点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 事件：公司公告 25 年业绩预增：归母净利 32.5-34.5 亿元同比+87%～98%，扣非归母净利 30.8-32.8亿元同比+84%～96%。结合公司及行业近 况，我们点评如下： Q4业绩环比下滑，源于PCB业务大客户拉货放缓和中低阶CCL价格传导不充分。 单看Q4 业绩，归母净利中值9.1 亿元，同比+147.5%环 比-10.8%；扣非归母净利中值8.0 亿元，同比+121.0%环比-20.1%。环比业绩表现下滑，不及市场预期，我们分析主因：1）子公司生益电子 Q4 业绩中值3.6 亿环比下滑 2.3 亿，对母公司生益科技的业绩环比角度产生的拖累约 1.4 亿；2）10 月的CCL 涨价未能 Cover 26Q4 上游原材 料的价格成本的上涨，其中Q4 LME 铜价涨幅超过20%，铜箔加工费及玻纤布价格均有不同幅度的上涨，这意味着 CCL 利润增加更多来源于公司 高速材料的放量，而中低端 CCL 的盈利改善表现不及市场预期。全年来看，业绩增长主要源于：1）CCL 销量增长，产品结构优化带动毛利率提 升；2）子公司生益电子在 AI PCB领域获得大客户突破，持续扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that Shengyi Technology is expected to see significant growth in its 2025 performance, driven by a clear long-term structural upgrade trend in AI-related business [1] Group 1: Company Growth Prospects - Shengyi Technology's subsidiary, Shengyi Electronics, is rapidly expanding its AI PCB production capacity, with strong demand from major clients and potential new customers in computing power [1] - The company is anticipated to increase its market share in high-speed CCL, with ongoing improvements in N client markets and breakthroughs in G and A client systems [1] Group 2: Market Strategy and Management - The company is expected to adopt a more proactive market strategy this year to address rising upstream raw material costs [1] - The market is likely to continue recognizing and uncovering the company's technological leadership, core positioning, and long-term potential in PCB upstream materials, supported by excellent management capabilities [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in high-speed board production in 2026 is expected to drive a new round of high-quality growth, with mid-to-long-term performance likely to exceed expectations [1] - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商证券 indicates that Shengyi Technology is expected to see significant growth in its 2025 performance, driven by a clear long-term structural upgrade trend in AI-related business [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - Shengyi Technology's subsidiary, Shengyi Electronics, is rapidly expanding its AI PCB production capacity, with strong demand from major clients and potential new clients in computing power [1] - The company is anticipated to increase its market share in the high-speed CCL sector, particularly among N clients, while also achieving breakthroughs with G and A clients [1] Group 2: Market Strategy and Management - The company is expected to adopt a more proactive market strategy this year to address rising upstream raw material costs [1] - The report emphasizes the company's technological leadership, core positioning in PCB upstream materials, and excellent management capabilities, which are likely to be recognized and valued by the market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in high-speed board production in 2026 is expected to drive a new round of high-quality growth, with mid-to-long-term performance likely to exceed expectations [1] - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted range of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 87% to 98% [1] - The growth is driven by the demand for AI-related products and the structural upgrade in high-speed materials [6] - The company is positioned well in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry, with expectations of continued price increases and strong demand from major clients [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 16.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 56.29 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36% [1][13] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1.27 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.50 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][13] - The company's net profit is forecasted to rise from 1.16 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.96 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth outlook [1][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 137.4 in 2023 to 20.1 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [14] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its high-performance CCL production capacity, with a planned investment of 4.5 billion yuan [6] - The demand for AI PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) is expected to continue driving growth, with the company gaining significant market share