来源：尺度商业 文 | 董武英 编辑 | 刘振涛 新年以来，A股半导体龙头兆易创新股价持续上涨，三个交易日涨幅超过20%，1月7日收盘，总市值也 高达1753亿元。而这一切与一则消息有关。 打造千亿半导体龙头 2004年初夏，在美国一家存储行业上市公司担任项目主管的朱一明决定辞职创业。当时没有人会想到， 这个举动将改变中国半导体行业发展历史。 朱一明决定辞职的导火索是与领导在产品和公司理念上的冲突，但却是其"不安分"、爱挑战的性格面对 硅谷天花板时的必然结果。 朱一明出生于1972年，少年天才，17岁就考入了清华大学物理系。虽然学的是物理，但朱一明极擅长编 程，靠着帮其他公司写程序，90年代末他就能一年挣到30多万元。打工过程中，他了解到当时芯片都是 由美国设计，认为芯片技术含量更高，因此赴美留学，学起了电子工程专业，毕业后顺利进入硅谷公司 任职。 当时的朱一明发现，存储行业曾从美国转移至日本，再转移至韩国和中国台湾，未来中国大陆存储行业 也将有大展身手的机会，未必没有诞生"中国版三星"的可能。因此，他设计了一款SRAM（静态随机存 储器）存储芯片，创办了公司，并开始寻找投资人。 2005年，在投资人的支持下 ...

SK海力士警告称，DRAM供应短缺状况将持续至2028年。此前，包括瑞银，摩根大通，野村证券在内 的国际大行均预测，DRAM短缺将持续至2027年。 在AI引爆存储需求以及行业产能调整等多重因素的影响下，过去几个月，全球存储荒愈演愈烈。据全 球存储三巨头之一，韩国SK海力士的一份意外曝光的内部分析文件，揭示了存储市场供需严重失衡的 局面。 研究机构认为，目前国内相关设备厂商经过长时间的发展，产品性能不断迭代，可覆盖制程以及工艺节 点不断优化，已经在多个领域实现了国产替代。在AI存储需求爆发与供应链自主可控的双重驱动下， 国内半导体设备与材料企业有望持续受益于这一轮超级周期，实现技术突破与市场扩张的良性循环。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 瑞银上周预计，DRAM供应短缺预计将持续至2027年第一季度，其中DDR内存的需求料增长20.7%，远 超供应增速。NAND闪存的短缺态势则预计将持续至2026年第三季度。 ...

Industry Perspective - Semiconductor equipment is the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry, with significant growth potential driven by storage expansion and domestic substitution [1] - According to SEMI, the semiconductor equipment market will maintain a 33.2% share as the largest single market globally in the first half of 2025, with leading domestic companies showing impressive performance [1] - The combined revenue of eight leading domestic companies is expected to grow by 37.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 23.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Investment Logic - The global semiconductor market has entered a strong recovery cycle, with the market expected to grow by 18.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 15.4% for the entire year [2] - AI technology is driving a surge in storage demand, with significant supply-demand gaps pushing prices higher; NAND and DRAM prices are expected to rise by 5-10% and 13-18%, respectively, by Q4 2025 [2] Domestic Storage Leaders - Domestic storage companies are accelerating capacity expansion, with Longxin Storage starting its IPO process and Jiangsu Changjiang Storage's third-phase project being officially established [3] - The introduction of 3D DRAM technology and advancements in NAND stacking are expected to significantly increase the market for etching and thin-film deposition equipment, with projected growth of 1.7 times and 1.8 times, respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for order growth and performance realization in the domestic semiconductor equipment sector [4] - Key beneficiaries include companies like Zhongwei Company, which is expected to benefit from storage expansion and 3D technology iterations [4] - Other recommended companies include North Huachuang, which has a broad product line, and Huahai Qingke, Zhongke Feice, and Jingce Electronics, which are rapidly increasing their domestic market share in specific segments [4]

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - 35 stocks were listed on the institutional leaderboard today, with 15 stocks seeing net buying and 20 stocks experiencing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were Yongtai Technology (CNY 438 million), Tianji Shares (CNY 210 million), and Wanrun Technology (CNY 163 million) [1] Group 2: Storage Industry Insights - NAND flash contract prices surged by 50% in November, driven by SanDisk's price increase, causing disruptions in the storage supply chain [3] - Major manufacturers like Transcend and Apacer have paused shipments to reassess pricing due to expectations of further price increases [3] - The global NAND Flash bit demand is projected to exceed 200EB by 2026, with AI driving increased storage needs across various data types [3] Group 3: Consumer Sector Trends - The popularity of "milk skin candy hawthorn" has surged, leading to long queues and high prices in cities like Shanghai, indicating a trend in consumer behavior [5] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in CPI for October, with core CPI rising to its highest level since March 2024 [5] - Analysts suggest that the need to expand domestic demand is becoming more critical, with expectations for increased fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment in 2026 [5]

