在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内 容。 文I环球锐评 迟来账单的荒诞 43天的停摆让华尔街分析师集体转行算命，全程在信息黑洞里交易，好不容易等来的数据堪称大新闻， 8月美国贸易逆差暴跌近24%，收窄至596亿美元。 编辑I环球锐评 前言 哈喽大家好，我是小李，今天我们来说一说美国，感恩节近在眼前，圣诞树已陆续登场，美国商务部却 才拖沓交出8月贸易账单。 这场景恰似年夜饭端上桌时，突然收到一张尘封的暑期消费账单，荒诞又刺眼，这一切的推手，正是那 场号称美国史上最长的联邦政府停摆。 关税拥护者或许已举杯欢庆，认定这是关税大棒的胜利，但拨开数据美颜滤镜便知，这绝非什么辉煌战 果，而是断食后强撑的虚脱，表面光鲜，内里早已暗流涌动。 首先要厘清核心逻辑，逆差收窄并非出口爆发，商务部数据明确显示，出口仅微增0.1%，几乎可忽略 不计，真正的主导者是进口端的断崖式下跌，8月进口额狂降5.1%，创四个月来最大跌幅。 这绝非美国人突然勤俭持家，而是关税催生的囤货后遗症，2025年4月，特朗普政府宣布一系列对等关 税计划，商家预判成本暴涨，随即开启疯狂囤货模式。 4至7 ...

新华财经纽约11月19日电（记者刘亚南）美国商务部19日早间发布的数据显示，美国8月份商品和服务 贸易逆差金额为596亿美元，环比减少186亿美元，降幅为23.88%。 其中，当月出口金额为2808亿美元，环比微增0.1%，而8月进口金额环比下降5.1%至3404亿美元。 美国商务部表示，8月份商品与服务贸易赤字减少主要是由于商品贸易赤字减少181亿美元至856亿美 元。其中，工业原材料进口金额减少113亿美元，包括非货币黄金进口93亿美元的降幅，消费品、资本 货物以及食品饮料的进口金额降幅则分别为37亿美元、34亿美元和16亿美元。 分国别看，美国8月份前三大商品贸易赤字对象分别为墨西哥、中国和越南，与瑞士贸易赤字大幅减少 76亿美元至1亿美元。 由于美国联邦政府因预算不足而部分陷入停摆，8月份美国国际贸易数据未能按原计划在10月7日发布。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged by 22.2% year-on-year in October 2025, marking the fastest growth since November 2021, significantly exceeding market expectations of 7.5% [1] Group 1: AI and Electronics Sector - The electronics sector saw a remarkable year-on-year export increase of 33.2% in October, driven by structural demand from the AI boom, with integrated circuits (ICs) and personal computers (PCs) rising by 40.9% and 77.7% respectively [2] - Analysts attribute this strong performance to sustained global capital expenditure related to AI, with Singapore's semiconductor production accounting for over 11% of the global market share [2] Group 2: Gold Exports and Global Sentiment - Non-electronic products experienced an 18.8% growth, primarily due to a staggering 176.8% increase in "non-monetary gold" exports, reflecting heightened global risk aversion [4] - The surge in gold exports was particularly notable to Thailand and Hong Kong, with increases of 844.6% and 68.9% respectively, amid rising concerns over trade tensions and economic downturns [4] Group 3: Government Policies and Economic Outlook - The robust export performance is supported by government macroeconomic policies, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating stability and expansion in the sector [5] - Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister has outlined a focus on developing high-value industries like AI, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore has maintained a policy of moderate appreciation of the Singapore dollar to stabilize costs for the electronics manufacturing sector [6] - Following the strong data, several institutions have revised their economic forecasts upward, with OCBC raising its NODX growth prediction for 2025 from 2.5% to 4% [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit in July surged to a four-month high, primarily due to businesses stockpiling goods and raw materials ahead of new tariffs announced by President Trump [1][3] - The trade deficit expanded nearly 33% from the previous month to $78.3 billion, slightly above economists' median forecast of $78 billion [1][3] Group 1: Import and Export Data - July imports increased by 5.9%, marking the largest rise since the beginning of the year, while exports saw a slight uptick [3][4] - The surge in imports reflects U.S. companies' urgency to stockpile goods before the implementation of "reciprocal tariff rates" on countries without trade agreements with the U.S. [3][4] Group 2: Specific Import Trends - The increase in imports was broad-based, with industrial goods reaching a four-month high and consumer goods also rising [4] - Capital equipment imports, excluding automobiles, recorded the largest increase since the beginning of the year [4] - A significant rise in non-monetary gold imports contributed to the surge in industrial goods imports [4] Group 3: Trade Deficit with Major Partners - The trade deficit with major partners generally widened, with the deficit with China expanding for the first time in six months [4] - The deficit with Mexico slightly increased, while the deficit with Canada also grew after hitting a low in June [4] - Adjusted for inflation, the goods trade deficit expanded to $100.1 billion in July, following a record high earlier in the year [4]

Core Insights - Australia's merchandise trade surplus reached approximately AUD 7.31 billion (about CNY 34.16 billion) in July 2025, an increase of approximately AUD 1.944 billion compared to the adjusted surplus in June [1] - The market had previously anticipated a surplus of around AUD 5 billion for July [1] Trade Data Summary - Seasonally adjusted merchandise exports in July increased by approximately 3.3% month-on-month, totaling about AUD 46.017 billion [1] - Merchandise imports decreased by approximately 1.3% month-on-month, amounting to about AUD 38.707 billion [1] Export Breakdown - Rural goods exports rose by approximately 5.9% month-on-month, reaching about AUD 6.631 billion [1] - Non-rural goods exports increased by approximately 1.9% month-on-month, totaling