证券研究报 告 宏观研究 【每周经济观察】 春节假期海外四大要闻——海外周报第 128 期 1、股市：全球主要股指多数上涨，韩股、法股、英股涨幅领先。2 月 16 日 ~20日，韩国综合指数、法国 CAC40、富时 100、欧洲斯托克 600指数、纳斯 达克、德国 DAX、标普 500、MSCI 新兴市场指数和道琼斯分别上涨 5.5%、 2.5%、2.3%、2.1%、1.5%、1.4%、1.1%、1.0%、 0.8%和 0.3%；恒生指数和 日经 225 分别下跌 0.6%和 0.2%。 2、债券：除美债利率外，全球主要 10 年期国债收益率多数下行。2 月 16 日 ~20 日，10 年期日债、法债、英债和意债收益率分别下行 6.1bps、3.8bps、 2.7bps 和 2.3bps；10 年期美债收益率上行 4.0bps。 3、大宗：全球主要大宗商品多数上涨。2 月 16 日~20 日，布伦特原油、WTI 原油、伦敦现货白银、伦敦现货黄金和 LME 期铜分别上涨 5.9%、5.7%、 4.1%、1.2%和 0.0%。 4、汇率：主要货币中日元、英镑跌幅较大。2 月 16 日~20 日，日元和英镑分 别下 ...

Market Performance - Global major stock indices mostly rose, with the Korean Composite Index, French CAC40, and FTSE 100 leading with increases of 5.5%, 2.5%, and 2.3% respectively from February 16 to 20[2] - Major 10-year government bond yields mostly declined, with Japanese, French, British, and Italian bonds down by 6.1bps, 3.8bps, 2.7bps, and 2.3bps respectively, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.0bps[2] - Most major commodities saw price increases, with Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rising by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively during the same period[2] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen and British pound experienced significant declines, falling by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.9%[3] Geopolitical Events - The U.S.-Iran crisis escalated, with WTI crude oil prices increasing from approximately $62.33 to $66.39, marking a 6.5% rise, and Brent crude oil rising by 6.4% to $71.76 due to military tensions in the region[3] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated a neutral yet hawkish stance, with market expectations for a potential rate cut of about 60 basis points this year, reflecting a slight easing compared to previous expectations[4] Legal and Trade Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's "emergency" tariffs, leading to a significant shift in trade policy, with Trump announcing a new 10% tariff on global imports for 150 days[5] - Following the Supreme Court's decision, the market reacted positively, with the Nasdaq index rising by 0.90% due to eased supply chain pressures[7] Economic Outlook - Japan's new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, emphasized a "responsible active fiscal policy," proposing significant tax cuts and public investments, which are expected to boost Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2026[8]

IT之家了解到，阿达尼集团在 AI 数据中心建设上的合作 伙伴包括谷歌、微软、Flipkart 等企业。这笔投资将形成 一个超大型集成数据中心平台，针对大型高密度计算集 群和下一代 AI 工作负载进行优化，并由先进的液冷系 统和高效电源架构提供支持。 此次千亿美元直接投资将带动服务器制造、先进电力基础设施、自主云平台及相关产业的 1500 亿美元 额外投资，打造一个总价值 2500 亿美元的 AI 基础设施生态系统。 IT之家 2 月 18 日消息，印度综合型企业巨头阿达尼集团 (Adani Group) 当地时间 17 日宣布未来十年间 将在印度国内向可再生能源驱动的超大规模 AI 就绪型数据中心进行 1000 亿美元（现汇率约合 6913.24 亿元人民币）规模的直接投资，对应 5GW 的电力容量。 ...

