下游 AI 供应链与上游电子布材料更新 20250824 摘要 AI 算力需求激增，微软和谷歌等公司的数据显示算力需求高速增长，推 动 AI 投资逻辑完善。四大云厂商预计在 2026 年资本开支达 4,700 亿美 元，全球总资本开支预计 2027 年达 1 万亿美元，同比增速约 30%，欧 洲和中东主权 AI 投资亦显著。 英伟达 ASIC 需求强劲，预计 2026 年出货量达 100 万片，2027 年达 140-150 万片。若英伟达 2026 年营收达 3,000 亿美元，净利润率 55%，则净利润达 1,650 亿美元，对应市值目标约 5 万亿美元。博通等 ASIC 厂商亦受益，预计收入 800 多亿，净利润 400 多亿，对应市值目 标约 1.6 万亿。 AI PCB 市场需求旺盛，预计 2026 年达 700 亿人民币，供给约 600 多 亿人民币，市场紧缺。单 GPU 的 PCB 价值量在 200-350 美元之间。 ASIC 芯片数量增加带动 PCB 需求增长，交换机端口升级至 1.6T，价值 提升约 9 倍。 正交背板技术是 AI PCB 市场未来发展重点，采用马九树脂材料、Q 布 和五代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in prices of various chemical products and industrial materials is driven by strong market demand, particularly from the AI sector, leading to significant growth in the PCB industry and related companies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The PCB industry has seen a remarkable increase in market capitalization, with companies like Shenghong Technology surpassing 200 billion yuan and several others exceeding 100 billion yuan [1][9]. - The surge in stock prices for PCB-related companies has been notable, with 18 A-share PCB concept stocks increasing by over 100% since the beginning of the year [1][9]. Group 2: Company Performance - Major PCB companies reported strong performance in their semi-annual reports, with Shengyi Electronics achieving a revenue increase of 91% and a net profit increase of 452.11% [5][7]. - Other companies in the PCB supply chain, such as Tongguan Copper Foil and Heli Tai, also reported significant revenue and profit growth, with Tongguan Copper Foil's net profit increasing by 159.47% [3][9]. Group 3: Price Trends and Supply Chain Issues - The price of PCB products has been rising due to supply shortages of key materials like glass fiber cloth, which is critical for PCB manufacturing [12][14]. - The demand for AI-related PCBs is particularly strong, with industry experts indicating that this demand will support price increases until at least the end of Q4 [3][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global PCB market is projected to grow, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029, driven by sectors such as AI servers and data centers [17]. - Companies are actively expanding production capacities to meet the growing demand, with Shengyi Electronics planning to invest approximately 1.9 billion yuan in new production facilities [17][19].

Summary of AI PCB Industry and Related Companies Industry Overview - The AI PCB market is expected to exceed $10 billion by 2026 and reach over $13 billion by 2027, driven primarily by the surge in demand for ASICs and switches, as well as the application of NVIDIA's Rubin series products [1][2][4]. Key Companies and Market Dynamics - **High-Speed Copper Clad Laminate (CCL)**: NVIDIA's cabinets and ASIC solutions primarily utilize the Ma 8 CCL, with the next-generation Ma 9 CCL expected to triple the value per unit in 1.6T switches. Companies like Shengyi Technology and Nanya New Material are poised to expand their market share [1][5]. - **PCB Market Leaders**: Companies such as Shenzhen Circuits, Huitian Technology, and Pegatron hold significant market shares in the ASIC and switch PCB markets. Pegatron stands out for its mSAP technology, while Shengyi Technology and Nanya New Material excel in high-speed CCL [1][6][9]. - **Profit Elasticity**: High-speed CCL companies exhibit substantial profit elasticity. Shengyi Technology's monthly production capacity is 1 million units, with a potential annual revenue of approximately 20 billion RMB, indicating significant profit potential [7]. Price Trends and Future Expectations - **Ordinary CCL Pricing**: Prices for ordinary CCL (FR4) rose by 5% to 10% from March to May but fell in June due to decreased demand. However, a price increase of 7% to 8% was announced by secondary companies in early August, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases due to reduced supply from leading companies shifting capacity to high-speed boards and increased AI PCB demand [8][9]. Technological Developments - **PCB Technology Trends**: The industry is witnessing a shift from 32-layer to 36-layer and above high-multilayer PCBs, with HDI boards transitioning from 5-stage to 7-stage enhancements. The copper foil sector is also recovering, with high-frequency ultra-low profile (HZLP) copper foil being applied in high-end AI servers [3][33]. Electronic Fabric Market - The electronic fabric market is transitioning from traditional fiberglass to quartz fabric, which is essential for high-frequency applications. Companies like Zhongyi Technology are advancing in this space, with plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 20 million meters by 2030 [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - **Key Players**: In the AI PCB sector, Shenzhen Circuits, Huitian Technology, and