以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 明年还有 M9 改款和新车 M9L，问界将从市场上、下两端扩展。 文 丨 曾兴 编辑 丨 龚方毅 我们获悉，问界 M6 计划于明年二季度上市，预计将主打 25 万元家用 SUV 市场。动力形式与 问界其他车型一致，将同时提供增程版和纯电版。一位接近赛力斯的人士表示，"问界 M6 不会 取代问界 M5，未来问界 M5 仍会继续迭代。" 今年 4 月改款的新车上市后，问界 M9 月销量连续过万，但并未超过去年同期，10 月销量回落至 8000 辆，同比减半。而从今年 5 月以来，问界 M9 的销量持续环比下滑。有投资人认为，"豪华车市 场增量空间有限，尊界 S800、极氪 9X 等都分走部分销量。" 而在 20 万元至 30 万元区间，问界的表现相对平淡。这一价格带是竞争最为激烈的细分市场之一，据 懂车帝数据，近三个月内有 18 款中大型 SUV 上市。除了新能源车扎堆，曾经主导这一市场的合资车 型、降价下沉的 30 万元级的传统燃油 SUV，都在加剧竞争。 问界 M7 曾是这一价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 110.53 billion yuan for the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Q3 revenue reached 48.13 billion yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year and 11.3% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 2025 was 339,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,800 yuan and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 700 yuan, driven by the delivery of high-end new models [2][3]. - The company delivered a total of 341,000 vehicles in the first nine months of 2025, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, but Q3 deliveries were strong at 142,000 vehicles, up 6.3% year-on-year and 9.1% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company is advancing into the humanoid robot industry through a partnership with ByteDance, leveraging AI technology to enhance its growth potential [3][4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 160.67 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 8.43 billion yuan. The forecast for 2026 and 2027 shows continued growth, with revenues reaching 202.50 billion yuan and 246.30 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 11.20 billion yuan and 13.82 billion yuan [5][9]. - The report indicates a significant increase in profitability, with a projected net profit growth rate of 41.7% for 2025 and 33.0% for 2026 [5][10]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 30 in 2025 to 18 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future landscape of the Chinese automotive market by 2030, emphasizing the potential consolidation of players and the critical role of electric vehicles (EVs) in shaping the market dynamics [1][12]. Group 1: Central Enterprises - The three central enterprises are accelerating their transition to new energy, but only Changan is showing significant change, with a likelihood of mergers or further integration among them, potentially leaving only one major player [1]. - The assessment of the fuel vehicle business dependency for the three central enterprises indicates high risks, particularly for FAW and Dongfeng, due to their reliance on joint ventures and slow transition to EVs [2]. - Changan is noted for its faster transition and lower dependency on fuel vehicles compared to its peers, positioning it better for the future [2]. Group 2: Local State-Owned Enterprises - Local state-owned enterprises like BAIC may become less relevant due to the rise of new players like Xiaomi and Li Auto, while SAIC remains a significant player but faces profitability challenges [2]. - The article suggests that without strong governmental push for restructuring, only one local state-owned enterprise may survive in the competitive landscape [2]. Group 3: Private Enterprises - BYD is identified as the dominant player among private enterprises, with Geely also expected to remain competitive, while Great Wall and Chery have a chance to stay relevant [3]. - The emergence of new forces like Huawei and Xiaomi is highlighted as a significant factor that could reshape the competitive landscape [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Sales Projections - The "survival line" for mainstream automakers in the EV market is projected at an annual sales volume of 1 million units, with 2 million units needed to maintain pricing power and invest in next-generation technologies [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50% by 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach between 70% and 85% by 2030 [5]. - The total retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are projected to grow slightly from 23 million in 2024 to 25 million by 2030, with a significant portion of this market transitioning to EVs [5]. Group 5: Replacement Market Analysis - The article outlines a replacement market for fuel vehicles, estimating that 8 to 10 million buyers will switch to EVs by 2030, creating a substantial market opportunity for new energy vehicles [6]. - The analysis of various price segments indicates that the economic segment (under 80,000 RMB) will predominantly be occupied by EVs, while the mainstream market (80,000-150,000 RMB) is largely controlled by BYD and Geely [7][8]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape in the mid-to-high-end market (150,000-250,000 RMB) is expected to be challenging, with brands like NIO and Li Auto facing stiff competition from Huawei and Tesla [9][10]. - The high-end market (above 400,000 RMB) is anticipated to be dominated by Huawei, with significant challenges for other brands to maintain market share [10]. - Factors such as export markets, demographic changes, and pricing strategies will play crucial roles in shaping the future of the automotive industry in China [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the AITO Authorized User Center in Jinan marks a significant step for Zhongsheng Group in the new energy vehicle sector, enhancing consumer experience with intelligent automotive services [3][10]. Company Summary - Zhongsheng Group is a leading automotive dealership group in China, committed to providing high-quality automotive services [9]. - The new AITO Authorized User Center integrates Zhongsheng's mature service system into the sales and after-sales processes of the AITO brand [9]. Industry Summary - The opening of the AITO Authorized User Center is expected to contribute to the promotion and development of new energy vehicles, injecting new vitality into the industry [10]. - The center aims to enhance the consumer experience by offering a range of high-quality new energy vehicle options and services [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the mid-to-high-end automotive market, particularly for domestic brands [6]. Core Insights - The domestic automotive market is experiencing a shift from a focus on cost-effectiveness to brand building, especially in the mid-to-high-end segments [1][2]. - The high-end market (above 150,000 RMB) is expected to see significant growth, with domestic brands poised to capture a larger share due to their increasing brand loyalty and product capabilities [2][5]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with traditional luxury brands facing challenges from emerging domestic players leveraging technology and innovation [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-to-High-End Market Profitability - The mid-to-high-end market is characterized by strong profitability and significant growth potential, with domestic brands currently holding less than 50% market share in segments priced above 150,000 RMB [2][5]. - The 5-15 million RMB market is dominated by domestic brands, achieving a market share of 70.6% as of Q2 2025, but is entering a phase of stock competition with limited growth potential [12][16]. - The 15-25 million RMB market shows a growing share for domestic brands, currently at 48.0%, indicating room for further expansion [18][19]. 2. Lessons from Overseas Brands - Traditional luxury brands have established strong brand identities through historical positioning and consistent messaging, which domestic brands can learn from [2][3]. - The ultra-luxury segment emphasizes performance and exclusivity, while traditional luxury brands focus on luxury experiences and brand prestige [3]. 3. Building Brand Barriers for Domestic Brands - Domestic brands are increasingly focusing on building brand barriers through product differentiation and technological advancements, particularly in the luxury segment [4][5]. - The competitive landscape in the 25 million RMB and above market is stabilizing, with leading domestic brands like Li Auto and Huawei establishing a strong presence [4][24]. 4. Challenges and Opportunities in the Luxury Market - The luxury market is witnessing a clear leadership structure, with domestic brands like Li Auto and Xiaomi emerging as strong competitors against traditional luxury brands [4][24]. - The report suggests that the 15-25 million RMB market is fragmented and presents opportunities for traditional and emerging players to establish leadership [15][19]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands in the mid-to-high-end market, particularly those with strong brand potential and innovative capabilities [5]. - Suggested companies for investment include emerging players like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and traditional brands with high-end sub-brands such as Geely and BYD [5].