in high-end products [6] - The report highlights the company's proactive market strategies to address rising raw material costs and enhance profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for February 2026 [6]. Core Insights - The report identifies several companies across different segments of the technology industry, including electronics, communications, computing, and media, suggesting a diversified investment approach [6]. - Key companies recommended include: - Electronics: Dongshan Precision, Lanke Technology - Communications: Wolong Materials, Haige Communications - Computing: Zhongkong Technology, Haiguang Information - Media: Kaiying Network, Giant Network [6]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Dongshan Precision**: Positioned for growth due to AI technology advancements, with a focus on optical communication and PCB sectors. The acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics enhances its market position [9]. - **Lanke Technology**: Expected to benefit from the growth in AI servers and memory interface chips, with a projected increase in DDR5 penetration rates [10]. Communications - **Wolong Materials**: Strong in traditional materials and expanding into new energy products, with significant profit growth expected from 2025 to 2027 [10]. - **Haige Communications**: Focused on commercial aerospace and satellite communication, with anticipated profit recovery post-2025 [10]. Computing - **Zhongkong Technology**: Emphasizes industrial AI transformation, leveraging its self-developed industrial model TPT to enhance customer ROI and operational efficiency [11]. - **Haiguang Information**: A leader in high-end CPUs and DCUs, expected to see significant growth driven by domestic demand for AI computing [12]. Media - **Kaiying Network**: Anticipates new game launches in 2026, with a strong pipeline of products expected to drive revenue growth [13]. - **Giant Network**: Positive performance from existing games and new releases, with ongoing AI integration in gaming expected to enhance user engagement [13]. Financial Projections - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the recommended companies, indicating expected growth in profitability from 2024 to 2027 [14].

鹏鼎控股：根据我们从上游核心CCL厂商跟踪情况来看，公司拿料较25年底有较大幅度增长（从数百张/月到数千 张/月），判断已经不再是非常早期的打样阶段，有望很快进入批量阶段，乃至较好的份额展望（Computetray）。 公司2025年以来大幅扩张AI PCB产能，淮安和泰国分别规划了80、43亿投资，产能储备有望突破百亿，随着客户 验证顺利推进，AIPCB弹性巨大。 公司主业消费电子业务1000-150 鹏鼎控股：根据我们从上游核心CCL厂商跟踪情况来看，公司拿料较25年底有较大幅度增长（从数百张/月到数千 张/月），判断已经不再是非常早期的打样阶段，有望很快进入批量阶段，乃至较好的份额展望（Computetray）。 公司2025年以来大幅扩张AI PCB产能，淮安和泰国分别规划了80、43亿投资，产能储备有望突破百亿，随着客户 验证顺利推进，AIPCB弹性巨大。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.16 to 4.56 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 260.4% to 295.0% [1]. - The company has achieved large-scale production of several high-end products in key areas such as AI computing, data centers, and high-performance computing, leading to a significant upgrade in product structure towards high-value and high-technical complexity [1]. - The Q4 earnings forecast is below market expectations, with a net profit of 0.92 to 1.32 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 186.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI revolution, with a focus on high-end demand from core customers in AI computing [5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company expects total revenue of 19.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 83% [6]. - The projected net profit for 2026 is 8.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 85% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 5.01 yuan in 2025, 9.27 yuan in 2026, and 15.52 yuan in 2027 [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 56.2 in 2025, 30.3 in 2026, and 18.1 in 2027 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of major international clients such as NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Tesla, Microsoft, Bosch, Amazon, Google, and Delta [5]. - The company is accelerating the construction and release of AI computing capacity in domestic and overseas locations, including Huizhou, Vietnam, and Thailand, to meet the urgent demand from downstream customers [5]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in manufacturing technology for high-layer boards, supporting advanced product demands in AI server acceleration cards and ultra-high-speed transmission boards [5].

