黄金：降息预期+地缘避险共振，黄金创历史新高，牛市延续谨防短期回调 2025年黄金表现领跑全球资产，自2024年突破长期底部后整体涨幅超100%，年内涨幅亦超65%。月、 周线大周期牛市趋势坚挺，回调幅度极小，动态支撑持续上移筑牢上行根基；但月线RSI录得1980年以 来最高超买水平，涨势过度延伸，2026年初大概率迎来获利了结引发的阶段性抛售。本周五（12月26 日），美联储降息预期升温叠加地缘政治避险需求激增，现货黄金强势站上4540，刷新历史新高，尾盘 收报4533.34，单日涨幅1.19%，周线大涨4.49%。 1小时级别，行情呈窄幅震荡，均线交织、布林带走平，多空博弈加剧，价格围绕4520-4540区间整理。 MACD零轴上方小幅金叉，空头抛压疲软。短线紧盯4550-4560阻力，下方防守4490-4500支撑。综合来 看，下周一黄金短线操作思路以回落低多为主，反弹高空为辅，下方短期重点关注4480-4430一线支 撑，上方短期重点关注4550-4600一线阻力。 文/王召金 日线级别，金价站稳上升通道上轨，5日均线形成强劲支撑，短期仍具上行动能，但市场追高热度过高 不宜盲目跟涨。重点关注4550阻 ...

文 |小戎 哈喽，大家好，小戎这篇国际评论，主要来分析近期黄金、白银等贵金属价格狂飙创历史新高，涨势传 导全球，背后多因素共振推动的市场态势。 家人们谁懂啊！今年的贵金属市场直接开了"狂飙"模式，黄金、白银、铂金跟比赛冲终点似的，一个个 全都突破历史新高，这涨势看得人目瞪口呆！ 在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出 更优质的内容 全球都在抢贵金属？ 先看黄金大哥，直接干到4500美元/盎司的新高度，今年以来涨了超三分之二，眼看就要创下1979年以 来的最佳年度战绩。 这波操作纯属"天时地利人和"：地缘政治一闹，大家赶紧囤黄金避险；各国央行疯狂买入当"压舱石"， 连黄金ETF都成了香饽饽，除了5月全月都在吸金。 说白了就是大家怕全球债务太多，钱不值钱，纷纷把黄金当成"硬通货保险箱"，不过要注意，最近买黄 金ETF的多是散户，这些钱来得快去得也快，金价可能还会"上蹿下跳"，但高盛都预测2026年能涨到 4900美元，这是把"多头剧本"都写好了啊。 再看铂金小弟，更是黑马中的黑马！ 涨到2300美元/盎司就算了，还连涨10个交易日，今年累计涨幅超150%，准备冲击198 ...

（原标题：升破4500美元！国际金价又创新高，还能追吗？丨财经早察） 过去的黄金你爱搭不理，现在的黄金你高攀不起！这到底是怎么回事？就在12月22日，黄金走出"疯狂 星期一"！现货黄金单日涨幅接近1.5%，成功站上4400美元/盎司，创下历史新高。12月23日，现货黄金 成功触及4500美元/盎司。今年以来，黄金价格已经飙升超过67%。与此同时，现货白银、铂金等贵金 属也持续走强，部分品种的累计涨幅甚至突破了100%！ 从去年到现在，黄金的表现可谓势不可挡。即便前期涨幅已经很高，它依然能再创新高，这也再次印证 了投资市场的一句老话——涨不言顶。那么，黄金为何如此强势？我们来拆解一下背后的四大动因。 第一，美元走弱是直接推手。黄金和美元有着天然的反向关系。眼下美元正处于降息周期，贬值压力加 大，黄金上涨几乎成了必然。 第二，美联储降息预期持续存在。市场普遍预计，明年美元仍有降息空 间。第三，抗通胀与保值功能被重新重视。无论是美国还是欧洲，财政收支失衡的问题都很突出。市场 担心这种失衡会引发长期通胀，也就是所谓的"财政货币化"。在这种情况下，黄金的保值属性就成了投 资者的首选。第四，国际地缘政治局势紧张带来避险需 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices are trading around $4,340, having surged approximately 1% in a recent session, driven by weak U.S. employment data and expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is holding above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,258, with an upward slope suggesting a sustained upward trend [1] - The MACD indicator is above the signal line and in positive territory, indicating that the upward momentum remains strong, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 60, suggesting that the market is not yet in overbought territory [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver has reached a historical high of $66.89 but is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with the MACD turning positive, indicating increased upward pressure [2] - The immediate support for silver is at the historical high of $64.72, followed by trendline support around $63.35 and a low of $60.87 from December 12 [2] - While short-term adjustments may be expected, silver still holds long-term potential, with the next target levels at the Fibonacci extension of $68.30 and $70.00 [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing weakness, with multiple rebounds failing to stabilize, indicating a trend of gradually decreasing lows [2] - Following the "1011" crash, the futures leverage in the crypto market has been fully cleared, bringing speculative leverage rates to historical lows, which is seen as a positive signal for the market [2] - The cryptocurrency market is expected to benefit from anticipated U.S. tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and relaxed regulations by 2026, maintaining its long-term growth potential [2]

俄现控制乌逾19%领土，较两年前仅增1个百分点，但2025年推进速度为2022年来最快。近四年战事未 分优劣，乌获欧美支持。泽连斯基强调一切取决于莫斯科会谈，须公平公开、不背乌交易。普京称美方 提案或可成未来协议基础，愿谈判，但乌若拒协议俄军将再推进。俄方核心要求包括乌永不入约、限 军、承认俄对已控四州及克里米亚主权等，乌视之为投降。俄美未就领土争端妥协，克宫称局势无进展 也未恶化。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，现货黄金涨0.36%至4220.35美元/盎司附近。普京在克里姆林宫会见 特朗普特使维特科夫及库什纳，商讨俄乌冲突政治解决方案。会前普京警告欧洲若与俄开战将速败，称 欧方和平方案"完全不可接受"，指责其阻挠进程。短期乐观消息或致金价技术回调，但分歧显著令全面 协议难成。 今日周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，现货黄金涨0.36%至4220.35美元/盎司附近。普京在克里姆林宫会见特朗 普特使维特科夫及库什纳，商讨俄乌冲突政治解决方案。会前普京警告欧洲若与俄开战将速败，称欧方 和平方案"完全不可接受"，指责其阻挠进程。短期乐观消息或致金价技术回调，但分歧显著令全面协议 难成。