2026 年 2 月 1 日，知名科技巨头甲骨文因 AI 数据中心扩张陷入融资危机，多家美国银行直接停止向其相关 项目发放贷款，引发连锁自救动作。 甲骨文押注 AI 基建，与 OpenAI 签下超 3000 亿美元合作，仅单一项目资本支出就高达 1560 亿美元，年融 资需求超 250 亿美元。 疯狂烧钱却看不到稳定回报，银行不愿再承担风险，直接断贷止损 。其信用违约互换 价格半年翻三倍，市场信心全面崩塌。 为填补资金窟窿，甲骨文被曝计划裁员 2~3 万人 ，预计一次性释放 80-100 亿美元现金流，同时考虑出售四 年前以 283 亿美元收购的医疗业务 Cerner，断臂求生 。 再大的 AI 风口，扛不住现金流断裂，再牛的巨头， 也得向资本低头 。 受融资受阻影响，甲骨文部分 AI 数据中心项目已从 2027 年延期至 2028 年，股价连续下跌。这波裁员与断 贷，也给全球狂热的 AI 扩张潮泼了冷水， 没有盈利支撑的烧钱竞赛，终究会走到尽头 。 （参考： TD Cowen 、每经，本文经由 AI 优化） 甲骨文股价从去年 9 月 10 日的历史高点下跌超过 50％，市值蒸发约 4,630 亿美 元。 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's investment of approximately $1 billion in Nokia signifies a strategic shift from being a "GPU leader" to an "AI ecosystem builder" [2] - The collaboration aims to integrate "computing power" and "networking," indicating the next battleground for AI traffic will be at the edge, access, and network layers [2] Collaboration Details - Nvidia will acquire approximately 2.90% of Nokia by purchasing 166.39 million new shares at $6.01 each, totaling around $1 billion [4] - The partnership will focus on "AI-RAN" (Artificial Intelligence Radio Access Network) and 6G networks, with Nvidia's AI data center platform being integrated into Nokia's 5G/6G RAN software [4][6] Complementary Logic - Nokia's extensive technology assets in wireless access, base station software, and optical communication will facilitate Nvidia's entry into the telecom infrastructure sector [6] - The collaboration extends beyond traditional base stations to include "distributed edge AI inference" scenarios, enabling low-latency, intelligent interactions in applications like drones and autonomous vehicles [6] Industry Impact - The partnership highlights the complementary strengths of both companies, with Nokia's telecom infrastructure capabilities aligning with Nvidia's AI acceleration needs [8] - Nvidia's ambition to build a complete AI infrastructure from data centers to the edge necessitates strengthening its network capabilities, which have been relatively underdeveloped [11] Nvidia's Investment Landscape - Nvidia's recent investments reflect its transition from a pure chip supplier to an AI infrastructure platform provider, with commitments to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI [15] - The growing investment in AI infrastructure indicates a significant shift in Nvidia's strategic focus [15] Ecosystem Logic - The partnership aims to create a closed-loop ecosystem, expanding Nvidia's reach from "training-inference computing" to "edge acceleration, network access, and application scenarios" [21] - By collaborating with Nokia, Nvidia can embed its GPU/network acceleration platform into wireless access networks, achieving a comprehensive "computing-power-network-application" ecosystem [21] Strategic Selection of Nokia - Nokia was chosen due to its hardware capabilities and established telecom infrastructure, which complements Nvidia's focus on AI and edge computing [25] - The collaboration allows Nvidia to penetrate the telecom infrastructure market, filling gaps in its previous cloud and data center focus [25] Market Dynamics - The transaction signals a restructuring of the industry, increasing pressure on telecom equipment manufacturers like Ericsson and Huawei to upgrade their AI capabilities [29] - Competitors may accelerate their investments in edge AI and network infrastructure to counter Nvidia's integrated advantages [29] Future Milestones - Key milestones to watch include the 2026 AI-RAN trials with T-Mobile and the integration of Nokia's optical communication assets into the collaboration [41] - The partnership may redefine the competitive landscape in the "physical AI and edge intelligence" era, marking a significant shift in industry structure [41]

IT之家 10 月 28 日消息，彭博社昨日（10 月 27 日）发布博文，报道称英伟达（NVIDIA）宣布将与德国电信（DEUTSCHE TELEKOM）合作，共同投资 10 亿欧元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 82.81 亿元人民币）在德国慕尼黑建设一座新的人工智能（AI）数据中心，相关计划或于下月公布。 该项目预计将落户德国慕尼黑，投资总额高达 10 亿欧元。建成后，欧洲最大的企业软件公司 SAP 将成为其计算能力的主要用户之一，利用该设施支持其云 服务与 AI 应用。不过，截至目前，德国电信方面尚未就此消息发表任何官方评论。 该合作的正式公告预计将于今年 11 月在柏林发布。届时，德国电信首席执行官蒂姆・霍特格斯（Tim Höttges）、英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）以及 SAP 首席执行官克里斯蒂安・克莱恩（Christian Klein）等行业领袖预计将共同出席。 消息公布后，资本市场反应积极，德国电信的美国存托凭证（ADR）价格随之上涨了 2.2%。 