Core Viewpoint - The convergence of self-controllability and AI is expected to drive significant performance in related sectors in 2025, with this trend likely to strengthen further in 2026, making "self-controllability and AI computing power" a dominant theme in the electronics industry throughout the year [2][23]. Investment Theme 1: Focus on Domestic Computing Power and Semiconductor Equipment - Domestic computing power is anticipated to transition from point breakthroughs to systematic reconstruction by 2026, driven by increased overseas restrictions and urgent domestic demand, with market share for local manufacturers expected to rise from 30-40% currently to 60-70% by 2030 [4][25]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for domestic computing power is projected to grow from over $13 billion in 2025 to over $180 billion by 2030 [4][25]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from a dual drive of wafer fab expansion and accelerated localization, with domestic equipment procurement rates estimated to rise from 18% in 2022 to 40% by 2026 [6][27]. Investment Theme 2: High Growth Certainty in AI PCB and Storage Sectors - The PCB sector is viewed as a critical upgrade point for AI chips, with strong demand for computing power expected to drive significant growth in 2026-2027 [9][30]. - AI storage is entering a super cycle driven by AI demand, with mainstream storage prices expected to rise significantly, maintaining a seller's market through at least the end of 2026 [11][32]. Investment Theme 3: Consumer Electronics Reversal and Edge AI Opportunities - The consumer electronics sector is expected to experience a reversal influenced by storage price increases and shortages, with potential stock price turning points anticipated in Q2 2026 [16][37]. - Innovations in AI smartphones, AI/AR glasses, and other AIoT applications are highlighted as key areas of focus [16][37].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the synergy between self-controllable technology and AI will drive significant performance in related sectors by 2025, with expectations for further strengthening in 2026. The focus will be on domestic computing power and semiconductor equipment, alongside a potential turnaround opportunity in consumer electronics by Q2 2026 [1]. Investment Theme 1: Domestic Computing Power and Semiconductor Equipment - Domestic computing power is expected to transition from point breakthroughs to systematic reconstruction by 2026, driven by increased local demand and intensified overseas restrictions. The market share of domestic manufacturers is projected to rise from 30-40% currently to 60-70% by 2030, with the total addressable market (TAM) for domestic computing power anticipated to grow from over $13 billion in 2025 to over $180 billion by 2030 [1]. - The expansion of domestic wafer fabs is being driven by the dual forces of increased production capacity and accelerated localization. The domestic equipment procurement rate is estimated to rise from 18% in 2022 to 25% in 2023, and further to over 30% by 2025, with expectations of reaching 40% by 2026 [4][5]. Investment Theme 2: High Growth in AI-Driven PCB and Storage Sectors - The PCB sector is expected to benefit from the demand for AI computing power, with significant growth anticipated in 2026-2027. The need for high-speed transmission and interconnectivity in AI chips will drive the upgrade of PCB technology, enhancing its value [16]. - The storage sector is entering a super cycle driven by AI demand, with prices for mainstream storage products expected to rise significantly. The visibility of shortages is high, and prices for DRAM and NAND are projected to continue increasing through the first half of 2026 [23]. Investment Theme 3: Consumer Electronics and Edge AI Opportunities - The consumer electronics sector is currently facing challenges due to storage price increases and shortages, but a potential turnaround is anticipated in Q2 2026. Innovations in AI smartphones, AI/AR glasses, and other AIoT products are expected to drive growth [30].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for AI PCB and CCL, with projections for AI PCB increasing from $17.4 billion to $26.6 billion and CCL from $8 billion to $18.3 billion by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 140% and 178% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The growth is attributed to structural changes driven by NVIDIA's new architecture (VR200/300), which replaces traditional cabling with more complex PCB/CCL components, improving cost structures and increasing the value of PCBs [1][2] - The demand for new mid-boards and back-boards is expected to surge in the second half of 2026 and 2027, leading to a multiplicative increase in PCB/CCL value per GPU [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The transition to more complex PCBs is creating a "cleaning" effect in the industry, where only top manufacturers capable of handling lower yield challenges will dominate the market, as production yields are projected to decline from 73% in 2025 to 65% and 62% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][3] - The GPU-related PCB/CCL market is expected to grow nearly tenfold in two years, while the ASIC market is also projected to double, despite increased competition among PCB suppliers [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains "buy" ratings for key Taiwanese suppliers such as TSMC, GCE, and TUC, raising target prices across the board, indicating that these companies are positioned to be the biggest winners in the ongoing AI infrastructure boom [3]