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight rebound, currently trading around $3980 after a significant drop from a historical high of $4059.05, with a nearly 2% decline on October 9, closing at approximately $3976 [1] - The decline in gold prices was driven by a strengthening US dollar and a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, particularly following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which diminished gold's appeal as a geopolitical safe-haven asset [1][4] - Silver also fell from its historical high of $51.22, closing at $49.23, as the strong dollar made dollar-denominated gold more expensive for overseas buyers [1] - The US bond market's fluctuations added pressure to the gold market, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.148% and the 30-year yield to 4.732%, indicating market expectations of an average inflation rate of about 2.4% over the next decade [3] - The US stock market's pullback, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.52%, reflected investor caution ahead of the earnings season and ongoing government shutdown, leading to profit-taking rather than new investments [3] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices recorded a high close, suggesting a potential short-term correction, with the $4000 level being a critical point to watch [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest considering short positions around $4020 with a stop loss at $4026 and targets near $3990/3950, while aggressive long positions could be attempted around $3950 with a stop loss at $3944 and targets near $3975/3995 [7] Market Outlook - Despite the recent short-term pullback, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and risks associated with the government shutdown [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The precious metals market is strongly rising due to the resonance of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment, the macro - data vacuum period caused by the US government shutdown, and the surge in ETF investment demand. The London spot gold price remains above $4000 per ounce. The Fed's officials' recent remarks are generally cautious, and the market has largely priced in the interest - rate cut expectation. The US government shutdown intensifies concerns about the macro - economic downturn and strengthens the safe - haven attribute of precious metals. Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices, and short - term dip - buying demand is expected to remain strong. However, there are risks of accelerated gold price corrections. It is recommended to adopt a dip - buying strategy with strict stop - loss [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 914.32 yuan/gram, up 39.92; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11169 yuan/kg, up 251 [3]. - **Positions**: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold is 251137 lots, down 5739; that of Shanghai silver is 477441 lots, up 1197. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 157017 lots, down 9396; that of Shanghai silver is 98301 lots, down 7580 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 70728 kg, unchanged; that of silver is 1186846 kg, down 5436 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 910.89 yuan/gram, up 37.94; the silver spot price is 11107 yuan/kg, up 194 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.43 yuan/gram, down 1.98; that of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 62 yuan/kg, down 57 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holding is 1014.58 tons, up 1.43; the silver ETF holding is 15415.53 tons, up 19.76 [3]. - **Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position (weekly) is 266749 contracts, up 339; the silver CTFC non - commercial net position (weekly) is 52276 contracts, up 738 [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.5%, up 0.12; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.56%, up 0.11 [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 22.88%, up 1.76; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 22.88%, up 1.77 [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be about 3% in the medium term, lower than 3.7% before the COVID - 19 pandemic. By 2029, global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP. The Fed may need to cut interest rates further [3]. - On October 8, the US Senate voted on the Republican - version short - term appropriation bill and the Democratic alternative passed by the House of Representatives, both of which failed, and the US federal government continues to shut down [3]. - US President