图源：英伟达官网 该平台旨在加速未来"AI 超级工厂"的建设，而这类用于训练大规模 AI 模型的超高性能数据中心，也正是德国政府 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that in a bull market, rapid price increases often lead to short-term adjustment pressures, but do not alter the long-term trend, instead accumulating momentum for future rises [3][30] - It notes that since the end of June, the TMT sector's congestion level has risen to approximately 43% by the end of August, nearing the year's high, indicating potential structural adjustments in the market [3][30] - The report suggests that from now until the end of the year, there is likely to be a rotation in market styles, with Q4 entering a phase of policy expectation fermentation, similar to previous bull markets where new capital accelerated entry in Q4 [3][31] Group 2 - The report identifies that the bull market's main style is "stronger remains strong," but cyclical styles may perform better in the latter half of the cycle, as seen in past bull markets [5] - It highlights that the cyclical stocks have maintained a relatively stable excess return, with the potential for better performance as the fundamentals improve [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, which have shown good revenue growth and return on equity, indicating a positive fundamental outlook [5] Group 3 - The report discusses the AI sector, particularly the end-side AI investments, which are expected to benefit from policy support and innovations from major companies like Apple [20] - It mentions that AI data centers are expected to undergo significant upgrades, with the introduction of liquid cooling technology to manage the increasing power consumption of AI chips [20] - The report also highlights the ongoing demand for AI-related technologies and the potential for substantial growth in this sector [20] Group 4 - The report indicates that the methanol industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook due to high operating rates and low inventory levels, suggesting a sustained upward trend in industry conditions [24] - It points out that the copper smelting industry is undergoing optimization, with expectations for profitability to return as production capacities are aligned better with market demands [26] - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages in the copper smelting sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper [26]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market in China, with a focus on the banking and semiconductor industries, as well as the broader implications of the "anti-involution" theme in various sectors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: The A-share market is expected to experience a "mean reversion" trend characterized by "East rising, West declining" dynamics, driven by long-term capital allocation and a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding tariffs [1][2]. 2. **Anti-Involution Theme**: The "anti-involution" theme is particularly evident in the banking and semiconductor sectors, aiming to lower prices to reduce real interest rates and convert savings into consumption, which is anticipated to last for one to two years [1][3][4]. 3. **Defensive Strategy Against U.S. Competition**: China should adopt a defensive strategy to enhance domestic purchasing power by lowering domestic prices, while being cautious of U.S. efforts to support India as an alternative to Chinese low-end manufacturing [5]. 4. **Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2025**: Suggested allocations include overweighting sectors such as banking, telecommunications, technology, military informationization, high-dividend stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum [1][6][7]. 5. **Correlation Between U.S. and Chinese Markets**: There is a notable correlation (70%-80%) between the trading behaviors of strong sectors in both markets, particularly those related to AI and military information technology [1][8]. 6. **Long-term Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: The implementation of anti-involution policies should be gradual to avoid economic stagnation, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and ensuring that policies do not negatively impact economic growth [9][4]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior and Economic Indicators**: The recent upward movement in the U.S. stock market is attributed to the development of the AI industry and the influence of populist policies, which may mitigate short-term risks [34][35]. 2. **Inflation Expectations**: Inflation expectations are particularly sensitive for growth stocks, and current observations indicate a failure of inflation trading strategies in both the U.S. and China [17]. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: The reduction of geopolitical risks, such as the easing of U.S. software restrictions and potential resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could lead to decreased inflationary pressures in the future [18]. 4. **Investment in High-Growth Assets**: High-growth assets, particularly in AI, are projected to see significant demand increases, with growth rates expected to be around 15%-18% from 2024 to 2030 [19][20]. 5. **Sector Performance**: The performance of sectors such as gold and Bitcoin is highlighted, with both showing resilience against U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating their potential as investment vehicles [33]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, strategic recommendations, and the broader economic context affecting the A-share market and related sectors.