Pegatron are recommended for their strong HDI technology. Shengyi Technology and Nanya New Material are favored in the high-speed CCL domain due to their established supply chains and production capacities [6][9]. - **Quartz Fabric Development**: Zhongyi Technology is a leading player in quartz electronic fabric, with significant advancements in product capabilities and production capacity [11][12]. Conclusion - The AI PCB industry is on a growth trajectory, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for high-performance materials. Key players are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a focus on expanding production capacities and enhancing product offerings to meet the evolving market needs [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][33].

Summary of Shennan Circuits Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuits (002916.SZ) - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) manufacturing, with a focus on AI applications Key Points and Arguments 1. **AI PCB Demand**: There is ongoing strength in demand for AI PCBs, which is expected to support resilient pricing and margins despite rising costs of raw materials such as CCL, gold-related chemicals, and glass fiber [1][2][4] 2. **Pricing and Margins**: The company is anticipated to experience slower price erosion than normal, leading to resilient margins. This is attributed to tight supply conditions in high-end PCBs for AI servers and networking [2][4] 3. **Revenue Estimates**: Revenue estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E have been revised slightly upward by 0% to 2%, reflecting a more resilient pricing outlook [8] 4. **Target Price Update**: The 12-month target price has been revised up to Rmb150 from Rmb132, based on a 29x P/E ratio for 2026E, aligning with the company's historical average [4][12] 5. **Valuation**: Shennan Circuits is currently trading at approximately 28x/23x P/E for 2026E/2027E, which is considered undemanding compared to its historical average of 29x [3][11] 6. **Market Position**: The company is viewed as a key beneficiary of China's domestic AI infrastructure investments, with expectations for robust revenue and net profit growth as local equipment vendors increase their server and networking shipments [11] Additional Important Content 1. **Risks**: Key downside risks include weaker demand in datacom/AI PCBs, geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains, competitive pricing pressures, and potential deterioration in 5G demand [13] 2. **Industry Context**: The overall PCB industry in China has seen strong share price rallies driven by AI demand, contributing to valuation recovery [3] 3. **Financial Metrics**: The revised net profit estimates for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E have been increased by 1% to 3%, reflecting the anticipated slower price erosion [8] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Shennan Circuits, highlighting its market position, financial outlook, and associated risks.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.375 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 24.75%. In the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached 8.288 billion yuan, up 28.72% year-over-year and 2.49% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was 1.233 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 57.22%, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.149 billion yuan, up 51.90% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, particularly in Thailand and Taiwan, to meet the growing demand in AI servers and automotive electronics [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.28% in Q2 2025, an increase of 4.81 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 8.93%, up 4.47 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 4.277 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-over-year improvement of 53.29% [2]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from communication boards, consumer electronics, and automotive/server boards showed significant growth, with automotive and server boards increasing by 87.42% and 261.27% year-over-year, respectively [2][3]. - The company is focusing on high-end AI products, with plans to increase capital expenditures to over 30 billion New Taiwan dollars in the next two years, targeting HDI and HLC products [3][4]. Market Positioning - The company is strategically positioning itself in high-growth sectors such as AI servers, optical communications, and automotive electronics, with ongoing collaborations for next-generation products [4][3]. - The company has developed advanced technologies for flexible printed circuits (FPC) and low-orbit satellite antennas, aiming to capture future market opportunities in satellite internet and robotics [4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Taiwan PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry, particularly companies TUC, EMC, GCE, and ZDT - There is a notable acceleration in capital expenditures (CAPEX) due to increasing demand for AI infrastructure investments Key Points and Arguments Capacity Expansion and Demand - TUC, EMC, GCE, and ZDT have announced new capacity expansion plans to meet the rising demand for AI infrastructure [1][4] - TUC's Thailand plant will see a capacity increase of 300k sheets per month by May/June 2026, with potential for further expansion of 1.0-1.2 million sheets per month [6][10] - ZDT plans to invest NT$30 billion annually in CAPEX for 2025/26, focusing on AI HDI products [10] - Overall capacity for the industry is expected to increase by 15% in both 2025 and 2026 [10] Profitability and ASP Trends - High-quality AI server PCB/CCL suppliers are expected to maintain good profitability due to high average selling prices (ASP) and increasing demand [2] - The gross margin for high-end CCL is projected to rise from 20-25% in M6 grade to 40-50% in M7/8 generation [2] - GCE's July financial performance showed a pre-tax margin of 23.25% and a net margin of 15.3%, exceeding both Goldman Sachs estimates and Bloomberg consensus [8][9] Earnings Revisions and Target Price Adjustments - Target prices for EMC, TUC, and GCE have been revised upwards to NT$1,400, NT$375, and NT$550 respectively, reflecting improved industry ASP and profitability outlook [3][22][27] - EMC's earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been increased by 1/4/4% due to better demand outlook and ASP growth [13] - TUC's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised down by 4% due to unfavorable FX impacts, but 2026/27 estimates have been increased by 1% [19][20] - GCE's earnings estimates for 2025/26/27 have been revised up by 3/3/2% based on proactive industry demand and ASP growth [25][26] Financial Performance Highlights - GCE's July revenue was NT$5.646 billion, which is 33% of Goldman Sachs' estimate for Q3, indicating strong performance [9] - TUC's 2Q25 results showed a net income of NT$652 million, which was 15% lower than estimates due to FX impacts [11][12] Valuation Metrics - The target PE multiple for EMC has been increased to 22x for 4Q25-3Q26E, aligning with the AI component industry upcycle average valuation [15][16] - TUC's target PE multiple has been adjusted to 18x for 4Q25-3Q26E, reflecting a higher valuation compared to the past three years [22] - GCE's target PE multiple has been revised to 19x for 4Q25-3Q26E, indicating a strong valuation relative to its historical performance [27] Additional Important Insights - The industry is experiencing a significant shift towards higher quality and more complex PCB/CCL products, driven by advancements in AI technology [2] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth and profitability in the coming years [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 16.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and a net profit of 1.23 billion, up 57.2% year-on-year, indicating robust growth driven by product structure optimization and improved operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, and a net profit of 745 million, up 159.6% year-on-year, reflecting significant profitability improvements [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 20.3%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 8.9%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Group 2: Business Structure Analysis - Revenue from communication boards was 10.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a gross margin of 16.0% [2]. - Revenue from consumer electronics and computer boards was 5.17 billion, up 31.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.5% [2]. - Revenue from automotive and server applications reached 810 million, a remarkable increase of 87.4% year-on-year, driven by new product certifications and collaborations [2]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - The company has increased its capital expenditure (Capex) for AI PCB to over 30 billion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 7-9 billion RMB) for 2025-2026, with nearly 50% allocated to expanding high-end HDI and HLC production capacity [3][11]. - The company is actively expanding its production capabilities in Thailand and Kaohsiung, with plans for new production lines for ultra-high-layer products [3][11]. Group 4: Long-term Growth Drivers - The company anticipates a significant growth cycle from 2025 to 2027, driven by innovations in AI-related products such as AI smartphones, foldable devices, and AI glasses [4][20]. - The demand for high-end AI products is expected to drive a new round of capital expenditure expansion, with a focus on GPU/ASIC terminal customers [4][20].

