智通财经记者 | 武冰聪 智通财经编辑 | 任雪松 图片来源：界面图库 新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 2月14日，第三方平台"今日酒价"监测到飞天茅台终端售价较前一日小幅下滑。13日，飞天茅台原箱酒 每瓶约为1715元/瓶。 | | 茅台飞天 | | 2026年2月14日 (公众号:今日酒价) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 26年飞天(顾) | | 53度/500ml | 1715 | 1690 ↓ | | 2 26年飞天(胶) | | 53度/500ml | 1660 | 1650 ↓ | 飞天茅台2月14日市场行情小幅下跌/图片来源：今日酒价 不同平台之间的调研结果存在些许差异，但总体来说，春节前飞天茅台终端价格仍处于波动上扬态势， 且达到了近一个月的价格小高峰。 影响本轮价格变动的主要原因是季节性市场需求增长。茅台本就是中国消费者认为具备礼赠、收藏价值 的白酒，在白酒行业深度调整题期，飞天茅台终端零售价较五粮液、国窖1573等名酒的差距缩小，进一 步促使茅台稳坐白酒春节档 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable investment rating for the Chinese liquor industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is not expected to change significantly in the next 12 to 18 months [5]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and per capita income levels. Recent years have seen consumption pressures due to economic slowdown, low investment, and policy restrictions, leading to negative revenue and profit growth for large-scale enterprises [6][8]. - The white liquor sector has been experiencing a continuous decline in production since 2017, with a "volume and price drop" scenario expected to persist into 2025 due to high inventory and slow market movement [6][14]. - The beer industry remains stable with high market concentration, but faces challenges from reduced consumption in dining and entertainment venues. The trend towards product premiumization and innovation continues to drive growth [5][26]. - Overall, the liquor industry is under pressure from weak economic recovery and consumption policies, with expectations of continued downward pressure on revenue and profits in the future [10][39]. Summary by Sections Key Points - The liquor industry's demand is significantly affected by macroeconomic conditions and per capita income. Recent economic factors have led to a decline in revenue and profit growth for large-scale enterprises [6][9]. - White liquor production has been decreasing since 2017, with a projected "volume and price drop" scenario continuing into 2025 due to high inventory levels and slow market activity [14][25]. - The beer industry maintains a high concentration level, with stable production capacity utilization. However, the reduction in dining and entertainment venues has negatively impacted beer consumption [26][37]. Analytical Approach - The analysis focuses on the credit fundamentals of the liquor industry, examining key indicators affecting consumption since 2025, including disposable income, consumer confidence, and policy adjustments [7]. Industry Fundamentals - The liquor industry's demand is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions and disposable income levels. Recent years have seen consumption pressures due to economic slowdown and policy restrictions [8][9]. - The white liquor sector has been facing a continuous decline in production, with a significant drop in output expected in 2025 due to high inventory and slow market movement [14][25]. Financial Performance - Since 2025, white liquor enterprises have generally experienced significant declines in operating performance, while beer companies have benefited from optimized product structures [39][40]. - The overall debt levels of liquor companies are low, and while debt service indicators have declined, they remain favorable. Group companies have access to financing channels that support their debt repayment capabilities [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai's Feitian continues to rise, with the 25-year Feitian scattered bottle price returning to the 1600 yuan mark, driven by seasonal demand and the company's policy interventions to stabilize prices [1][2][4]. Price Trends - As of January 28, 2026, the wholesale prices for various Moutai products have increased, with the 26-year Feitian original box priced at 1590 yuan (up 35 yuan), and the scattered bottle at 1570 yuan (up 20 yuan) [2]. - The 25-year Feitian original box is now at 1600 yuan (up 35 yuan), while the scattered bottle is at 1580 yuan (up 20 yuan) [2]. - The 24-year and 23-year Feitian products also saw price increases, indicating a general upward trend in Moutai pricing [2]. Market Dynamics - The price increase is attributed to Moutai's proactive measures to control supply and stabilize prices, alongside heightened demand during the festive season [4]. - There is a notable shortage of the Moutai horse (马茅) product, which has seen a price increase of 400 yuan over three days due to market speculation following a packaging error [3]. - Retail prices for Feitian Moutai have risen to around 1700 yuan per bottle, with significant sales volumes reported by distributors [3]. Consumer Behavior - Distributors indicate that demand is high due to the upcoming holiday season, with some products already in short supply [3]. - Consumers are advised to purchase promptly due to anticipated further price increases as the holiday approaches [3]. Stock Market Performance - Despite the rising prices of Moutai products, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has been underperforming, with a decline of 3.88% year-to-date and a notable drop of over 6% during a nine-day losing streak [5][7]. - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry may stabilize and recover, with potential opportunities for bottom-fishing in the market [6].

