Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) as a leading global AI PCB manufacturer, emphasizing its deep engagement with top GPU and ASIC clients [15][16][18] - The company has achieved significant advancements in HDI technology, being one of the first to mass-produce 6-layer 24-layer HDI products and is actively developing next-generation 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology [16] - Shenghong Technology is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with ongoing projects in Thailand and Vietnam, and is enhancing its collaboration with major clients to align with their R&D and production schedules [17] Group 2: Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for Shenghong Technology is projected to reach 370 billion and 599 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with expected net profits of 120 billion and 197 billion yuan [18] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing value of PCBs in AI servers, which will further strengthen its competitive position in the market [16][18] Group 3: Industry Context - The report notes that the AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments from major players like Google, which has increased its capital expenditure guidance for the year [15] - The demand for advanced PCB technology is rising in line with the growth of AI applications, positioning Shenghong Technology favorably within this expanding market [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in AI PCB manufacturing, leveraging significant opportunities from the AI wave and deepening partnerships with major GPU and ASIC clients [1][4]. - The company has achieved technological advancements in HDI and high-layer PCBs, with capabilities to produce 6-stage 24-layer HDI products and ongoing development for next-generation technologies [2]. - The expansion of production capacity is on track, with overseas facilities in Thailand and Vietnam progressing as planned, and domestic projects also advancing [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 37 billion yuan in 2026 and 59.9 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit estimates of 12 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan for the same years respectively [4][6]. - The company expects significant growth rates, with a revenue growth of 87.5% in 2025 and 84% in 2026 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 5.76 yuan in 2025 to 22.68 yuan in 2027 [6]. Production and Client Engagement - The company is enhancing its production capabilities and customer engagement by participating in key projects, allowing for early involvement in client R&D and product development [3]. - The company is focusing on long-term planning with clients, aligning its production and technology strategies with their future needs [3].

20 November 2025 | 8:24PM HKT Equity Research Shennan Circuits (002916.SZ) AI PCB in expansion with capacity ramp-up; TP raised to Rmb254, Buy 002916.SZ 12m Price Target: Rmb254.00 Price: Rmb199.96 Upside: 27.0% We are constructive on Shennan Circuits as an AI PCB beneficiary and raise our target price by c.70% to Rmb254 with higher earnings estimates (NI +44% CAGR in 2025-27E) and target PE multiple, driven by (1) expansion from telecom to AI PCB, targeting compute/ networking demand and riding on the acce ...

Summary of Key Takeaways from the China Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and AI software development - **Companies Discussed**: Victory Giant (VGT), Shennan Circuits, Kingsoft Office, Kingdee Victory Giant (VGT) Demand and Growth Outlook - Management maintains a positive outlook on demand for AI PCBs, despite a temporary moderation in earnings growth in 3Q25 due to a large AI customer's product transition [2][4] - Anticipated continued expansion of Gross Profit Margin (GPM) in 2026 driven by higher contributions from AI PCBs and product upgrades from AI customers [2] Capacity Expansion Plans - VGT is on track to enhance its HDI (High Density Interconnect) and HLC (High Layer Count) capacities, primarily in Huizhou this year, with expansions planned in Thailand and Vietnam next year [3] - Current HDI capacity is valued at approximately CNY 7-9 billion, HLC capacity at over CNY 9 billion, with total capacity projected to reach CNY 35 billion by the end of 2025, CNY 80-90 billion by 2026, and CNY 100-120 billion+ by 2027 [3] Revenue Contribution and Customer Development - AI PCBs currently account for about 50% of VGT's revenue, with consumer electronics and automotive electronics each contributing around 15% [4] - VGT is the largest AI PCB supplier, holding approximately 50% wallet share with a major AI customer, and expects a significant order from a large CSP (Cloud Service Provider) exceeding CNY 10 billion for 2026 [4] Competitive Advantages - VGT's strong management and execution have resulted in an industry-leading yield rate, allowing for faster production ramp-up compared to competitors [5] Shennan Circuits Supply Constraints and Revenue Contribution - The PCB supply remains constrained, with communication contributing around 40% of PCB sector revenue, predominantly from fixed-line communication [6] - AI is expected to contribute roughly 30% of PCB revenue [6] IC Substrate Business Update - Memory customers contributed approximately 40% of revenue for BT-based substrates in 3Q25, with strong growth momentum [7] - The company is experiencing stable demand for ABF-based IC substrates, with plans to narrow losses in the coming years [7] Capacity Expansion Plans - Supply for AI PCB business is constrained as the company ramps up existing factories in Thailand and Jiangsu, with planned capacities in Shenzhen, Wuxi, and Guangzhou [8] Price Hikes - Both PCB and substrate products are facing cost pressures due to upstream material price hikes, and the company is negotiating with CCL suppliers to adjust prices [10] Kingsoft Office AI User Growth - The company's focus has shifted to AI user growth, with monthly active users increasing from approximately 20 million at the beginning of 2025 to nearly 50 million by 3Q25 [11] - The launch of AI 3.0 in July has been promoted to around 50 million users, with significant growth potential within its ~600 million user base [11] Growth Outlook - Management anticipates a 10%+ revenue CAGR for the Consumer business from FY25-30E, with AI users expected to exceed 100 million next year [12] - The enterprise business (WPS 365) is projected to deliver a 30% revenue CAGR over FY25-30E, competing in a CNY 400-500 billion market [12] On-Premise Software Business - Strong demand in 3Q25 is expected to continue into 2026, driven by government initiatives for domestic substitution of PC and software products [13] Kingdee Earnings Turnaround - Kingdee is on track for an earnings turnaround in FY25, targeting low-teens year-on-year revenue growth, with subscription revenue growth around 20% year-on-year [14] AI Monetization Efforts - The "Kingdee Cloud" brand has been upgraded to "Kingdee AI," with plans for deeper integration of AI agents into cloud offerings [14] Conclusion - The technology sector, particularly in PCB and AI software, shows promising growth potential with significant capacity expansions and increasing revenue contributions from AI-related products. Companies like VGT, Shennan Circuits, Kingsoft Office, and Kingdee are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, although they face challenges such as supply constraints and rising material costs.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 312.05 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the AI PCB boom and proactive capacity expansion [3][5]. - The report projects substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 20.95 billion, RMB 35.34 billion, and RMB 57.36 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of RMB 5.14 billion, RMB 12.04 billion, and RMB 18.03 billion for the same years [5][7]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end PCB production and is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 141.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83.40%, and a net profit of RMB 32.45 billion, up 324.38% year-on-year [8]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 35.85%, an increase of 14.30 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 95.2% in 2025, followed by 68.7% in 2026 and 62.3% in 2027 [7][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are RMB 5.91, RMB 13.83, and RMB 20.71 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant growth [5][11]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively investing in advanced manufacturing equipment and expanding its production capacity, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, to meet the growing demand for high-end PCBs [8]. - The expansion plans are progressing smoothly, with the company maintaining an industry-leading pace in capacity expansion [8].