中金研报称，海外算力需求高企，驱动PCB量价齐升，市场规模迅速扩容，我们预计2025/2026年AI PCB市场规模有望达56/100亿美元。尽管国内PCB厂商正加速扩产，我们认为高端产能释放效率仍将滞 后于需求增速，供需缺口仍将持续存在，此外新工艺迭代升级有望带来全新的市场需求增量。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

人民财讯8月12日电，中金公司（601995）研报认为，海外算力需求高企，驱动PCB量价齐升，市场规 模迅速扩容，预计2025/2026年AI PCB市场规模有望达56/100亿美元。尽管国内PCB厂商正加速扩产， 研报认为高端产能释放效率仍将滞后于需求增速，供需缺口仍将持续存在，此外新工艺迭代升级有望带 来全新的市场需求增量。未来AI对PCB工艺技术路径有望持续迭代，其体现方式包括结构融合 (CoWoP、载板化)、功能升级(正交背板替代铜连接)及材料突破(M9、PTFE、石英布等)。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the North American cloud service providers (CSPs) and the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly focusing on the demand for computing power driven by major tech companies like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon [1][2][4][5][13]. Key Points and Arguments Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies have significantly increased their capital expenditure forecasts for data centers and cloud infrastructure, indicating a sustained demand for computing power. Amazon's expected capital expenditure for the year is projected to reach between $110 billion and $120 billion [1][4]. - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion, with further increases expected in 2026 [2]. - Meta's capital expenditure for 2025 is anticipated to be between $66 billion and $72 billion, with a confirmation of an additional $30 billion increase in 2026 [2]. - Microsoft reported a capital expenditure of $24.2 billion for the quarter, with expectations to exceed $30 billion in Q1 2026 [2]. PCB Companies Performance - Core PCB companies are experiencing a tight supply-demand situation, leading to significant stock price increases, reflecting market confidence in the growth of computing power demand [5][6]. - Key recommended PCB companies include: - **沪电 (Hui Dian)**: Expected to triple its output value, with a market capitalization potential of $150 billion to $200 billion, driven by major clients like Google, AWS, Meta, and OpenAI [6][7]. - **鹏鼎 (Peng Ding)**: Benefiting from Apple's hardboard business and flexible computing PCB business, with significant capacity expansion plans [6][7]. - **生益科技 (Sheng Yi Technology)**: Capable of switching over 50% of its capacity to AI-related products, with a strong presence in the North American market [6][7]. Future Outlook - The PCB industry is expected to see explosive growth in computing power demand in 2026, leading to increased tension in the supply chain [5][13]. - 生益电子 (Sheng Yi Electronics) is increasing its exposure in the ASIC field, with significant revenue contributions expected from clients like AWS, Google, and Meta [3][8]. - 深南电路 (Shen Nan Circuit) is positioned to enter the GPU and ASIC supply chains, with promising developments in new technology areas [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - The domestic PCB industry is on an upward trend, with CSP manufacturers continuously raising their capital expenditure expectations, positioning domestic PCB companies as global leaders in technology and capacity expansion [13]. - The anticipated shipment volume of NVIDIA GPU chips is expected to reach 4.5 to 5 million units by 2025, indicating robust growth in the semiconductor sector [14]. - The ASIC server supply chain is primarily dominated by Google and AWS, with Meta expected to increase its involvement starting in 2026 [16]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a strong growth trajectory for the cloud computing and PCB industries, driven by increased capital expenditures from major tech companies and a tightening supply-demand balance in the PCB market. The outlook for key players in the PCB sector appears promising, with significant opportunities arising from the growing demand for AI and computing power.