基本面： 周五（10月10日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅反弹收复隔夜部分跌幅，目前暂交投于3980美元附近。金价在触及4059.05美元的历史新高后急转直下，周四 （10月9日）下跌近2%，最终失守4000美元关口，收于3976美元附近。驱动此轮下跌的直接诱因，是美元指数的持续走强以及中东地区紧张局势的暂时缓 和。与此同时，白银也从51.22美元的历史高位应声回落，收报于49.23美元。美元指数连续四个交易日上涨，创下近两个月新高，使得以美元计价的黄金对 于海外买家而言变得更加昂贵。而以色列与哈马斯达成停火协议，则削弱了黄金作为地缘政治避险资产的光芒，促使部分投机者选择"落袋为安"。 美国债市的波动进一步放大了黄金市场的调整压力。周四，美国国债收益率小幅走高，30年期国债标售结果显示需求一般，在联邦政府持续停摆导致官方经 济指标发布受阻的背景下，市场信号的意义被削弱。美国10年期国债收益率上涨1.7个基点至4.148%，30年期收益率上升0.8个基点至4.732%。两年期国债收 益率升至3.597%，而五年期和十年期TIPS损益平衡收益率分别报2.423%和2.355%，表明市场预期未来十年年均通胀率约为2.4% ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 914.32 | 39.92 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11169 | 251 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 251137 | -5739 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 477441 | 1197 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 157017 | -9396 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 98301 | -7580 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 70728 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1186846 | -5436 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 910.89 | 37.94 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 11107 | 194 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.43 | -1.98 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rise in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3748.99 per ounce, driven by strong expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4] - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily fueled by the market's anticipation of additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, following a 25 basis point cut last week, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle [3][4] - The weakening of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping 0.36%, has made gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thereby increasing global demand for gold [4] Group 2 - The bullish sentiment in the gold market reflects a combination of expectations for monetary policy easing, geopolitical risk aversion, and asset allocation shifts [4] - The upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the core PCE inflation data will be critical indicators for the short-term movement of gold prices, with potential for increased volatility [4] - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong as long as the global easing cycle continues and geopolitical uncertainties persist [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The CME's "FedWatch Tool" indicates that investors expect two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with probabilities of 93% in October and 81% in December [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has advocated for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction is more appropriate than the previously discussed 25 basis points [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, drawing investor attention for clues on future policy direction [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - Analyst Chad predicts gold could reach targets of $3750, $3800, and potentially challenge $3900 and $4000 per ounce, despite current overbought conditions indicated by the RSI [3] - The daily chart for gold shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at $3763, $3770, and $3781, and support levels at $3747, $3739, and $3726 [4] Group 3: Currency Market Insights - The EUR/USD pair is also showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1827, 1.1854, and 1.1905, and support levels at 1.1786, 1.1746, and 1.1696 [5] - The market is awaiting key economic indicators, including the U.S. current account balance and PMI data, which could influence currency movements [5]

换资前言： 今年下半年，行情波幅变动极快，我想有在这个市场操作的朋友基本上就要这样的感觉，那么金九银十 已经到来，晟富每天都会推送每天的操作思路和点位解析，但说实话，我也不是卖豆腐的，又不能指哪 切那，点位有偏差太正常不过了，而进出场都需要根据行情来实时的做调整，这就需要实盘的一对一指 导了！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（9月23日）亚市早盘，现货黄金延续涨势，一度刷新历史高点至3757.99美元/盎司。现货黄金周 一上涨1.7%至3746.47美元/盎司，投资者对美联储进一步降息的强烈预期，加上地缘政治不确定性引发 的持续避险需求，吸引了大量资金涌入黄金市场，推动其价格一路高歌猛进。与此同时，白银价格也创 下逾14年新高，显示出贵金属市场的整体强势。本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑来自于市场对美联储 将进一步降息的强烈预期。上周美联储降息25个基点，开启了自去年12月以来的新一轮宽松周期，这本 身就是一个强烈的信号。然而，市场真正的兴奋点在于"未来还有更多"。这种激进的声音，尽管在美联 储内部并非主流——例如圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆就谨慎地表示进一步降息空间"有限"——但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, technological demand, and the weakening of the US dollar [19] Price Dynamics - As of July 21, international gold prices rose over 1.5% in a single day, surpassing $3,400 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,416.9, marking a five-week high [1] - COMEX gold futures also increased to $3,412 per ounce, while domestic gold futures reached 781.5 yuan per gram [1] Key Drivers - **Geopolitical Risks**: Tensions in the Middle East and escalating trade wars between the US and Europe have triggered panic buying in the market [2] - **Central Bank Strategies**: Global central banks have net purchased 1,000 tons of gold over three years, with China increasing its reserves to 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) [3] - **Dollar Weakness and Economic Risks**: Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising US debt have weakened the dollar's credibility, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-sovereign asset [5] - **Technological Demand**: The use of gold in brain-machine interfaces and nano-scale chip wires is expected to increase demand significantly in the coming years [6] Market Impact - **Mining Companies**: Gold mining companies are experiencing substantial profit increases, with Zhongrun Resources projecting a net profit increase of 161.9% to 191% [7] - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a divergence in consumer purchasing behavior, with increased sales in branded gold stores but a shift towards lower-priced markets due to high prices [8] Investment Behavior - **Leverage Traders**: Some high-leverage gold traders have faced significant losses, with daily losses reaching 470,000 yuan [10] - **Long-term Investors**: Long-term investors are buying gold ETFs, bolstered by central bank purchasing trends [11] Future Trends and Predictions - **Bullish View**: Central bank purchases, dollar depreciation, and inflation risks support a bullish outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $3,700 by the end of 2025 [12] - **Cautious View**: Concerns about geopolitical premiums fading and technical resistance suggest a potential price correction to $2,700 by 2026, according to Citigroup [12] - **Tech-Driven View**: The explosion in demand for brain-machine interfaces and chips is expected to support high prices, with a predicted annual increase of over 1,000 tons [12] Key Resistance Levels - A resistance level between $3,400 and $3,500 is noted, with a potential breakout indicating a new upward trend [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar has regained stability amidst declining investor confidence, impacting gold prices which have retreated to $3411.37 per ounce, down 0.60% [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, retail sales data, and geopolitical situations are identified as the three main factors influencing global markets this week [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, but its economic forecasts and statements regarding future rate cuts will directly affect market perceptions of the dollar's trajectory [1] Group 2 - Gold prices showed a strong weekly performance, closing above $3400, breaking previous resistance levels, indicating a bullish trend [3] - The price of gold is supported by the $3258-60 range, and a breakdown below this level would indicate further bearish pressure [3] - The daily chart shows a recent breakthrough of resistance, with a bullish trend indicated by consecutive upward movements [3] Group 3 - The gold market experienced a significant rebound last week, with a strong bullish candlestick on the weekly chart, and the previous month's upper shadow has been completely engulfed [5] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven demand for gold, maintaining a solid upward trend in prices [5] - Two potential scenarios for gold prices are outlined: a bounce from $3410 leading to a rise, or a drop below this level followed by a subsequent rise [5]