2026.01. 29 2025年春节前，茅台价格基本保持稳定，这一轮价格上涨也引起了市场的关注。记者从部分综合酒 商了解到，近期茅台市场需求没有出现激增的情况，比较平稳。一般腊月23日（2月10日）物流就会 停运，大部分酒商会在腊月25日（2月12日）放假，因此终端烟酒店此时开始陆续备货，带来部分需 求。 白酒独立分析师肖竹青告诉第一财经记者，本轮茅台价格上涨，主要是由于茅台主动控量稳价的政策 干预，叠加春节旺季的季节性需求因素推动。2025年12月以来，贵州茅台通过"暂停发货、削减非标 产品等控盘动作"短期稳定市场情绪，但这更多是政策调控结果，而非纯粹的市场需求反弹。 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 封图 | 第一财经 任 玉明摄 近两日，飞天茅台价格出现了一轮持续上涨，据业内人士透露，目前茅台市场需求并未出现激增的情 况，但临近年末部分烟酒店提前备货和茅台采取的控量策略，或是推动价格上涨的主要原因。 第三方报价平台显示，1月29日，2026年原箱茅台价格单瓶价格上涨20元为1610元/瓶，回升到 1600元以上，散瓶的价格保持在1570元/瓶，前几日茅台的批价还稳定在1 ...

记者在"i茅台"平台看到，1499元的普茅连续第29天在多次秒空后显示售罄。在北京多个即时零售平台显示，普茅的零售价也回升到1570元到1600元/瓶。 临近年末部分烟酒店提前备货和茅台采取的控量策略推动价格上涨。 近两日，飞天茅台价格出现了一轮持续上涨，据业内人士透露，目前茅台市场需求并未出现激增的情况，但临近年末部分烟酒店提前备货和茅台采取的控量 策略，或是推动价格上涨的主要原因。 第三方报价平台显示，1月29日，2026年原箱茅台价格单瓶价格上涨20元为1610元/瓶，回升到1600元以上，散瓶的价格保持在1570元/瓶，前几日茅台的批 价还稳定在1550元/瓶左右。 2025年春节前，茅台价格基本保持稳定，这一轮价格上涨也引起了市场的关注。记者从部分综合酒商了解到，近期茅台市场需求没有出现激增的情况，比较 平稳。一般腊月23日（2月10日）物流就会停运，大部分酒商会在腊月25日（2月12日）放假，因此终端烟酒店此时开始陆续备货，带来部分需求。 白酒独立分析师肖竹青告诉第一财经记者，本轮茅台价格上涨，主要是由于茅台主动控量稳价的政策干预，叠加春节旺季的季节性需求因素推动。2025年12 月以来，贵州茅台 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai announced at its national distributor conference that it will discontinue its distribution model starting in 2026, a significant shift that has caused considerable upheaval in the liquor industry [2][9] Group 1: Reasons for Change - The decision to eliminate the distribution model is driven by the need to alleviate financial pressure on distributors, who have been struggling with excess inventory and declining prices [3][4] - Recent market data indicated that the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, leading to a crisis among distributors [3] - The traditional distribution model has become unsustainable as consumer behavior shifts towards more rational purchasing, making the previous profit-driven approach ineffective [4][9] Group 2: Implications for Distributors - Distributors are given a two-year transition period to adapt to the new direct sales model, which will focus on three core products: Moutai 1935, Feitian Moutai, and Premium Moutai [7] - The shift means that distributors must either transform into service providers for Moutai or risk becoming marginalized in the market [7][9] - The elimination of the distribution model signals a significant reduction in the profitability of non-standard products, which previously provided additional revenue streams for distributors [7] Group 3: Consumer Impact - Consumers may experience short-term price fluctuations as distributors clear inventory, but long-term access to Feitian Moutai at prices below 1499 yuan is expected to diminish [8] - The direct sales model aims to stabilize prices rather than reduce them, giving Moutai greater control over pricing and inventory management [5][6] - The changes may deter speculative investment in Moutai, as the company is shifting focus from the financial attributes of the product back to its consumption value [8][9] Group 4: Industry-Wide Effects - Moutai's decision is likely to influence other high-end liquor brands, such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, potentially leading to a broader restructuring of the distribution system across the industry [8][9] - The move represents a proactive transformation in response to market pressures, indicating a shift towards a more controlled and transparent pricing system in the liquor market [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is implementing a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices while enhancing channel penetration to strengthen end-user reach [3] - The company is focusing on promoting mid-to-high-end products and has initiated trials for new products in key cities [3] - The financial performance shows a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 23.127 billion yuan (down 5% year-on-year) and net profit of 10.762 billion yuan (down 7% year-on-year) [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, total revenue was 6.674 billion yuan (down 10% year-on-year), and net profit was 3.099 billion yuan (down 13% year-on-year) [1][2] - The gross margin decreased by 1 percentage point to 87.17%, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin products [2] - The net profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 46.62% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with three product lines and a major product approach, adapting to consumer demand and channel changes [4] - There is an emphasis on digital transformation in channels, including the establishment of an e-commerce platform and partnerships with mainstream e-commerce and instant retail platforms [3] Earnings Forecast - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 8.26, 8.64, and 9.40 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 16, and 14 times [4] - The company anticipates steady business development in the future, driven by the expansion into low-alcohol products and deeper market penetration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, indicating resilience in performance despite industry challenges [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 231.