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that technology giants may increase capital expenditures for data centers due to tariff pressures and uncertainties [2]. - The U.S. plans to modernize its national air traffic control system, which may benefit companies involved in aerospace and defense [22]. - The report notes a steady increase in the demand for industrial robots, particularly in the automotive sector, despite a slight decline in overall installations [35]. Summary by Sections Global Market Review - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average showed strong upward momentum, followed by some profit-taking, indicating a mixed market sentiment [9][10]. Infrastructure - The New England Independent System Operator expects an 11% increase in annual electricity consumption due to the electrification of heating systems and the adoption of electric vehicles [20]. - PJM is accelerating the construction of 11.8 GW of power projects to enhance electricity supply [20]. Energy - U.S. natural gas spot prices have adjusted, while futures prices are trending upward, with overall consumption remaining stable [5]. - International oil prices have decreased, and commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories have declined [5]. Aerospace - The U.S. aircraft engine and parts manufacturing price index remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][24]. - Global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 3.3% year-on-year in March 2025, indicating a recovery in air travel demand [30]. Defense - NATO continues to strengthen its eastern flank defense capabilities, with significant military exercises planned in Estonia and Lithuania [33]. - The U.S. government approved a potential sale of AIM-9X Block II tactical missiles to Norway, supporting NATO allies [33]. Robotics - The report highlights that 541,302 industrial robots were installed in 2023, a slight decrease from the previous year, with the automotive sector regaining its position as the largest customer [35]. - The U.S. mechanical manufacturing price index showed a minor increase of 0.2% month-on-month [39]. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Howmet Aerospace, Loar Holdings, and Safran are recommended for their potential benefits from the recovery in aerospace and defense spending [6]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like WMB and KMI, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for natural gas infrastructure [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that technology giants may increase capital expenditures for data centers due to tariff pressures and uncertainties [2]. - The U.S. air traffic control system is set for comprehensive modernization, which may benefit related industries [3]. - The industrial sector shows stable price indices for aircraft engines and components, with notable growth in specific areas [3][24]. - The energy sector is experiencing fluctuations in natural gas prices, with regulatory updates expected to enhance safety standards [5]. - The report emphasizes the robust recovery of the aerospace industry and increased defense spending, suggesting investment in high-performance component manufacturers [6]. Summary by Sections Global Market Review - The U.S. stock market showed strong upward momentum, with significant gains in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices, although some profit-taking occurred towards the end of the observation period [9][10]. Infrastructure - Data centers are seeing increased capital expenditures, with Meta raising its forecast for 2025 spending to between $64 billion and $72 billion [18]. - The New England ISO anticipates an 11% increase in annual electricity consumption due to electrification trends [20]. Energy Construction - The PJM Interconnection is accelerating the construction of 11.8 GW of power projects to enhance supply [20]. - The report notes geopolitical developments affecting energy prices, particularly in Europe [5]. Aerospace - The aerospace sector is witnessing significant developments, including a planned launch of a private astronaut mission by Axiom Space and SpaceX [22]. - The price index for aircraft engines and components remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [24][27]. Defense - NATO is enhancing its eastern flank defense capabilities, with large-scale military exercises planned in Estonia and Lithuania [33]. - The U.S. government has approved a potential sale of tactical missiles to Norway, supporting NATO allies [33]. Robotics - The industrial robotics market is projected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with 541,302 units installed in 2023, despite a slight decline from the previous year [35]. - The automotive sector remains the largest customer for industrial robots, accounting for 25% of installations [35]. Industrial Equipment - The report highlights stable price indices for various industrial equipment, with gas turbine prices showing a year-on-year increase of 7.24% [45]. - Transformer exports from China are experiencing significant growth, with a 20.96% year-on-year increase in March 2025 [66].