Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.604 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while net profit decreased by 15.8% to 676 million yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its new product development strategy and actively engaging with large B-end and new retail customers, aiming for a multi-category and multi-channel layout [2]. - The company is facing short-term pressure on profitability due to rising raw material costs and increased depreciation and manufacturing expenses from new facilities [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.54 billion, 1.71 billion, and 1.90 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 3.4%, 11.3%, and 11.2% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 20.52%, down 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 8.89%, down 1.75 percentage points [3]. - The company achieved revenues of 3.759 billion yuan from frozen prepared foods, 2.416 billion yuan from frozen dishes, and 1.241 billion yuan from frozen noodles and rice in H1 2025 [2]. - The company’s revenue from various channels includes 6.043 billion yuan from distribution, 0.555 billion yuan from direct sales, 0.423 billion yuan from supermarkets, and 0.583 billion yuan from new retail and e-commerce, with year-on-year changes of -1.15%, +7.22%, -1.76%, and +20.92% respectively [2]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The projected revenue for 2025 is 16.213 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.2% [5]. - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 4.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 [5][10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.37% in 2025, increasing to 12.68% by 2027 [9].

Summary of Company and Industry Insights from Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anjijia Food - **Industry**: Frozen Food Industry Key Financial Performance - **2024 Revenue**: 101.04 billion CNY, up 7.85% YoY, with major contributions from: - **Prepared Foods**: 78.39 billion CNY, growth of 15.4 billion CNY, driven by rapid growth in fresh-keeping products, revenue share increased to 10.5%, expected price close to 11.5 CNY/kg [2][3] - **Frozen Dishes**: 43.5 billion CNY, growth of 4.7%, notable increases in small crispy meat and shrimp slides, but shrimp tails declined due to price fluctuations [2][3] - **Frozen Noodles and Rice**: Close to 25 billion CNY, down 3.14% YoY, impacted by industry competition and price declines [2][3] - **Gross Margin**: 23.3% for 2024, up 0.09 percentage points, with improvements in frozen prepared foods and stable margins in fresh-keeping products [2][7] - **Net Profit**: Slight increase of 0.47%, affected by increased stock incentive costs and higher investments in roasted chicken and chicken sausages [2][7] Strategic Initiatives - **Big Product Strategy**: 39 products with over 100 million CNY in revenue, accounting for 70% of total sales, with stable growth in frozen fish products [2][5] - **Dividend Policy**: Increased payout ratio from 30% to 40%, with a cash dividend ratio of 65% for 2024, leading to a total payout ratio of 70% [4][12] - **New Product Strategy for 2025**: Focus on cost-effectiveness for B-end products and upgrading C-end products, with expected growth of 15%-20% for fresh-keeping products [4][16] Market Dynamics - **Channel Performance**: - **Distributor Channel**: 9% growth, reaching 123 billion CNY - **Direct Sales**: Down 4% due to decreased sales in chain stores - **E-commerce**: Slight decline of 2%, totaling 3.12 billion CNY, mainly due to the shutdown of the Qingliu 5 e-commerce platform [6] - **Competition**: Price competition in frozen noodles has intensified since 2023, with promotional efforts increasing to capture market share, leading to profit pressure [21][22] Future Outlook - **2025 Q1 Performance**: Revenue of 36 billion CNY, down approximately 4% YoY; net profit of 3.95 billion CNY, down 10% YoY, affected by consumer environment and seasonal factors [8][9] - **Government Subsidies**: Increased by approximately 30 million CNY in Q1 due to the return of previously owed funds, positively impacting financial status [10] - **Cost Control**: Anticipated increase in costs due to raw material prices, but efforts in bulk procurement and centralized production are expected to mitigate impacts [36] Industry Trends - **Frozen Hot Pot and Noodle Market**: Expected growth despite price competition, with signs of recovery noted in April [18][19] - **Small Enterprises**: Many small businesses are at breakeven points, reflecting intense competition and survival pressures [27][28] - **Market Share**: The company maintains a leading market share across various segments, with ongoing efforts to innovate and respond to market demands [28] Conclusion - The company is positioned for moderate growth in 2024 and 2025, with strategic initiatives focused on product innovation, cost control, and market expansion. The competitive landscape remains challenging, but the company’s strong market position and proactive strategies are expected to sustain its growth trajectory.

证券研究报告：食品饮料|公司点评报告 个股表现 -30% -26% -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 安井食品 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 发布时间：2025-05-06 股票投资评级 买入|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 76.30 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）2.93 / 2.93 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）224 / 224 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 102.97 / 68.93 | | 资产负债率(%) | 23.6% | | 市盈率 | 15.02 | | 第一大股东 | 福建国力民生科技发展 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 安井食品(603345) 稳守龙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% within the next six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining its leading position despite high base effects, with a slight increase in revenue and net profit for 2024 [5]. - The company is focusing on a big product strategy, with significant contributions from key products like frozen fish and meat products, while facing challenges in certain segments due to competition and market dynamics [6]. - The management is prioritizing new product development and strategic partnerships with major retailers to enhance profitability and scale [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenues of 15.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with net profit slightly up by 0.46% [5][11]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a decline in revenue and net profit, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 23.3%, with a net profit margin of 9.82%, reflecting stable profitability despite rising costs [7][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 16.192 billion yuan and 17.560 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 7.04% and 8.45% [9][11]. - The forecast for net profit in 2025 is set at 1.622 billion yuan, representing a growth of 9.25% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase to 5.53 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.79 [9][11].