about AUD 33.059 billion [1] - Net exports of goods under merchanting remained stable at approximately AUD 82 million [1] - Non-monetary gold exports increased by approximately 8.3% month-on-month, reaching about AUD 6.246 billion [1] Non-Rural Goods Export Details - Metal ores and minerals exports grew by approximately 1.5% month-on-month, totaling about AUD 13.82 billion [2] - Coal, coke, and briquettes exports increased by approximately 1.6% month-on-month, reaching about AUD 5.58 billion [2] - Other mineral fuels exports rose by approximately 5.1% month-on-month, amounting to about AUD 6.693 billion [2] - Exports of metals excluding non-monetary gold increased by approximately 7.4% month-on-month, totaling about AUD 1.794 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's current account deficit reached approximately AUD 13.654 billion in Q2 2025, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of deficit, but it was lower than market expectations of AUD 15.1 billion [1] Group 1: Current Account Deficit - The current account deficit for Q1 2025 was revised to approximately AUD 14.092 billion, showing a slight decrease in Q2 compared to Q1 [1] - The seasonally adjusted trade surplus in goods and services decreased from approximately AUD 4.305 billion in Q1 to about AUD 3.084 billion in Q2 [1] - The net primary income deficit reduced from approximately AUD 17.99 billion in Q1 to about AUD 16.781 billion in Q2 [1] Group 2: Trade Conditions - Australia's trade conditions, defined as the ratio of export prices to import prices, fell from 90.7 in Q1 to 89.8 in Q2 [1] - The decline in trade conditions was attributed to falling commodity prices, particularly for iron ore and coal [2] - The trade conditions decreased by 1.1% from Q1 and by 2.4% compared to Q2 of the previous year [2] Group 3: Investment and Imports - Increased inflows from overseas stock investments contributed to the reduction of the net primary income deficit to its lowest level since September 2021 [2] - Strong performance in imports of non-monetary gold and tourism services led to a decrease in the trade surplus for the quarter [2]

Core Insights - Australia's trade surplus for June 2025 reached approximately 5.365 billion AUD (about 25.058 billion RMB), an increase of about 3.761 billion AUD compared to the adjusted surplus in May [1] - The market had previously estimated the June surplus to be around 2.5 billion AUD [1] Group 1: Trade Data - Seasonally adjusted exports in June increased by approximately 6%, reaching about 44.318 billion AUD [1] - Imports decreased by approximately 3.1%, totaling about 38.952 billion AUD [1] Group 2: Export Breakdown - Rural goods exports in June slightly decreased by about 0.1%, amounting to approximately 6.197 billion AUD [1] - Non-rural goods exports increased by approximately 3.1%, reaching about 32.329 billion AUD [1] - Net exports of goods under merchanting remained stable at around 24 million AUD [1] - Non-monetary gold exports surged by approximately 36.7%, totaling about 5.768 billion AUD [1] Group 3: Non-Rural Goods Export Subcategories - Metal ores and minerals exports grew by approximately 2.3%, reaching about 13.662 billion AUD [2] - Coal, coke, and briquettes exports increased by approximately 17.3%, totaling about 5.467 billion AUD [2] - Other mineral fuels exports decreased by approximately 4.9%, amounting to about 6.251 billion AUD [2] - Exports of metals excluding non-monetary gold decreased by approximately 2.9%, totaling about 1.656 billion AUD [2]

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) saw a significant year-on-year increase of 12.4% in April 2025, marking the largest monthly rise in nearly nine months, although this growth is influenced by short-term factors and may face downward pressure in the coming months [1][2][4] Group 1: Export Performance - NODX growth in April was driven by a remarkable 23.5% increase in electronic products, with personal computer exports surging by 124.3%, and integrated circuits and magnetic disk media products growing by 23.3% and 33.0% respectively [1] - Non-electronic products also experienced growth, with an overall increase of 9.3%, particularly highlighted by a substantial 80.4% rise in non-monetary gold exports [1][2] - The NODX to Indonesia increased by 111.2%, while exports to Taiwan and South Korea rose by 47.4% and 38.1% respectively, indicating strong demand for ships, gold, and computers [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Chief Economist of OCBC noted that the April NODX growth was primarily due to front-loading of electronic product shipments ahead of a tariff exemption announcement, suggesting potential risks of a decline in exports if a long-term agreement is not reached between the US and China [2][3] - UOB's research report indicated that the April export rebound exhibited typical policy-driven characteristics, with a 58.9% year-on-year surge in non-oil re-exports, reflecting supply chain adjustments in anticipation of