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is expected to have significant investment opportunities in the technology innovation sector by 2026, with structural opportunities arising from both domestic demand recovery and high export demand [2][5]. Group 1: Technology Innovation and AI Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure is expected to benefit from high capital expenditure and rapid technological iterations, leading to new opportunities in the mechanical sector. Overseas capital expenditure for computing power is exceeding expectations, driving demand for PCB equipment and AIDC [2][5]. - The next generation of chips, such as Rubin, may increase processing requirements for PCB, cold plates, and quick connectors, while also promoting new technologies like micro-channel liquid cooling, enhancing the value of equipment and consumables [2][5]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to accelerate by 2026, with a focus on leading companies expanding production. The period from 2022 to 2025 is seen as a transition from prototype to small-scale engineering, with 2026 potentially marking the year of mass production for Tesla [7]. - Attention should be given to the performance upgrades of domestic humanoid robots and the rapid development of application scenarios [7]. Group 3: Export Chain - The export chain should focus on sectors with global competitiveness, such as engineering machinery, hardware tools, motorcycles, and oil service equipment, which are expected to benefit from internationalization and reforms [3][12]. - The engineering machinery sector is seeing significant growth in exports, particularly in the U.S. due to the recent interest rate cuts, which are likely to boost demand [11]. Group 4: Specialized Equipment - Specialized equipment sectors are expected to experience turning points and technological changes, with a focus on areas like solid-state batteries and nuclear fusion, as well as segments like 3C equipment and coal machinery that are showing signs of recovery [3][15]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to see a growth spurt, with domestic capital expenditure expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [16]. Group 5: General Cyclical Opportunities - The general cyclical sector is expected to see a bottoming out, with structural opportunities emerging in areas like machine tools, injection molding machines, and industrial gases, as demand recovers [13][14]. - The demand for industrial gases is expected to improve, although there may still be pressure on gas prices [14]. Group 6: 3C Automation Equipment - The 3C automation equipment sector is anticipated to enter a hardware innovation phase in 2026, driven by new product trends such as foldable screens and AI glasses [17].