Summary of the Conference Call on Huicheng Co., Ltd. and New Wind Technology Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: New Wind Technology, a company established in 2019, focuses on DRAM packaging and testing, with a complete capability from wafer testing to packaging testing [2][5][6] - **Industry**: The memory chip market, particularly DRAM, is the largest chip market globally, with China's demand exceeding 600 billion RMB [2][8] Key Points and Arguments Shareholding Structure and Control - Huicheng and its partners hold approximately 57% of New Wind Technology, with Huicheng directly holding 18.44% and indirectly holding 27.5% through funds [2][3] - Recent transactions involved Huicheng purchasing 18.44% of shares for 90.48 million RMB and acquiring an additional 44.57% from existing major shareholders, totaling 63.01% of shares transferred [3] Future Plans and Financing - New Wind plans to initiate 400 to 500 million RMB in equity financing and 100 to 200 million RMB in bank debt financing by Q4 2025 to support capacity expansion [3][14] - The company aims to increase its production capacity from 20,000 wafers per month in 2025 to 40,000 in 2026 and ultimately to 100,000 to 120,000 by 2027 [6][10] Market Position and Customer Base - New Wind's primary customer is Changxin Storage, which is expected to increase its production capacity from 250,000 wafers per month to 400,000 by 2026 [8] - The company aims to become one of the top suppliers to Changxin, leveraging its close relationship and geographical advantages [8][11] Technological Advantages - New Wind has significant advantages in 3D DRAM packaging, excelling in key metrics such as flatness, hole size, and warpage [2][11] - The company is also expanding into customized UFS products and 3D CUBE products, targeting a market size expected to reach hundreds of billions [12] Revenue Growth Potential - If New Wind captures 20% of the domestic DDR and LPDDR packaging market, it could generate an additional 1.65 billion RMB in revenue [13] - The company is expected to achieve significant growth through capacity expansion and the introduction of high-value-added products [13] Strategic Partnerships - Huicheng has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Huadong Technology to jointly develop storage chip packaging services, enhancing competitiveness in the DRAM packaging market [3][26] Competitive Landscape - New Wind is one of only five companies in China capable of 3D DRAM packaging, positioning it favorably against competitors [8][19] - The company is focused on optimizing its processes and maintaining a competitive edge in the evolving 3D DRAM market [19] Future Outlook - The storage industry, particularly the DRAM sector, is expected to experience prolonged demand due to the rise of AI technologies, which will increase the need for high-end storage solutions [21] - New Wind's expansion plans and strategic partnerships are anticipated to contribute positively to its long-term growth and market position [22][31] Other Important Insights - New Wind's current production capacity is fully utilized, and while it is expanding, it has not yet reached economies of scale, which may delay profitability [23] - The company does not currently plan to consolidate with Huicheng but will continue to operate independently while benefiting from strategic synergies [15][22]

Core Viewpoint - Chengbang Eco-Environment Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by its semiconductor storage business, despite a net loss attributed to challenges in the ecological environment construction sector [4][18]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of CNY 206.85 million, a 112.15% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - Total profit reached CNY 4.97 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of CNY 2.99 million in the previous year, marking a 266.13% increase [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of CNY 10.44 million, a decline of 96.26% year-on-year [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 67.52 million, a 1,214.44% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Business Segments Semiconductor Storage Business - The semiconductor storage segment generated revenue of CNY 13.15 million, accounting for 63.59% of total revenue, indicating its emergence as the core business [17]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow to USD 627.6 billion in 2024, with the storage market expected to exceed USD 167 billion, reflecting a growth rate of over 81% [6]. - The company focuses on developing a comprehensive range of semiconductor storage products, including solid-state drives (SSDs) and embedded storage solutions, to meet the increasing demand driven by advancements in AI and data center technologies [8][11]. Ecological Environment Construction Business - The ecological environment construction sector faces challenges due to economic slowdowns and reduced government investment, leading to slower project settlement and declining revenues [15][17]. - The company holds various construction qualifications and has extensive experience in ecological environment projects, positioning it well for future opportunities despite current market pressures [15][18]. Market Trends - The semiconductor storage market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the increasing demand for data storage in AI applications and consumer electronics [6][7]. - The domestic market for DRAM and NAND Flash chips remains underdeveloped, with less than 10% market share, but recent technological advancements are expected to accelerate the localization process [7]. - The ongoing upgrade of consumer electronics and the expansion of data centers are contributing to a sustained increase in storage capacity and performance requirements [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing significant price increases for certain products, particularly DRAM, driven by production halts from major manufacturers rather than a surge in demand [2][5]. Price Increases - Recent reports indicate that prices for various DDR4 products have surged, with increases of up to 100% in some cases, and 50% within a month for others [2][4]. - Specific DDR4 products saw price increases of 3.95%, 15%, and 10% respectively in a week ending May 27 [4]. - The price hikes are attributed to production stoppages by major manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, which have led to a supply shortage and subsequent stockpiling by buyers [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The market is reacting to rumors of production halts, with a notable increase in demand for DDR4 and LPDDR4 products as buyers rush to secure inventory before potential shortages [5][6]. - NAND Flash products, particularly MLC NAND Flash, are also experiencing price increases due to similar production cutbacks [6][9]. Overall Market Trends - Despite localized price increases, the overall storage market is expected to grow only by 1% to 2% this year, as terminal demand has not rebounded strongly [9]. - The shift in production focus from older technologies like DDR3 and DDR4 to newer, high-performance products such as DDR5 and HBM is evident, as manufacturers aim to enhance profitability [9][10]. Technological Transition - The industry is moving towards advanced storage technologies, with a focus on HBM and QLC NAND Flash, which are deemed more suitable for AI applications [10][11]. - Companies like Micron and SK Hynix are restructuring their operations to increase HBM production capacity in response to growing market demands [11].