policy changes [3] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly downgraded its global trade growth forecast for 2025 from 3.0% to 0.2%, citing renewed trade tensions between the US and China as a key factor [3][4] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Growth - Singapore's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has shown weakness, with some sub-indices falling below the neutral line, indicating underlying fragility in the manufacturing sector [5] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry revised its economic growth forecast for the year down from 1% to 3% to a range of 0% to 2%, reflecting concerns over future export performance and economic activity [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, increasing by 14.0% from the revised $123.2 billion in February, primarily due to increased imports before tariff hikes [1] - For the first quarter, the trade deficit expanded significantly, contributing to a negative GDP growth for the first time in three years [1] Trade Deficit and Import/Export Data - In March, the trade deficit for goods and services was $140.5 billion, up $17.3 billion from February, marking a 14.0% increase [1] - Exports in March totaled $278.5 billion, a slight increase of $0.5 billion or 0.2% from February, while imports rose to $419.0 billion, an increase of $17.8 billion or 4.4% [1] - Year-to-date through March, the trade deficit increased by $1.896 billion or 92.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with exports up by $411 million (5.2%) and imports up by $2.307 billion (23.3%) [1] Average Trade Data - For the three months ending in March, the average trade deficit rose by $14.1 billion to $131.4 billion, with average exports increasing by $4.0 billion to $275.7 billion and average imports increasing by $18.1 billion to $407.1 billion [1] Detailed Breakdown of Goods and Services - In March, goods exports increased by $1.3 billion to $183.2 billion, with notable growth in industrial supplies, natural gas, non-monetary gold, and automobiles, while capital goods saw a decline [3] - Services exports decreased by $0.9 million to $95.2 billion, with a significant drop in travel services, although transportation and financial services showed mixed results [3] - Goods imports rose by $17.8 billion to $346.8 billion, driven by increases in consumer goods and capital goods, while industrial supplies and non-monetary gold saw declines [3] - Services imports decreased slightly by $0.1 million to $72.2 billion, with varying changes in travel and transportation services [4] Actual Trade Data - In March, the actual goods trade deficit increased by $14.0 billion or 10.2% to $150.9 billion, with actual goods exports rising by $2.4 billion (1.6%) to $149.7 billion and actual goods imports increasing by $16.4 billion (5.8%) to $300.6 billion [4] Trade Partner Dynamics - In March, the U.S. had trade surpluses with countries like the Netherlands and regions in South America and Central America, while experiencing trade deficits with the EU and Ireland, with increased deficits noted with Ireland and France, and a decrease with Switzerland [4]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's merchandise trade surplus reached approximately AUD 6.9 billion (about RMB 32.16 billion) in March 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations of around AUD 3.13 billion, marking an increase of approximately AUD 4.05 billion from the adjusted surplus of AUD 2.85 billion in February [1] Group 1: Trade Surplus and Exports - The seasonally adjusted merchandise exports in March increased by approximately 7.6% month-on-month, reaching about AUD 45.35 billion [1] - The imports decreased by approximately 2.2% month-on-month, totaling about AUD 38.45 billion [1] - Rural goods exports fell by approximately 8.5% month-on-month to about AUD 6.22 billion, while non-rural goods exports rose by approximately 8.6% to about AUD 33.77 billion [1] Group 2: Export Price Index - In Q1 2025, the export price index for Australia rose by 2.1% month-on-month but fell by 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The increase in the export price index was primarily driven by rising iron ore prices due to the positive development of the Chinese economy, with metal ores and scrap metal export price indicators increasing by 5.4% in Q1 [2] - The demand for non-monetary gold as a safe-haven asset remained strong, leading to a 12.4% increase in its export price index during the same quarter [2] Group 3: Import Price Index - The import price index rose by 3.3% month-on-month and increased by 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in import prices included the depreciation of the Australian dollar and U.S. sanctions on oil from Russia and Iran, which led to an 8.2% increase in the price index for oil and related products [3] - The import price index for non-monetary gold also increased by 11.7%, contributing to the overall rise in Australia's import price index [3]