Key Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the macroeconomic environment, with manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, indicating a contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 50.1% [5][6] - The semiconductor industry shows promising growth, particularly for companies like Jinghe Integrated, which reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven by new product developments [9][10] - The defense and aerospace sector, represented by companies like Guangwei Composite, experienced a revenue increase of 4.4% year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 32.55% [18][19] Macroeconomic Overview - October's PMI data reflects a significant impact from holiday scheduling and international trade uncertainties, leading to weaker manufacturing supply and demand [5][6] - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, while new orders also declined [5][6] - Non-manufacturing sectors showed slight improvement, with construction activity indicating a positive trend [5][6] Semiconductor Industry - Jinghe Integrated's Q3 2025 results show a revenue of 8.13 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.9% [10] - The company is actively developing OLED DDIC, CIS, automotive-grade chips, and PMICs, with a focus on process upgrades [9][10] - The transition to 4F2+CBA architecture in DRAM is expected to create outsourcing opportunities for peripheral circuits [12] Defense and Aerospace Sector - Guangwei Composite reported total revenue of 1.986 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 4.4% increase, but net profit fell by 32.55% [18][19] - The company’s third-quarter revenue was 785 million yuan, reflecting a 5.24% year-on-year increase and a 23.58% quarter-on-quarter increase [18][19] - The energy new materials segment showed rapid growth, with a 58.95% increase in revenue, while the fiber expansion segment saw a decline [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the AI PCB and storage sectors, with a positive outlook for the packaging substrate market [3][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic investments in high-end PCB capacity and the expected benefits from rising BT substrate prices due to material supply constraints [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 167.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.39%, and a net profit of RMB 23.26 billion, up 56.30% year-on-year [8]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 28.20%, an increase of 2.30 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 230.02 billion, RMB 321.10 billion, and RMB 419.23 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The expected net profits for the same years are RMB 33.41 billion, RMB 58.16 billion, and RMB 76.43 billion, respectively [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of RMB 5.01, RMB 8.72, and RMB 11.46 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 46.6, 26.8, and 20.4 [5][7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 155.64 billion [3]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in demand for high-speed PCBs in communication and data center sectors, particularly for products related to AI and high-performance computing [8]. - The tightening supply of T-Glass fiberglass materials is expected to lead to price increases for BT substrates, benefiting the company's operations [8].

Summary of Victory Giant (300476.SZ) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Victory Giant (VGT) - **Ticker**: 300476.SZ - **Sector**: Technology - **Date of Report**: 27 October 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **Revenue**: CNY 5.1 billion, up 79% year-on-year (y-y) and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter (q-q) [1][4] - **Earnings**: CNY 1.1 billion, up 260% y-y but down 9.9% q-q [1][4] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Increased by 12 percentage points (pp) y-y to 35.2%, but decreased by 3.6 pp q-q [1][4] - **Research and Development (R&D) Expense**: Increased by 93% y-y to CNY 254.8 million, contributing to a decline in net margin by 4.2 pp q-q [2][4] Core Insights - **Sequential Growth**: The company achieved sequential top-line growth, but the earnings decline may disappoint investors given the strong market sentiment around AI infrastructure spending [1][2] - **AI PCB Contribution**: The increase in GPM is attributed to higher contributions from AI-related products, specifically High Density Interconnect (HDI) and High Layer Count (HLC) products [1][4] - **Capacity Ramp-Up**: The decline in GPM q-q is likely due to the ramp-up of capacity in overseas production, leading to short-term cost pressures [1][4] Future Outlook - **Proactive R&D Investment**: The significant increase in R&D spending is expected to strengthen the company's position with global AI customers, particularly NVIDIA [2][4] - **Target Price**: The target price remains at CNY 392, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 45x for FY26F EPS of CNY 8.72 [2][3] - **Current Trading**: The stock is currently trading at 39x FY26F EPS [2][3] Risks and Challenges - **Supply Chain Diversification**: Key customers may diversify their supply chains, posing a risk to the company [11] - **Intensified Competition**: Increased competition from peers could impact market share [11] - **Technology Changes**: Innovations such as COWOP may alter the competitive landscape [11] - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Escalating geopolitical issues could pose additional risks [11] Additional Notes - **Analyst Ratings**: The stock is rated as "Buy" with a target price of CNY 392 [3][10] - **Closing Price on Report Date**: CNY 340.32 [3][10]

Core Insights - The company reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 14.117 billion yuan, up 83.40%, and net profit at 3.245 billion yuan, up 324.38% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.95%, but a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.88% in net profit due to factors such as new factory production and production line transitions [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the expected release of AI-related orders and ongoing capacity expansion, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 35.19%, up 12.02 percentage points year-on-year, but down 3.63 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 was 21.66%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.91 percentage points, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.25 percentage points [1] - The revised net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.790 billion, 8.040 billion, and 10.317 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.50, 9.24, and 11.85 yuan [1] Capacity Expansion - As of the end of Q3, the company's construction projects totaled 3.548 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1281% from the beginning of the year [2] - The company is actively expanding production capacity in its facilities in Huizhou, Thailand, and Vietnam, with the Thailand factory's first phase upgrade completed in March and production commenced [2] - The construction of the Vietnam factory, which broke ground in March, is progressing as planned [3] Technological Advancements - The company possesses advanced technical capabilities in high-layer PCB and HDI technology, which positions it well for future product iterations in the AI sector [3] - The company is leading in the global market share for AI-related products, including AI power cards and data center switches, and is actively pursuing the development of next-generation HDI technology [3]