and China Merchants Bank also reported strong performance, with annualized returns of 7.43% and 5.73% respectively [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly focused on stable, low-risk financial products due to previous market fluctuations and the transition to net value-based financial products [5][7]. - The average annualized return for existing open-ended fixed-income products is significantly lower than the returns of the promoted products, indicating a competitive advantage for these offerings [7].

Scale - The total wealth management scale increased by 0.72 trillion, returning to over 30 trillion [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the wealth management balance reached 30.67 trillion, reflecting a 2.4% growth since the beginning of the year [1][2] - The Q2 single-season wealth management scale increment was 1.53 trillion, lower than the 1.89 trillion from the same period last year, but higher than the average increment of 0.64 trillion from 2021 to 2023 [1][3] Product Characteristics - Open-ended products maintained a stable proportion of around 80%, while cash management products decreased to 6.4 trillion [5] - Open-ended products contributed 86.1% of the scale increment in the first half of the year, with significant growth from minimum holding period products [5] - Fixed income products accounted for 97.2% of the total wealth management products, with a slight increase in the proportion of mixed and equity products [8][10] Asset Allocation - As of the end of Q2 2025, cash and bank deposits reached 8.18 trillion, increasing by 500 billion since the beginning of the year [11] - The allocation to public funds significantly increased by 450 billion, reaching 1.38 trillion, indicating a growing preference for high liquidity assets [12] - The overall asset allocation showed a tendency to increase high liquidity assets while reducing credit bonds [9][11] Market Dynamics - The "disintermediation" effect is expected to support the growth of wealth management scale, although potential disturbances may increase in the second half of the year [13][14] - The low interest rate environment and the need for stable returns are driving the demand for fixed income products, while cash management products face challenges due to lower yields [15] - Regulatory changes are anticipated to enhance the asset management capabilities of wealth management institutions, focusing on quality over scale [16]

Core Insights - Cash management products are gaining investor attention due to their flexible redemption, lower risk, and relatively stable returns, especially as bank deposit rates decline [1][2] - The average 7-day annualized yield for cash management products is 1.38%, with some bank products reaching nearly 3%, while money market funds average around 1.25% [2] - Regulatory policies have aligned the liquidity and redemption mechanisms of cash management products and money market funds, narrowing the gap in risk and return [2][4] Group 1 - Cash management products include cash management wealth management and money market funds, suitable for low-risk tolerance and high liquidity needs [2] - Investors should prioritize products from large institutions, considering factors like yield, redemption mechanisms, and fees [1][2] - High-yield cash management products may have small initial scales and could see yields drop as more funds are added [1] Group 2 - The liquidity design of cash management products, including subscription and redemption confirmation days, is crucial for investors [4] - Significant yield differences between products only become apparent with larger investment amounts, suggesting that investors should consider recent yield performance [4] - To enhance overall investment returns, investors should balance their portfolios across various asset classes like stocks, bonds, and gold based on their risk preferences [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding retail risks, indicating that new regulations may still allow for adjustments [4] - The impact of debt reduction on credit may weaken, with funds continuing to be activated [4] - The current environment shows a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with major banks adding 2.6 trillion yuan in April and May [4] Summary by Sections Deposit Side - Major banks continue to see a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with a cumulative addition of 2.6 trillion yuan in April and May [4] - The report indicates a potential shift in deposits due to interest rate cuts, leading to a "migration effect" towards wealth management and other financial products [4][5] - There is a concern about the shortening of liability terms and reduced stability as banks prefer short-term deposits over long-term ones [5] Asset Side - Loan demand remains weak, with a shift from bill financing to short-term loans [6] - There is a notable increase in bond investments by small and medium-sized banks, suggesting a recovery in bond allocation demand if funding costs decrease [6] - The report highlights a potential preference shift towards credit bonds as the cost of interbank deposits decreases [7] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, expecting stable growth in revenue and net profit in 2025 [8] - It recommends stocks with stable dividends, including Citic Bank and Everbright Bank, while also suggesting cyclical stocks like Suzhou Bank and others [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks in China, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1%, poses challenges for money market funds and cash management products, prompting a need for strategies to adapt to this low-yield environment by learning from overseas experiences [2][3]. Group 1: Overview of Low-Interest Rate Environments - In the U.S., the money market fund (MMF) yield entered the "1%" era during three periods: 2003-2004, 2009-2017, and 2020-2021, with significant capital outflows during low yield periods [5][6][7]. - The Eurozone experienced a decline in MMF scale during low-interest periods, but saw an increase during negative interest rates due to the relative attractiveness of MMFs compared to other rates [9][10][11][12]. - Japan's MMFs faced extinction in a negative interest rate environment, with the money reserve fund (MRF) becoming dominant due to its association with securities accounts [14][16]. Group 2: Factors Influencing MMF Scale Changes - The elasticity of nominal interest rates to policy rate changes leads to different behaviors in fund flows, with MMFs showing higher sensitivity compared to bank deposits [21][22]. - The different approaches to negative interest rate policies in Europe and Japan resulted in contrasting outcomes for MMFs, with European funds expanding while Japanese funds contracted [42][43][45]. - Inflation impacts real interest rates, influencing market preferences for low-risk assets, with higher real rates encouraging savings and benefiting MMFs [48][49]. Group 3: Strategies for Fund Managers - Fund managers in low-interest environments often reduce fees to enhance client returns, as seen in the U.S. during the 2003-2004 period [51][56]. - Seeking yield through credit and liquidity premiums becomes crucial, with U.S. MMFs increasing allocations to commercial paper and corporate notes during low yield periods [52]. - Building product ecosystems and increasing overseas investments are strategies employed by fund managers to maintain competitiveness in challenging environments [54][58]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - Overseas regulators have generally moved towards net asset value (NAV) reform for MMFs to ensure industry health in low-rate environments, with Europe implementing market value-based valuations [61]. - Japan's earlier reforms in MMF valuation have set a precedent for adapting to low-interest conditions, allowing for more flexible investment strategies [61]. Group 5: Implications for China - China's dual-track interest rate system means that the relationship between money market rates and deposit rates is influenced by both market and policy factors, with recent trends showing deposit rates adjusting more rapidly [63][64]. - The future of MMFs in China will depend on whether money market rates fall significantly below deposit rates, with current trends suggesting a continued advantage for MMFs [70]. - A potential decline in inflation could further elevate real interest rates, benefiting low-risk assets like MMFs [71].