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央行二季度问卷调查出炉:三季度经济预期升温,三成居民将增加旅游支出
证券时报· 2025-07-29 10:21
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) survey indicates a cautious yet stable outlook among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance, with over half expressing a neutral stance towards the economy [1][6][10]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][8]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% view it as "cold" [6]. - The profit index for entrepreneurs stands at 53.2%, with 32.5% of entrepreneurs reporting an increase in profits or a reduction in losses, marking a 6.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [8]. Group 2: Banker Insights - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% considering the economy normal and 35.8% perceiving it as "cold" [10]. - The bankers' perception of monetary policy is generally positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative, and their expectations for the third quarter have improved slightly [9][12]. Group 3: Consumer Insights - The urban residents' survey reveals that 69.7% of respondents feel their income remains unchanged in the second quarter [15]. - A significant portion of residents (51.5%) perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious outlook on job prospects [16]. - When asked about future spending, tourism has surpassed education as the preferred category, with 32.1% of residents planning to increase spending in this area [21].