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107.62 billion yuan, down 7.17% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 66.74 billion yuan, with a net profit of 30.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.80% and 13.07% respectively [1]. Product Performance - The company maintained a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices during the downturn, with stable pricing for high-end products [2]. - Lower-end products, particularly those with strong market foundations, performed better than high-end products [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margins for Q1-Q3 2025 were 87.11%, down 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to poor collection on high-end products [3]. - The sales and management expense ratios increased, indicating a reduction in scale effects due to declining revenue [3]. Contract Liabilities and Revenue Matching - As of Q3 2025, contract liabilities stood at 38.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.60%, reflecting normal quarterly fluctuations [4]. - Real revenue for Q3 2025, adjusted for contract liabilities, was 69.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.45% year-on-year, aligning with revenue growth trends [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 271 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 13.2%, followed by slight growth in subsequent years [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 for 2025, indicating a favorable investment recommendation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance resilience and operational toughness amidst industry demand weakness, gradually clearing inventory in an orderly manner [1] - The company adheres to a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices during the downturn, with stable pricing for high-end products and better performance for mid-tier products [2] - The gross margin is under pressure due to a shift in product mix and cost factors, with a decrease in profitability metrics observed [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 231.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 107.62 billion yuan, down 7.17% [1] - The gross margin for Q1-3 and Q3 of 2025 was 87.11% and 87.17%, respectively, reflecting a decline of 1.32 and 0.95 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company expects revenues of 271 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 13.2% year-on-year, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [4][5] Product and Market Strategy - The company focuses on optimizing channel distribution and enhancing cooperation with e-commerce platforms to increase consumer reach [2] - The performance of mid-tier products, represented by the "Old Brand Special" series, aligns well with current consumer trends, showing resilience against market pressures [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 114 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected decline of 15.4% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for digital transformation to enhance management efficiency in the medium to long term [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.32% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.729 billion yuan, a decrease of 43.67% year-on-year, with net profit of 707 million yuan, down 62.66% year-on-year [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from outside the province was 7.392 billion yuan, a decline of 43% year-on-year, while revenue from within the province was 7.121 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year [8]. - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 12.672 billion yuan, a decrease of 37% year-on-year, primarily due to the company's strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices for key products [8]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 decreased by 5.38 percentage points to 29.36%, with a gross margin decline of 0.33 percentage points to 75.02% [8]. Cost and Expenses - The company's expense ratio increased, with the selling expense ratio rising by 3.1 percentage points and the management expense ratio increasing by 1.73 percentage points [8]. - Advertising and promotional expenses amounted to 1.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.03% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced advertising costs and rebates [8]. Future Outlook - The company is actively controlling inventory, which has shown initial results, and the prices of core products remain stable [8]. - The company is expected to see marginal improvements in performance as inventory is gradually reduced, alongside a strong dividend capability [8]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 3.19 yuan and 3.41 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a valuation of 23 and 22 times [8].