Trump is negotiating a cease - fire agreement in Gaza, which is close to being reached [3]. - The US Congressional Budget Office states that the US federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 is $1.8 trillion, $800 million less than in 2024 [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rise in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3748.99 per ounce, driven by strong expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4] - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily fueled by the market's anticipation of additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, following a 25 basis point cut last week, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle [3][4] - The weakening of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping 0.36%, has made gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thereby increasing global demand for gold [4] Group 2 - The bullish sentiment in the gold market reflects a combination of expectations for monetary policy easing, geopolitical risk aversion, and asset allocation shifts [4] - The upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the core PCE inflation data will be critical indicators for the short-term movement of gold prices, with potential for increased volatility [4] - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong as long as the global easing cycle continues and geopolitical uncertainties persist [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The CME's "FedWatch Tool" indicates that investors expect two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with probabilities of 93% in October and 81% in December [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has advocated for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction is more appropriate than the previously discussed 25 basis points [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, drawing investor attention for clues on future policy direction [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - Analyst Chad predicts gold could reach targets of $3750, $3800, and potentially challenge $3900 and $4000 per ounce, despite current overbought conditions indicated by the RSI [3] - The daily chart for gold shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at $3763, $3770, and $3781, and support levels at $3747, $3739, and $3726 [4] Group 3: Currency Market Insights - The EUR/USD pair is also showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1827, 1.1854, and 1.1905, and support levels at 1.1786, 1.1746, and 1.1696 [5] - The market is awaiting key economic indicators, including the U.S. current account balance and PMI data, which could influence currency movements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by strong expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Gold reached a historical high of $3757.99 per ounce, with a 1.7% increase to $3746.47 per ounce on the previous day, fueled by investor anticipation of further Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1]. - Silver prices also hit a 14-year high, indicating overall strength in the precious metals market [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, although there are internal divisions regarding the pace of future cuts [2]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, are contributing to persistent demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [1][2]. - The demand for gold is characterized as structural and ongoing, providing a solid foundation for high prices despite potential short-term fluctuations in monetary policy expectations [1]. Technical Analysis - The current market shows a strong bullish trend for gold, with key support levels identified at $3737-3740 and resistance at $3790-3800 [5]. - The analysis suggests a strategy of buying on dips, with a focus on maintaining risk management through stop-loss orders [5][6]. Future Outlook - The short-term price movements of gold will be closely tied to comments from Fed officials and upcoming economic data, particularly employment and inflation figures [2]. - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact as long as the global easing cycle continues and geopolitical uncertainties persist [2].