Core Insights - The storage industry is experiencing significant price increases for certain DRAM products, particularly DDR4 and DDR3, driven by production halts from manufacturers rather than increased demand [1][2][3] - Major manufacturers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are reportedly planning to cease production of DDR3 and DDR4 by the end of the year, leading to a supply shortage and subsequent price hikes [2][3][4] - The shift towards high-performance memory products, such as HBM and QLC NAND Flash, is becoming more pronounced as manufacturers adjust their production strategies to meet the demands of AI applications [7][8][9] Price Trends - Recent data indicates that various DDR4 products have seen significant price increases, with specific models experiencing rises of 3.95% to 15% in a single week [2] - The market has reacted to the news of potential production halts, resulting in a rush to stockpile DDR4 and LPDDR4 products, causing supply constraints and further price increases [3][4] Production Adjustments - Manufacturers are transitioning their production focus from older memory types like DDR3 and DDR4 to newer, more profitable products such as DDR5 and HBM, which are better suited for AI applications [7][8] - The NAND Flash market is also seeing price increases, particularly for MLC NAND Flash, due to reduced supply following production cutbacks by major players like Samsung [4][6] Market Outlook - Despite localized price increases, the overall storage market is expected to grow modestly by 1% to 2% this year, with some recovery anticipated in NAND Flash prices after a significant decline earlier in the year [6] - The emphasis on high-performance storage solutions is expected to continue, with companies like Micron and SK Hynix increasing their focus on HBM production to meet rising market demands [8][9]

Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Position - The company focuses on promoting domestic storage replacement and has developed full-stack independent design and development capabilities in storage technology [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage in the independent and controllable storage sector through continuous technological collaboration with industry chain investment companies [3][7] - The company has a long-term strategy centered on independent and controllable domestic production, which has led to significant advancements in storage technology [4][6] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - In 2024, the company launched a full line of high-end all-flash products suitable for AI, large models, and high-performance computing applications [3][4] - The company’s high-performance storage products have seen significant improvements in core technology competitiveness [3][6] - The company’s new high-end all-flash storage systems are expected to become a major source of revenue growth in the future [5][6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company reported a significant reduction in losses in 2024, with operating revenue and gross margin both showing year-on-year improvements [6][7] - The storage system business accounted for approximately 70% of the company's revenue in 2024, while solid-state storage contributed about 30% [6][7] - Despite high R&D investments, the company has faced challenges in translating these into immediate profit growth [5][6] Group 4: Market Expansion and Future Plans - The company plans to deepen its market penetration in AI and high-performance computing sectors to meet growing storage demands [4][5] - The completion of the Changsha storage industrial park is expected to enhance production capacity and cost control [7][8] - The company is committed to expanding its market coverage and brand influence to achieve sustained revenue growth [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue growth of 54.41% year-on-year in Q1 2025, despite a decline in storage prices, indicating successful channel and customer expansion [1][33]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with significant growth in SSD and embedded storage segments, driven by increasing demand from cloud service providers and AI applications [2][30]. - The company is progressing well with self-developed main control chips, which are expected to contribute to future growth alongside existing product lines [3][33]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.252 billion yuan, a 54.41% increase year-on-year and a 6.5% increase quarter-on-quarter. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -75 million yuan, a decrease of 138.9% year-on-year [1][33]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 5.8%, showing a year-on-year decline of 31.4 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 5.5 percentage points [1][33]. Product Lines and Market Demand - The company has established four main product lines: mobile storage, solid-state drives (SSD), embedded storage, and memory modules. In 2024, SSD revenue reached 2.3 billion yuan, a 235.46% increase, while embedded storage revenue was 843 million yuan, a 1730.60% increase [2][30]. - The demand for enterprise-level SSDs is expected to grow significantly due to increased capital expenditure from domestic cloud service providers, with the company successfully entering their supply chains [2][30]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 6.772 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 361 million yuan. The expected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 50, 42, and 28, respectively [4][33]. - The revenue growth rates for the next few years are projected at 41.9% for 2025, 22.8% for 2026, and 16.1% for 2027 [4][34]. Market Trends - The storage market is expected to see a mild recovery in prices in 2025 after a decline in 2024, driven by inventory adjustments and increased demand from OEMs [23][30]. - The global enterprise storage market is projected to grow from 26.2 billion USD in 2024 to 32.4 billion USD by 2028, indicating a strong demand for high-performance storage solutions [30][26].