Core Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a survey in 50 cities, revealing a decline in income and employment sentiment among urban residents in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2] Income and Employment Sentiment - The income perception index stands at 45.0%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [1] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% believing "the situation is good, and employment is easy" [1] Price and Housing Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, down by 0.7 percentage points, with 20.3% expecting prices to "rise" [1] - For housing prices, 8.9% of residents expect "an increase," while 21.7% anticipate a "decrease" [2] Consumer Behavior and Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, while 63.8% lean towards "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points [2] - The top five preferred investment methods are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [2] Future Spending Plans - The top five items residents plan to increase spending on in the next three months are travel (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and large goods (21.1%) [2]

Core Insights - The majority of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][4] Group 1: Economic Sentiment - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 is 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers considering the economy normal and 35.8% viewing it as "cold" [3][4] - The entrepreneur macroeconomic heat index stands at 26%, with 50.8% of entrepreneurs believing the economy is "normal" and 48.6% considering it "cold" [3][4] - The operating prosperity index and profit index for entrepreneurs have increased to 49.3% and 53.2%, respectively, with 32.5% of entrepreneurs reporting increased profits or reduced losses, up from 26% in the previous quarter [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy Perception - The banker monetary policy perception index is at 74.6%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 50% of bankers viewing the policy as "loose" [4] - The expected monetary policy perception index for the next quarter is 75.9%, indicating a positive outlook [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The resident income perception index for Q2 is 45%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [5] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, down 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% of residents believing the job market is favorable [5] - In terms of spending intentions for the next three months, tourism has surpassed education as the top choice at 32.1%, followed by education at 31.9% and healthcare at 29.3% [7] Group 4: Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," while 63.8% prefer "more savings," indicating a shift in consumer sentiment [6] - The top five investment preferences among residents are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [6]

Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3] - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [5] - The banker macroeconomic heat index decreased to 33.2%, with 61.9% of bankers believing the economy is performing normally, while 35.8% consider it "cold" [7][9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - In the second quarter, nearly 70% of residents reported that their income situation remained unchanged, with a cautious outlook on employment [10][11] - A significant portion of residents (32.1%) indicated that they plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][13] - The majority of residents expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter, with 60.1% anticipating no change in prices and 56.8% expecting housing prices to remain unchanged [11]

Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1] - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [3] - The banker macroeconomic heat index decreased to 33.2%, with 61.9% of bankers considering the macroeconomic performance normal [4] Group 2: Price and Production Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to show a year-on-year decline, with a significant percentage of entrepreneurs reporting stable product sales and raw material prices compared to the previous quarter [3] - The overall demand for loans has decreased, reflecting a cautious outlook in the banking sector [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - In a survey of urban residents, nearly 70% reported that their income remained unchanged in the second quarter, with a cautious outlook on employment [6] - The majority of residents expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter, indicating a lack of inflationary pressure [6] - The top spending priority for residents in the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) survey indicates a cautious yet stable outlook among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance, with over half expressing a neutral stance towards the economy [1][6][10]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][8]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% view it as "cold" [6]. - The profit index for entrepreneurs stands at 53.2%, with 32.5% of entrepreneurs reporting an increase in profits or a reduction in losses, marking a 6.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [8]. Group 2: Banker Insights - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% considering the economy normal and 35.8% perceiving it as "cold" [10]. - The bankers' perception of monetary policy is generally positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative, and their expectations for the third quarter have improved slightly [9][12]. Group 3: Consumer Insights - The urban residents' survey reveals that 69.7% of respondents feel their income remains unchanged in the second quarter [15]. - A significant portion of residents (51.5%) perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious outlook on job prospects [16]. - When asked about future spending, tourism has surpassed education as the preferred category, with 32.1% of residents planning to increase spending in this area [21].